ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The second big-sample ReachTEL automated phone poll in consecutive weeks confirms last week’s result on voting intention, but also finds majority support for the deficit tax.

The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 13
1 2 … 13

  1. If the Budget is as bad as it’s hyped up to be these figures could be even worse for the LieNP next week. Kharma!

  2. So the people support the imposition of an increase in income tax for higher income earners but do not support this government for imposing it.

    This is very serious. It means, no matter how strong and plausible the argument that the government makes for its introduction, we do not forgive them for doing it.

    In fact, if they decided to withdraw it in two year’s time, we may well punish them even more because we think it should remain (not, unfortunately, a question asked in the poll).

  3. Or perhaps we do not forgive this government despite them doing something we support.

    Maybe this government should have proposed lifting the Medicare levy and not touched pensions, bulk-billing or other social security entitlements which we consistently have told successive governments that we like and support.

    Problem with that is their ideology gets in the way.

  6. Maude

    [Problem with that is their ideology gets in the way.]

    Yep.

    Abbott and Associates will not be forgiven for their extreme RW themes despite being put in a position where they had to make some pragmatic decisions.

    The ‘talk’ they use has pissed the majority of voters ‘off’.

  7. badcat

    Nutz on the line.

    (On good news – the mechanic has finished in his Teutonic way. Out to Fyshwick to retrieve Ms Germany this morning.)

  8. Bad polling is the test of governments, do they persist with unpopular policies (thatcher,Howard, Abbott?) or bend and break( modern labor and the Gillardine).

    We will know in the next 90 days.

  9. [ CTar1

    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 7:08 am | Permalink

    badcat

    Nutz on the line.

    (On good news – the mechanic has finished in his Teutonic way. Out to Fyshwick to retrieve Ms Germany this morning.)
    ]

    ——————————————————

    Ok – well take it eazy – no blitzkreig driving with those hot new $30 a pop iridium plugs installed !!!!!

  10. badcat – You know you have the right mechanic for a Merc when he reports in saying he’s ‘zatified’ with the car now!

  11. [ CTar1

    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 7:16 am | Permalink

    badcat – You know you have the right mechanic for a Merc when he reports in saying he’s ‘zatified’ with the car now!
    ]

    —————————————————–

    Like Joe Hockey and Boxhead Cormann – there will be a picture in the SMH of owner Herman and chief mecahanic Hans from the Benz Servicing Centre sitting back each puffing on a big cigar

    “Ha Ha Hans – good job, now ve go have that big vacation in Berlin after emptying Ctar1’s wallet “

  12. It was May 8 the other day. This was the 69th anniversary of the collapse of the Nazi regime. I tweeted as follows:

    It’s now 69 years since the Nazi regime collapsed. Let’s recall the blood lust of unfettered capitalism & the courage of those who fought it.

    Admittedly, the language is florid and a tweet such as that is unlikely to issue from anyone who isn’t an avowing lefty, but really, it wasn’t, to my mind, at least, controversial. There’s little controversy amongst serious folk that the Nazi regime was capitalist, at least in the sense that the German capitalist class of the time supported it in preference to the other options at the time, or that they profited mightily from its policy, at least until they were ruined by the losing war. Companies like Daimler Benz used slave labour. The phrase ‘unfettered capitalism’ seems apt.

    As it goes, a fellow known to this blog ad Sinclair Davidson retweeted it, releasing whole hordes of figurative flying monkeys, who were not slow in venting their angst. People self-describing as “conservative” “libertarian” “patriot” “vet” “Texan” “republican” sporting images of themselves in front of US flags holding guns variously assailed me for what they took to be my poisonous impact on children, my ignorance of History, my unfitness to teach and so on.

    The most commonly advanced objection was that the Nazis were really soc!alists, and hadn’t I noticed that the word was in the name of the party? Many of them must have thought they were the first to think of this stunning objection. It may even be so that some imagined I hadn’t been aware of this and had never wondered how this might be so. It was amusing, initially, though ultimately, more than a little sad.

    Others objected that capitalists had fought the Nazis, having failed to think through the implication of Bolsheviks splitting with Mensheviks over the question of taking a side in imperialist wars. Again, coming from folk who accused me of not knowing my History, it was breathtaking.

    Still others complained that capitalists were fettered in Germany because they couldn’t do free trade, or cited H!tler condemning proletarian emancipation as the most brutal form of capitalism, again without seeing that this really didn’t help their case for Nazis as soc!alists at all. Some cited him saying capitalism knew no national boundaries forgetting that every capitalist country asserts them under the rubric of sovereignty. Again, this was breathtaking.

    One self-described libertarian asserted that teachers like me were a compelling argument for privatising education — presumably on the basis that this measure would offer a more robust Cordon sanitaire for children against intellectual or cultural deviance. Again, the irony was lost on him.

    You never know what you will find on Twitter. Many of the objectors had fewer than 20 tweets, indicating perhaps that they had set these accounts up merely to troll me, and impress me with how many folk were violently offended by my apparent assertion that bloodlust was part and parcel with capitalism.

    I resist the inference that US capitalism has disproportionately damaged the minds of Americans, relative to capitalism in other jurisdictions, but episodes like this do incline me to this view. The outpouring of bile, ignorance and angst that this fairly uncontroversial claim provoked from people overwhelmingly identifying with the most barbaric of human impulses is hard to ignore.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The GBNGPT! Oldies will rail at this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/joe-hockey-waves-goodbye-to-the-medicare-kingswood-20140509-zr89z.html
    And this one’s going down well too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pension-plan-backlash-20140509-3813t.html
    Peter FitzSimons continues his crusade on sporting head injuries.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/nrls-handling-of-concussion-case-wrongheaded-20140509-zr7g6.html
    The ICAC maaaates report from Kate McClymont.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/donor-asked-for-barry-ofarrells-home-address-to-deliver-3000-bottle-of-wine-icac-20140509-zr7vh.html
    Mike Seccombe’s take on ICAC. He’s always worth reading.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2014/05/10/the-party-donors-icac-doesnt-see/1399644000#.U21JNfmSxe8
    First Dog on the Moon lets rip.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cartoon/2014/may/09/australian-politics-australia
    Geoff Shaw. What an embarrassment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/tummy-eggs-multiply-antiabortion-mp-geoff-shaw-goes-viral-20140509-zr7xg.html
    I suppose something had to be done. The full preferential voting system does truly deliver one vote one value but it has been destroyed by recent tactics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-legislative-agenda-in-danger-from-proposed-changes-to-senate-voting-20140509-zr862.html
    Lenore Taylor hits out at Abbott’s infrastructure plans.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/09/tony-abbotts-grand-infrastructure-plan-may-be-an-expensive-road-to-nowhere
    Tony Abbott – an unserious man.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2014/05/10/tony-abbott-unserious-man/1399644000#.U21LaPmSxe8

  16. Section 2 . . .

    Our George Bludger gets a mention in this story on Cormann and Hockey caught smoking cigars.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-and-finance-minister-mathias-cormann-pictured-smoking-cigars-ahead-of-tough-budget-20140509-zr8i3.html
    Inside the mind of a paedophile – from The Saturday Paper.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/society/2014/05/10/inside-the-mind-paedophile/1399644000#.U21KZfmSxe8
    Well I hope Palmer gives him a knuckle sandwich!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-agenda-rests-on-christopher-pynes-social-skills-20140509-zr8dp.html
    Looks like Rolf Harris is GORN!
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/rolf-harris-court-told-of-darker-side-20140509-zr8lh.html
    Richard Ackland looks at the Packer/Gyngell bout.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/james-packer-and-david-gyngell-a-straight-left-out-of-the-field-of-play-20140508-zr6z6.html
    A good article on the damage boarding school life can do.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-boarding-school-and-the-damage-done-20140509-zr7e3.html
    Great satire from Mike Carlton.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-join-the-mike-carlton-forum-20140508-zr6yr.html
    The RBA believes that the budget will drive unemployment up further.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-threatens-to-increase-unemployment-20140509-380lw.html

  18. Fran

    I fear many of our “erudite” posters on this site would be only one whisker removed from the sort of tweets you received. Many indeed most equate the NAZIs and socialists, because of a word in a name, which is sillier that assuming that the current Liberal party is in any sense liberal or the National Party in any sense national rather than regional.

  21. Just got a leak of part of Hockey’s budget speech.

    “For those concerned about the cost of the $6 co-payment for doctor visits might I remind you all that $6 is just the cost of three or four puffs on a Montecristo Grand Corona”

  23. [“For those concerned about the cost of the $6 co-payment for doctor visits might I remind you all that $6 is just the cost of three or four puffs on a Montecristo Grand Corona”]

    I hope Shorten uses one or two similar gems in his reply on Thursday. Joe Blow might not get it but the scribes and cartoonists will and it should appear in their work.

  24. I agree, ESJ – how they react to bad polling is the test of a government.

    Bad polling was why Howard supported changes to the gun laws, why he cut the petrol exise and then froze it, why he went to the 2007 election supporting action on climate change (as he admits himself), why he rolled back aspects of the GST and why he commited to ‘stopping the boats’. (Just a few of the ones I can think of at the moment).

    I don’t think Abbott has the same political nous.

  25. DTT

    Indeed. I tried asking some of them whether they thought the DPRK or DK was democratic, but they mostly ignored the challenge or accused me of deflecting.

  27. Just saw the photo of Tweedledum and Tweedledee puffing away. Absolute gold!

    All Shorten has to do is stay on message – keep it focused and relevant and just keep saying it.

    Got a budget issues – keep the mining and carbon tax and ditch the PPL.

  29. fran

    [Admittedly, the language is florid and a tweet such as that is unlikely to issue from anyone who isn’t an avowing lefty, but really, it wasn’t, to my mind, at least, controversial..]

    Yes, the lack of controversy in that statement sparked about two pages of commentary here.

    As far as I can recall, it wasn’t controversial – everyone concerned thought you were wrong.

  30. …and there’s a huge difference between a government not being democratic in nature and representing ‘unfettered capitalism.’ Indeed, some of the least democratic governments we have known have been communist.

    [I tried asking some of them whether they thought the DPRK or DK was democratic, but they mostly ignored the challenge or accused me of deflecting.]

    Funny about that.

  31. According to the CSIRO, a ten cent increase in the price of petrol is equivalent to a $40 a tonne carbon price

  32. I have been reading Peter Hartcher’s comments on the Kingswood Medicare model.

    We are fortunate that our GP always gives full value for a short consultation. I have never attended one of those sausage machine five minute ones.

    However, I have not yet seen an explanation about the upfront fee for a “long consultation”. This is necessary for various reviews (example, an application for Carer supplement). Will the upfront fee double, or even treble, according to the length of consultation booked???

  33. I really should look at the whole thing, instead of just randomly objecting to the bits that stand out —

    [..There’s little controversy amongst serious folk that the Nazi regime was capitalist, at least in the sense that the German capitalist class of the time supported it in preference to the other options at the time, or that they profited mightily from its policy, at least until they were ruined by the losing war. Companies like Daimler Benz used slave labour. The phrase ‘unfettered capitalism’ seems apt.]

    Tsk. Firstly, that ‘serious folk’ bit – a classic piece of poor argument. In other words, it’s only frivolous fools like myself who would disagree with you. The very fact I disagree with you means I am a frivolous fool.

    And you see what you did with the rest of the argument? You use the term ‘unfettered capitalism’ and then water it down…apparently all a government needs is some businesses to support them and benefit from their actions and they’re unfettered capitalists.

    So you’ve defined ‘unfettered capitalism’ to mean something you know it isn’t (or you wouldn’t have qualified your terminology) because you can’t sustain your argument otherwise (and thus might have to, you know, admit you were wrong, or something).

    [Others objected that capitalists had fought the Nazis, having failed to think through the implication of Bolsheviks splitting with Mensheviks over the question of taking a side in imperialist wars. Again, coming from folk who accused me of not knowing my History, it was breathtaking. ]

    What? A couple of organisations falling out over whether or not to support the war automatically means that all capitalists supported Hitler?

    You know that’s sloppy thinking, fran. Honestly.

    [Still others complained that capitalists were fettered in Germany because they couldn’t do free trade, or cited H!tler condemning proletarian emancipation as the most brutal form of capitalism, again without seeing that this really didn’t help their case for Nazis as soc!alists at all.]

    Possibly because they weren’t arguing the socialist thing, but about the unfettered capitalism thing. So you had to quickly slap up a straw man or two to avoid actually dealing with their point – which was that capitalism was definitely fettered.

    [..how many folk were violently offended by my apparent assertion that bloodlust was part and parcel with capitalism]

    Well is it part of your assertion or not? It appears to be, but you’re too twee to say so.

    Blood lust is part and parcel of the human condition (alas) which is why it occurs under virtually all ‘-isms’, forms of government, and (most if not all) religions.

  34. [A new national security agency combining Customs and Immigration officers will oversee Australia’s borders, in what the Government is describing as “sweeping new changes” to how Australia’s borders are managed.

    Australian Border Force (ABF) will begin operating in July next year and will act as the nation’s single frontline enforcement agency.]

    I thought Australian Border Force was a reality TV show filmed at Sydney airport showing people getting caught with contraband.

    And while Scoot is creating a another bureaucracy, the Defence Dept is cutting jobs.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23381386/defence-bureaucrats-face-axe/

  37. Morning all. Thanks BK, and I second Confessions endorsement of the Mike Carlton column. The description of Liberal efforts to sell the great big new taxes is hilarious too. If only the effect on poorer Australians will be as amusing.

  38. This sacking of the transport department chief is SA news but one that caused quite a stir yesterday in our office, and reflected poorly on Jay Weatherall in the opinion of all who discussed it.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-09/rod-hook-sacked-fred-hansen-jay-weatherill/5440992?section=sa

    Departmental CEO changes are normal with the start of a new government but the speed and manner of this one was not. Rod Hook achieved plenty and defended the government a lot in the media. I have never heard anyone in Adelaide say he was incompetent. This reflected a ruthless side of Jay Weatherall in office we have not yet seen.

  39. The lungs are amazing organs. Having had your breath taken away not just once but many times, Fran, it seems you got it back again and now run long-winded and waste it instead.

  40. Is this glut of pre-budget polling the “before budget” benchmark to set the scene for the “after budget” polling?

  41. [A DATABASE used to bust “ice” manufacturing rings is under threat at a time when police and health experts are urging it be expanded.

    The monitoring system has allowed police and pharmacists to track pseudoephedrine purchases since 2007.

    The cold and flu medication is a key ingredient in making methamphetamine.

    “ProjectStop” allows pharmacists to enter the driver’s licence details of those who buy pseudoephedrine into a database used by investigators.

    But the program is at risk beyond this year because of an absence of state and federal government funding.]

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2272925/drug-database-is-under-threat/?cs=11

  42. Fran

    “how many folk were violently offended by my apparent assertion that bloodlust was part and parcel with capitalism”

    Your assertion was not “apparent”. It was explicit.

    Is this what you meant …. “how many folk were apparently violently offended by my assertion that bloodlust was part and parcel with capitalism”?

    Also, your use of “bloodlust” was certainly extrem provokanten. and showed an insensitivity regarding matters Nazi.

    I suspect that tief in deiner Seele you are satisfied about stirring up this hornets’ nest.

  43. [41
    zoomster

    A DATABASE used to bust “ice” manufacturing rings is under threat at a time when police and health experts are urging it be expanded.]

    Not to worry, zoomster. The LNP are taking us back to the 1920’s when ice was just frozen water.

  44. Fran 12

    My sympathy on the abusive comments you received for your post. That being said, I also disagreed with your post at the time. I think that, while politics and economics are closely related, they still need to be distinguished. You can have capitalism with democracy or dictatorship, and the same with socialism. The dictatorship bit concerns me more than the capitalist/socialist distinction. IMO that was what was wrong with nazism – the loss of democracy, the rule of law and personal rights – not its alliance with German capitalism. It has happened in socialist countries too – witness Stalin and Mao.

    Piketty I think sums up well the faults of unregulated capitalism. Yet he does not suggest socialism as a solution. The solution is regulation. That requires democracy, the rule of law and personal rights to be respected. Keeping those things healthy is an eternal struggle for any informed citizenry, whether in a capitalist or socialist system of economic management.

    Have a good day all.

  45. zoomster

    My general impression is that the Coalition policy is to cut funding for anything that is not a “direct service” and not a concrete “thing” that can be used for show and tell. They have said as much.

    Therefore preventive programs are out, but new sportsgrounds are in. Science is out, but police on the beat are in. Welfare is out, planting temporary forests is in.

    Such low aspirations for the country.

  47. Socrates
    [The solution is regulation..the rule of law]

    Who makes the laws and how does lawmaking help?

    Hint:: currently we have Abbott and his mates officially as lawmakers, fronting for Rupert and Gina types and plagiarising the IPA manifesto.

  49. Morning all

    Just had a look ag Qanda line up for Monday
    Monday, 12 May
    Sharman Stone – Liberal MP
    Alannah MacTiernan – Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Regional Development & Infrastructure
    David Marr – Journalist and commentator
    Innes Willox – CEO, Australian Industry Group
    Satyajit Das – Finance Expert

  50. Anne Henderson gives the government 110/100 on border protection, in case anyone was wondering. I’m off to practise the flute.

Comments Page 1 of 13
1 2 … 13

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *