Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 28
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  1. “@jonathanvswan: The man likely to decide whether Brandis succeeds w race laws – @CliveFPalmer – tells me he will announce his decision at a “strategic” time”

  4. [ http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mathias-cormann-plays-down-possible-changes-to-financial-advice-reforms/story-fn59niix-1226864162574# ]

    So the Libs are doing the:

    “If you were not so fracking stupid you would understand our policy and agree with it. We will now explain it again. No, dont try and discuss it, just listen, understand and then agree you peasant!!”

    Which is much along the lines of how they handled AS policy with our bestest buddies Indonesia. That worked out well didn’t it??

    This lot are morons. If they get this through, and there is ANY collapse of ANY sort in which pensioners lose their money then this WILL hurt them. Its corrupt pandering to a rich special interest group that is in a position to, and has a history of, ripping off vulnerable people.

  5. imacca

    Yes they are morons. See passing of legislation last night increasing child care funding.

    LNP are now trying to unscramble the egg. A very big oops.

    Pyne so good at managing legislation

  7. “@latikambourke: Tried desperately to ask the AG about part 4 but due to time wasn’t able to ask another question. Expect pt4 could be contested on left #18C”

    Good to see Ms Bourke is learning. Keeping the public in the loop

  8. [Mr Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 5m
    On Thomson, is there an exemption if you bill taxpayers for flying round the nation buying property & claiming it as electorate business?]

  12. So hang on, penalties for poisoning waterways is now ‘green tape’?

    Does that makes laws against public corruption are just ‘red tape’?

  18. imacca@204: “This lot are morons. If they get this through, and there is ANY collapse of ANY sort in which pensioners lose their money then this WILL hurt them.”

    That’s the bit I really don’t get. The Libs seem to be intent on setting up their very own pink batts situation.

    I realise that suburban financial advisers are an important Liberal constituency (along with the remaining stockbroking firms, real estate agents, suburban solicitors, pharmacists, newsagents and all the other rotarians/masons/etc. running small operations with rather old-fashioned business models).

    And I realise that this group is rather scared about the reforms not because they want to rip people off, but for the more legitimate reason that they fear that they might be punished under the new rules for making an honest (well, “honestish”) mistake. (As far as I can see, that’s the key concern driving all of this, not some of the nonsense I’ve heard about Sinodinos trying to help his mates in the big banks.)

    But, when you are in government, you’ve sometimes got to turn away from your bleating constituencies and consider the big picture. Which is this: while it was reasonable to oppose the reforms before they came into effect, trying to reverse them now will simply leave the Coalition in the totally exposed position of being 100% responsible for any future loss of savings by anyone who has invested their money on the advice of a professional financial adviser.

    It’s another case of poor political judgement, which I’m starting to fear is a bit endemic. I hope they’ve got a really good strategy for selling the upcoming Budget.

  20. “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.” – Martin Luther King Jr.

    “People do have a right to be bigots, you know.” – Senator George Brandis.

  23. No matter how ambiguous the rules may have been, I find it just a tad difficult to believe that Craig Thomson wouldn’t have realised that prostitutes were not an appropriate, er, activity to be spending union funds on.

    Stuff him. Just another selfish twit who screwed over both his union and his party to satisfy his own desires.

    The insane media storm at the time may not have been justified, and was pretty transparantly about bringing down the Gillard government, but nonetheless Thomson has only himself to blame for his situation.

  24. [ Just out of interest: what is the LNP’s back-up plan, you know, just on the off chance that 97% of scientists are correct, and bunch of cranks and hopelessly compromised coal billionaires turn out to be wrong? ]

    Go into opposition where they dont actually have to do anything other than whinge and say no. Then, when they and their press mates have “created the narrative” that its all the ALP’s fault because they weren’t tough enough to keep a carbon price in place, sail back into power blaming the ALP / Greens for everything.

    Oh, and BOATS!!!!!!!!

  26. [Just out of interest: what is the LNP’s back-up plan, you know, just on the off chance that 97% of scientists are correct, and bunch of cranks and hopelessly compromised coal billionaires turn out to be wrong?]

    They will drop a giant ice-cube in the ocean every time it gets too warm. That’ll fix it.

  27. Lizzie @ 206

    I once dated a women (nut case Scorpio hehe but moving on) who had read many books that specialised in deceiving the public to win an argument.

    You analyse your actions and behaviour and where you consider that action or behaviour to be unpopular or unacceptable to the judgement of the public – you LOUDLY accuse your opponents of being guilty of those same actions or behaviour.

    Christopher Pyne, in accusing the opposition of bullying the speaker where in fact it is the speaker who is bullying the opposition, is doing that exactly.

    It’s called hypocrisy. Hypocrisy is actually an art. It’s not a science 😀 it’s an art!

    And it’s something the Liberals specialise in and rely on to win support.

    As for Pyne, I think he is a coward little piece of sh!t like his leader :mrgreen:

  28. Every so often a politician says something really stupid, that is remembered and comes to define him or her, at least to some extent. (eg President Nixon: “I am not a crook”; John Howard: “core” and “non-core” promises). I have a feeling that Senator Brandeis’s defence of the right to be a bigot is such a one, and will haunt him for the rest of his career.

  29. [It’s another case of poor political judgement, which I’m starting to fear is a bit endemic.]

    I’d say they’re going to try to do it is because it’s Hockey’s ‘thing’ and he doesn’t think he’s been getting a fair go so far in Govt.

    Throwing him a bone.

  31. Pedant

    [I have a feeling that Senator Brandeis’s defence of the right to be a bigot is such a one, and will haunt him for the rest of his career.
    ]

    My theory is that Brandis has been trying hard to do better than the phrase he has been known for until now, namely calling his then leader John Howard “the Lying Rodent”.

    The jury is still out whether “It’s ok to be a bigot” will overtake this, but it might have a chance.

  35. [The man likely to decide whether Brandis succeeds w race laws – @CliveFPalmer – tells me he will announce his decision at a “strategic” time”]

    When you look at Clive’s people who run for parliament, they are very multicultural.

    I’d be very surprised if Palmer backs the changes in the race laws. And Clive and Bolt hate each other as well making it even less likely.

  36. sprocket @ 231: My guess is that Senator Brandeis’s defence of bigotry will stick with him, because it’s very much out of alignment with modern Australian society. Sure, there are quite a few bigots left, but 50 or 60 years ago, casual and not so casual racism was simply taken for granted as expressing an obvious truth. That’s no longer the case: most people now appreciate that it’s an ugly manifestation of human nastiness. The Senator has put himself firmly on the wrong side of history. “You can tell a man who boozes by the company he chooses; and the pig got up and slowly walked away”.

  37. mari

    [Liberal MP spruiking Cash for Likes on his Facebook page]

    Felling very insecure about how things are going, I’d say.

  38. They should teach hypocrisy in the Years 11 and 12 school curriculum 😎

    Give them something useful to study in real life instead of most of the garbage they’re actually taught!

  40. CTar1
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 1:26 pm | PERMALINK
    mari

    Liberal MP spruiking Cash for Likes on his Facebook page

    Felling very insecure about how things are going, I’d say.

    Yes really getting a workout on twitter helped a little by my retweet too :devil:

  41. Guytaur @ 230

    Possible big mistake from Bannon…

    From the article

    “Mr Bannon went on to note that Sydney Water signed a contract with AWH after the “crooks” comment was made.”

    I think contract was signed by Lib gov on advice to avoid litigation between SW & AWH & after contract was revised to protect SW… that is when contract became worthless from the crooks point of view.. ICAC have already said signing contract was above board

    Therefore signing of contract not an admission “they weren’t crooks”

  42. I looked up definition of bigot to be sure I got it right.

    [1. (derogatory) One who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices.

    2. One who is strongly partial to one’s own group (e.g. religion, race, gender, political party, etc.) and is intolerant of those who differ.]

    Surely, surely, that therefore includes racial intolerance, therefore Brandis wants Coalition to support racism.

  43. Centre

    You have accuraterly described what others often call “projection”. A favourite activity of the Pynes of this world. 🙂

  47. I would have thought Thomson’s precarious financial position would have made just copping the 3 months in the big house as a more sensible option…

    And WTF?:

    After being bailed, Thomson continued to maintain his innocence, saying there had been no admissions in his case.

    This man has to be delusional.

  50. Maybe Brandis inspired in his policy by this latest leaked phone call…..so want to wonder what the new leadership in Ukraine is like??

    [After a month ago a leaked phone call between US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland and the US envoy to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt confirmed that it was the US that was pulling the strings in what was about to be a violent coup overthrowing Ukraine’s president Yanukovich, “someone” has just leaked another phone conversation, this time between parliamentarian Nestor Shufrych and former PM and ideological leader of the Ukraine “revolution” Yulia Tymoshenko and most probable future president of West Ukraine, in which Tymoshenko is makes the following threats, ]

    […statement by Tymoshenko, after asked, rhetorically, by her counterparty, “what should we do now with the 8 million Russians that stayed in Ukraine. They are outcasts”… to which she replies: “They must be killed with nuclear weapons.” ]

    Leaked phone call with sub titles…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RxSzSWbcxo

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