Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  5. Why didn’t Thomson apologise and pay back the money he stole 4 Years ago?

    Things might have turned out different for him.

  9. zoidlord

    Don’t think Sin will be found to have stolen any money…… just had his snout in his share of entitlement. …. $200k ( for 3 years?) + 5% of the company +another 2.5% success fee…
    Business is a better class of looting

  11. I cannot get a grasp on Thomson or his motivations.

    To me it just seems like he has been in deep delusional denial for quite a few years and still thinks he can somehow get off without being held to account for his behaviour.

    And now, appealing his conviction … I just don’t understand.

  12. Lizzie …

    Did the ABC report that the threats were made by a person with a voice sounding similiar to that of a squealling poodle that had been chained to a fence without food or water.

  13. [ABC saying Brock has had death threats.]

    Anonymous? Or are these vituperative turds prepared to come out from under the rocks they’re hiding under?

  19. I see that the Government of the Spivs has withdrawn its favourite spiv ‘reforms’.

    Looks like the citizenry were onto it.

  25. [sprocket_
    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 2:08 pm | Permalink

    why has Abbott got women in yellow uniforms sitting behind him?]

    I make it two grey men, two yellow women, one lime green woman and one purple woman.

    The real answer to your question is that when you have only one woman in cabinet you make sure that the five knocking on the door to cabinet are sitting behind you during QT to demonstrate that you just love women, you really do.

  33. BoerWar..

    [“People have the right to be bigots you know,” Brandis said in answer to a question by the Indigenous Labor senator Nova Peris. “In this country people have rights to say things that other people find offensive or bigoted.

    ]

  34. Whoops. Madame Speaker no longer allowing points of order on the basis that she knows what they are before the honourable member (in this case the Manager of Opposition Business) makes them.

    Madame Speaker getting visibly angry as well as snarky…

    This is particularly noticeable when those Opposite hoot with mocking laughter.

  36. UK: The Conservatives are back to the ‘buy the pensioners’ trick:

    [Labour lead over Conservatives falls in first poll after George Osborne’s pensioner-friendly Budget
    …
    According to ComRes, Labour is now on 36 per cent (down two points), the Conservatives on 31 per cent (up one point), Ukip on 11 per cent (no change), the Liberal Democrats on nine per cent (down one point) and other parties on 13 per cent (up two points).]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-lead-over-conservatives-falls-in-first-poll-after-george-osbornes-pensionerfriendly-budget-9213105.html

  40. Tom Paine re Ukraine threat by Timeshenko post 250
    ____________________________

    This mad threat to use nucleur weapons …by a deranged woman…who was placed on the platform in Kiev for her admiring right-wing audience on the night of the coup.shows,as Tom Paine shows ,just how mad the neo-fascist regime in Kiev really is

    In The USA there is much comment now across the political lines about the madness of the USA spending %5billion to set up the coup…and now facing a bottomless pit of debt for a bankrupt Ukraine…bankrupt after 20 years of corruption at every level of govt.

    No wonder the American Empire is bankrupt with endless spening on foreign adventuresby the Neo-cons and the militarists in the Pentagon…one opf whom today is calling for more money for the military…how they love war !

    …and what does the Ukraine matter to the average US citizen who is struggling to survive ,and with 50 million depending on food stanps for their daily bread

  42. In 2009, 32,000 of 50,000 Vietnam War veterans were on a disability pension.

    19,000 of those were totally and permanently incapacitated.

    14,000 of those were TPI because of PTSD.

    Having screwed war orphans in a bastard act, I wonder when the Liberals will get around screwing Vietnam Vets out of their disability pensions?

  48. The Brandis approach
    _____________
    Perhaps we could have a tourist trade of foreigners who want to be bigoted in public places in a way they can’t do at home

    Cafes where they could sound of and abuse blacks,chinese whatever…cost quiote a bundle and organised flights from overseas bigots and racists
    “Come to Oz and offend everyone”

  49. His Honour is continuing to paint the church into a corner with his magnificent examination of this witness. It is a wonder to behold seeing this man exercise his finely honed craft.

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