Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Little change in the latest Essential Research, with other polls reporting this week likewise bouncing around within the margin of error.

The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:

• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.

• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.

• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.

• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.

A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:

• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).

• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.

• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

886 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  2. [German politicians are considering a return to using manual typewriters for sensitive documents in the wake of the US surveillance scandal.

    The head of the Bundestag’s parliamentary inquiry into NSA activity in Germany said in an interview with the Morgenmagazin TV programme that he and his colleagues were seriously thinking of ditching email completely.

    Asked “Are you considering typewriters” by the interviewer on Monday night, the Christian Democrat politican Patrick Sensburg said: “As a matter of fact, we have – and not electronic models either”. “Really?” the surprised interviewer checked. “Yes, no joke,” Sensburg responded.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/15/germany-typewriters-espionage-nsa-spying-surveillance

  9. Martin

    [A function with an asymptotic upper bound may be everywhere finite but everywhere increasing.]

    The amount per year would be finite but the total amount of the product would need to be infinite as the time is infinite.

  13. If Dastayari has given notice that he’s going to move the FOFA regs disallowance motion again, surely he’s got the PUPs back onside?

  17. @715

    [With almost 3 million refugees outside Syria and more than a million internally displaced in Iraq, Mr Turk said the agency found itself “a bit startled” by the debate in Australia.]

    And ain’t that the nub of it.

  18. [A function with an asymptotic upper bound may be everywhere finite but everywhere increasing.

    The amount per year would be finite but the total amount of the product would need to be infinite as the time is infinite.]

    Indeed. Moreover a positive function can be always decreasing, but the area under the curve still be infinite, e.g. y = 1/x.

    But what is really at play is the decreasing rate of supply versus increasing (or static) demand causing prices to rise, shall we say, non-linearly. If your interested, look up the Golombek cost function. At the limit, it’s quite similar to tanh.

  19. Off topic for those interested in Rugby League, I was just watching the NRL360 program on Fox.

    What is it with these journalists?

    They all stick together. Darius Boyd has been BURNED by the media in the past. The story has been going on for over a week.

    Darius Boyd has every right to treat the media any way he sees fit.

    Get over it!

  20. What I really came to say was: Jeebus, Chris Richardson is a shill. What’s this nonsense?

    [Essentially, the Senate is not just blocking the budget for the next handful of years, but blocking the budget for the next decade]

    How on earth does the current Senate block budgets 10 years in the future, and why does he ignore the Senates role as house of review?

    Answer: He’s a paid-up shill.

  21. [Now look what they done:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/university-funding-cuts-cause-severe-indigestion-for-government-20140713-zt63m.html ]

    That article was from the other day, but the point made at the time still stands: cuts to university funding and placing a higher cost burden upon students affects almost everyone in our community.

    Whether you’re a student, family of studnets, a DINK looking at post grad study, parents of teenage children or parents of current students, you’re either directly or indirectly affected.

  22. LU

    Chris Richardson is the bloke who predicted a near certainty recession and 8% unemployment for Australia during the heights of the GFC.

    Either he was totally and incompetently WRONG or he failed to acknowledge any due credit to the Rudd/Labor government for saving jobs and avoiding a recession.

    Which one was it Richardson?

  24. Detailed employment data should be interesting tomorrow.

    See how well the Coalition Party have done after what 10 months in the job?

  26. confessions@721

    The poll on that article is pretty decisive. Getting rid of Pyne at the next election would be a bonus.

  29. Centre:

    I still miss the WEather Channel and Apac. There’s no equivalent for either on FTA. But apart from that I don’t miss Foxtel at all.

  31. Wasn’t the biggest problem with the mining tax (mark II) that is was weak to attack from pretty much every single direction you could think of.

  34. [The dead.

    Palestinians 200 (approx) – Israelis 1

    Am I missing something here?]

    Clearly you and the Palestinians are missing a whole lot, the Israelis have much better aim. There are also some really gullible people who believe Israeli spin. I don’t know like they are confused and think it is a David and Goliath battle where Israel is David …

    On the other hand if I was one of the poor sods in Gaze effectively being denied all human rights by a disgusting massive murdering machine I would be very very very unhappy with the military arm of Hamas. But in all fairness I wouldn’t have put up with the disgusting oppression of Israel I’d have been a freedom fighter so I’d have probably been dead 20 years ago.

  38. Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Alex Ellinghausen ‏@ellinghausen 34m

    Liberal Senator James McGrath calls for Triple J to be sold off immediately in his First Speech to the Senate

  40. Mikehilliard 732 re Gaza
    _______________
    No you got that right
    ________________
    The whole situation is for the Israelis to use maximum force on all occasions…using the latest US war materiel…to so flatten and shock ALL Gaza that the whole of Palestine will see the fury of the Israelis….Uri Avernery a respected Jewish /Israeli writer who opposes the “war party” around Natanyahu…calls this “Hebrew-Naziism,”,,he said it not me …but it is an irony when you think of the context
    In the end the hardliners in Israel want to drive ALL Arabs from Palestine…to anywhere…or perhaps they might need gas chanbers to finish the task ….
    but it sums it up
    and this from a nation built by many holocaust survivors
    If he’s still in Argentina,Adolf Hitler must have a wry(and much needed ) laugh at what the jewish homeland has become

  41. [mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, July 16, 2014 at 9:07 pm | Permalink

    The dead.

    Palestinians 200 (approx) – Israelis 1

    Am I missing something here?]

    (1) two dead Israeli teenagers
    (2) numbers of physically and psychologically wounded palestinians
    (3) number of psychologically wounded Israelis
    (4) numbers of palestinians arrested and, most likely physically and psychologically mistreated, probably heading towards 1,000 now
    (5) numbers driven out their homes – not counted
    (6) numbers of rockets fired by Hamas into Israel – many hundreds by now.

    I don’t want to go into the ethical issues here but do have a stray question:

    If the Palestinians were the dominant military power and they were killing and arresting hundreds of Israelis what would we be saying about it?

    My question is not about race or ethnicity or about ethics. It is about whether our attitudes are influenced or determined by the assymetrical power.

  42. Diogenes

    They are missing at about 10 percent they aim at. Not that the home made ones they largely use would be particularly hard to hit.

  44. Apparently Penny Wong was given a ‘come over hear’ finger by…Clive Palmer during Senate QT today.

    I’d give the Fat One anything he wants if he insists that the ETS must be kept with the repeal of the carbon tax

  45. deblonay

    “In the end the hardliners in Israel want to drive ALL Arabs from Palestine…to anywhere…or perhaps they might need gas chanbers to finish the task ….”

    Indeed. Much as the hardliners on the Palestinian side constantly fantasize about a new Holocaust and driving the Jews into the sea.

  46. Deblonay

    [The whole situation is for the Israelis to use maximum force on all occasions…]

    Given any opportunity you reliably, wilfully and consistently get it wrong.

    For example, ff Israel did use its ‘maximum (conventional) force’ not a building would be left standing in Gaza, not a single element of urban infrastructure would be functioning and very few people would be left alive. This is not what is happening.

    Your posts are characterised by ‘whatever it takes’ in terms of lies and misrepresentations.

    If you had instead posted that Israel systematically uses graduated responses, systematically targets buildings associated with HAMAS leadership and with the storage, manufacture and launching of rockets; that Israel systematically provides short (and often too short) warnings to building occupants to leave because the building is about to be bombed, and that Israel uses collective punishment by way of varying but (IMHO, often draconian) restrictions of the flow of humans, materials and resources into and out of Gaza Strip, then there is a real discussion to be had.

    But you just can’t help bullshitting, can you?

  48. Deblonay

    [If he’s still in Argentina,Adolf Hitler must have a wry(and much needed ) laugh at what the jewish homeland has become]

    I doubt whether he would be laughing at anything, much. Were he still alive, Hitler would be around 124 years old.

  49. Re rift between Germany and the USA over CIA spying in Germany
    _____________________________
    Talking of the use by Germans of typewriters to foil the CIA ,….now after the arrest of two major US/German CIA agents in Berlin he believes Markel is close the re-examining the US-German alliance…oddly she is seeking closer relations with Russia as a way of rebuking the USA

    In Berlin the new US Ambassador speaks not a word of German.which Merkal’s govt finds odd…but the Russian ambassador is so fluent he speaks German without a trace of any russioan accent …rather typical of US arrogance and disdain

    see his article below

    http://www.iwallerstein.com/germany-united-states-unprecedented-breach/

    ‘

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