Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. The A list wannabes are loosening up the purse strings to donate many shillings to the Liberal Party coffers (cc Royal Honours Secretariat)— Lord Judge 'n Jury (@sprocket___) March 25, 2014

  2. Abbott must be careful not to take us too far back in history. There was a time when females were more powerful than the males.

  3. Essential question on Tax is dodgy, “Last 5 years” means Labor gov mostly, ignoring the current Coalition Party, and past Coalition Party Goverment.

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 23s

    #Essential Poll Do we pay enough taxes to fund NDIS & Gonski: Current taxes enough 47 Increase needed 33 #auspol

  4. I guess there will have to be an education program to explain to anyone under the age of 40 what a knighthood actually is.

    Well, the pleb children are already in line to be edumacated about King and Country and how wonderful it is to be English and our Judeo-Christian heritage (whatever that is).

    Teach them how to respect their knights and dames will fit right in.

  5. Jackol it’s just so absurdly silly I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry so I am just going with hysterical laughter.

  6. [Michelle Grattan ‏@michellegrattan 54m
    Knights/ dames falls into policy category of ”I’m going to do it because I’m PM and I can”.]

  7. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes now

    #Essential Poll Holding referendum on changing Aust flag: Support 31 Oppose 50 #auspol

    Sir Stunt A Lot.

  8. [Abbott must be careful not to take us too far back in history. There was a time when females were more powerful than the males.]

    We’re already there. Peta has more power than the 19 males in Cabinet.

  9. There is only a push in NZ to change their flag not because of the Union Jack, but rather because it’s almost an exact copy of the Australian Flag.

    Besides this one is much better:

  10. The Abbott stuntage over Dames and Kniggits is what a Government with no ideas and no agenda does in its dying last term, oh of course… 😆

  11. Retweeted by R_Chirgwin
    Lady Rioting Peasant ‏@vanbadham 3m

    Dear Tony Abbott, If you wish to redesign Australia into a bloody aristocracy, I personally will start to build the guillotine. X Van

    Agreed.

  12. [Only after they have been Knighted.]

    Do you mean they need a sex change first? Or just a change of gender identity?

  13. [Essential question on Tax is dodgy, “Last 5 years” means Labor gov mostly, ignoring the current Coalition Party, and past Coalition Party Goverment.]

    I wonder what other facts we can conduct polls about.

    Whether the Earth orbits the Sun?

  14. SirRabbott needs to remember Noblesse oblige. First to ride into battle and all that. #CrimeaHereWeCome

  15. Diog

    I’m also as close to 100% sure that Murdoch’s name was presented to the Queen for approval for a knighthood and that she refused it (only time, apparently, she’s used her veto….) — I remember it because it stuck in my mind as one of the reasons I think the Queen’s OK as a person.

  16. I sent Bolt the Dolt an email missive stating that he was a bigoted, racist, ignorant, worthless piece of bacterial slime amongst other adjectives today and framed it along the lines of what ‘might’ happen with the changes outlined by AG Brandis.

    As expected I am yet to receive a response.

    I did state that he is free to sue and I shall enjoy taking him on.

    “Sport you know old boy”

  17. Has Mr Abbott spelt out the process which will apply if a knighthood has to be taken away from one of his chosen ones (along the lines of what happened to Sir Terence Lewis)?

  18. mimhoff

    I think it was very useful asking that question. It reveals how misinformed people are. Rather than reality people believe the shite the Coalition said and the MSM spread. Just as surveys showed people thought the cost of living was going through the roof , Labor’s fault of course, when in reality was it had barely moved.

  19. More proof that “No sir Knighthoods”.

    Retweeted by sir sortius
    Leonie Doyle ‏@leoniedoyle 1h

    “No plans to recommend reinstating knighthoods and damehoods…at this time” pic.twitter.com/sWF42ChP9C

    Note the “At this time” part.

  20. Tony Abbott says that the restoration of knighthoods was ‘an important “gracenote in our national life”‘

    What the F* is a ‘gracenote’? This is all I could find: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracenote

    And it was also the name of an episode of ‘Twilight Zone’.

    Did Abbott just make the term up?

  21. Steve try grace note (two words) which is a musical term sort of referring to adding something to music for ornamental value which is pretty true in this case.

  22. Boerwar

    [Faced with 34 show causes, Dank reckons once again that he is totally innocent, see you in court.

    So James does an interview a couple of days before the first game of the year. He will return. But then, so did Macarthur, over the bodies of around one million filipinos – not that coaching Essendon and smoking a corncob pipe while running the South-west Pacific Command are one and the same thing.]

    Your musings on the Essendon saga are on the money!

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