Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Abbott’s desperation to repeal the CT is based on an assumption that he’ll get a lift in the polls. If that does occur I don’t think it will last long as the punters minds return to more real world issues, like where the f@#k is my $550.

  2. “Three vertical, irregular, parallel lines about 3cm long and about 1cm apart. A most unusually big treble nick, not perfect lines …….. must’ve been a very very blunt razor and a powerful shaving stroke.”

    In days gone by there would have been heaps of his skin under finger nails correct? This was never presented as evidence to my knowledge. Lindy Chamberlain anyone….

  5. Keyman
    [In days gone by there would have been heaps of his skin under finger nails correct? This was never presented as evidence to my knowledge. Lindy Chamberlain anyone….]
    Her body was too far decomposed for them to tell.

  6. Victoria

    Surely unless the offender is caught red handed or makes admissions, all prosecutions are based on circumstantial evidence.

    He we have a serial philanderer, in serious financial trouble and who has made promises to his girlfriend.

    His wife goes missing, he has cuts on his face and rings her life insurance company the next day.

    That’s enough circumstances for me.

    As I said above, if a man can lie to his wife over his affairs, lying to a jury is a walk in the park.

  7. ajm@849

    An added bonus is it might spook Abbott. He probably doesn’t want Shorten seeing him kissing Rupes arse.

  9. Ajm

    You are right on the money

    My dear old mum always says there is no defence against niceness. If shorten snubbed Murdoch the Tories would be all over him.

    Rex doesn’t approve but I don’t think his opinion will bother Shorten.

  12. Just food for thought and nothing topical (as far as I know). I apologise in advance for the wall of text.

    Someone on Reddit’s /r/changemyview said, “I believe the government should be allowed to view my e-mails, tap my phone calls, and view my web history for national security concerns” because he has “nothing to hide”.

    This is a forum where people post questions like this and ask others to change their view.

    This is the best answer:

    I live in a country generally assumed to be a dictatorship. One of the Arab spring countries. I have lived through curfews and have seen the outcomes of the sort of surveillance now being revealed in the US. People here talking about curfews aren’t realizing what that actually FEELS like. It isn’t about having to go inside, and the practicality of that. It’s about creating the feeling that everyone, everything is watching. A few points:
    1) the purpose of this surveillance from the governments point of view is to control enemies of the state. Not terrorists. People who are coalescing around ideas that would destabilize the status quo. These could be religious ideas. These could be groups like anon who are too good with tech for the governments liking. It makes it very easy to know who these people are. It also makes it very simple to control these people.
    Lets say you are a college student and you get in with some people who want to stop farming practices that hurt animals. So you make a plan and go to protest these practices. You get there, and wow, the protest is huge. You never expected this, you were just goofing off. Well now everyone who was there is suspect. Even though you technically had the right to protest, you’re now considered a dangerous person.
    With this tech in place, the government doesn’t have to put you in jail. They can do something more sinister. They can just email you a sexy picture you took with a girlfriend. Or they can email you a note saying that they can prove your dad is cheating on his taxes. Or they can threaten to get your dad fired. All you have to do, the email says, is help them catch your friends in the group. You have to report back every week, or you dad might lose his job. So you do. You turn in your friends and even though they try to keep meetings off grid, you’re reporting on them to protect your dad.
    2) Let’s say number one goes on. The country is a weird place now. Really weird. Pretty soon, a movement springs up like occupy, except its bigger this time. People are really serious, and they are saying they want a government without this power. I guess people are realizing that it is a serious deal. You see on the news that tear gas was fired. Your friend calls you, frantic. They’re shooting people. Oh my god. you never signed up for this. You say, fuck it. My dad might lose his job but I won’t be responsible for anyone dying. That’s going too far. You refuse to report anymore. You just stop going to meetings. You stay at home, and try not to watch the news. Three days later, police come to your door and arrest you. They confiscate your computer and phones, and they beat you up a bit. No one can help you so they all just sit quietly. They know if they say anything they’re next. This happened in the country I live in. It is not a joke.
    3) Its hard to say how long you were in there. What you saw was horrible. Most of the time, you only heard screams. People begging to be killed. Noises you’ve never heard before. You, you were lucky. You got kicked every day when they threw your moldy food at you, but no one shocked you. No one used sexual violence on you, at least that you remember. There were some times they gave you pills, and you can’t say for sure what happened then. To be honest, sometimes the pills were the best part of your day, because at least then you didn’t feel anything. You have scars on you from the way you were treated. You learn in prison that torture is now common. But everyone who uploads videos or pictures of this torture is labeled a leaker. Its considered a threat to national security. Pretty soon, a cut you got on your leg is looking really bad. You think it’s infected. There were no doctors in prison, and it was so overcrowded, who knows what got in the cut. You go to the doctor, but he refuses to see you. He knows if he does the government can see the records that he treated you. Even you calling his office prompts a visit from the local police.
    You decide to go home and see your parents. Maybe they can help. This leg is getting really bad. You get to their house. They aren’t home. You can’t reach them no matter how hard you try. A neighbor pulls you aside, and he quickly tells you they were arrested three weeks ago and haven’t been seen since. You vaguely remember mentioning to them on the phone you were going to that protest. Even your little brother isn’t there.
    4) Is this even really happening? You look at the news. Sports scores. Celebrity news. It’s like nothing is wrong. What the hell is going on? A stranger smirks at you reading the paper. You lose it. You shout at him “fuck you dude what are you laughing at can’t you see I’ve got a fucking wound on my leg?”
    “Sorry,” he says. “I just didn’t know anyone read the news anymore.” There haven’t been any real journalists for months. They’re all in jail.
    Everyone walking around is scared. They can’t talk to anyone else because they don’t know who is reporting for the government. Hell, at one time YOU were reporting for the government. Maybe they just want their kid to get through school. Maybe they want to keep their job. Maybe they’re sick and want to be able to visit the doctor. It’s always a simple reason. Good people always do bad things for simple reasons.
    You want to protest. You want your family back. You need help for your leg. This is way beyond anything you ever wanted. It started because you just wanted to see fair treatment in farms. Now you’re basically considered a terrorist, and everyone around you might be reporting on you. You definitely can’t use a phone or email. You can’t get a job. You can’t even trust people face to face anymore. On every corner, there are people with guns. They are as scared as you are. They just don’t want to lose their jobs. They don’t want to be labeled as traitors.
    This all happened in the country where I live.
    You want to know why revolutions happen? Because little by little by little things get worse and worse. But this thing that is happening now is big. This is the key ingredient. This allows them to know everything they need to know to accomplish the above. The fact that they are doing it is proof that they are the sort of people who might use it in the way I described. In the country I live in, they also claimed it was for the safety of the people. Same in Soviet Russia. Same in East Germany. In fact, that is always the excuse that is used to surveil everyone. But it has never ONCE proven to be the reality.
    Maybe Obama won’t do it. Maybe the next guy won’t, or the one after him. Maybe this story isn’t about you. Maybe it happens 10 or 20 years from now, when a big war is happening, or after another big attack. Maybe it’s about your daughter or your son. We just don’t know yet. But what we do know is that right now, in this moment we have a choice. Are we okay with this, or not? Do we want this power to exist, or not?
    You know for me, the reason I’m upset is that I grew up in school saying the pledge of allegiance. I was taught that the United States meant “liberty and justice for all.” You get older, you learn that in this country we define that phrase based on the constitution. That’s what tells us what liberty is and what justice is. Well, the government just violated that ideal. So if they aren’t standing for liberty and justice anymore, what are they standing for? Safety?
    Ask yourself a question. In the story I told above, does anyone sound safe?
    I didn’t make anything up. These things happened to people I know. We used to think it couldn’t happen in America. But guess what? It’s starting to happen.
    I actually get really upset when people say “I don’t have anything to hide. Let them read everything.” People saying that have no idea what they are bringing down on their own heads. They are naive, and we need to listen to people in other countries who are clearly telling us that this is a horrible horrible sign and it is time to stand up and say no.

  13. sortius ‏@sortius 8m

    I notice @tonybrownITM ignores the need for bonding & frequency notching with G.Fast & XG.Fast in his latest AFR piece #NBN

  14. Victoria

    I agree, but hey, juries do funny things sometimes.

    Accused is Mr Nice Guy businessman, despite affairs.

    Wife has history of mental illness.

    Defence is she was upset because she found out about his philandering and went for a walk …

    Some people don’t think Rolf Harris is guilty either.

    And we are all going to be $550 better off …

  15. bemused
    [Well so would all the rusted ons, but having your cheer squad on side does not win elections.]
    Having them offside does lose elections, however.

    Shorten needs to be very careful that he does not start looking like a Tony Blair/Kevin Rudd wannabe when it comes to Murdoch. The man is a clear and present threat to Australian democracy.

    He is also too intelligent and evil to let the question of whether Shorten attends his party affect his mass propaganda machine’s direction come the next election.

  17. [Would love to see the downfall of Murdoch. Would give me great satisfaction]

    Me too, Vic. Bet we’re not alone.

    AJM Entirely agree with you. Shorten is charming and his wife is a delight so they will make a positive contrast against Abbott and Margie who,lately, seems quite distant when they are together.

  19. BH

    [AJM Entirely agree with you. Shorten is charming and his wife is a delight so they will make a positive contrast against Abbott and Margie who,lately, seems quite distant when they are together.]

    You noticed that too. 🙂

  20. “@danielhurstbne: Bishop told Coalition colleagues to go back & talk to constituents in parliamentary winter recess “Be your own market researcher” @murpharoo”

  21. You asked a fair question, Rex, and I think ajm @ 849 gave a fair answer.

    Still a dirty business though.

    [The man is a clear and present threat to Australian democracy.]

    Sure is. And anywhere else he plies his poison.

  23. Once power and gas bills start to come after repeal of the carbon price Shorten should continually brandish them at QT and compare them to those just after its introduction. Up and up and up . . .

  24. 866
    Dan Gulberry
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 1:01 pm | PERMALINK
    I reckon Bill Shorten should take Clive Palmer as his “date” to Rupert’s shindig.

    That would be hilarious!

  25. [I repeat – not bothering to negotiate with the Greens in a situation where they had nothing to offer (and continued to have nothing to offer for the life of that particular Senate) wasn’t the hanging offence some posters make it out to be.]

    No, it was a rational decision. But having made that decision Rudd/ALP have to accept the consequences of it.

    You argued earlier that the Greens’ final vote insufficiently considered the unpredictability of the future. Insofar as that criticism is valid it applies equally to this decision of Rudd.

  26. mh

    Your post just made me conjure up mental pictures of Clive in a cocktail dress from which I may never recover. Expect a call from my lawyer regarding inflicting mental pain and suffering. 😮 😉 😆

  30. Interesting

    [The defence seized upon his testimony, suggesting Mrs Baden-Clay took her own life in the early hours of April 20, 2012, while under the adverse effects of Zoloft.
    It also suggested Mrs Baden-Clay may have died as a result of misadventure or accident, brought about by medication.
    However, the jury never heard that Dr Robertson was named as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the 2000 murder of Gregory de Villers in San Diego, California.
    Mr de Villers’ wife Kristin Rossum was convicted in 2002 of murdering her husband and attempting to make his death look like a suicide.
    Dr Robertson was embroiled in an affair with Ms Rossum. He was the head of the toxicology laboratory at the San Diego County Medical Examiner’s Office, where she worked as a junior toxicologist.]

    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/badenclay-witness-once-coconspirator-in-us-killing-20140715-zt7xu.html#ixzz37VFtx8hy

  39. zoom
    I keep reading back over our discussion and I keep coming to the conclusion that you’re contradicting yourself. As you will no doubt disagree with me that this is the case – which is fair enough – and I don’t think we are really in substantial disagreement, apparent contradictions notwithstanding, there is nowhere else for this discussion to go.

  40. victoria @ 867

    [AJM Entirely agree with you. Shorten is charming and his wife is a delight so they will make a positive contrast against Abbott and Margie who,lately, seems quite distant when they are together.

    You noticed that too. :)]

    Probably because the gyprock walls have taken quite a pounding lately at Tony and Margs joint ! :devil:

  42. [I have just flicked through all the finalists for this year’s Archibald prize. There are a lot of rather ordinary offerings IMHO.]

    Must have run them past Gerard ‘Bland’ Henderson for pre-approval first.

  43. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m

    Danby and Byrne both referenced the IPA’s opposition in speeches endorsing data retention. I expect the pro-data retention Liberals won’t.

    You mean there is more than one faction in the liberals?

  44. victoria@878

    Interesting

    The defence seized upon his testimony, suggesting Mrs Baden-Clay took her own life in the early hours of April 20, 2012, while under the adverse effects of Zoloft.
    It also suggested Mrs Baden-Clay may have died as a result of misadventure or accident, brought about by medication.
    However, the jury never heard that Dr Robertson was named as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in the 2000 murder of Gregory de Villers in San Diego, California.
    Mr de Villers’ wife Kristin Rossum was convicted in 2002 of murdering her husband and attempting to make his death look like a suicide.
    Dr Robertson was embroiled in an affair with Ms Rossum. He was the head of the toxicology laboratory at the San Diego County Medical Examiner’s Office, where she worked as a junior toxicologist.


    Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/badenclay-witness-once-coconspirator-in-us-killing-20140715-zt7xu.html#ixzz37VFtx8hy

    Interesting she was taking Zoloft.
    I know from first hand observation that it can have a very bad effect on some people and there have been a number of cases of murders or suicides involving it.

  45. zoidlord@891

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 1m

    Danby and Byrne both referenced the IPA’s opposition in speeches endorsing data retention. I expect the pro-data retention Liberals won’t.

    You mean there is more than one faction in the liberals?

    Yes, as I have previously said, ‘extreme right’ and ‘fascist’.

  47. @bemused/893

    I wouldn’t call that two separate factions, more like the same group with different extremists views.

  48. Reading what people have been saying about a dd or a leader change, I have to say surely the libs wouldn’t be that hypocritical to dump Abbott. Perhaps if Abbott does get his inevitable post repeal bounce in the polls, he might call an election? Does he already have a trigger?

  49. A little surprised at the guilty verdict, but having not sat through the trial cannot comment further if it was on the balance beyond all reasonable doubt.

  50. Abbott has not much to gain from a DD and would be reluctant to give a mug an even break. The best he could hope for is a loss of HOR and Senate members, and the high possibility of a loss. You wouldn’t do a DD unless you were pretty confident of the result.

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