The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
“@mrseankelly: Spot on, @CUhlmann – Gillard always fronted the media, in the toughest of situations.”
What a worm. At the first sign of sunlight, he squithers underground, out of sight.
[Uhlman and Cassidy speculating cancellation of presser indicates a resignation could be happening]
These two are demonstrating they don’t understand Abbott one bit.
I just heard the 61-39 result for Abbott. Perfect! Abbott stays in office, but hopelessly weakened. He is 11 votes away from losing Kirribilli House (the only prize he cares about?).
Bill Shorten has refused to comment on camera until he can find a way to stop smiling. Nothing is working so far.
Who was it who got 35 votes on their first attempt at the leadership? That was enough to keep the issue running. This vote is that much closer. It can’t be long left for Tony.
At least Gillard was still delivering legislation. Abbott is not getting anything through the Senate. He no longer has automatic support from the Murdoch empire, who are now reporting his frequent gaffs in unvarnished form. His polls are terrible. Mike Baird is about to lose at least a dozen State seats becaue of his PM’s unpopularity. On top of that, the economy is tanking, thanks tot a terrible budget. His treasurer does not seem up to the task. Abbott is surely gone.
And now for some fun…
On 23rd February, 2012, PM Gillard called Rudd’s bluff and announced a leadership ballot for Monday 27/2. Gillard won the ballot 71 votes to 31. The first Question Without notice was as follows:
[Mr ABBOTT (Warringah—Leader of the Opposition) (14:00): My question is to the Prime Minister. Given that one-third of her parliamentary colleagues and a quarter of her cabinet colleagues have today expressed their lack of confidence in her, how can she claim to have a mandate to continue as Prime Minister?]
I want Shorten to ask the same questions at 2PM today, word for word with gender/numbers changed for accuracy.
Why isn’t Abbott making a statement in front of (a) his own media (b) the ABC. He always clings to the commercials.
Someone came to the door and I missed the whole damn thang. Bugger!
PvO: Abbott is not a wrecker. (Um, what?)
Suggestion that Abbott might resign if a delegation of Libs went to him in a couple of months. Apparently resigning after a delegation of MPs tell you you’re gorn is NOTHING like anything that happened under Labor.
Also, Kroger says it’s not like Labor because no one’s called anyone else a psychopath.
Give it a few days, Michael — everyone was very respectful about Rudd to begin with, too.
Shorton’s prayers have been answered. Abbott’s destruction of the Liberal part continues.
A resignation statement sounds plausible for having only the single camera. It would be interesting to know if john howard has been given the ‘tap on the shoulder job’. 39 way too high – the hard heads will know that they will bleed to death if he doesn’t go know.
Feedback has got to Simkin
“@KarenMMiddleton: PM’s office clarifies he will do news conference before Question Time, which is at 2pm AEDT. Interim single-camera comment shortly #libspill”
Abbott is not fronting the media after that vote, but hiding away in his office to do a recorded statement?
Seriously?
zoomster @ 457
Abbott’s a psychopath. There. fixed.
[
A resignation statement sounds plausible for having only the single camera.
]
That’s what I was thinking. Very odd.
“”Speers saying Abbott visibly shocked when the result was announced.””
Just shows out of touch with reality this man really IS!.
Abbott on now
Julia Gillard sighted rolling in the sands at Brighton Beach, laughing her guts up.
Is this live or pre recorded?
dave
[Its not going to happen – but wouldn’t it be a sight if many of *the 39* voted against a government bill in a division?]
How about Andrew Laming’s bill to ditch knighthoods – surely that needs to be brought forward as a matter of community expectation 👿 😀
Tony Abbott has clearly learned nothing.
Pre-recorded.
Totally gutless.
guytaur@460
A gutless press gallery have still not taken abbott on for continually walking away from questions at pressers and for hiding from long format interviews.
Press Gallery = unfit for purpose.
[
Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 5s 5 seconds ago
PM Abbott ‘the focus now is once more on jobs, families, a stronger economy and a secure nation.’ #libspill
]
No, it’s on how long until your chucked by your colleagues.
https://twitter.com/latikambourke
What’s all this ‘we’ crap?
jeffemu
No no no. It’s convention for the “monarch” to make a stately progress on her own. That’s what Bishop (very senior) was doing. I’m surprised she didn’t nod her head to the left and to the right, in the manner of the Russian Empress in days gone by, acknowledging the peasantry.
you’re
Abbott fatally wounded. I give him 2 months
No authority – if most of the ministry voted for him, then backbenchers voted 2-1 against.
bets possible result Id say!
Notice no debt and deficit but a strong ecoomy
“I love this country”. What’s that saying about the refuge of a scoundrel?
Eric Abetz on local tas radio saying it was a resounding success and improvement on Abbott’s vote. I am embarrassed he is from my state
WereStuckWithTony
“@SamDickfos: GP co-payment reportedly gone. #libspill”
1934pc@464
He needed to immediately bring on the spill in order to get a renewed mandate from the party room.
But *brave, brave Sir abbott* ran away.
He ran away….again….
I know he wouldn’t have but when he started “I love…” I was half-expecting it to be “I love being Prime Minister”
Pre-recorded statement so he have a re-take if he started punching walls half way through.
guytaur@481
Yet another backflip with triple pike.
aka Newscrap speak, “Fine tuned a policy”.
Goodness me apparently Abbott told the partyroom that there now would be no changes to Medicare ie GP co payment will now be dropped
The MP Luke Simpkins from WA talking to Sky just said that about medicare
Abbott = gutless
Simpkins pulled up on making a fool out of himself.
[Speers saying Abbott visibly shocked]
At the scale of the spill vote, or that he survived?
“@GrogsGamut: Fair bit of confusion about the GP co-payment. Not dead, seems to be now at the “we will consult more” stage”
Agreed that this is a good result for Shorten.
What I would do now is tie the whole party to Abbott. They have endorsed his plan for Australia.
“until you elect a Prime Minister”…
What part of that we elect local members and then they chose a leader doesn’t he get?
Who votes informal in a spill? LOL
Lao –
[ How about Andrew Laming’s bill to ditch knighthoods ]
abbott probably thinks he has dealt with that by flicking it to the Honours Committee thingy, but as you say Laming and others may well have a different view on it all.
abbott could well make another Captains pick.
CTar
Abbott is part of the “we make our own reality” club.
Great comdey from the usual pundits – Bolt saying that the vote is a “revolt” against….Turnbull!!!
Can you believe it?
Simpkins now backtracking and says Abbott only promised to consult on Medicare changes.
61-39 – well I was close.
If Abbott now reverses all the disliked policies, will this make him popular with his ministers? They were the ones selling the bad news. Will it make him popular with his backbench, or even eran him respect?
Most important is – if he backflips on all the unpopular policies, will the voters learn to love and trust him again?