Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Just Me

    When the summit comes around Obama will be coming down the home straight of his presidency. Getting a global agreement would be very tempting to target as a legacy of his presidency. All the ducks are likely to be in a row by next year.

  2. Re DN @778: Action on AGW being an example of this. In the event we succeed in preventing AGW, I can already hear people saying “nothing happened, did we really need to do all that, then?”

    That is what happened with thye GFC.

    In the case of Global Warming, assuming that effective international action covering most emissions can be put in place by 2020, it will probably be around 2070 before we can judge, beyond the lifetimes of most now aged over about 30.

  3. I cant stand Murdoch, but if Shorten was invited, I would expect him to attend. Why give them the distraction they so crave

  4. Rex

    Shorten has to go. He has to try and lessen the anti Labor campaign at the next election.

    He will need a very long spoon though.

  5. [ I see Abbott going to a DD because rejection of a majority of his budget. ]

    I don’t. Abbott wouldn’t win any such election, and his party must realize it.

    I think it more likely Abbott will be dumped as soon as he has repealed the carbon and mining taxes.

    Then the LNP will put in someone – hopefully someone with a few brain cells this time – to try and get them out of the budget mess he has created.

  6. bemused @ 789
    Pretty much. I would be more impressed if people included in their talk the events expected, months or years out, to be accounted for by current actions.

  7. guytaur

    Nothing to do with any future campaign. If Shorten declined the invitation, it would give the right wing an excuse to go at him for being petty smallminded etc etc

  8. @player One/810

    I don’t see anyone in the LNP ranks defines a few brain cells, especially when they don’t have a science minister.

  9. P1

    There are no moderates to fix the budget mess. That’s why I think a DD could well be on. Abbott let the cat out of the bag with his timetable for a DD. That was based on budget rejection from what I see.

  10. poroti

    Agree.

    The USA was the only real stumbling block left to global agreement. The moment they came on board the game was up for deniers everywhere.

  11. Player One@810

    I see Abbott going to a DD because rejection of a majority of his budget.


    I don’t. Abbott wouldn’t win any such election, and his party must realize it.

    I think it more likely Abbott will be dumped as soon as he has repealed the carbon and mining taxes.

    Then the LNP will put in someone – hopefully someone with a few brain cells this time – to try and get them out of the budget mess he has created.

    I agree with that but the LNP will have great difficulty coming up with anyone with credibility who is acceptable to them.

    Given they are unlikely to go for Turnbull, who do they have that is not tainted by their present mess?

  12. Surprised with the guility verdict of baden Clay. Every report of the case i had listened to, put a great deal of emphasise of no cause of death being determined

  13. victoria

    Of course its to do with future campaigns. Just look at News in 2010.

    What you say is true too of course, but could be deflected with I am not going to dinner with someone being questioned over allegations of criminality that one of his employees has been jailed for.

  14. Rex

    Easy to come on here and say what you would or would not do. It’s tougher in the real world

    Perhaps shorten is going to show solidarity with the journos who stood up to Murdoch back In the 70s

  15. victoria@822

    Surprised with the guility verdict of baden Clay. Every report of the case i had listened to, put a great deal of emphasise of no cause of death being determined

    Yes, I thought he would either be acquitted or the jury would (wrongly) go for manslaughter feeling it was a compromise position.

    I would really hate to be on a jury in a case relying on circumstantial evidence. I have difficulty with that reliance and ‘beyond reasonable doubt’.

  16. victoria

    We do seem to be in agreement on picking battles even if we have different conclusions as to why this is not a battle for Shorten to pick.

  17. Removing the CO2 will be no victory for the LNP: a CO2 price is inevitable. All those pics of happy Ministers will end up on the dartboards of the future: “hey look at these who wasted everyone’s time for 10 mins in the mid 2010s!”

  18. Victoria

    I’m a bit surprised at the verdict too but we are a long way away.

    If I was a juror would be thinking if a man can lie to his wife over breakfast about why he was home late the previous night, what else can he lie about.

    And I have had a beard for 40 years but when I did shave I never cut myself like that.

  19. Guytaur, Player1

    I don’t know if there will be a DD or a dumping of Abbott, but on balance I think the former.

    This depends on what parts of the budget are passed or not.

    But if all that is proposed to be rejected by various combinations of senate votes is in fact rejected, the flow on effect to future budgets will be enormous and a real budget emergency is on the cards. This will be a dead end brick wall and something will have to give.

    Abbott himself is arrogant/stupid enough to believe that voters will back him on a “coalition are the best economic managers” claim, in combo with “it’s all (still) Labor’s fault”.

    The question is whether there are enough coalitionists with brains/guts enough to call a stop to him leading them right over a DD cliff, and instead send him packing and change their extremist policies.

    I doubt it.

  20. “@leoniemellor: Judge: “you are sentenced to imprisonment for life.” #badenclay shaking taken away. @abcnews #badenclay”

  21. For decades, even before Hawke and Keating [remember ‘Kill Whitlam”?], the ALP has kowtowed to the power of Murdoch.
    For little or no return.
    Time to stop kowtowing – well past time actually.
    The longer they wait to loudly, consistently and publicly confront his power the longer they will be subservient to it.

  22. rossmcg

    Yes the excuse for shaving was weird. But if we apply the beyond reasonable doubt rule even on that evidence, it is a bit shaky

  23. Dio

    I did not follow the case closely. My only observations came from the news reports. Based on those, i thought it would be difficult to get guilty verdict. That is all

  24. victoria@837

    rossmcg

    Yes the excuse for shaving was weird. But if we apply the beyond reasonable doubt rule even on that evidence, it is a bit shaky

    I must not have been following it as closely as you. What was the ‘shaving evidence’ about?

  25. [You obviously would make a very poor leader. A smart leader picks his or her battles]

    victoria

    Spot on. I detest all Murdoch stands for but better for Shorten to know what he’s up against and not going would make him look extremely petty.

    After al, it is 50 years of history and lovely to think that Gough really got up Murdoch’s nose but is still around to see how far in the muck LimitedNews has fallen. Rupe is on the nose in the UK, not a major problem in the US any longer and with a concerted effort we can make him a pariah here.

  26. Bemused

    I didn’t follow it that closely but early on saw the photo of the shaving cuts and thought “bullshit”

    Perhaps he should have done a Norman Gunston and stuck some tissue on it

  27. Wonder how influential the “shaving cuts” were in the jury’s decision.

    Three vertical, irregular, parallel lines about 3cm long and about 1cm apart. A most unusually big treble nick, not perfect lines …….. must’ve been a very very blunt razor and a powerful shaving stroke.

  28. The only way for Abbott and his backers to re-set the current situation is to go to a double dissolution and win.

    They may well think that, even though the probabilty of a win is small, it’s worth trying.

    The alternative is to die the death of a thousand cuts (politically of course)

  29. psyclaw@842

    Wonder how influential the “shaving cuts” were in the jury’s decision.

    Three vertical, irregular, parallel lines about 3cm long and about 1cm apart. A most unusually big treble nick, not perfect lines …….. must’ve been a very very blunt razor and a powerful shaving stroke.

    So was it suggested they were scratch marks?

  30. DN

    [b) continue to interact (e.g. leave them uninvolved) as you have suggested has been normal procedure in the past?]

    Er, what?

    I didn’t say it was ‘normal practice’. I said in one particular situation, for one particular piece of legislation, there was no point (at that time) in negotiating with the Greens.

    Labor had negotiated with the Greens before that; Labor has negotiated with the Greens since, is negotiating with them now, and will continue (no doubt) to do so in the future.

    I repeat – not bothering to negotiate with the Greens in a situation where they had nothing to offer (and continued to have nothing to offer for the life of that particular Senate) wasn’t the hanging offence some posters make it out to be.

    My ONLY point here is that there was one particular micro second of time where, if the Greens had settled for what they could get, we might have a CPRS in place now (and also, possibly, no Tony Abbott).

  31. DN

    as for this —

    [In the event we succeed in preventing AGW, I can already hear people saying “nothing happened, did we really need to do all that, then?”]

    Oh dear.

    We can’t prevent AGW, no one is trying to prevent AGW, if we reduced all emissions to zero tomorrow the climate would continue to change for at least a decade.

    What we are trying to do is slow down the rate of change. Ideally, we might be able to stop change continuing altogether, given a couple of decades, but even then – the best case scenario – the world will be 2 degrees hotter than it is now.

  32. I suspect that the only eason Shorten was invited to Murdoch’s party was that they expected him to decline and they would make a song and dance about it.
    I imagine he will go along and be very polite to everyone and use the opportunity to make an assessment up close and personal as to how sane/healthy Rupert is at the moment – could be valuable intelligence.
    Smiling at your enemy can sometimes be a devastating tactic.

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