Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
[The *class warfare* rant for some reason has been a winner for the tories in the past – it certainly was for howard – but this time I doubt it.]
It won’t work this time because the class that is being attacked are the less well off and they know that it is Hockey’s budget that is doing the attacking. I’m really surprised that he would be so stupid as to not understand that.
“@AustralianLabor: “For Labor…fairness and national prosperity are twins. They are inseparable. You can’t have one without the other” @billshortenmp #auspol”
“@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: This unfair Budget distorts the domestic destiny of hundreds of thousands of families #ACOSSConf2014 #auspol”
[Carabine should learn to ask the right questions.]
Carabine should learn to be a journalist.
“@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: Australians are paying their way, they do not need a lecture from an out of touch Govt #ACOSSConf2014 #auspol”
@rachelbaxendale: Trades Hall Council claiming 20K turnout: “@VicUnions: #bustthebudget 20,000 strong http://t.co/VMKi5NMv5u” #springst #auspol
“@AustralianLabor: “we can have a sustainable Budget…without creating a false Budget emergency and without punishing the vulnerable” @billshortenmp #auspol”
Busy boy has a gym workout with Hugh Jackman after his drinkies with Rupert. No wonder he doesn’t have time to meet with the World Bank and IMF heads.
Lizzie
Hockey’s attacking society ideals makes him worse, in my eyes than anything we have heard from Rabbott.
Yeah, they’re all tarred and feathered with the same brush but Hockey was cold and callous.
This was the ‘real’ Joe Hockey speaking, this was his genuine black heart moment which is so often hidden beneath his jovial facade in the media.
24 cuts away from Shorten Speech. They did not do so with Andrews
Anyway, that’s enough growling from me. 🙂
I is off!
btw: Is there anything preventing Wilson’s barrister from calling the RC a Kangaroo Court?
Will check in later.
“@LouiseCHall: Joe Hockey’s defamation case against @smh could be heard by a jury”
[CTar1
Posted Thursday, June 12, 2014 at 9:10 am | Permalink
Tikrit taken.
It’s all rosey after the democratic election in Iraq.
Will it be Basra or Baghdad next?]
The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands. Basra is mostly Shiite. If it falls Al Maliki is fukt and so is the trillion dollar ‘investment’ by the West in Iraqi democracy.
That IS why we conquered Iraq, wasn’t it?
Al Qaeda reckons the ISIS chaps are a bit outre and has turfed them out.
The ISIS are not your typical withdrawn Jane Austen heroines. They beheaded a chap for laughing at a joke. I think they were doing the old laughing your head off routine. (In Australia, for the same thing, we only suspend public broadcasters, and not by the neck, either). If they take on Baghdad it will be a major bloodbath.
The operative $64 question: For how long will the Turks restrain themselves? The silly bastards helped get all this off the ground and it has gone well beyond their control. ISIS gentlement are holding around 80 Turkish diplomats, special forces units and assorted family members hostage at the moment.
And the Turks are starting to say things like if you touch a Turkmen in Iraq, we will not be responsible for the consequences.
And if you enjoy a neocon warmonger fuktwit in full flight:
[The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands. ]
Apparently the Iraqi Shiite-led government of al-Malaki has assiduously been marginalising the Sunnis, ever since it got into power. al-Malaki himself has been deaf to US/Western entreaties to be more inclusive. So the Sunnis are getting desperate.
TURC not liking Wilson answers
It looks like Wilson is guilty of… not dotting “i’s” and crossing “t’s”.
Counsel Assisting just accused him of making things up.
Prove it, arsehole.
No coverage of 20 000 plus protest in Melbourne on News 24 so fat
[kakuru
Posted Thursday, June 12, 2014 at 11:11 am | Permalink
The ISIS have the Sunnis on their side so they are doing very well in the Sunni heartlands.
Apparently the Iraqi Shiite-led government of al-Malaki has assiduously been marginalising the Sunnis, ever since it got into power. al-Malaki himself has been deaf to US/Western entreaties to be more inclusive. So the Sunnis are getting desperate.]
Exactemente.
[Federal Politics @PoliticsFairfax 1m
Unemployed youth must apply for 40 jobs a month despite not receiving any welfare payments #auspol http://bit.ly/1loDegA ]
lizzie
That should make frictional unemployment a whole lot more economically efficient for the nation.
A very funny answer from Wilson… on legal retainers… ‘you still send the bill, I bet’.
Wilson turns it back on Counsel Assisting as to why invoices were sent, even if no work done for a few months: “Do YOU ever accept retainers? Even if you do no legal work, I bet you still send the bills!”
Boerwar
Only encourages bullshit applications.
Nice backhander to counsel assisying from Wilson.
Legal firms on retainer still send a bill even if they do no work.
Counsel swallows adjust tie and moved on …
As a uni student who was in the share accommodation merry-go-round I’m having trouble trying to remember exactly where I was living in 1992.
@lizzie/119
First step of getting rid of Welfare.
l
Yep. And makework for employers. This is utterly useless, vindictive class warfare targetted at young people by a Cabinet of silly old white men (oh, and one old white woman).
Have you seen this?
http://www.smh.com.au/world/al-gore-mother-nature-has-louder-voice-than-tony-abbott-on-climate-20140612-zs4wx.html
newmatilda @newmatilda 3m
Welcome To The Age Of Intergenerational Entitlement: The Coalition has discovered the concept of intergenerati… http://bit.ly/1pJx9MB
Counsel becalmed in heavy weather.
The whole damn budget is a declaration of class warfare by Abbott and Hockey.
Now discussing the activities of a “member” of Wilson’s association who is now conveniently passed away.
Counsel Assisting can’t prove a thing about what he actually did or didn’t do.
Doesn’t stop him trying, though.
Wilson is putting up an unexpectedly good fight here.
Over 100K of jobs “apparently” created this year.
Now lets do abit of maths.
9 months / 100,000 = ~11,111 jobs per month.
BB
Yes Wilson impressive compared to the archivist
Interesting that Hockey jumps on it:
https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/24220550/encouraging-signs-on-jobs-front-hockey/
“We were told that we were going to inherit unemployment rises of 6.25 per cent,” Mr Hockey told ABC radio.”
Andrews has this light bulb moment: let’s amalgamate all these welfare payments into a few to save administration costs (and tighten the rules so that few people qualify).
I’d say there will be more room for rorting, more work for admin, and more poverty.
*laughs*
Commissioner asks him a question. Wilson tells the Commissioner that he was wondering the same thing.
“@TheKouk: Whacko!”
@TheKouk: Shocker!”
@political_alert: Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8 per cent in May: http://t.co/vYAcMxZgHr #auspol
Unemployment steady at 5.8.
[Australia Institute
Christine Lagarde from the IMF made it clear health & education are not ‘entitlements’. Hockey disagrees http://ow.ly/xU9eC #auspol ]
@lizzie/140
“‘The government is open to criticism and debate about our budget. However, we owe it to the community to set the facts straight and articulate the reasoning behind our decisions,” the Treasurer said.”
OMFG “set facts straight”??
On what planet? Mars?
Bushfire Bill@132
Am looking forward to abbott having to front up to a RC in due course.
If he thinks he is going to just get away with all of this he is dreaming.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 1m
Since Abbott govt elected: Employment: up 94,500 (11,800 a month) Unemployed: up 23,100. Unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.8%
Dispite the Employment numbers, Unemployment is still rising, due to fact of what I said before, not enough jobs to counter the unemployment rate.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 12s
Jobs numbers actually a bit weaker: Last two months: Jobs up only 5,500
Where there changes in the participation rate?
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 54s
Please, please, no one say if it wasn’t for the participation rate falling, the unemployment rate would have risen.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/unemployment-rate-stays-steady-20140612-39yu9.html
“The participation rate fell marginally to 64.6 per cent, from 64.7 per cent and aggregate month hours worked decreased 2.1 million, or 0.1 per cent, to 1588.6 million hours.”
[Unemployed youth must apply for 40 jobs a month despite not receiving any welfare payments]
And Centrelink staff are being increased by how many to police this??
Years ago, the Howard government announced that it was upping the job seeking requirement to 4 job applications a week, up from 2.
I did a quick back of the envelope calculation and determined that (for that to be meaningful) Centrelink would need to employ around 2000 extra staff just to check the new requirements.
I haven’t heard that the present government is proposing to increase Centrelink staff numbers. If they’re not, then any proposal they put on the table re job seeker requirements is worthless.
I know people who let jobseekers put down their names on a sort of semi permanent basis, going back years in some cases. They have never, ever received a phone call from Centrelink to check if the jobseeker did, indeed, approach them.
So it’s a meaningless gesture, just meant to make job seekers feel even more despondent than they do at present.
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 1m
If participation rate was back at 1980 levels, the unemployment rate would be minus 1%… #uselessanalysis
Retweeted by sortius
James Hutchinson @j_hutch 1m
US engineer at telco conference just asked why Australian debate around NBN has focused on speed and not need.
Retweeted by sortius
Sir Don Nardella @DonNardella 3m
They are still coming! pic.twitter.com/ESem9aUdBP
[Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·2 mins
If participation rate was back at 1980 levels, the unemployment rate would be minus 1%…]
As I keep saying, comparing present unemployment rates with the past is meaningless unless you look at the whole picture..
Michael Janda @mikejanda 1m
Unemployment steady at 5.8%. Full-time jobs up, part-time down, participation rate equal lowest since March 2006. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-12/abs-unemployment-data-may/5518320?section=business …