Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again fails to record evidence of a budget backlash on voting intention, but finds Tony Abbott is now considered out of touch, untrustworthy, and less good in a crisis.

The regular weekly Essential Research is the only new national poll this week following last week’s post-budget deluge, and true to the pollster’s form it fails to reflect a big shift evident elsewhere. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48 for a fourth consecutive week, and it is fact down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens up one to 9% and Palmer United steady on 5%. Also featured are semi-regular questions on leaders’ attributes, finding a sharp decline in Tony Abbott’s standing since six weeks ago, including an 11 point rise on “out of touch with ordinary people” to 67%, a 10-point drop on “good in a crisis” to 35% and an 11-point drop on “trustworthy” to 29%, while Bill Shorten has gone up in respondents’ estimations, enjoying nine-point lifts on “understands the problems facing Australia” (to 53%) and “a capable leader” (to 51%).

The poll also canvassed sources of influence on the major parties, finding the Coalition too influenced by property developers (53% too much to 18% not enough), mining companies (52% to 20%) and the media (44% to 24%). Labor’s worst ratings were for unions (47% to 24%) and the media (46% to 18%), and it too scored a net negative rating on property developers (39% to 21%). Both parties were deemed most insufficiently responsive to students, welfare groups and average citizens (in last place for both), with employer groups also in the mix for Labor. Other findings show strong opposition to increasing the GST to 12% (32% support to 58% oppose) or expanding it to cover fresh fruit and vegetables (18% support to 75% oppose); 51% concerned about Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations being closed to the public and the media against 37% not concerned; 37% supporting an agreement to resettle refugees in Cambodia versus 39% opposed; and only 5% thinking the government should be funding religious chaplains only, with 17% opting for secular social workers only and 37% opting for both.

Another poll nugget emerged yesterday courtesy of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union, which produced a UMR Research poll of 1000 respondents in the marginal seats of La Trobe in Victoria, Forde in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales, respectively showing results of 60-40 to Labor (a swing of 14%), 58-42 to Labor (12.4%) and 50-50 (3%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,627 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Matter of public important will be… Liberals using taxpayer money to lie to them some more about the way in which they have been creamed.

  14. [So no advertising campaign says Abbott. Let’s see if he’s lying about that too.]

    Did he say no advertising or no gov funding used in advertising?

  15. The loss of consumer confidence is apparent everywhere with retailer launching in to early sales as one indicator.

    Today’s RP data housing price report shows house prices have dropped 0.9% in a week since the budget and 1.3% over the last month.

  16. But then she changes her mind, asks the Treasurer whether he was reflecting on a person, said Treasurer agrees with Burke’s original POO and withdraws.

    Absolute shambles.

    Shorten gets a yellow.

  20. Messes? Fires? Kitchens? Stinking carcasses?

    Jesus wept. No wonder the Malaysians left. Over there if you insult the Speaker you get the bamboo up the bum.

  23. [56
    Kinkajou

    Joe’s right, labor should block everything]

    Labor should reject the budget in every respect. There is nothing in it that deserves support and to carry it is to share some of the odium. To the extent the LNP believe in their proposals, they should be forced to argue for them, to defend them, to sacrifice themselves to their errors. Labor should then march the LNP into defeat in the Senate and to their political disintegration.

  24. Fran, from the last thread:

    [Allowing that we agree to tax ourselves at some level, the main design criteria of the tax system should be it orders production and distribution in ways that maximise economic welfare.]

    How do you measure economic welfare, which is an abstract concept, without resorting to utility or some other metaphysical construct?

  26. BW

    [As if 1600 drownings are completely irrelevant.]

    If they had been “relevant” to those devising the policy then the policy would have been called something like “asylum seeker safety policy” or “kindness to the at risk at sea policy” or some such thing. The only “kindness” was to “the security of our borders” from “boats”.

    [The tide of Greens’ crocodile tears about the drownings has gone out, now that the drowings have stopped.]

    Our distress at the loss of life was always genuine, but unlike you, apparently, we were also concerned at the misery of life/risk of death at the aggregation points, and the distress/potential loss of life amongst those in the source countries. We don’t arbitrarily draw a line that stops at the littorals between Australia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Malaysia.

    [You guys could at least have the honesty to acknowledge the facts that Morrison has stopped the boats and stopped the drownings.]

    He stopped the hope for a dignified existence. He revealed the ugly xenophobia that lurks beneathe the veneer of civility towards deviance attending our culture. He showed that mateship was merely for white folk and to paraphrase Dredd-Scott, the swarthy-skinned refugee has no rights which white men are bound to defend.

    Truth is salutary, and so I will credit Morrison with stripping away the mask and showing many of the vulnerable that we are indeed as horrible as the folk running the places they were fleeing.

    But buying into the meme that this brutality ultimately served significant human interest? No, certainly not.

  28. I can see the tactic: get Abbott et al to deny several times that they’re doing an extended advertising campaign on the Budget, and then ping them with a broken promise when they do.

    Clearly there’s some inside information here. Perhaps one of the printers? Are they Liberal Tradies or Labor Stalwarts nowadays?

  30. Chainsaw is grinning while Andrews is up. He is not grinning at Andrews who, whatever he really is, is no laughing matter.

    Andrews is extolling the virtues of working until you drop.

  32. Julia Baird ‏@bairdjulia 13m
    Reading @RobOakeshott1’s memoir, am struck by the loving way he speaks about his wife, Sara-Jane. You can tell when a bloke respects women.

  33. BB
    I think (open to be corrected) Cormann admitted yesterday that the advertising blitz was on. Left hand, right hand.

  34. If ‘Essential’ were a race horse, they’d be swabbed, and there’d be a Steward’s Inquiry into their slowness to react.

    Someone must have slipped their online panelists a collective Mogadon.

  36. Well well well, I go away for a Couple of hours, and hell breaks loose.

    Now some people on PB are actually agreeing with me to block the entire thing, about blocking the entire thing.

    Time to mass email those in the senate guys.

  46. Katter up on an argumentative point of order and is sat down. Hockey joins the argument.

    Neither mentions climate change.

    Oh. I forgot. Climate science is crap. So are insurance premiums which are rising far faster than the rate of inflation.

  49. Now discussing huge insurance hikes.

    These are the people who claim to believe in Climate Change, but then assert that it has no consequences at all.

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