BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor

A closer look at the parties’ polling fortunes this term state-by-state, in lieu of much to go on in the way of new polling over Easter.

Easter has meant that only the regular weekly pollsters have reported this week, which means Essential Research and Morgan. The latter polls weekly but reports fortnightly, which I deal with by dividing each fortnightly result into two data points, each with half the published sample size. Neither Essential nor Morgan is radically off beam, so this week’s movements involve a correction after last week’s Greens outlier from Nielsen. This is not to say that Nielsen’s Greens surge was measuring nothing at all, the 17% result perhaps having been partly a reflection of it being the poll most proximate to the WA Senate election. In fact, both of the new results this week find the Greens at their highest level since at least the last election, and probably a good while earlier. Their 11% rating in Essential may not appear too spectacular, but it comes from what is the worst polling series for them by some distance – indeed, the only one the BludgerTrack model does not deem to be biased in their favour. Nonetheless, their rating in BludgerTrack this week comes off 1.8% on last week’s Nielsen-driven peak.

The dividend from the Greens’ loss has been divided between other parties in such a way as to produce essentially no change on two-party preferred. However, state relativities have changed in such a way as to cost Labor three seats and its projected majority, illustrating once again the sensitivity of Queensland, where a 0.8% shift has made two seats’ worth of difference. The New South Wales result has also shifted 0.6% to the Coalition, moving a third seat back into their column. Another change worth noting is a 2.4% move to Labor in Tasmania, which is down to a methodological change – namely the inclusion, for Tasmania only, of the state-level two-party preferred results that Morgan has taken to publishing. I had not been putting this data to use thus far, as the BludgerTrack model runs off primary votes and the figures in question are presumably respondent-allocated preferences besides. However, the paucity of data for Tasmania is such that I’ve decided it’s worth my while to extract modelled primary votes from Morgan’s figures, imperfect though they may be. The change has not made any difference to the seat projection, this week at least.

Finally, I’ve amused myself by producing primary vote and two-party preferred trendlines for each of the five mainland states, which you can see below. These suggest that not too much has separated New South Wales and Victoria in the changes recorded over the current term, leaving aside their very different starting points. However, whereas the Coalition has had a very gentle upward trend this year in Victoria and perhaps also New South Wales, their decline looks to have resumed lately in Queensland. Last week I noted that six successive data points I was aware of had Labor ahead on two-party preferred in Queensland, including five which are in the model and a Morgan result which is not. That’s now extended to eight with the availability of two further data points this week. The other eye-catching result in the charts below is of course from Western Australia, which clearly shows the effects of the Senate election with respect to both the Greens and Palmer United. The current gap between Labor and the Greens is such that the latter could well win lower house seats at Labor’s expense on these numbers – not that I recommend holding my breath waiting for that to happen.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.1-48.9 to Labor”

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  1. Thanks William. The State breakdowns are cause for thought. It’s interesting to speculate on how things might break down in the Senate in a DD…

  2. I find the WA graph frustrating. My fellow West Aussies screamed and yelled about the former Federal Labor Govt debt, took up the cry of liar regarding carbon pricing, denounced Rudd/Gillard as anti WA with the reduction in GST and the MRRT and carried on like the GFC never happened and the debt incurred to save Australia had been money spent on chocolate and lollies

    Meanwhile we have a Premier who has lied at each election, making promises he is breaking within weeks of being elected. Ask the people in Ellenbrook how that railway is going. Promised 6 years ago and still nothing. Then there was the lie that all increases would be in ine with the CPI. CPI running at 2-2.5%, charges increased 4% with the arrogant comment from Barnett -near enough.

    Since coming the power the Liberals have had record revenue from mining royalties, record revenue from stamp duty, increased power prices 70%, increased water charges around the same and still managed so poorly that the state has lost its Triple A credit rating, going from $3 billion debt when Barnett took over from Labor, to a staggering $28 billion. That’s overspending by around $4 billion a year.

    And the idiots here blame a $650 million reduction is GST share…

    And they still keep supporting and voting for this arrogant mismanagement of a govt

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    An interesting challenge to a highly protected market.
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/smartphone-apps/low-cost-taxi-service-a-danger-to-the-public-furious-taxi-council-says-20140423-zqyby.html
    What is it about grossly overpaid sportsmen?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/buddy-franklin-interviewed-by-police-after-rose-bay-car-crash-20140423-374o5.html
    There is much potential within current taxation law to allow for revenue increase if they are serious about collection.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/hockey-prepares-straitjacket-to-put-restraint-on-spending-20140423-374o8.html
    They’d want to be bloody good for this price tag and ongoing high running costs.!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/running-costs-double-jsf-price-tag-to-24b-20140423-zqyay.html
    The Commission of Audit is not alone with respect to absence of detail on the Direct Action scheme.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/audit-not-privy-to-multibilliondollar-direct-action-plan-to-reduce-emissions-20140424-zqya6.html
    Meanwhile this bubbles along in the background.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/23/court-reserves-decision-on-full-hearing-for-asylum-seekers-data-breach-case
    The Greens have a point here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-greens-model-millionaire-taxes-for-tony-abbott-and-his-rich-friends-20140423-zqy9f.html
    And what will Hockey’s budget measures do to this?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/analysts-raise-fears-as-australian-households-step-up-debt-20140423-374e4.html
    OK Brandis, now what?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/asis-witness-to-appear-in-east-timor-legal-battle-20140423-zqxc7.html
    A game changer?
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/tindo-solar-will-install-solar-panels-free-for-5000-businesses-and-households-in-mawson-lakes/story-fni6uma6-1226893885057

  7. Section 2 . . .

    Dutton will have his work cut out in defining just how the pay/don’t pay line is drawn.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-says-wealthy-shouldnt-expect-free-doctor-visits-20140423-zqxv2.html
    An absolute cracker from David Pope!

    Alan Moir with a look at the potential ICAC harvest to begin on Monday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Cathy Wilcox nicely sums up the lottery that is the royal family.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    YUK! David Rowe with Abbott as he rolls out the JSF purchase.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  8. With a poor start by the Libs it’s amazing the figures aren’t worse. If the figures don’t shift after the budget I expect Tony Burke will be Oppo leader by Christmas. he has apparently impressed (lisp and all) with his combative approach against the government.

  11. But the ideas are unlikely to find favour with either of the major parties – neither of whom want to be associated with implementing new taxes.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-greens-model-millionaire-taxes-for-tony-abbott-and-his-rich-friends-20140423-zqy9f.html#ixzz2zkQbAnVb

    But we know at least one Party, the Liberals, are quite content to attack pensioners, take money from orphans and increase health costs for those who can least afford it.

    Obviously much more favourable things to do than to have the wealthy Liberal donors/supporters pay a fair share of taxation

  12. [
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    With a poor start by the Libs it’s amazing the figures aren’t worse. If the figures don’t shift after the budget I expect Tony Burke will be Oppo leader by Christmas. he has apparently impressed (lisp and all) with his combative approach against the government.
    ]
    So this is the Liberals only hope, the breakout of Labor leadship tension.

    As the polls slip further and further to a labor win, not very likely.

  15. Hockey’s speech: The Case for Change as it might have been:

    [CHRIS UHLMANN: The world has a “serious CO2e emissions problem” and everyone will be called on to balance the world’s emissions books: That’s the warning from the Treasurer, as he begins to unveil the findings of his IPCC into the likely trajectory of global temperature over the next 90 years.

    During a speech in Sydney last night Joe Hockey said the world emissions are set to grow faster than was consistent with long term human welfare — a scenario he says is a recipe for disaster. The IPCC’s full report was released last week.

    But climate change deniers and pollution apologists say it will reveal nothing new and is simply political cover to help confect a crisis and policies aimed at denying polluters the right to use the ecosphere as a free industrial sewer.

    From Canberra, James Glenday reports.

    JAMES GLENDAY: The speech was called the “Case for Change”, but it was as much response to the findings of the IPCC as another step towards major emissions cuts by 2020.

    JOE HOCKEY: I ask Australians not to judge this program on what they get or on what they lose. These measures are about the welfare of all humanity, especially the disadvantaged, and even those yet to be born.

    JAMES GLENDAY: Joe Hockey says the IPCC has found the world has an emissions problem.

    Fifteen key areas including emissions from coal, coal seam gas, shale oil, conventional oil, agriculture and landfill are forecast to grow rapidly.

    JOE HOCKEY: Most are also expected to grow considerably faster than the economy. To put it simply, our biggest emissions are also our fastest growing emissions.

    JAMES GLENDAY: If business remains as usual there could be big deficits every year to 2024. The Treasurer says that’s a recipe for disaster and deep cuts must be made now or far more dramatically in the future.

    JOE HOCKEY: Every sector of the community will be expected to contribute. It will not be acceptable for a few to make the major sacrifices on behalf of the rest of us.

    JAMES GLENDAY: Joe Hockey is giving a few hints at how the emissions repair job will be carried out. Fossil fuel subsidies are over, while tougher tests on dumping of CO2 and more investment in low carbon intensity technology will be introduced.

    More detail will come next Thursday when the governments plan for the next round of climate negotiations is released.

    JOE HOCKEY: The report has provided an important perspective for the framing of the 2020 carbon budget. Australia really needs to get down to average emissions of 2tCo2e per person and encourage other states to follow our lead if global temperatures increases are to be kept below 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. Future generations will demand no less. If we don’t cut now, we will simply have to cut harder later on at greater cost and with less benefit.

    Pollution apologist leader, Andrew Bolt says it’s clear the IPCC report was a waste of money.

    ANDREW BOLT: The Government has clearly jumped ship and joined the conspiracy led by scientists to deny polluters the right to use the biosphere as a dumping ground for industrial waste. This is about taking from the wealthy of today to give to the poor of tomorrow. It’s the worst kind of social engineering.

    Yet the government is keen to press on.

    JOE HOCKEY: We really have no choice. We simply can’t keep kicking the can down the road and asking future generations to pick up the tab for our reckless polluting. At some point they will be up to their armpits in our crap, biodiversity will have crashed, we will have a global water crisis, there will be climate refugees everywhere and those fancy waterfront properties will be under water. If the polluters think they can pollute now and send the bill to humanity’s grandkids, they have another think coming.

  16. Why do people keep calling then “broken promises”?

    The Liberals, be they state or federal quite simply lied to the people.

    And continue lying to the people.

    The problem we have is an unprofessional, unethical media that is so infected by the Murdoch germ that they just roll over and play dead rather than apply the same vigor and venom to their reporting as they did when Labor were in Government

  18. As linked by BK. You gotta laugh. Brandis tried so hard to keep this witness from giving any evidence in this case.

    [An international panel of jurists has ordered Australia to make available East Timor’s star witness – a former Australian spy – in a high-stakes legal battle between the two countries over $40 billion of disputed oil and gas reserves.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/asis-witness-to-appear-in-east-timor-legal-battle-20140423-zqxc7.html#ixzz2zkYlRFPI

  19. $24 billion to keep planes operational until 2024.

    $2.4 billion a year.

    But can’t afford to pay the orphaned children and children of disabled troops who served Australia $211 a year

  20. Everything

    ” The Prince of Wales, who I think he’s more accurate than Al Gore, he says the world will end in ten years, the prince says it’s going to end, I think, in six years and seven months. ”

    This is just mad! The World is going to end??? Madness.

  23. From previous thread:
    bemused@1110 on Morgan: 52-48 to Labor | The Poll Bludger

    Player One@1093

    It was widely reported in the press at the time and never denied. I provided a link to a very thorough investigatory report earlier.

    Try googling ‘greg anderson mental illness’.


    The infallible “Dr Google”, eh? He’s a psychiatrist as well now?

    Actually, I did read quite a few of articles on this subject. Lots of insinuations and allegations – all unsubstantiated. None of them provided any actual evidence.

    None.

    But there is lots of evidence to the contrary, including the testimony of Rosie Batty, which you seem to simply dismiss. Or perhaps not understand.

    I think we all know why you simply can’t accept this, bemused – and it says far more about your attitudes to women and domestic violence than it says about the death of poor Luke Batty.

    As kezza pointed out the other night, you still seem to be carrying some serious baggage around to do with women asserting authority. If I were you, I’d try and resolve your issues before its too late.

    But I feel I have done enough to try and help you tonight. We can take it up again tomorrow, if you like.

    You are not merely a grub, but a disgraceful grub!

    You know damn well that I abhor violence toward women and children in any form.

    For the record, Rosie Batty indicated that her ex was aggressive, abusive and violent toward her, but never her son until that dreadful event and she had believed he would never harm their son.

    I have no problem with competent women being in authority and some of the best bosses I have ever had were women.

    I have also supported and campaigned for women candidates.

    Yes, someone here has a problem, and that is you! And your problem is dealing with the truth.

  24. http://venturebeat.com/2014/04/23/nasa-on-the-trail-of-climate-change-watches-african-rainforest-turn-brown/

    [It will be a profound irony if NASA’s lasting value will be to document from space the planet’s decline.

    Case in point: The agency released today a scientific visualization video showing the transition of the entire African rainforest in the Congo from green to a drought-stricken brown.

    The visualization is based on data from NASA satellites, and the related study is published today in the scientific journal Nature. The rainforest is the second largest in the world, after the Amazon.

    . . . Study co-author Sassan Saatchi from NASA’s famed Jet Propulsion Lab in Pasadena, Calif., clearly laid the blame on climate change.

    He told news media that forests in the Congo tend to be “resilient to moderate climate change because they have been exposed to dry conditions in the past few hundred years.”

    But this is different.

    “The recent climate anomalies as a result of climate change and warming of the Atlantic Ocean,” Saatchi said, “have created several droughts in the tropics, causing major impacts on forests.”]

  27. …and, of course, a quick google shows that if Prince Charles ever said something that silly, no reporter actually reported it.

    But we’ll just take the word of a random climate change denialist, because they’ve proven themselves to be totally reliable sources.

    In fact, what Charles said was, back in 2009

    [Prince Charles told 200 business leaders in Rio de Janeiro that the world has “less than 100 months” to save the planet. ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/4980347/Global-warming-has-reached-a-defining-moment-Prince-Charles-warns.html

    So not ‘the end of the world’, although I suppose someone either ignorant of language or with an axe to grind would argue the terms are synonymous (they’re not).

    Now, there might be a little hyperbole in there – it’s not the planet which needs saving, it’s us as a species – what he was saying accords with what the scientists have been saying – that if we don’t act soon, stabilising the world’s temperature at 2 degrees above the norm will become impossible, and temperatures will rise faster than we can possibly adjust to them.

    (The good news is that that will most likely lead to the collapse of civilisation, and thus we’ll stop emitting anyway, and the world can get back to normal sometime in the following century…)

    As for Al Gore, the only reference I can find to anything like that quote is from a Rush Limbaugh rant, which quotes somebody else quoting Al Gore —

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2006/01/27/algore_we_have_ten_years_left_before_earth_cooks

    (And why, I ask, do people who call themselves ‘sceptics’ accept such dodgy sources? Whenever I follow their links they seem to lead to either amateur blogs or to articles which say something quite different to what they’ve said the article did).

    Again, even in this rather dodgy excuse for a ‘news article’ it’s clear that Gore is talking about stopping the temperatures from rising, not from the total destruction of the planet as we know it.

    There’s a thing you should do before accepting that what a random on the internet tells you is true.

    It’s called ‘research’.

    It might be an interesting thing for ModLib to experiment with.

  28. Everything

    Ah yes, Mark Steyn the world renowned “climatologist”. 🙂

    […Steyn left school in 1978 at age 18 and worked as a disc-jockey before becoming musical theatre critic at the newly established The Independent in 1986]

  30. Aha – and a bit more googling shows that Prince Charles’ statement (surprise, surprise) has been misrepresented —

    [“It will result in vast movements of people escaping either flooding or droughts, in uncertain production of food and lack of water and in increasing social instability and potential conflict,” he said. “We have very little time left if we want to sustain life on Earth as we actually know it.”

    The current financial slump would be “nothing” compared to the “full effects which global warming will have on the world economy,” he said.

    “We have less than 100 months to alter our behaviour before we risk catastrophic climate change,” Prince Charles added.]

    So nothing about the planet needing saving – he wasn’t even guilty of that hyperbolic flourish – but a quite sensible statement about the risk of catastrophic climate change.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/mar/12/prince-charles-brazil-climate-change-warning

    (It’s like Chinese whispers – someone misreports what PC says and the denier industry then accept that without checking).

  31. [At present, we are allowing very high rates of growth in outer suburbs, without the critical infrastructure people need to live healthy and safe lives. Schools, health and social services, and emergency housing need to be provided, just as much as water, sewers, roads and rubbish collection.]

    [. . . Unlike the stereotype of criminal violence being concentrated in the big bad central city, rural areas and outer suburbs have higher rates of domestic violence in every Australian state. Luke Batty was murdered in an urban fringe area with one of the highest police-reported rates of domestic violence in Victoria. Other urban fringe areas such as Whittlesea in Melbourne’s northern suburbs record much higher rates than other parts of the city.

    Many outer suburbs lack refuges for victims of domestic violence.

    Outer suburbs concentrate three types of risk. Women who are pregnant or have young children are most at risk from male partners and often find it most difficult to escape violence. While housing stress is no excuse for violence, it does exacerbate family tensions and lack of affordable housing makes it more difficult for women to get away from abusers.

    And outer suburbs are critically lacking in the kinds of social support services – health, legal, emergency shelters, family counselling – that might make a life-and-death difference.

    Yet, according to several recent reports, federal funding for these services – housing in particular – has been cut. Federal funding under a homelessness prevention initiative (most homeless women are victims of violence) was due to run out in June.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-23/whitzman-urban-planning-and-a-path-out-of-domestic-violence/5406644

  32. [Former New South Wales Labor premier Neville Wran’s state funeral will be held on May 1 at Sydney’s Town Hall.

    Mr Wran, who led New South Wales from May 1976 to July 1986, died on Sunday at the age of 87.

    NSW Premier Mike Baird has again paid tribute to Mr Wran, callng him a “towering figure” whose many political achievements had a positive and lasting impact on the state.

    An online condolence book has been created on the State Government website to allow members of the public to pay their respects.
    ]

  34. Saul Eslake on Abbott’s PPL

    [Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief economist Saul Eslake also questioned the merits of the paid parental leave scheme, saying he was not convinced by the Coalition’s arguments for its plan.

    “There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that the single biggest factor containing (sic) {constraining} female participation, especially by women who are of child-bearing and rearing age, is the cost of childcare and the government isn’t proposing to do anything new about that,” Mr Eslake told ABC TV’s 7.30 on Wednesday night.]

  37. Good Morning

    I think the Dr tax will do for Labor what the carbon tax did for the LNP.

    That with pensioners getting news of how Abbott is attacking them will leave a lasting memory.

    This at the same time as gas prices are going up by $200 a year or so.

    For Labor a return to Mr Rudd’s kitchen table economics may be in order

  38. [35….WeWantPaul]

    Labor have done “whatever it takes” to make themselves unelectable in WA. It’s working. No one should be surprised.

  39. [37
    guytaur

    For Labor a return to Mr Rudd’s kitchen table economics may be in order]

    Rudd had a chance to fix the budget but actually made it worse. The LNP are going to completely wreck the place. Just watch. My guess is they will get away with it too.

  41. [The LNP are going to completely wreck the place. Just watch. My guess is they will get away with it too.]

    That’s what makes their destruction all the more depressing. I can’t believe people buy into their lies. But just look at WA to see the reality.

  43. WA politicians take note

    “@mscott: Radio ratings out today. Perth loves @triplej – No.2 in the market – No 1 with people 18-24, 25-39.”

  46. [lizzie

    Fairfax is also reporting that the debris is not from the Malaysian plane]

    Such a shame, and so surprising too.

  48. Everything @ 10
    “Yeah….we could buy a quarter of an NBN for that!”

    Half, actually.

    And a Labor NBN will totally repay its debt.

    What cost recovery methods do you suggest we could use with the JSF? Rent them out, maybe?

  49. [Labor have done “whatever it takes” to make themselves unelectable in WA]

    Bit obscure for me I’m not at all sure what you mean.

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