Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research produces yet more disastrous personal ratings for Tony Abbott, and turns the knife with a finding that suggests salvation for the Coalition is only as far away as Julie Bishop.

The latest result from Essential Research has both major parties a point down on the primary vote, in both cases from 40% to 39%. This makes room for increases of one point for the Greens and two points to others, both now at 10%, while Palmer United is now at 2%, which I believe to be a new low. Also featured are Essential Research’s regular monthly personal ratings, which offer yet another belting for Tony Abbott, who is down seven points on approval to 32% and up five on disapproval to 55%. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and up one on disapproval to 39%, and has opened up a 36-31 lead on preferred prime minister after trailing 36-34 last time.

There’s also results on how various politicians have performed over the past year, which are predictable in direction but very interesting in degree. Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and, more excusably, Christine Milne have equally poor net ratings of minus 22%, minus 24% and minus 23% respectively (Milne having an undecided rating quite a bit higher than the other two). The big eye-openers are Clive Palmer at minus 50% and Julie Bishop at plus 28%. Rather less interestingly, Bill Shorten is at minus 5%.

The poll also finds the issues respondents most want addressed over the coming year are improving the health system and reducing unemployment, with less concern for public transport investment, environmental protection, investment in roads and, in last place, free trade agreements. Respondents also deem it to have been a bad year for pretty much everything, most especially “Australian politics in general” at minus 53% (which is still an improvement on minus 62% last year&#148), the only exceptions being large companies and corporations (plus 14%) and “you and your family overall” (plus 3%).

A semi-regular question on same-sex marriage records weaker support than the particularly strong showing in June, at 55% (down five) with 32% opposed (up four).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

682 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  5. rua 47 – hope you have a quick recovery.

    wrt bulk billing I think one of the things about some of those big multi-practices is that it a lot simpler to never have to bill patients at all, just doing it all through medicare. And “gearing up” to start charging naything would be a painful experience probably.

    51 – Seeney is now planning to prove King Canute wrong and declare that the tide can’t come in either. (though I think I am doing a disservice to Canute who probably was just trying to show that he couldn’t influence the tide.

  11. rua

    I have had an auto immune disease since my early twenties.

    I have Graves Disease which effects the thyroid.

    All gone now due to a couple of surgeries and I take a thyroid replacement tablet every day.

    This heat is just intolerable for me.

    You take care and look after yourself.

  12. jimmy Doyle

    Shorten was just interviewed on the Project. He communicated a clear concise and calm message about Abbott’s latest brain fart on tne GP co payment.

  13. [ It’s like… how could Abbott make a bigger hash of this? ]

    Which is what a lot of the Libs must be asking themselves in between pounding their heads on the desk.

    The level of political and policy incompetence this lot are literally shoving out there in peoples faces as hard as they can is something i find quite bewildering.

    Its actually getting to the point for me where instead of asking “will they dump Abbott and when??”, ( and i know there are many reasons they would keep him on ) i’m now asking, “how can they afford NOT to dump Abbott and soon??”

    The damage he’s doing must be spreading to the rest of the Libs and any potential replacements the longer they leave it, since his whole cabinet will be expected to back up his leadership by brain-fart approach as long as he’s there.

  18. [ The point is… ERC signed off on this today. So it’s not just an Abbott brain-fart. ]

    ARGHHHH!! running away now. getting too scary. 🙁

    Govt of the people by nasty, incompetent, self indulgent spivs who think we are ALL idiots, not just the morons who voted for them. 🙁

  19. What I would like to know is what promises and to whom Tony has made over $20 billion research fund. Apparently it is still there . He seems damn determined to keep this “promise”.

  24. Just saw this in comments on the Guardian article

    If this tax gets introduced, every doctor that charges the $5 should invoice it individually, as the $5 Abbott GP tax. – ValDoxan

    Like various Liberal entities loved to do on “carbon tax”

  27. The best US President that money can buy?

    [A select group of rich Republican donors has a plan. The New York Times reported Monday that “dozens” of the party’s leading fundraisers and donors are quietly discussing a proposal to back one candidate in an effort to marshal their support behind a sole establishment candidate in an effort to avoid pitting billionaire backers against one another in a costly primary battle.]

    (Bloomberg)

  36. Martin B@85

    Now, now. Taking a seat off the Lobs. Isn’t that what you ate always saying the Greens shouldvtry to do?

    It was a 3 way contest and one of Labor’s enemies won.

    Now we will have to put up with more LOON hubris. 🙁

  39. [Essential Research produces yet more disastrous personal ratings for Tony Abbott, and turns the knife with a finding that suggests salvation for the Coalition is only as far away as Julie Bishop.]

    This is an especially ironic, yet very pleasing poll outcome. 🙂

  41. Cud Chewer,

    It’s not certain, as twice the amount of people who voted BTL last time did this time, so preferences aren’t certain. Re-checking is still happening in I think Northern Metro, Eastern Victoria, South East Metro, Southern Metro, Western Metro and Western Victoria so preferences won’t be dealt with till after that.

  42. [Tim Watts MP
    I’m sure there’s someone in Tricky Tony’s office who thought today was a master stroke #mean #tricky #outoftouch]

  45. I see that Medibank Private shares that have been hovering around their release price of $2.15, shot up to $2.22 at the end of the day after Abbott’s announcement.

    Can someone who understands the sharemarket explain this?

  46. [Australia’s former top mandarin has warned that political leaders should stop trying to manage their ministerial departments and get out and build support for reform within the community.

    Terry Moran, who was the head of Prime Minister and Cabinet under the Rudd and Gillard governments, has argued that Australia needs “better political leadership” in a speech in Sydney on Tuesday night.

    Mr Moran has called out the “growing trend” on both sides of politics “to portray themselves as effective managers”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/political-leaders-should-work-on-ideas-not-management-terry-moran-20141209-123lnz.html

  47. [The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike · 2h 2 hours ago
    Take an unpopular policy. Twist it around so people think it’s still happening but now you look tricky. That’ll fix it.]

  49. Rocket Rocket@95

    I see that Medibank Private shares that have been hovering around their release price of $2.15, shot up to $2.22 at the end of the day after Abbott’s announcement.

    Can someone who understands the sharemarket explain this?

    At a guess, people are betting that private health insurance will benefit from the squeeze on Medicare.

  50. The Brick nails it.

    [Glenn Lazarus @SenatorLazarus
    Follow
    Abbott Government dumps GP Co-payment for a GP Woe-payment. What a NASTY government!]

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