Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777

    Here ya go.

    [A grace note is a kind of music notation used to denote several kinds of musical ornaments, usually printed smaller to indicate that it is melodically and harmonically nonessential……….A grace note represents an ornament, and distinguishing whether a given singular grace note is to be played as an appoggiatura or acciaccatura ]
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grace_note

  2. ‘grace’

    Make no mistake about it, Abbott has consistently and deliberately sent roman catholic signals to his congregation.

    The Mad Monk is not all that Mad.

  3. Cant wait till the next government abolishes these silly Knighthoods again in 2016.

    Still, good belly laugh for the next 3 years. Arise, Sir Cumference!

    I feel sorry for the awardees who are no doubt too polite to refuse these risible anachronisms.

    #embarassedforTony

  4. Right – I don’t know much about music. Who’d have thought that big, boofy Abbott would choose such a term. Maybe someone chose it for him.

    It was quoted as one word onm the ABC site but that might be one of those ‘sub-editorial errors’ they talk about on media watch.

    So – an unnecessary ornament that sounds pretty (to Monarchists and Menzies-style Anglophiles anyway). Something we don’t need.

  5. [@AuSenate: 2 Income Support Bonus repeal instruments have been disallowed by the #Senate – details to follow]

    Good, Stupid Abbott.

    He could have let $260,000 in expenditure be spent, or lose Millions in revenue, he chose to lose millions of course.

  6. didn’t someone here suggest as a joke abbott would do this?

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-reintroduces-knight-and-dame-honours-for-australians-20140325-35fzo.html

    no doubt so he can give a ‘Sir’ to Howard and all his cronies (David Flint and Alan Jones will he creaming their pants – individually, I mean, not each others….) and a ‘Dame’ to Gina. and probably a ‘Lord’ to Monkton so he’s not a fraud on that front at least.

    abbott is the anti-whitlam. no-fault divorce and the family court will be next. maybe he’ll axe the federal high and supreme courts and go back to the Privy Council?

    I saw a great banner at the march in march about the abbott government – it said “I’m currently experiencing life at several WTFs per hour”. I’m getting the T-shirt.

  7. Boerwar

    [So will Tania talk to the Essendon board or not on Wednesday?

    If I were on the EFC Board I would refuse to talk to Ms Hird unless she is willing to sign a statutory statement accusing Demetriou and Evans of criminal conduct. Barring that, it is not as if she injected anyone with anything illegal or played in the forward pocket or anything like that, so why should they talk to her at all?]

    Btw this would be a briliant move if the EFC board did this

  8. Of course, the Order of Australia has a defined nomination process. Not so, apparently, for these knighthoods. I would like to therefore suggest, constructively, that Bludgers might wish to engage in a write in campaign to the PM and local members nominating deserving persons. This could be in the spirit of the Facebook tribute page to Ms Mirabella which gained such salience before the election. Dame Kathy Jackson springs to mind. Or judges just appointed as Royal Commissioners, where a knighthood might help to fortify the predetermination of their findings. It will create more work in the MPs’ offices if the nominations are capable of being read as serious, rather than being obviously satirical. I’m sure you all get the idea.

  9. sf

    [nd probably a ‘Lord’ to Monkton ]

    Monckton actually is a UK one but not entitled to sit in the House of Lords. That’s why they go after him when he uses the House of Lords crest.

  10. [ More evidence the essential respondent pool is made up of the utterly clueless. ]

    Perhaps a bit harsh, but i would be interested to know the rate at which the Essential respondent pool changes? The whole “bias to stability” thing with Essential would indicate to me that it doesn’t much.

  11. [More evidence the essential respondent pool is made up of the utterly clueless. ]
    I think you will find it reflects the feeling of the population. They’ve been fed the bullshit for years and have come to believe it.

  12. And of course the knighthoods basically automatically given to GGs means that our GGs will now be “ornamented” in an obvious and basically unavoidable way as directly being subjects of Her Maj, which is presumably the point. Instead of the GG being in practical terms our Australian head of state, they will be clearly marked as the representatives of the royal family.

    Ick ick ick.

    Fark you Abbott.

    I don’t know why this has me so incensed. It’s trivial pointless stuff that will probably (hopefully) be corrected in 3 years’ time. Compared with what the government is doing on the environment or their war on workers or their war on transparency and accountability, this should be ignorable. But it’s made me really angry.

  13. The Abbott distraction will go on for days ( protecting Pell tomorrow)… Anyway we should just go with it

    Sir Billy Mackie Snedden………
    Old idiots to compare with new ones

  14. Diogenes @ 719: One would presume so, unless she is made a Dame in her own right (like some earlier Cosgroves, Sir Robert and Dame Gertrude).

  15. TTFaB –

    Will the Dames of the Order of Australia get the post nominal letters DOA (with KOA for the Knights)?

    Not sure of this Abbott nonsense, but someone linked some info from the 1976 Fraser equivalent where they were AD and AK respectively I believe.

  16. diogenes

    The people got it wrong with Bjelke-Petersen because they called his wife Lady Flo, rather than Lady B-P.

    Aussies are so far removed in time from the old titles, now, that there will have to be a special explanation from Abbott. As if!

  17. jackol

    [I don’t know why this has me so incensed.]

    Think of them like the plastic sheriffs badge that used to come with a cap gun.

  18. “@HughRundle: Just caught up on the #knightsanddames news. Weirdest government I’ve ever seen, and I grew up in Tasmania.”

  19. Victoria @ 714

    I’ve been told by an ‘informed source’ to quote ‘Yes Minister’ than there are divisions within the Hird camp

    Perhaps very close divisions… along the lines of the word ‘separate’

    Make of that what one will…

    Still it is very murky and unpleasant all round.

    If I was Little I would have sacked JH 12 months ago.

  20. “@KarenMMiddleton: The Govt has shelved plans to remove gender reporting requirements for businesses with 100+ staff until April ’15. ‘Consultations ongoing’”

    Until after election

  21. I think I understand how this new Brandis law works – a bigot or a racist can abuse someone simply on the basis of their race/ethnicity/sexuality/religion/etc., but the abused person is forbidden from responding that the abuser is a bigot or a racist.

  22. Talk about one man band.

    Not even the Liberals knew what was in Abbott’s head on his Nights and Dames.

    Even Liberal mouth-piece in Perth on shock radio 6PR Paul Murray in Perth is incredulous with this brain pop.

    “A totally autocratic decision” as described by Alannah McT……on local Perth radio.

    Turnbull tells us this is a “surprise decision”.

    What a way to run a country. I thought we might go back to the 1950s but not the 1850s.

  23. Tricot

    [Turnbull tells us this is a “surprise decision”.]
    Supports a tweet I saw saying Bryce was ambushed by Abbott on this.

  24. The thing about Abbott’s latest brain fart is it only serves to highlight that his government is devoid of ideas, has essentially done nothing of consequence and that which it has done has been mean spirited attempts at forcing an ideology that is fundamentally about selfishness.

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