The Seven Network reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted yesterday has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 a month ago. More details to follow (although it may take a while).
UPDATE (26/10): Here at last are the full results from the poll, which turns out to have a sample of 3594. On the primary vote, Labor is on 37.5%, the Coalition 40.1%, the Greens 11.5%, and Palmer United 5.1% (a fair bit better than they’ve been doing from other pollsters lately).
Of, and briefly, my best wishes on your mysterious new enterprise.
Building something new is a scary but exciting thing.
For many years now, Albury-Wodonga has had combined health sources. To get an MRI, for example, I have to travel an hour to Albury.
This is a result of a series of decisions made in consultation with the community over many years.
Under the new Primary Health networks, however, this arrangement falls apart, because Albury and Wodonga are in different states.
Cathy McGowan asked a question in Parliament about this, and Dutton’s response was that the government would be encouraging organisations to tender to run more than one network, and the obvious solution would be for the same tenderer to submit an application for both Albury and Wodonga.
However —
[Wodonga would be in a network extending from Corryong to Mildura, while Albury would be part of an area covering the whole of western NSW up to the Queensland border.]
On a side note, either of those configurations is absolutely batsh*t crazy. I assume these networks are going to be of similar size across the nation. If so, they’ll be unworkable. (Victoria, under Napthine, ‘consolidated’ its regions from around eight to four, with the result that my isolated rural area is in the same grouping as some of the leafier Melbourne suburbs. No community of interest there whatsoever).
Back to the main point, however – Dutton’s cheerful suggestion is obviously impractical.
This is what happens when you have no ideas of your own. You can’t critique what’s presented to you, because you have no understanding of the issues, because you haven’t done the thinking (in fairness, there’s a sound reason for that in Dutton’s case) and consultation required.
[Ms McGowan urged people to write letters of support for an Albury-Wodonga model to her office or that of Farrer MP Sussan Ley.
“This is a really important battle for us to win because it’s actually asking the government to pay attention to our unique circumstances,” she said.]
And if they haven’t paid attention to our unique circumstances (really, every circumstance is unique!) then they won’t have paid attention to anyone else’s, either.
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2650130/medicare-fight-to-canberra/?cs=11
Just as a side note, one of our local papers has been targetting our candidate’s private life.
It’s sad to admit that the National MP is taking a far more reasonable and responsible approach on this than the paper is. (His campaign manager has expressed bewilderment to me about the paper’s actions, too).
I made an attempt yesterday to point out to the paper that they were crossing some boundaries I’ve never seen the media cross before – I ended by hanging up on the person I was talking to (he was yelling down the phone).
z
Good on you.
The last thing that the very, very poor and desperate do is destroy their own environment.
Reporters in dead tree newspapers, same, same.
Briefly
The WHO reports seems to me to be a sad indictment of how NOT to manage an epidemic. Those table show that in the 32 weeks aince the epidemic got into full swing 12% of the cases have emerged this week. This is to be expected when an epidemic is in its exponential spreading phase and it is a very clear indication that it is not under control. The spread to the border with Ivory Coast makes it next to impossible it will not spread to that country soon while the sad news from Mali indicates that that horse has bolted. From the little I have read/heard the sick child in Mali travelled on a bus while in the highly infective stage (bleeding nose). Containing that outbreak is going to be very difficult.
BK
Americans will shoot to death around 30,000 Americans this year.
The NRA terror campaign is alive and well.
Hartcher stirring the Leadershit pot.
It is interesting that everyone who reckons they know anything reckon that Abbott is safe but that there is a lot of Heir Apparent Leadershit.
Hartcher also reckons that Abbott will do a full reshuffle out in around 12 months to set up for the next election.
One thing we can say with a considerable degree of certainty is that Smirk/Sneer Mk11 will go for Abbott’s ghoolies when he reckons the timing is good, whereas Smirk/Sneer Mk11 lacked the cojones to challenge Howard.
Smirk/Sneer Mk11 has, incidentally, offended Keenan as well as Brandis, Bishop and Johnstone.
Smirk/Sneer Mk11 might have the ambition but not the rat cunning required to knock No 1 off his perch.
Zoom
Local newspapers … often run by nutters.
We had two – the ‘Advertiser’ and the ‘Irrigator’.
Referred to colloquially as the ‘Aggravator’ and ‘Irritator’.
[In a speech that will spark debate about how Australia’s systems of government work with each other, Mr Abbott will argue that states including NSW, Victoria and West Australia that receive a lower share of the GST from the Commonwealth, need to receive a fair go.
But, Mr Abbott will argue, any change in arrangements should not leave the smaller states such as Tasmania and South Australia worse off.]
Oh, right. So we’re going to take the same pie and give bigger slices of it to some states, whilst being able to give other states at least what they have now.
Now, if he can pull that off, he deserves not only plaudits from economists, but a Nobel Prize in Mathematics, for fundamentally changing the way maths operates.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/reform-the-federation-to-give-all-states-a-fair-go-pm-20141024-11bbcu.html#ixzz3H6HAlrc9
[Mr Abbott says that reforming the Federation is not something that one person, one party or one Parliament can achieve. The challenge for Australia, in debating Federation, is to create a more rational system of government.
“After two decades of ‘cooperative federalism’ and any number of agreements at Council of Australian Government meetings, we still have tradies who cannot operate across state borders”.
]
Well, it would be great to lead by example, wouldn’t it — look back to what I’ve said about the way present health services, based on communities of interest, are being replaced by this government by ones based on lines on a map.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/reform-the-federation-to-give-all-states-a-fair-go-pm-20141024-11bbcu.html#ixzz3H6I7xIRc
He can do it by talking fairness in relative terms, “no worse off” in absolute terms and increasing the GST.
Oh dear. The Coalition doesn’t get it, do they?
[To fix the problem, make Turnbull the treasurer, was the idea.
The ministers kicked it around. On the plus side, Turnbull would reset the entire political debate and grab the nation’s attention. He would give the government an opportunity to recast its controversial budget.
He would bring competence and authority to the Treasury portfolio. He has the ability to articulate a message clearly and forcefully. The change could be justified by the changing global economic circumstance – there is a looming slowdown as China falters and Europe relapses. Turnbull has been consistently polling as the most popular federal politician on either side of the aisle.
“It’d be a game changer,” one minister summarised. No one disagreed with the soundness of the idea…]
The problem isn’t the sales job. The problem is the Budget. No amount of leather jackets and patrician charm is going to make it more attractive to the voters.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-star-rises-as-tony-abbott-revels-in-ministers-jockeying-20141024-11bd8z.html#ixzz3H6KC9aJ3
[He would bring competence and authority to the Treasury portfolio.]
AFter the mess Hockey’s made of things, anyone would bring competence and authority to the Treasury portfolio!
Political savant and genius commentator Peter Hartcher opines profoundly, about the Abbott Budget:
You do have to laugh, don’t you?
He then goes on to discuss, po-faced one of the main reasons why Tony Abbott would not promote Turnbull to the office of Treasurer.
Abbott’s jealous.
Nice to know that Abbott has the Coalition and the National Interest at heart (they’re the same thing aren’t they?), and that Hartcher sees this as a perfectly reasonable position to take.
Hartcher today is back to his old tricks: writing-up restaurant gossip about leadershit. A group of Ministers, in their cups, drinking Scotch, reckon Joe Hockey should go, in favour of Turnbull.
The Abbott government is already doing brilliantly on Foreign Affairs and international diplomacy (in Hartcher’s myopic eyes at least), now all they need is Turnbull in as Treasurer to fix up the economy and they’ll surge ahead in the polls. The Nation will breathe a sigh of relief. Consumer confidence will soar.
Deep, deep, deep analysis from the International & Political Editor of the august Sydney Morning Herald.
What next? Maybe Peter will whip around to the back alley and go through the garbage skip? Then he can tell us what the Liberal Power Broker spied at a Chinese restaurant was doodling on his paper napkin. Maybe he can even suss what the fortune cookie said?
Thank God we have the likes of Pinstripe Pete to guide our thinking.
The man has a desperate need to be relevant. To show that he’s connected and gets the good goss.
Pity for Pete, he supported Rudd. That means he’s shut out. All the advice he’s offered Abbot on how to deal with everything from travel rorts to Oriental potentates has been ignored. Cassidy doesn’t even invite him onto the show anymore (has he ever been on it?).
And look what his Rudd Love did for him and the country. Abso-bloody-lutely nothing. Rudd’s “surge in the polls” lasted all of a fortnight, and Pete’s relegated to passing on Chinese whispers.
Pity nobody – either in politics, or on the receiving end of it – takes any notice of him.
Hold the front page!
And more evidence of delusion —
[“We are seen to be strong on national security now, but suddenly, after 70 years with economic management as a strength, we’re not seen as being strong on it,” says a senior figure in the government.
“We are not ahead in the polls. Why? Economic management is pulling us back. Rarely do you win elections on national security. People expect us to be solid on it. We don’t get special credit. And Bill Shorten has cleverly minimised the differences on the national security agenda,” closely supporting the government’s deployment to Iraq and its counter-terrorism bills.
“So where are the big differences between us and Labor? It’s economic management and the budget.”]
Just because you’re ‘seen’ to be strong on economic management doesn’t mean you are – yet this Minister obviously thinks perception and performance are the same thing.
There’s no questioning here about whether or not the perception of the Coalition’s economic management skills is being matched by their actual performance.
And, of course, this ‘analysis’ fails to take into account that the polls were sliding before the Budget was introduced.
It’s this fundamental ability to understand why they’re tanking that’s the problem for the government. It appears, from the comments in this article, that the Coalition think they’re doing a terrific job, and genuinely can’t understand why the polls don’t recognise this.
Which is why changing leaders won’t help them, any more than changing Treasurers would.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbulls-star-rises-as-tony-abbott-revels-in-ministers-jockeying-20141024-11bd8z.html#ixzz3H6L2bCrn
[101
Fran Barlow
Of, and briefly, my best wishes on your mysterious new enterprise.
Building something new is a scary but exciting thing.]
Thank you, Fran. I’ll be sure to let the bludgers know if I can get put these ideas into motion.
🙂
Good Morning
[“When I see people hiding behind the bible to insult and demonise people based on their sexuality… I cannot stay silent. I do not agree.”]
Just this from Mr Shorten says it all. Hopefully it will not fall on deaf ears.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 56m 56 minutes ago
Jim “I ran the war in Iraq” Molan wants Liberal preselection. That’s all they need.]
Being reported in the AUstralian apparently.
Zoomster Abbott left himself the option of taking Qld’s slice of the pie to share around. Maybe even he can’t stand Newman.
105
daretotread
I agree, dtt. But isn’t it good to read something that has not been washed, rinsed, sanitized, spun, dried and pressed and then put in a designer box? WHO are their own critics too. One of the things I particularly like is they do not in any way seek to blame those affected by EVD for the epidemic.
guytaur:
Yes, it’s about time our politicians stopped pandering to these people.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-to-confront-christian-lobby-over-samesex-marriage-20141024-11bbdz.html
Dtt 105
True. MSF have delivered the primary response to ebola, in the absence of WHO. Its African division is hopelessly politicised. Nice website though.
Have a good day all.
Napthine on 24 just promised if you go to the newsagent he is at you will get sold a winning Tattslott ticket.
😆
[113
confessions
He would bring competence and authority to the Treasury portfolio.
AFter the mess Hockey’s made of things, anyone would bring competence and authority to the Treasury portfolio!]
The real author of the budget problems is Abbott. He was the force behind the attempted but seriously misconceived cutting. Abbott’s ideological approach to carbon pricing and mineral taxation have cost the budget. Were it ever to pass, his PPL would also hit the budget.
If business and household confidence is down, it is most likely to be due to their finances rather than to politicians. After all, in general most people pay almost no attention to politicians, but they constantly watch their incomes and spending. These have been under pressure for a long time from several forces. Abbott’s problem is he doesn’t know how to respond. He really fails to get either the economy or the budget.
Changing faces at the Treasury is not, by itself, going to change the fundamental forces that are shaping the budget and people’s financial fortunes. To achieve this, the LNP would not merely have to change its leader, it would have to dispense with its ideology too.
Go, Bill! — and people wondered why he had accepted the invitation….
[..no faith, no religion, no set of beliefs should ever be used as an instrument of division or exclusion.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-to-confront-christian-lobby-over-samesex-marriage-20141024-11bbdz.html#ixzz3H6T2gRps
Interestingly, I’ve read that the commandment about ‘not taking God’s name in vain’ isn’t about swearing at all, as it’s commonly interpreted – what it means is that you shouldn’t use God to justify your own actions.
Oh, well done Tony Abbott!
By flagging up a possible terror attack on the National War Memorial, you have created at least two scenarios.
1. Attendances, particularly by children, will fall.
2. Some nut job might decide to ……
Brendan Nelson (remember him) will be pleased!
121
confessions
Bill nails it here. Hats Off, I reckon.
Morning
Thanks BK. Briefly and others for posting latest musings. Much appreciated.
briefly:
Yes, the budget is a stinker, but Hockey hasn’t exactly been consistent all the times he’s talked about it. And then there’s the series of PR stuff ups with cigars and his colleagues getting in the news for silly things.
Congratulations Fran. I like hearing these, it is a happy event that counters some of the sad things that happen in this world.
109
zoomster
The Howard/Costello re-write of the Federal compact will have to be undone.
zoomster:
I always thought ‘taking the lord’s name in vain’ was about invoking god when trying to justify unjustifiable doings.
129
confessions
Yup, Hockey is a buffoon, like most of the cabinet.
Tweet from Paul Bongiorno and reply from Mike Carlton
[I am gob smacked at the PM nominating the Last Post at the War Memorial as a terror target. None of his predecessors would be so blatant.]
[@PaulBongiorno Not the slightest surprised myself, Paul. Abbott has elevated cheap, wrap-yerself-in-khaki opportunism to an art form.]
And a response from another person
[@PaulBongiorno Shocking. Surely the daily last post will have to be cancelled now. Sounds like a dare to me]
victoria
Such a contrast Abbott doing fear and division. Shorten doing unity and hope.
guytaur
Labor has supported the govt on national security etc. but will not engage in fear mongering. Abbott continues to do so to distract the public from his govts crappy agenda.
Obviously something is not working, as reflected in the current polls
victoria
All the fear mongering is not going to help Abbott. Its just destructive of our society and shows Abbott’s real values when it comes to society.
Abbott is willing it seems to have race riots in the streets as long as it gets him a poll boost. It won’t even work as no economic management means no reelection. (pubic view). Labor always has had health and education to overcome perceptions of bad economic management.
[A fund has been launched to support a foundation in memory of Mo, Evie and Otis Maslin – the Perth siblings who were among those killed in the MH17 tragedy.
Readers of The Weekend West _and the wider Australian community have been invited to contribute to the fund.
It has been created in the hope of forging a substantial and lasting foundation to honour the memory of Mo, 12, Evie, 10, and Otis, 8, and the bravery of their parents Anthony (Maz) Maslin and Marite (Rin) Norris.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25344883/maslins-set-up-dyslexia-fund/
European Union leaves Abbott’s fossil-fuel funded gov in the dark ages with agreed 40% cut in emissions by 2030 http://goo.gl/MF41zz
This is one part of what Whitlam’s detractors choose to ignore, or are just too ignorant to know or understand, when assessing his legacy.
(The other part being that the rest of the world was also in economic turmoil at that time, which Gittens details very well in his article).
[“Many of Whitlam’s new spending programs should have come under his predecessors and would have happened eventually. Some can be defended as adding to the economy’s human capital and productive infrastructure, others were no more than a recognition that our private affluence needn’t be accompanied by public squalor”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/reformer-gough-whitlam-oversaw-economic-chaos-but-it-was-not-all-of-labors-making
“@ABCNews24: Live now: Opposition leader @billshortenmp is addressing the national Christian lobby http://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW”
Meanwhile in twitter news, Her Maj gets in on the action.
[The 88-year-old’s Twitter debut came during a visit to London’s Science Museum as she opened a new gallery dedicated to the history of communication and information.
The royal tweet read: “It is a pleasure to open the Information Age exhibition today at the @ScienceMuseum and I hope people will enjoy visiting. Elizabeth R.”]
[140
AussieAchmed
European Union leaves Abbott’s fossil-fuel funded gov in the dark ages with agreed 40% cut in emissions by 2030 http://goo.gl/MF41zz ]
Climate change is going to really hurt the LNP at the next election.
Shorten giving an excellent address to the ACL
At the ACL Shorten is demostrating a big difference to Abbott.
BK
Was an excellent well rounded address
vic
I wonder how the ACL took it?
BK
If the ACL are truly following the Christian tenents, they would embrace it wholeheartedly. Of course, if they are judgmental and lacking compassion and care, they will not
vic
Yes – you are right.