The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
[would be effing hilarious if Abbott wins but only by a few votes! 🙂 ]
Either win or lose by one vote would be perfect.
Happiness @ 69: Menzies was a man of towering intellect, and he certainly would have been appalled at the contempt for science which this government has shown.
[It still needs to be said that in a vote like this they are more likely to vote for whomever they feel most represents their own ideology than for the one that rationally is more electable.]
I’m not so sure about that cud chewer. Take a look at the Liberal MPs who are speaking publicly for change. They are invariably in marginal Liberal seats, or sitting on low margins. Not about ideology, but about getting re-elected.
[Opposition Whip Alex Somlya, who announced the result, said there was no rancour in the room.
“[Mr Turnbull] said some very gracious words and wished Tony all the best,” he said.
Turnbull supporter Michael Keenan said: “We all support the new leader.”
“We will move forward as well as we can.”
Andrew Robb, whose opposed the deal Mr Turnbull negotiated with Labor, said the party could move forward “stronger”.
Fran Bailey was absent from the vote due to a medical condition.
A spokesman for the Victorian backbencher said she tried to obtain a proxy vote, but party rules prevented that.
‘‘Under medical advice she was prevented from any travel to Canberra,’’ he told AAP.
‘‘She did attempt to gain a proxy vote but party rules do not in fact allow for that.’’
Ms Bailey’s spokesman wouldn’t comment on whether she would have voted for Mr Turnbull, but she has been considered a supporter of the former leader in the past.
‘‘Fran was admitted to hospital over the weekend and required a MRI scan,’’ her spokesman said.
‘‘Those results were thankfully clear and Fran has now been discharged from hospital.’’]
[Will we find out what the vote count was if it doesn’t get up?]
Of course, because there are 102 people in the room so at least one person will leak it even before the Whip announces it.
[Will we find out what the vote count was if it doesn’t get up?]
Yes, an interesting question. From memory Labor does, but the Greens don’t.
Perhaps the Liberal party is somewhere in the middle. 😀
confessions,
That’s my point though, its not always rational. And some will simply want to believe that there is nothing wrong with their policies and they just need a new salesman.
Indeed a lot of them will think Turnbull is the wrong salesman because he doesn’t believe in those policies.
“the poll also finds that Mr Turnbull is the least popular of the three among Liberal voters, with Mr Abbott the top choice among the party faithful, followed by Ms Bishop” – something for the Libs to think about. Why would they alienate their own base by electing Turnbull. Bishop or Morrison will probably take over eventually. Turnbull will quit if that is the case.
For Malcolm it is an inversion of Groucho’s “Why would I want to belong to any club that would have me for a member?” In Malcolm’s case, “I want to lead a party that can’t stand me?”.
[Either win or lose by one vote would be perfect.]
Would be hilarious if the spill motion passes by 1 vote, but then Abbott doesn’t get the message so runs against Turnbull for the leadership, then Turnbull wins by 1 vote. 🙂
Gotta think like they do…
Raaraa @ 100: In the unlikely but not impossible event of a tied vote, my guess would be that Mr Abbott’s supporters would realise the game was, and would cut their loses and either procure his resignation (quoting the appropriate passages about loss of support from Nixon’s resignation speech) or arrange another vote.
Shows,
All else being equal I’d rather Turnbull not win. The partisan media will deify him.
showson
Rich comedy pickings in them thar shenanigans. 🙂
“game was up” – damn you, Crikey, for having no correction facility, and a preview function which only works about 10% of the time.
[That’s my point though, its not always rational.]
Well if their vote is based on ideology rather than what is more rationally electable for them, then they aren’t siding on the rational, but the ideological.
It’s damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
If they bring back Abbott, the voters will see more of the same government.
If they delivery someone else, the voters will remember that this party stand on the principal that it is “united” and different from Labor last term.
First dog gets in on the game:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2015/feb/08/first-dog-its-time-to-play-spill-the-liberal-party-leadership-democracy-deathmatch
[The Australian @australian · 12m 12 minutes ago
Abbott leadership crisis: Judgment day as Newspoll shows PM losing voters http://bit.ly/1AISkXy ]
Prediction
The Coalition will still be a shit government come Tuesday.
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 23m 23 minutes ago
A dissatisfaction rating like the PM now has is utterly devastating. The preferred PM gap is equally bad. And the party vote is very bad.]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/council-merger-plans-in-disarray-kwinana-cockburn-fremantle-and-south-perth-victoria-park-plans-voted-out/story-fnhocxo3-1227212126859?nk=67eaefc3976408e20c4d8cd174644068
I don’t get why some councils get a say and others don’t.
cud chewer
[Gotta think like they do…]
When trying to figger out what the Libs will do cud, I try to think like them, I really do.
But its bloody hard.
I was brung up to respect logic and evidence and reality tempered with empathy and I find I have to throw those things out the window and resort to blind dogma based on greed and selfish narrow-mindedness and a sense of innate superiority.
Even then their sheer stupidity and ignorance evades me and I come to a wrong understanding of what the Libs think, if in fact they do.
So I resort to tired old clichés. ‘bums on seats”, ‘in a choice between incompetence and conspiracy go for the former’ but the buggers still surprise me.
I reckon Abbott will survive tomorrow but really who knows?
Not the pundits.
That little Tasmanian chimp Nikolic is enjoying his relative un obscurity isn’t he.
By an odd coincidence, The Walking Dead returns to the small screen tomorrow, or so the promoters on Twitter advise.
I responded:
[@fxtvau Indeed it does! In Canberra … at 9.00 AM when the ghost of the #sydneysiege will be swept aside and zombies will rule.]
Who says advertising can’t be fun? 😉
Raaraa
Council amalgamations are another of emperor Barnett’s follies.
There is no logic at all in what he has done. The Tory voting western suburbs councils were spared.
I live in the City of Canning. We are to be absorbed by City of Gosnells. No vote allowed
Local member is Treasurer Mike Nahan. he was member of cabinet that signed off on this and last I heard he was not happy at how it has turned out. Too late.
The preferred PM rating is actually amazing…
[Abbott 30
Shorten 48
minus 18 to the sitting PM]
PMs hardly get negative ratings and certainly not of this magnitude.
Gillard’s worst was -12, which was an outlier (last survey); next worst was -5
In fact in my Newspoll database, I can only see ONE instance of a worse outcome for a PM. That was for Keating against, of all people, Dolly Downer (28 vs 48 = – 20) and well that was an abberation that quickly turned around
Another side show for tomorrow is who will be the journo that tweets the spill results first. First tweeter apparently has the best contacts, or something like that.
Still remember Coorey in his haste getting the Rudd/Gillard result totes wrong. It’s a real competition to be first for some reason for these bottom feeders. Coz we’re all gonna subscribe if they get in first. Suspect it’s a game amongst themselves.
fredex,
The key to understanding their mindset is to understand that they think their policies are good. Therefore what’s happening can only be explained by a) the message isn’t getting out b) That damn Senate c) those absent minded voters.
They’re not going to choose someone who will change policies. Not now anyway. Not unless they’re truly desperate.
What they truly think they need is another hard right winger who will prosecute their policies only not be such a turkey in the process.
[Hugh Riminton
Since last #Newspoll Abbott has gone from minus 25 satisfaction to -44. In canberra tonight one glum TA loyalist told me he’s gone #libspill]
Laocoon,
The problem I have with the personal ratings is that they attach to the person. Once you get rid of Abbott much of that evaporates. What we really need is a good measure of how much the average voter has figured out that this mob are ruled by bad ideas and bad policies.
[Council amalgamations are another of emperor Barnett’s follies.]
They are proposing a City of South Park FFS. That speaks volumes in my mind!
Lao:
There really isn’t much for the coalition to get excited about in this Newspoll.
The Liberal primary vote of 35 when Labor’s is in the 40s is more of a shocker to me.
pedant
Posted Sunday, February 8, 2015 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
Happiness @ 69: Menzies was a man of towering intellect, and he certainly would have been appalled at the contempt for science which this government has shown.
Menzies would be viewed as a left wing radical by todays right wing.
In his election speech (circa 1960) he bragged the his government had increased unemployment benefit to 50% of the average wage.
A bit different to todays right wing views on the dole
rossmcg@125
Thanks, I wasn’t aware of this. All I’ve heard about was about “South Park”.
cud/’fess
I have a scatter gram chart which compares net satisfaction of PM plot against 2PP. Good relationship as would be expected with contemporary “presidential” PM
When I compare Abbott’s to Gillard’s though, there is a bit less impact on the LNP vote from Abbott’s net satisfaction – but too few observations to really make a firm conclusion
If the vote us tied, Abbott uses his casting vote in his favour and claims a great victory for the Australian people.
sprocket 86
That “54-40” lead by Tony over Malcolm is a bit skewed. In that it is the 35% (or less if it is Liberal rather than Coalition) voters in this appalling bad 43-57 result.
So another way of looking at it is “The absolute rusted on Liberals back Abbott over Turnbull 54-40 despite the fact that this leaves them losing 43-57”
Which is probably right – if you were able to stratify these numbers even more I am sure that as you went further and further to the Right in the Liberal voters you would find a higher and higher percentage who would rather lose with Abbott than win with Turnbull.
Aussie Achmed @ 133: Menzies was a man of his times, and it’s hard to know where he would stand on some modern issues. In 1999 some people tried to argue that Menzies, if still alive then, would have been a republican; to which his daughter responded very reasonably that she, who knew him best, couldn’t guess what his position would have been on that issue, so how could anyone else know?
He was certainly a Keynesian, and a strong believer in the rule of law (in its best sense). But his views on issues of race were definitely not left wing in the modern sense.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/liberal-spill-and-poll-roundup-trouble.html
Liberal Spill and Poll Roundup: The Trouble With Political Jokes
… updated following Newspoll; I’ve also updated the Newspoll Wikipedia page!
Pedant @138:
Perhaps not…but how do you think Menzies circa 1960 would be greeted today, given that one of his big boasts was boosting unemployment benefits to 50% of AWE?
(For comparison’s sake: Today, newstart is ~25% of AWE.)
Evening all. Another 57/43 poll for Labor! The pols are showing marked consistency. Either Tony Abbott goes Monday or the Liberals do in a years time. Sweet 🙂
The trouble with political jokes is that they get elected…
Socrates @ 141
[Either Tony Abbott goes Monday or the Liberals do in a years time. Sweet :)]
Or Tony Abbott goes by mid-year after one more gaffe demonstrates he’s beyond redemption.
well done kevin great to see your work
Someone has probably posted this earlier. Apologies.
Shorten is right on the money.
[Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said that “it wasn’t the thousands of shipbuilding jobs at risk that forced Tony Abbott to act”.
“It was the threat of losing his own,” he said.]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/prime-minister-tony-abbott-promises-south-australia-chance-to-tender-for-future-submarines-project-to-win-leadership-votes/story-fni6uo1m-1227212228292
mari@713
I missed this earlier. I hope things will go well for Ruawake.
Everyman + dog can see Abbott has to go, but i think he will either survive or they will find someone other than Turnbull or Bishop to pin it to.
The problem isnt just Abbott, its the whole lot of them. They didnt even think the problem was serious until Murdock and Bolt told them so. (bolt did had to repeated himself a few times, he does try hard, have to give him points for that)
They think they where elected to reverse the progressive policies that Labor brought in, they think its their job to be extremists, listen to them boast about how they made tough decisions. They dont even think they are supposed to be governing for the center. They think they are misunderstood, and one day we are all goign to wake up and thank them.
Are there any ministers or policies that mainstream Australia are really happy about ? Even stopping the boats is a bittersweet victory for the center.
The Libs choose a leader to put up on a pedestal and hide behind, he is the champion that carries the banner of their extremist values.
Turnbull just isnt extreme enough, remember they got rid of him because he wasnt a climate denier. No way they can hide behind such a “normal” person.
And does anyone at all seriously think that Julie Bishop has a chance (maybe if her name was Julian). She is someone safe to have as deputy because then leader doesnt have to worry about her ambition. No glass ceiling there… (much)
They will pin it on whoever isnt going to challenge their way of thinking, which makes it a wasted exercise.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-07/tsipras-charts-path-forward-for-greece-as-funds-at-risk
[Tsipras, 40, will be addressing lawmakers exactly two weeks after his Syriza party swept into power with a promise to reject EU demands for more budget austerity. Among the measures the prime minister will announce Sunday are increases to some pensions, a property tax overhaul and a crackdown on tax evasion, newspaper Proto Thema reported.
Greece’s public debt stands at more than 320 billion euros ($362 billion), or about 175 percent of gross domestic product. That makes Greece Europe’s most-indebted country when measured against output.
“Faced with financial reality, the new Greek government will have to reverse or severely pare down its pre-election program,” Economides said. “Already, in a major U-turn, the government has abandoned the position that Greece will not fully pay its debt.”]
I think Abbott will survive, just. However it is not because the Liberals really want him to be leader, they just have not found an alternative to unite behind. When they do Abbott will be gone. Abbott is therefore going to be PM with a noose around his neck just waiting for someone to pull the lever to hang him.
Today’s funniest political moment for me was David Johnston scowling and, in scolding tones, telling an ABC reporter he wouldn’t comment publicly on internal Liberal Party matters (as if it is really all just a private affair) because to do so would only help Labor, who were responsible for all the trouble in the first place.
In the mind of the hapless David, Labor are to blame for the ideological, political and leadership splits in the Liberal Party – live comedy at Perth Airport.
More seriously, dark times lie ahead for the Federal Liberals.