ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The second big-sample ReachTEL automated phone poll in consecutive weeks confirms last week’s result on voting intention, but also finds majority support for the deficit tax.

The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. ESJ

    I am sooooooooooooooo looking forward to the day of reckoning. It is going to be beautiful. The pitiful screams of Liberal and National crooks hoist on their own petard.

    All to Abbott’s wonderful wrecking ball standards, of course.

    Wonderful.

  2. Pity poor Justice Dyson Heydon, Royal Commisioner into ‘union corruption’.

    His first star witness, all day on Monday streamed live into our homes should we choose to connect, is Ralph Blewitt. Only Julie Bishop gives the man any credibility, but will he prove to be a witness of merit?

    These Blewitt character references from his sister and ex wife are amongst the mildest.

    [Mr Blewitt, a confessed patron of Balinese brothels, has admitted he’s “no angel”.

    On Friday, he provided Victoria Police with statements about the AWU affair, on the condition they could not be used against him in court.

    But his younger sister Penelope Lennon, who said she been estranged from Mr Blewitt for 18 years, said she wouldn’t trust her brother’s evidence.

    “I haven’t changed my mind. He is a crook,” she said today.

    “They should lock him up and throw away the key.”

    Mr Blewitt told the Sunday Herald Sun: “I have a sister and others tipping the bucket on me right now. It’s a private family matter. We haven’t seen each other for 35 years.”

    Mr Blewitt’s ex-wife, who asked not to be named, also confirmed she had no idea Mr Blewitt had bought a house in Melbourne in the 1990s with union cash, even though they were married at the time. Asked if she trusted Mr Blewitt, she replied: “No further than I could throw him.”]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/former-australian-workers-union-official-ralph-blewitt-is-just-a-crook-says-sister/story-e6frf7kx-1226523407269

  3. Read Tim Fischer’s book the other week on Trains. If only our current DPM was anything like Fischer and his love for trains.

  4. ESJ

    Q: Can the government reduce the number of people on DSP?
    A: Yes

    Q: What is the most productive way of doing this?
    A: Provide access to educational opportunities

    Q: What is the government’s education policy?
    A: Increase cosT of university place

    Q: Outcome for people on DSP
    A: Little to no improvement as the cost of education becomes too excessive

    Thus the outcome will be for all the talk there will be little positive outcome, of course if the government did actually have a plan it could easily move a quarter of people from DSP to the workforce.

    When the number of people on DSP hits a million, maybe then someone will actually put in place the necessary policies.

  5. And what was this matter from 35 years ago?

    [Now his sister has spoken up with Mark Riley on the Seven Network, we have been released from this constraint and can report the sordid and disturbing truth claimed by his victim:

    Ralph Blewitt raped his sister.

    Penelope Lennon has bravely spoken out about the trauma because she was so disgusted, outraged and horrified about her evil brother being considered a font of truth by one side of politics and some in the media.

    Blewitt has returned to Malaysia rather than face these new and chilling claims.]

    http://www.vexnews.com/2012/11/the-chilling-truth-ralph-blewitt-raped-his-sister/

  6. You may have a point mexicanbeemer.

    It is a terrible thing – for people who wish to work to be without employment.

  7. Gosh, politicians making enemies as they climb the greasy pole – who would have thunk it?

    What do you think Malcolm Turnbull would say about Abbott?
    What do you think Brandis would say about Howard? (oh we already know that one)

    What do you think Bernardi would say about Pyne? Or Pyne about Bernardi?

    What do you think Truss would say about Joyce?

  8. [Or what about the QLD Audit Commission that had Peter Costello on it.]

    The one that recommended a debt levy? Its too funny Pete recommends it, then his business mates tell him to oppose it, so he does.

  9. ESJ

    Well it is true that the disability is often a barrier but if you add a lack of education to the mix all you do is add to the barrier created by the first.

    This needs a collaborative approach which must include education and the employers.

  10. ESJ

    right. So to get a figure of 7%, you have to exclude children and pensioners.

    So it’s not 7% of ‘Australians’ as you claim.

  11. [413
    Edwina StJohn
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 6:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Andrew Landeryou sprocket, really ?]

    It was simply a handy place where the transcript between Ch 7s Mark Riley, who I assume meets your standard for journalistic evidence, was relayed.

    I’m looking forward to a future RC into the Liberal Party Dirt Unit. Perhaps Dyson J might segue down that path?

  12. @414

    All the jobs that I have applied for over the years, requires more than just Education, Any job requires at least 2-5 years past experience.

    Especially so in the IT Sector.

  13. [418
    Rex Douglas
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 6:15 pm | PERMALINK
    I’ll see your Andrew Landeryou and raise you Michael Smith]

    I see Michael Smith is now officially on Rupert’s payroll at the Government Gazette. Probably had a good word put in by mate Lord Brandis, who allegedly ‘dominated the dance floor’ at Michael Smith’s wedding.

    All the rotten eggs in one basket on the Central Coast.

  14. [408….mexicanbeemer]

    The LNP have already taken the rules on unemployment benefits for those up 25 yo back to the 1920’s. This is no more than the arbitrary punishment of the young in the name of “mutual obligation.”

    They are going to dismantle Medicare and Commonwealth health spending in general while also gutting Commonwealth spending on both schools and post-school education as well. They clearly want to undo the commitment to pensions for the aged and to income support for the disabled.

    Soon enough, they will look to privatise those parts of the health, education, welfare apparatus that they cannot dump on the States.

  15. Zoomster – ESJ was talking about people of working age, and that’s reasonable – the DSP doesn’t apply to children or old age pensioners.

    Talking about the percentage of adults being permanently disabled and equating that to percentage “of Australians” is not unreasonable. While the proportions will vary slightly it’s not totally wrong to think they will be similar.

    But simply excluding adults not looking for work is bogus. I think ruawake had the right figure – somewhere around 5% of working age people are on DSP.

    None of this changes the nature of the question – is any particular number high or low or about right? Until there is some evidence that there are large numbers of people on DSP who aren’t entitled to be, talking about the overall number as if it means something is silly.

  16. Zoidy

    Yes experience is important for all job seekers which is why any real plan to move the long term into the workforce needs to include ways of building experience hence the need for employers to be more actively involved.

  17. ESJ

    So much Liberal and Nationals corrupt behaviour over the years. It’s coming, and when it arrives there will be jail time.

  18. briefly

    Furthermore the current policy isn’t going to be successful without a more proactive plan, something this minister is not capable of developing or implementing.

  19. We do actually need to encourage people to move North in this country. There is more work to be had north of the Brisbane Line.

  20. Come now Boerwar – jail time ?

    Former ALP National President – Goulburn Supermax resident
    Former ALP Economics Committe Chair – Appealing sentence
    Former ALP Speaker – Fighting criminal charges
    Royal Commissions x 2

  21. Come now Boerwar – jail time ?

    Former ALP National President – Goulburn Supermax resident
    Former ALP Economics Committe Chair – Appealing sentence
    Former ALP Speaker – Fighting criminal charges
    Royal Commissions x 2

  22. ESJ

    Yes there might be for trade qualified people but what about those who are not trade qualified.

    A trade qualification requires the completion of a trade certificate.

    There is little to no work for unskilled or low skilled people anywhere in Australia.

  23. Its 7% of labor force participants, its 5% if you take everybody between 15-64.

    The former figure is a better measure.

    Do you think 5 or 7% of adults were disabled in 1960?

    Why are there much higher rates for certain ethnic groups? Are they just more clumsy or prone to depression?

  24. ESJ

    Due to improved medical treatment that yes i would expect that there would be more disabled people today than the 1960s

  25. Edwina

    Did you realise that if you were diagnosed with breast cancer tomorrow and had to undergo a radical mastectomy and a years worth of radiation therapy and chemotherapy, you would not be entitled to the DSP?

    Thought not.

  26. 7% labour force participation

    ESJ

    That seems to indicate that the 7% would be the percentage of the workforce with a disability, if so they wont be receiving DSP.

  27. @425

    Which never happens, and especially won’t happen under this Government.

    Employers and Employees want money first and for most to cover their costs of taking someone on, Smaller business also require this, and they also need extra resources set aside.

    Having being involved everything from Small Business, TAFE, applying to University, Job Searching, Work for the Dole.

    I seem to remember Abbott & Co complaining about how people are choosy with applying for Jobs, and not moving further than 90 minutes away.

    My younger brother, and my dad (before his accident nearly 10 years ago?) is proof of that this is a myth.

    Both of them had jobs up north in places like Emerald to get a job, but could not stay up there for long due to family commitments.

    I’ve applied for jobs far as opposite side of Brisbane CBD, where I would have to take at least 2 trains to get to.

    I see this on the regular bases.

    Yet, this Government is hell bent on cutting it’s own costs for ideology reasons.

    It’s pretty pathetic really.

    Whatever plan they have for us, on DSP, or any other, will simply not work, just like they didn’t work under John Howard.

  28. Majority support for the deficit tax is actually good news for labor because it shows an appetite out there to soak the rich.
    At the next election, Shortie will be able to campaign for the abolition of the $6 surcharge (if implemented). That will be very powerful.

  29. The Speaker is regarded as a ministerial equivalent arent they?

    Its fair to say he was part of the ALP executive in the 2010-2013 era isnt it?

  30. I thought Speaker was a creature of the members of the HoR.

    What every failings or pluses Slipper had, being a member of the ALP was not one of them.

    He was, of course, for long periods of time, the endorsed candidate and successful in the colours of the conservatives.

    That he was able to keep friendships going with his LNP friends and have some of note come to his wedding, does not alter the fact that he fell into the Dark Side as far as the LNP is concerned.

    He was not the first to change allegiance and he will not be the last.

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