BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor

Queensland leads the way in a catastrophic dive for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.

Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor”

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  1. Does anyone know if all LNP MPs sit in the Liberal partyroom, or do they split between the Libs and Nats according to what they were pre the formal partnership?

    I can’t remember if we resolved this the other day.

  2. mexican:

    If you were a woman Liberal MP you’d have to be in favour of a leadership change, simply to have a shot at breaking through the glass ceiling in the Liberal party.

  3. confessions@1551

    Does anyone know if all LNP MPs sit in the Liberal partyroom, or do they split between the Libs and Nats according to what they were pre the formal partnership?

    I can’t remember if we resolved this the other day.

    A young fogey with altzheimers? 😀

  4. Lenore Taylor –

    [ “The plan at the National Press Club on Monday, what we’re doing for childcare on Tuesday, improving national security on Wednesday, new laws to protect our people and keep them safe on Thursday and today a tax cut for small business.”

    Every single one of those things is either not yet a policy, is an existing policy or is contradictory nonsense.

    The “plan” at the national press club was to stick to the old talking points about the “debt and deficit disaster”, but then claim that the “hard work” had already been done by last year’s budget (which forecast bigger deficits than treasury revealed during the election campaign and included savings policies that have not passed, and almost certainly will not pass, the Senate).

    This disconnect becomes even starker when you factor in slower growth and lower revenue forecasts. Avoiding big cuts makes political and economic sense, but if a return to surplus is more than a decade away, the “debt disaster” lines might need to be toned down a bit.

    The “childcare plan” to deliver “more money into families’ pockets” supposedly revealed on Tuesday, has not in fact been revealed at all. It will be based on the recommendations of the Productivity Commission, but the government hasn’t released the final report which it received last October. Which seems to make all these visits to childcare centres to talk about a “new policy” a bit premature. ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/time-is-running-out-for-tony-abbotts-chaotic-and-dysfunctional-government

  7. Fessy

    True,

    I believe on this occasion the Nats wont be involved as they are a separate party but event he Liberals don’t seem to know what the process is.

    Yet people wonder why the ALP have organised factions.

  8. Interesting developments that all 30 cabinet, junior ministers and parl secs are bound to vote for Abbott, or be booted to the backbench if they show their hand, yet they are leaking to the press like a sieve.

    Hartcher’s piece is an example, and the next few days will see a torrent of Abbott Bad stories in the press.

  9. mexican:

    Nats don’t sit in the Liberal partyroom, but I believe the CLP members do. Wondering what happens with the LNP members. If some of those Qld MPs don’t get a vote on the Lib leadership because they are deemed to be Nationals, this lessens the numbers eligible to vote in the ballot.

  12. mexicanbeemer@1557

    Fessy

    True,

    I believe on this occasion the Nats wont be involved as they are a separate party but event he Liberals don’t seem to know what the process is.

    Yet people wonder why the ALP have organised factions.

    It was discussed at length and it was noted that some of the LNP (from the former Libs) sit in the Lib party room and the rest sit in the Nat party room.

  13. Fess

    The Qld L-NPers get to choose which caucus they sit in. I think it something like 16 sit with Liberals, and 7 with the Nats.

  15. [1531
    ltep

    briefly, you might be interested in this story if you haven’t seen it already

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/wa-liberals-react-to-leadership-showdown/story-e6frfku9-1227210949359

    From that

    Senator Chris Back
    “I liken it to a family dispute and, therefore, best sorted out round the dining room table and not best sorted out in the public arena. Luke hasn’t approached me to canvass my views on the action he’s taken.”

    I’d say that probably puts him more towards supporting the spill.]

    It’s hard to know, but I expect you’re right…

  18. TrueBlueAussie@1541

    I reckon the punters are starting to get bored with the obvious editorilisation of the truth.

    yep, truthie

    The *Truth* is the tories have –

    – lost an almost unloseable SA election.

    – Lost a first term Vic election.

    – Got flogged in another first term election in Qld.

    – Are themselves at the throat of their own first term PM and

    – Are being flogged in the Polls Federally.

    What else can abbott do next to extend the damage ?

    He will come up with something….either way the vote goes next week.

  19. The best thing the Greek Government could is to dump the Euro, issue a new currency, redenominate all debts into the new currency, and spend heavily on job creation, infrastructure, and social services. The Euro experiment was a colossal failure. It’s better to face a difficult situation with autonomy of action than to endure relentless misery with no power to change anything.

  21. I’ve been busy and emailed all the SA Lib MPs expressing my disgust that they would even consider tossing a first-term PM and telling them I’d vote PUP if they get rid of a true blue Australian hero.

  23. from Heath Aston article

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-battler-of-point-piper-labor-plans-its-attack-on-malcolm-turnbull-20150206-13818e.html

    “They all voted for the budget. On budget night when Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott brought down their budget, they were slamming the desks and cheering and that’s the issue.

    Labor and their supporters should find a clip of the budget speech and edit it to show Turnbull’s reaction to various unpopular points made. and show the clip over and over again.

  24. Dio:

    That’s certainly PvO’s advice to Abbottophiles on social media:

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 8m 8 minutes ago
    There’s lots of far right wing anger on twitter tonight. My advice: take it out on your Liberal parliamentary reps, not on the rest of us…]

  26. [1569
    Nicholas]

    This has been the only realistic course of action ever since their insolvency was first revealed.

    Had they decided on this five years ago, the Greek economy would by now be growing. They could have implemented the necessary customs, monetary and fiscal reforms and been able to determine their own future.

    As it is, more pain still lies ahead.

  27. I remember that when Turnbull was knived the prelude was that most of the shadow cabinet resigned so that they could support the spill. I think this is probably a Liberal thing and the spill won’t get up unless we see some resignations over the weekend.
    Of course it is much easier to resign from the shadow cabinet than give away the cars, travel, extra pay etc that comes with having a grown ups ministry.

  28. Diogenes@1571

    I’ve been busy and emailed all the SA Lib MPs expressing my disgust that they would even consider tossing a first-term PM and telling them I’d vote PUP if they get rid of a true blue Australian hero.

    Norty!

    I see what you did there!

    👿

  32. [I remember that when Turnbull was knived the prelude was that most of the shadow cabinet resigned so that they could support the spill. I think this is probably a Liberal thing and the spill won’t get up unless we see some resignations over the weekend.
    Of course it is much easier to resign from the shadow cabinet than give away the cars, travel, extra pay etc that comes with having a grown ups ministry.]

    If this mandatory cabinet solidarity is correct then it will doom the spill motion to failure. Thankfully.

  34. [Nats don’t sit in the Liberal partyroom, but I believe the CLP members do.]

    Not all the CLP, Nigel Scullion sits with The Nationals and is their Senate leader.

  35. The reason there were cabinet resignations before the Abbott challenge was because those involved did not support the policy (ETS) and were going to cross the floor rather than vote for it.

    Some of those who remained in Cabinet voted against Turnbull when it came to the leadership challenge.

  37. I am watching Paul Murray live with Janet planet, john stanley and Rowan Dean. I am shocked to say that I am kinda agreeing with their assessments of the current state of play. Good grief!

  38. From Russia Today

    [The Australian prime minister, Tony Abbott, is going up against a vote at a party meeting next week, which will challenge his leadership position. Liberal Party members have called for a spill motion against Abbott after weeks of backdoor discussion.

    Abbott has come under a barrage of criticism lately, ranging from how he has handled the nation’s economic problems to granting an Australian knighthood to Queen Elizabeth’s husband, Prince Philip.]

    [Abbott, who was sworn in as the country’s PM in September 2013, has lately come under immense public ridicule for something not even connected to his domestic policy. The host of the November G20 summit promised to ‘shirtfront’ Russian President Vladimir Putin over the MH17 crash in eastern Ukraine. Instead, the two leaders posed for a joint cuddly picture with koalas.

    Abbott’s gaffe has since been named ‘the word of the year’ in Australia.
    ]

    http://on.rt.com/at5cn8

  39. If Turnbull wants to be PM he should say that he will resign from the ministry if there isn’t a secret ballot for the spill motion.

  41. [Abbott has come under a barrage of criticism lately, ranging from how he has handled the nation’s economic problems to granting an Australian knighthood to Queen Elizabeth’s husband, Prince Philip.]
    Pretty sure they meant Queen Elizabeth II.

  49. poroti

    I am freaking out with this Paul Murray panel. I am actually agreeing with a lot of what they are saying. What is wrong with me?!!

  50. Don’t ask me why I am watching Paul Murray live tonight. The guy is simply is paid conservative commentator who is as rabib and insane as they come.

    And I never never agree with that thug Rowan Dean but geez I agree with his assessment on Turnbull being a disaster.

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