The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
Goodnight
I kind of agree with Oakes that if you get into 56-46 territory, Abbott would HAVE to consider standing down.
WeWantPaul@40
[It is interesting in a way that he killed himself with lies and evil faster than he killed Labor.]
With you there.
Glory @46:
Not true. There’s a precedent for this – the spill of Gorton in 1971. He chose to resign after a tied vote, seeing it as “not a vote of confidence”, rather than “a vote of no-confidence” in his leadership.
Abbott could easily choose the opposite.
[Well dave, if Labor weren’t so dysfunctional in the first place people wouldn’t have voted them out and got Abbott!]
Glen
You’re channelling Abbott and some of the more deranged News Limited commentators with the “it’s Labor’s fault” bullsh*t.
Abbott’s take over was only possible following the Americanisation of the Liberal Party — Cameron or Key would not get a run in Australia’s supposedly centre-right party. We see the likes of Young Libs working on Republican campaigns in the US; and that Generic Person (Robert Candelori) even used the Republican elephant as his avatar FFS!
Australian voters were never like the rednecks in the American South, but the crazy Liberal Party gleefully let Tea Party logic and supporters into the Party and the Parliament — anti-science, anti-reason nutters — and you were a part of it, voting for these crazies each and every time.
Shame on you.
Menzies would be spinning in his grave — just like Hewson and Fraser are today.
This week’s Bludgertrack is going to be a doozy.
[The Silver Bodgie
Posted Sunday, February 8, 2015 at 10:16 pm | PERMALINK
Now taking odds on whether Tony cries (3-1), or biffs someone (evens)
Hockey or Briggs would be a nice start.]
The Parliament House tradies are on red alert to fix wall damage.
The Emergency Department is on red alert to receive the wounded.
Matt@47
This is all a long way from done – even if turnbull replaces abbott as PM.
Payback will abound.
Plantagenets v Tudors all over.
I think There will be about 37 votes for the Spill motion. Abbott will claim total victory, but in reality he will limp along until he is challenged successfully in 1 month.
All this agonising on the part of coalition members and supporters brings to mind the last days of Richard Nixon, when the Republicans in Congress had to work out whether to support him or not. Sentiment and logic fought a brave battle, with logic ultimately winning.
We shouldn’t underestimate the extent to which the coalition members will be feeling genuinely torn. Most posters here dislike Mr Abbott intensely, but media reports suggest his colleagues like him a lot. They will remember him campaigning with them; the heady days when they had just won; and so on.
A few old ladies at a CoE fete described Turnbull as “the second coming”!
Jesus wept!
dave 58
The war of the posers
@35, true, and there’s some good money to be had on Morrison too 🙂
Nice to talk to you all to.
And now – I’d better get some sleep if I am going to be up with the sparrows to watch how the Libs deal with their own treachery.
What makes this truly funny is that ALP didn’t need to stoop to the degraded levels the coalition did during the Gillard/Rudd years. Sure the ALP made a heap of mistakes during their terms in office, but the self-inflicted harm of/by the coalition is truly staggering in its stupidity.
Darren Laver@61
There is one (or more) born every minute.
Suckers….
In a perfect world, Abbott gets the sack, quits parliament and is then found not to have relinquished his British citizenship – so no pension.
Please god.
Tom.
My prediction for tomorrow is that the Seinfeld Rule will hold which is that the first breakup never takes.
Tomorrow the Libs will go from ImStickingWithTony to ImStuckWithTony.
Than again I have been wRONg before. 🙁
Warren 🙂
[Menzies would be spinning in his grave — just like Hewson and Fraser are today.]
Menzies would vote for Shorten? I doubt it.
Gosh, I hadn’t heard the news about Hewson and Fraser either. So sad. Hewson was just making comments yesterday about the spill.
News happens so fast, its hard to keep up!
Haha 🙂
confessions,
It still needs to be said that in a vote like this they are more likely to vote for whomever they feel most represents their own ideology than for the one that rationally is more electable.
Still no article in the Australian.
I see this as a giant conspiracy!
Conspiracy I say…..conspiracy! :devil:
(Gosh, I can see why you guys do this, its awful fun!)
What about a Turnbull/Bishop unity ticket?
dave,
[Payback will abound.]
I damn well hope so 🙂
Does Abbott have dirt on Turnbull? That I gotta wish for..
[cud chewer
…Does Abbott have dirt on Turnbull? ]
An email perhaps?
Would Abbott be desperate enough to offer Peta up for sacrifice before the meeting tomorrow?
Matt @47
[Oh, how I wish that were a guarantee. But the media are embarrassing with the “Turnbull-as-Jesus- routine they’re pulling lately.]
Those in the Turnbull camp aren’t nearly as embarrassing as Hartcher was with his love letter to Bishop this weekend. Halfway through I had to double-check I wasn’t reading a profile in New Idea.
Tom @66,
That’s too good for Abbott. I want to see him barely win the spill motion, suffer all kinds of leaks, bring out another bad budget, have Morrison embarrass the lot of them, have internicine warfare with Turnbull then go on to the next election and down in the most ignominious fashion with all his chickens coming home to roost.
Then lose his pension 🙂
@75,
Probably a fake one 🙂
“What about a Turnbull/Bishop unity ticket?” I reckon Malcolm needs Julie more than she needs him. I doubt she will support Turnbull when the time comes.
Oh Happiness, why so bitter?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-leadership-crisis-judgment-day-as-newspoll-shows-pm-losing-voters/story-fn59niix-1227212412293
[Abbott leadership crisis: Judgment day as Newspoll shows PM losing voters
THE AUSTRALIAN FEBRUARY 08, 2015 10:40PM
Phillip Hudson
Bureau Chief
Canberra
TONY Abbott will enter this morning’s crucial partyroom meeting to face a verdict on his leadership under the shadow of the Coalition’s worst polling figures since his potential rival Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberal party in 2009.
The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively at the weekend for The Australian, also reveals that Mr Abbott is asking his Liberal colleagues to re-endorse him with his personal approval at record lows and the most dismal ranking for any prime minister since Paul Keating in 1994.
The Newspoll reveals that voters would overwhelmingly prefer Mr Turnbull or deputy leader Julie Bishop to be prime minister instead of Mr Abbott.
However, the poll also finds that Mr Turnbull is the least popular of the three among Liberal voters, with Mr Abbott the top choice among the party faithful, followed by Ms Bishop.]
Poll preview online article before the main one at midnight
I think this article by Michael Gordon covers the issues really well.
I’m coming to the conclusion that Abbott won’t go tomorrow morning, from sentiment, from fear of setting up a war of competitors (especially those who currently back Abbott and will be unhappy with his ouster) in his wake, and in the vain hope that Abbott really,truly can turn things around.
Once the reality of a move on Abbott is made concrete by the spill motion tomorrow, the prospect of dumping him will not be so bad at some future time, especially if he indulges in payback and turns dissatisfied back and front benchers into sworn enemies.
Still, anything is possible. There is another article in the SMH that likens the panic of MPs facing being dumped by their electorates with the dynamics of a run on banks. I think the comparison is somewhat stretched but the underlying concept of a sudden onset of panic is not:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-the-liberal-leadership-crisis-is-like-a-bank-run-20150208-138wi4.html
[ suffer all kinds of leaks, ]
Will be interesting to see. If the spill motion fails and Tony and Jo do the next Budget…will there be lots of leaks about that? That last one was such a surprise package fwark up you’d think they will want to fly a few kites to test the wind.
If Mr Abbott loses and there’s a new PM, will he be offered a ministry in the new Cabinet?
Having a former PM in Cabinet has happened before, quite a lot: Cook under Hughes; Hughes under Lyons, Page, Menzies and Fadden; Page under Menzies and Fadden; Menzies under Fadden; Fadden under Menzies; Forde under Chifley; McEwen under Gorton and McMahon; Gorton under McMahon; and of course, Rudd under Gillard.
Mr Abbott probably needs the money.
and this from Liberal voters is interesting
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m1 minute ago
#Newspoll Preferred LIB Leader (Bishop/Turnbull, LIB voters): Bishop 46 Turnbull 39 #auspol]
compared with the Turnbull 49, Bishop 38 with overall voters
Malcolm not so loved by the Tories
Just remember what I said.
Think like they do. They haven’t a clue their policies are wrong. They actually do believe that life hasn’t been fair to them. That its all about getting the message across. That the voters just need to think it through.
They will vote for whichever candidate most resembles their ideology over voting for the candidate who is most rationally electable.
In a two way between Abbott and Turnbull it will be close but Abbott will get up.
In a three way between Abbott, Turnbull and (say) Morrison, Turnbull will go out backwards in third place leaving a second round between Morrison and Abbott. With that choice and the belief that Morrison is more electable, he will easily win.
Remember, you heard it here first.
82
Did Abbott bring the vote forward to reduce the number of polls out before he leadership challenge?
would be effing hilarious if Abbott wins but only by a few votes! 🙂
And even if the spill motion fails, the same applies for next time.
Abbott -9 approve = 24 approve as leader, talk about a knecking.
H @ 75
[cud chewer
…Does Abbott have dirt on Turnbull?
An email perhaps?]
I bet Abetz provided Abbott with it >:O
wertwqrtaw
Mr Nikolic MP says damn the polls. He missed his calling in only being an MP in Australia: his thinking is more in line with that of the Japanese military leaders who wanted to continue the war after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
ShowsOn, I want him to win by ONE vote, to remind people how he won last time, by ONE vote, when a female MP (and reputed Turnbull supporter) was in hospital and unable to vote.
The Michael Gordon article I referred to in my post at 83
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sentiment-should-buy-tony-abbott-some-time-20150208-1390k9.html
Will we find out what the vote count was if it doesn’t get up?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-result-as-abbott-wins-liberal-leadership-by-one-vote–ets-dead-20091130-k1uz.html
Some nostalgia for you guys…
[Mr Abbott became the new leader of the Liberal Party after Mr Turnbull failed to survive a challenge sparked by infighting over the party’s policy on emissions trading.
Joe Hockey had also contested the leadership but lost in the first round, with Mr Abbott polling 35 votes, to Mr Turnbull’s 26 and Mr Hockey’s 23.
Abbott’s view of the world
In the second round between Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull, Mr Abbott polled 42 to Mr Turnbull’s 41.
There was one MP or senator who voted informally in the second vote. Sky News reported that the informal vote was marked with the word ‘‘no’’.
The result of the secret ballot vote on the emissions trading scheme was 54 to 29.
After a tumultuous week in Liberal politics, Mr Abbott took on the challenge after Mr Hockey revealed that he would run on a compromise position on emissions trading by allowing the party room a conscience vote on the controversial issue.
Julie Bishop will remain as deputy leader.
Tony Abbott told a press conference he was humbled and daunted by the job ahead leading the federal Liberal Party, and that there were wounds that needed to be healed.
He said it had been a tumultuous week for the Liberal Party, a big day for him and a tough day for some of his colleagues.
As he left the party room, he told reporters: ‘‘I’m a bit overwhelmed.’’
Abbott supporter Sophie Mirabella said the party would be united ‘‘absolutely’’ behind the new leader.
‘‘We’re moving forward, united,’’ she told reporters. ‘‘There’s great goodwill.’’
After the vote, Mr Turnbull said that he had congratulated Mr Abbott and wished him well with the leadership.
He said he would not be resigning from Parliament and there would be no byelection in his seat of Wentworth.]
However, the poll also finds that Mr Turnbull is the least popular of the three among Liberal voters, with Mr Abbott the top choice among the party faithful, followed by Ms Bishop.
If most oft he Libs read that article and I suppose most will, those that can read that is, it may through some doubt into the minds as what to do.
If Abbott ends up getting a casting vote and he doesn’t give in, it doesn’t give much confidence will it? I wonder how long before another spill.