Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 28
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  1. The AFR says that a labor heavyweight, Wayne Swan “Tips Howe for PM.” Then you read the story and Swan is asked whether Howe is a potential PM. Swan says “He will do well in whatever he does” or WTTE.
    The AFR has obviously decided they are going to be Howe’s private organ.

  3. No wonder the libs have pulled their attempt to gut FOFA. They’ve realised the voters are already sick of them.

  5. “@GMegalogenis: Your child is bullied at school, do you:
    a/ tell the teacher
    b/ tell your child to rejoice because “people have a right to be bigots”?”

  6. I think Thomson’s fate will depend on whether it is seen as a stealing by a servant case (jail for him) or really ripping of members and more like insider trading (no jail for him).

    I think there will be jail.

  7. cud chewer. I think the NBN desecration is sinking in, particularly with the young, and will be a big issue at the next election. But I talk to middle-aged people and say: “Are you getting foxtel right now?” They say yes, and I say, “Well that means you’re getting nothing.” And they say: “You’re kidding?” I say: “Sorry, but your government is going to spend billions of dollars giving you zip.” They are quite shocked.

  9. Hmmm.

    [Michael Burge ‏@burgewords 11m
    The look @ScottMorrisonMP gave @CUhlmann at the end of today’s interview on #asylumseekers tells me whatever “arrangement” there was is over ]

  11. @ConversationEDU: (More) evidence of link between climate change and extreme events. Evidence from World Meteorological Organization http://t.co/avVHI2iXP5

    This is why Shorten and his team must ignore RW calls to be spineless on Carbon Price repeal. Very happy to say its good to see Labor backbone on this backing up the science.

  12. I usually think that a govt’s ministerial line-up doesn’t matter very much. People focus on the PM. But when the PM isn’t much chop and you see a procession of people like Mogadon Andrew, Prissy Pine, Soapy George, Erica, etc etc parading across the screen, each creepier than the next, it must have a drip-drip effect on the public. And now they’ve lost Arfa, who, at least, knew how to act sane.
    How does this govt recover it’s fortunes? Tax cuts? But they’ve told us the cupboard is bare. They really have nailed themselves to a cross, haven’t they.

  13. Something to remember every time she speaks

    [Gina Rinehart the ‘corporate welfare’ queen

    How Australia’s richest person, mining heiress Gina Rinehart, secured a $US694 million ($764 million) loan from American taxpayers is surely one of the great ironies of the capitalist system, reports The Australian Financial Review.
    The case is the latest example of a flaw in the United States political economy: what some see as crony capitalism……….What would Ayn Rand think? Inspiration to free market capitalist thinkers and favourite writer of Gina Rinehart.

    “Why are taxpayers subsidising a business deal between an Australian billionaire and titans of American industry?”]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/gina-rinehart-the-corporate-welfare-queen-20140325-35eq3.html#ixzz2wvJ787eq

  14. if Senator Sinodinos’s QC is in fact going to cost $7000 per day, we should all be very pleased that the government made it clear last week that the issues in question arose before he entered Parliament, since that means that he could have no plausible case whatsoever for asking the taxpayers to pick up the bill.

  15. Pedant – don’t know where Kate McClymont got the $7,000 a day figure from. My guess is that Tony Bannon would normally be $10 to $12 thou a day (plus GST). His junior would be about $4 thou a day (plus GST). So, with a solicitor, you wouldn’t get any change out of $20 thou a day.
    However, I assume that he’s either doing this at mates rates (is he a member of the liberal party?) or a third party is footing the bill, or a combination of both.

  16. [Senator Sinodinos’s QC is …. going to cost $7000 per day ]

    Just to say that Sinodinos can’t remember, doesn’t recall etc?

  17. Wild West!

    “@702sydney: We’ve heard reports of bulls or buffalos on the loose in the Inner West… if you’ve seen something call us on 1300 222 702.”

  18. Dave – Love to be a fly on the wall and see what instructions Arfa gives Bannon. Does he deny that Kerry Schott warned him, and put his credibility up against hers. Dangerous. Dangerous. But if he accepts what she says, he’s not in a good place either.

  20. [Just to say that Sinodinos can’t remember, doesn’t recall etc?]

    yes, I wonder how long before he develops a condition? Alan Bonditis seems to work for them.

  23. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 115: Maybe you are right about mates rates, but I do wonder whether people will want to continue to invest in the Senator when he seems to be tending towards junk bond status (politically speaking).

  26. This really surprises – Poms pay inheritance tax on assets over AUD$ 590,000 (325,000 Pounds).

    Can you imagine the howling if that was brought in here? :devil:

    { The tax is payable at 40 per cent on the amount over this threshold or 36 per cent if the estate qualifies for a reduced rate. A surviving spouse or civil partner who has their permanent home in the UK is exempt. }

    [ David Cameron has said the Conservatives would like to cut inheritance tax, suggesting the party may go into the next election reviving its abandoned pledge to raise the threshold to £1m.

    He made the comments when asked about his 2007 pledge to raise the threshold at which the tax is payable, from £325,000 up to £1m, which the coalition has not done. He said the Conservatives would have to address the issue in their manifesto for the election next year. ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/24/cameron-tories-raise-inheritance-threshold

  27. Gotta love the GG. Labor’s two-party preferred lead over the Coalition went from 51 to 49 per cent two weeks ago to 52 to 48 per cent last weekend. But the headline for the article ? 😆

    [Abbott Support Still Strong: Newspoll]

  28. “@FergusonLMP: Brandis stands up for persecuted bigots. Having abandoned lynchings he says the KKK should not have to hide behind sheets.”

  29. mari

    Scrot thinks it is time to “move on”

    [IMMIGRATION Minister Scott Morrison is refusing to investigate new claims by asylum-seekers of abuse by military personnel, suggesting the ABC accept defence denials and “move on”.

    “I don’t believe what I saw last night — I simply don’t believe it — I choose to believe the assessment that’s given to me by the navy,” Mr Morrison said.

    I don’t think it’s for the government to disprove the negative. It’s for those who have allegations to actually prove the positive]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/scott-morrison-says-matter-is-closed-over-allegations-of-abuse-of-asylumseekers/story-fn9hm1gu-1226864010907

  30. VLAD the conveyancer is in deep poo.

    [QUEENSLAND’S former solicitor-general has unloaded on Jarrod Bleijie, questioning his integrity and whether he is fit to be Attorney-General.

    In a scathing letter to The Courier-Mail, Walter Sofronoff QC said Mr Bleijie had “prejudiced” his position as the state’s top law officer by going public with private talks he held with Court of Appeal president Justice Margaret McMurdo over a vacant judicial position.

    This morning, Mr Sofronoff went further, saying he believed Mr Bleijie should quit his position.

    “I believe he should resign,” Mr Sofronoff told ABC radio during an interview about his decision to criticise Mr Bleijie through a letter he penned to The Courier-Mail]

    Newman is now trying to blame the VLAD laws on Sofronoff, what a nasty little noddy we have as Premier.

  31. I am thinking that it would be a good investment to build a large cell block under Parliament House. All the politicians doing porridge could be grouped together, and put on public display for the school kiddies.

    Thommo, Slipper, Sinodinos and most of the NSW cabinet (both sides) can all be accommodated.

  33. All those who think Tony Jones is anti Labor or just a waste of space on Q&A should have seen the way he nailed Kelly O’Bigmouth to the wall on the question of whether the government has spoken to – or intends to speak to -the asylum seekers making the accusations against the navy. Apparently the 7.30 report aired new allegations last night.

    As a result of his pursuit of her she was roundly jeered and ridiculed by the large audience.

  35. [The crews held an impromptu interview with Mr Truss but have complained at being ”locked out” of any chance to put questions to AMSA boss John Young. On Monday, AMSA posted a security guard at the front of its headquarters.
    George Yang, the chief correspondent for Hong Kong’s Phoenix Satellite Television, said he had been asked to prove his credentials while he prepared to do a cross from public land. ”This wouldn’t even happen in China,” Yang said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese-journalists-say-they-are-being-locked-out-of-amsa-media-briefings-20140324-35e8o.html#ixzz2wvUHEtRY%5D

    “This wouldn’t happen in China”

    LOL, Good one Comrade! An ABC journalist was out front of a media briefing in China just the other day regarding this flight, unable to go in because foreign journalists were locked out in the meeting.

  38. Darn

    I am with you probably for the first time in her life Kelly O’Dwyer was shut up and she didn’t like it one bit!

    Could we ask Rachel Griffiths to join the ALP?

  39. Poland doesn’t like the way it all looks….been there done that……

    [ Poland Is Quietly Mobilizing Its Army Reservists

    At least 7,000 reservists have been recalled to the colours for immediate exercises lasting between 10 and 30 days.

    They’re told by the Polish authorities that the call-ups are “routine”: but the men say they haven’t been asked before and they’re well aware of the growing alarm in Warsaw at President Putin’s aggression.

    Three weeks ago, their Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, called a press conference to warn that “the world stands on the brink of conflict, the consequences of which are not foreseen… Not everyone in Europe is aware of this situation.”

    But in the worst case scenario of a truly revanchist Russia, Poland certainly has the borders from hell. Starting from the top, it abuts Kaliningrad (the Russian exclave on the Baltic carved at the end of the war from East Prussia), Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.

    None of these borders relies on any natural barriers like rivers or mountain ranges – they are just lines on a map drawn by Stalin in the full flush of victory. No wonder the Poles are feeling vulnerable.
    ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-24/poland-quietly-mobilizing-its-army-reservists

  40. [ Frodo Baggins
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    LOL, Good one Comrade! An ABC journalist was out front of a media briefing in China just the other day regarding this flight, unable to go in because foreign journalists were locked out in the meeting. ]

    Stick to boaties, truthie.

  41. “@ScottWesterfeld: Plot idea: 97% of the world’s scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies.”

  42. “@Kate_McClymont: “It was a personal warning to Mr Sinodinios, who I thought very highly of, ” said Dr Schott about voicing suspicions re AWH to him #icac”

  43. “@political_alert: Attorney-General Senator George Brandis will hold a press conference today at Parliament House, 11am #auspol”

  45. So Thommo gets three months with a further nine suspended.

    Has Williamson been sentenced yet coz he must be looking at a lot more than that.

  46. How much do you get for armed robbery? Assault? All Thomson ruined was his career and his reputation. I’d say that’s enough.

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