Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest Newspoll records little change on last time, while Morgan has Labor pulling well ahead.

GhostWhoVotes relates that the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, up from 51-49 last fortnight. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 36%, and the Coalition down one to 40%. More to follow. UPDATE: The Australian report relates that Bill Shorten’s approval rating is up three points to 36%, which is the first time a poll has moved in his favour in quite a while. UPDATE 2: Full tables here; to fill in the blanks, Shorten’s disapproval is steady at 43%, Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40% and steady on disapproval at 50%, and Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister nudges from 42-36 to 43-36.

Today’s Morgan result, combining its regular face-to-face and SMS polling from the last two weekends, was the Coalition’s worst since the election, recording a 1.5% shift on the primary vote from the Coalition (to 38%) to Labor (38.5%), with the Greens down a point to 11% and Palmer United up half a point to 4.5%. On 2013 election preferences, this gives Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead, up from 52.5-47.5 a fortnight ago, while on respondent-allocated preferences the shift is from 53.5-46.5 to 54.5-45.5. Morgan has also been in the business lately of providing selective state-level two-party results, which are presumably based on respondent-allocated preferences. From this poll we are told Labor had unlikely leads of 56.5-43.5 in Queensland and 52-48 in Western Australia, together with leads of 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales and 55-45 in Victoria, and an unspecified “narrow” lead in South Australia.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor back up a point on the primary vote after it fell two last week, now at 37%, with the Coalition up one for a second week. The Greens and Palmer United are at 9% and 4%, with others down a point and the other loose point coming off rounding. Respondents were quizzed about the attributes of the major parties, which provides good news for Labor in that “divided” is down 14% to 58%, and “clear about what they stand for” is up 8% to 42%. Those are also the biggest movers for the Liberals, respectively down 6% and up 7%, although they are still performing better than Labor on each at 50% and 32%. The worst differential for Labor is still “divided”, at 26% in favour of the Liberals, while for the Liberals it’s “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, which is at 62% for Liberal and 34% for Labor.

A question reading “as far as you know, do you think taxes in Australia are higher or lower than in other developed countries” turns up the fascinating finding that 64% of respondents believed they were higher versus only 8% for lower, while 65% believed taxes to have increased over the last five years versus 9% for decreased. Forty-seven per cent believe the current level of taxation is enough versus 33% who believe they will need to increase. The poll also finds 50% opposed to following New Zealand’s example in holding a referendum on changing the flag versus only 31% supportive.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,384 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. “””And WTF?:

    After being bailed, Thomson continued to maintain his innocence, saying there had been no admissions in his case.

    This man has to be delusional.”””

    I think he genuinely was under the impression he was entitled to use the credit card as part of his entitlement.
    where did it state that was not so!.

  3. Well done Dreyfus asking about which community organisations supported the legislation. The lying PMBO claimed “community organisation” supported it.

  5. guytaur:

    [Back to carbon tax. A horse almost ready for the knackers as polls show]

    It’s the glue that holds the Coalition together.

  7. With a brief digression to roads of recovery we are sticking with carbon tax and minerals tax.

    … waiting for boats to be launched.

  9. I think he genuinely was under the impression he was entitled to use the credit card as part of his entitlement.

    Evidence, such as his repeated denials that he had used said credit cards for the various purposes, says he was well aware that he was not ‘entitled’.

  11. @guytaur/306

    When was the last time liberals consulted community organizations, the public etc on changes to both Policies and Law?

    Even back in Howard days, ignored criticisms.

  14. James Kunstler ..a US writer…in his weekly column on the US economy…did…in 2008 accurately foreecast the fall of Lehman Bros Bank..and few noticed his comment…now wonders how the US can go on sponding on overseas interventions like that in the Ukraine when cities like Detroit are a bankrupt ruin..and in Gary Indiana where the ruin of local factories has left a host of abandoned houses ,being sold by the local council for “$1″..Yes…just $!”
    though Gary is a depressed city of the worst kind…poverty stricken and crime-ridden and derelict

  16. “@lenoretaylor: PM accuses Labor of “dog whistling” over RDA changes. I think Labor’s attack is quite audible.”

  19. Carbon tax. Mining tax. Roads to recovery. Thomson.

    I trust that if Labor has any criminals in the ranks right now it is working to eject same.

  24. “”Computers running the operating system will become more vulnerable as Microsoft stops releasing security patches, and there will be no more automatic updates.””

    Then use a Decent non windows virus program!.

  25. Essential unchanged on 51/49 to the libs.

    I guess polling is not an exact science, but you’d expect closer agreement than we are getting at the moment.

  28. don

    If you take into account the standard deviation of the polls then them lining up on the same numbers would and should be uncommon.

  29. [“”Computers running the operating system will become more vulnerable as Microsoft stops releasing security patches, and there will be no more automatic updates.””

    Then use a Decent non windows virus program!.]

    Or don’t use windows

  32. Who is this blonde bombsheel for the Libs?

    She sounds like a petulant schoolgirl. I’ve never seen her do anything but spit her answers out and chuck hissy fits.

  33. Bishop again refuses to listen to a point of order.

    Chucks the third red on a guy whose only crime was to want to make a point of order.

    Shambles.

  36. Dimitry Orlov…formerly Russian ..now a US citizen who wrote widely on the collapse of the Soviet Union,sees the USA on the same path …uncontrolled debt/ vast miltary expenditure out of control spending and growing social conflicts and mad foreeign policy ventures…all leading to collapse
    He wrote a major book on the problems in the USSR
    an interesting talk ,
    an interesting view

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCO5nZgvtbY

  37. Ley is a bit over-eager to impress and not infrequently makes small errors as a result.

    But she is, IMHO, policy smart.

    She will be one of the first Avon Ladies to be allowed in with Ms Bishop the Lesser in a Cabinet restructure.

  42. [ Libertarian Unionist

    Posted Tuesday, March 25, 2014 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

    “”Computers running the operating system will become more vulnerable as Microsoft stops releasing security patches, and there will be no more automatic updates.””

    Then use a Decent non windows virus program!.

    Or don’t use windows]

    —————————————————

    Among China’s Internet users, about 57 percent rely on Windows XP systems to go online, according to analytics site CNZZ.com. The OS can still be found in use at Internet cafes, businesses and schools.

    A major reason why the 12-year-old OS is so popular in China is because it has been widely pirated

    – the one original copy of xp imported into China went a loooong way 🙂

  46. “@AC360: #Australia’s Defense Minister is expected to address reporters minutes from now. Watch it live on #AC360”

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