Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “@Frankfrancesco: #GameOfTones So Abbott ambushed Qunetin Bryce, nice work.
    Mr Republic – where the hell are you @TurnbullMalcolm?”

  3. I really and truly have never seen twitter like this before. As a distraction worked beautifully but people are waking up !!!!

  4. [Mr Republic – where the hell are you @TurnbullMalcolm?”]

    Peta has his balls in a jar on her desk. Not sure about the rest of him.

  6. daviswh
    We have to get a laugh somewhere, and if Sirabbottt provides who are we to spurn largesse from the tables of the Quality?

  9. Are these dusted-off, re-heated honourifics part of Abbott’s plan to distinguish his ‘people of calibre’ from us oiks & serfs?

  10. The (unwashed) voters of WA will soon get a chance to express their astonishment at this official restoration of the cultural cringe.

    What a truly fatuous excuse for a PM Abbott is proving to be!

  11. “@MikeCarlton01: Whatever you think of Rupert Murdoch, he has always disdained imperial honours. Intrigued to see how News Corpse papers handle this idiocy.”

  13. kevin

    [Sir George Pell – you read it here first!]

    That’s one thing we will be spared. Catholic clergy have their own knighthood orders and they can’t accept British knighthoods.

  14. “@sarahinthesen8: Sir-ving suggestion: take one Lady Rinehart, one Sir Howard and add a Liberal dose of privileged entitlement #NoThanks”

    Using: Lady Sarah of Belair

  16. Lay off Quentin Bryce. You are playing into Abbott’s revenge.

    #auspol Quentin did not have much choice in accepting Dame. She was ambushed, to reject, undignified. This is payback, she has to shut up— grace pettigrew (@broomstick33) March 25, 2014

  20. [I love Australians taking the mickey. Loads of tweeters now putting Dame and Sir in front of names.]

    Whatever our faults, we are among the best at gleefully pricking pomposity and pretension, including in ourselves.

  22. [Whatever you think of Rupert Murdoch, he has always disdained imperial honours. Intrigued to see how News Corpse papers handle this idiocy]

    Rupert has a Knighthood of St Gregory from the Pope.

  24. Tomorrow in Parliament, every member of the Labor Opposition should bring in Coconut Shells, and clap them together whenever Sir PM speaks

  25. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m

    #Essential Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (0) ALP 49 (0) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes now

    #Essential Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 44 (+1) ALP 37 (+1) GRN 9 (0) PUP 4 (0) #auspol

  28. Age of Entitlement over says Hockey

    Only for the great unwashed. The upper crust and IPA types the Age of Entitlement for Me and Me Only is only just beginning…

    Or is it?

  30. davidwh

    [We could have Sir Peter Slipper]

    These will be popular on the Sunshine Coast.

    If you play your cards right Sir ‘X’ of Bribie Island may still be available.

  31. Apparently one in every hundred people on a disability pension, the dole, single mother’s pension, whatever, are going to be be-knighted or be-damed.

  33. Quentin merely has to say to the govt: no, I do not want a knighthood. She was not obliged in any way to accept one.

  34. The ‘sir’ title in and of itself conveys about as much gravitas to me as the title ‘reverend’ does. That is to say, none at all. Just more dull, vaguely reactionary monarchist piffle designed solely to make people with a progressive outlook roll their eyes in exasperation.

    Mission accomplished, Abbott. Congrats I guess.

  35. DavidWH
    He is going to appeal both the conviction and sentence, so the fat lady is not singing just yet. People may still end up with egg on their faces over this affair, and it may not be Thomson.

  36. Oh dear the “campaign” has started

    [Retweeted by grace pettigrew

    Mark Colvin ‏@Colvinius · 5m
    Press release: Federal Attorney General George Brandis tells Ben Fordham former PM John Howard would “absolutely” be worthy of a knighthood.]

  38. davidwh:

    [We could have Sir Peter Slipper Knight of the Round Trip.]

    There’s also a joke somewhere involving Sir Alan Jones and his Water Loo. But I can’t be f**ked. This knighthood thing is total horsesh*t.

  40. This is fun. Since Tony got in the whole country has been on a reverse time-travel adventure. We have done the 1950s, the 1850s and the 16th Century. Right now we are in the 12th Century, readying ourselves for the Dark Ages. I guess we’ll have to draw the line at the ice-age.

  42. poroti

    [Press release: Federal Attorney General George Brandis tells Ben Fordham former PM John Howard would “absolutely” be worthy of a knighthood.]

    Yeah, like has already been said – it’s all window dressing so Little Johnnie can one day be a knight. It’s one of Baldric’s “cunning plans”.

  45. puff – I assume he will get a full “de novo” appeal in the District Court (which means a judge effectively runs the case again, but usually using the transcript). Further, the judge will look at the sentence with entirely fresh eyes. I wouldn’t be too downcast if I was Thompson.

  47. And surely Georgie must nominate Arfur after all didn’t he proclaim him one of “The Great Australians” very recently?

  48. The silly thing about all this is that knighthoods in essence have been replaced by the honour of Companion of the Order of Australia. And they are chosen through something of a merit selection process through the Council of the Order. Mr Abbott might like to think that he’s creating something higher and more eminent, but the very fact that it’s been made in the gift of the PM (which of course only conservative PMs will use) guarantees that these knighthoods will in fact be devalued.

    I guess there will have to be an education program to explain to anyone under the age of 40 what a knighthood actually is.

  49. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 2m

    #Essential Poll Are Aust taxes higher or lower than in other countries: Higher 64 Much the same 21 Lower 8 #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes now

    #Essential Poll How have Aust taxes changed over last 5 years: Increased 65 Much the same 20 Decreased 9 #auspol

    Sir Abbott worst Goverment ever.

  50. Kevin

    [DIOG – Gilroy took one – first knighthood since the reformation.]

    I didn’t know that. I’d read somewhere they couldn’t accept them as the honours are effectively bestowed by the leader of the C of E.

    Still, one in 400 years makes them pretty unusual.

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