Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

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  1. hello.
    I have been winding my way through the Adelaide HILLS today, in BK’s neck of the woods

    Meoldema says if there spill is voted down, then it was all a stunt to make Abbott look the tough guy and give him a reset.

    Ma says it all smells too convenient.

  2. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/08/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKBN0LC01D20150208

    [(Reuters) – China’s trade performance slumped in January, with exports falling 3.3 percent from year-ago levels while imports tumbled 19.9 percent, far worse than analysts had expected and highlighting deepening weakness in the Chinese economy.

    Chinese imports have fallen every month since October, seen as reflecting weak domestic demand, and the scale of January’s drop was mostly due to an across-the-board fall in import volumes of major commodities.

    For example, coal imports dropped nearly 40 percent to 16.78 million tonnes, down from December’s 27.22 million tonnes, and China also appeared to cut back on its strategic stocking of crude oil imports, which slid by 7.9 percent in volume terms.

    Imports from Australia and the Russian Federation, both major fuel and commodity suppliers, slid by 35.3 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively.]

    Whoever wins in the Liberal Party Room tomorrow will have to deal with a slowing economy and a fiscal position that is weak both structurally and cyclically.

  3. It was the night before Lib spill
    and all through the house
    not a creature was stirring not even a mouse
    then out came newspoll oh what a clatter
    but Abbott supporters thought it just doesn’t matter
    ……….
    feel free to edit or add to this little ditty

  4. [Newspoll

    57-43 2PP to Labor]

    Pack your bags Tones.

    And bring on the next suicide squad from the current Liberal party and its supporters.

    Even Shorten can walk it in from here.

  5. Abbott:
    What news more?
    Credlin:
    All is confirm’d, my lord, which was reported.
    Abbott:
    I’ll fight till from my bones my flesh be hack’d.
    Give me my armour.
    Credlin:
    ‘Tis not needed yet.
    Abbott:
    I’ll put it on.
    Send out the whips; skirr the building round;
    Hang those that talk of fear. Give me mine armour.
    Ring the alarum-bell! Blow, wind! come, wrack!
    At least we’ll die with harness on our back.

  6. Briefly @152:

    And why is there structural weakness in the Budget? Largely because Howard and Costello (they sound like a bad comedy duo, phrased like that – but the reality’s worse) used one-off revenue booms to “pay for” permanent spending increases and tax cuts.

    Reverse the utterly irresponsible Howard tax cuts, as well as his FTB (B) – both utterly cynical vote-buying attempts – and the structural budget weakness goes away, making the deficit a matter of countercyclical spending…as it should be.

    Why should today’s pensioners and unemployed pay for John Howard’s vote-buying a decade ago? He didn’t try to buy our votes – he tried to buy the votes of the well-to-do by shoveling more money at them. They got the splurge, they should give it up now.

    Let them foot the bill for fixing the Budget, if the Budget must be “fixed” at all!

    (Alternatively, you could cap the superannuation tax concessions, limit negative gearing to residential properties only and crack down on multinational tax evaders, which would more than balance the Budget between them….naaaaah.)

  7. Off to bed. By the time I get up in the morning (I’m in Perth) it should just about be over.

    A prediction of what won’t happen, but would make me laugh if it did: the party votes 72-30 for a spill, and then Abbott defeats Turnbull 70-32 – because they have no confidence in Abbott, but they really don’t want Turnbull either.

  8. [but historical parallels suggest he can still survive and prosper.”]

    Which part of “gone” doesn’t he get?

    It’s tomorrow or 3 months.

  9. WEll….Nuttertruckers have it all worked out.

    [ Australians should beware. This has Obama’s and Cameron’s fingerprints all over it. ]

    [ Turnbull, is a weasel who needs to be put back in his cage. Abbot must see him off – the world depends on it. ]

    Some of them REALLY have a hard time getting their heads around those horrid leftards wanting Abbott to stay in place. 🙂

    Its quite funny really.

    Piers Ackermans blog is still the most sewer like at the moment though. 🙁 Funny that who would have guessed.

  10. Yesterday’s subs ‘promise’ shows Abbott has not changed. He has a tendency of making promises he doesn’t need to make on the verge of decisions he’ll likely win anyway (the 2013 election being one of them).

  11. [“It remains a long way back for the Prime Minister but historical parallels suggest he can still survive and prosper.”]

    How many leaders of political parties have survived a challenge and then gone on to win the next election in the last 40 years? 0.

  12. 24 Melissa Clarke emphasis on 18 front benchers came out in support of Abbott after urging by PMO.

    Rest support spill or weighing decison. She also thinks there are at least 40 votes for the spill.

    Happy news

  13. “@becfrolics: #ImStickingWithTony because he told us he’s not there to be popular and he’s certainly delivered on that promise.”

  14. “@bevanshields85: Barrie Cassidy predicts the partyroom could vote on the leadership AGAIN tomorrow if the spill motion doesn’t get up today #auspol #libspill”

  15. I don’t think it’ll be that close meher. Wiser heads must surely know if the spill isn’t going to get up there’s no point supporting it. I’d be surprised if it gets over 25 votes.

  16. Raaraa:

    Shorten is right on the money.

    [Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said that “it wasn’t the thousands of shipbuilding jobs at risk that forced Tony Abbott to act”.]

    [“It was the threat of losing his own,” he said.]

    Worth posting again. Shorten just needs to go one step further and point out that this is a big part of Abbott’s problem with the wider public. He and his government are basically governing for themselves, Gina Reinhart and Rupert Murdoch. Whether that would change under Turnbull is another thing.

  17. I think the DT story is talking about the Liberal base rather than the voters. I don’t think the Liberals are yet desperate enough to hold their noses and elect Turnbull.

  18. Raaraa 146 – thanks for pointing out mari 713 post on previous thread which I somehow missed

    Mari R ‏@randlight
    @afvruawake Are you all OK havn’t heard from you since end January?

    Comrade ruawake ‏@afvruawake
    @randlight Im fine thanks,start 5th round of chemo tomorrow, hopefully will be over in March

    Best wishes to Rua – far more important than Abbott’s problems.

  19. Morning all. The SMH editorial says that Abbott should have a leadership ballott whether the spill motion is passed or not. It points out Abbott’s unpopularity, implications for NSW, and problems in
    leadership style. A “tactical win” may keep the captain on the bridge, but will not give confidence to the ship of state. The editorial does not call for a new leader, but sets out sll the reasons why a vote is needed. It is not flattering to Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abbott-must-declare-positions-vacant-if-spill-vote-is-close-20150208-138uy1.html

  20. Incidentally the SMH editorial is almost the opposite of the Daily Telegraph editorial. The latter warns of voter revolt id there is a leader change. The former points out all the evidence of voter revolt causing the need for a leader change.

  21. “@jmodoh: Graham Richardson: Cabinet minister told me Turnbull has over 40 votes. On those numbers, Abbott is done and dusted @SkyNewsAust #libspill”

  22. Off to work. Must plan a quick tea break after 9 to catch up – I like Barrie Cassidy’s idea of Abbott surviving spill today and then confronting another tomorrow! Would be so ironic given the Andrews’ stalking horse challenge of 2009.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m going to enjoy putting this one together!

    Mark Kenny – It’s Abbott’s moment of truth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-moment-of-truth-20150208-1394wj.html
    Laura Tingle – Abbott alienation kicks into overdrive. A good article.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/tony_abbott_alienation_factor_kicks_WxiFYd6GqpxxmXeIECpSdK
    This SMH editorial says Abbott should do the decent thing and declare positions vacant if the spill vote is reasonably close. But don’t hold your breath!.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abbott-must-declare-positions-vacant-if-spill-vote-is-close-20150208-138uy1.html
    Paul Sheehan – Something’s got to give , somebody’s got to go.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/liberal-spill-something-has-to-give-someone-has-to-go-20150208-138z50.html
    And Tone is toxic in his own state!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/abbott-government-performance-driving-away-one-in-10-coalition-voters-in-nsw-20150208-138wvd.html
    Lenore Taylor says that regardless of the spill motion outcome Abbott is gorn!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/08/whether-he-survives-the-leadership-spill-or-not-tony-abbotts-time-is-up
    Michelle Grattan characterises Abbott’s position as a plea for extra time on probation.
    https://theconversation.com/newspoll-delivers-publics-indictment-of-abbott-as-he-faces-liberals-verdict-37336
    Sinodinos gives legitimacy to the spill motion.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sinodinos-support-for-leadership-spill-legitimises-opposition-to-prime-minister-tony-abbott-say-colleagues-20150208-1393w5.html
    Australia’s newspapers now effectively admit the alternative media were right and they were wrong. Seventeen months too late. The Independent Australia’s Alan Austin reports. Tell us about it!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/about-tony-abbott-we-hate-to-say-we-told-you-so-,7348
    The 36 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/08/thirty-six-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-191-partly-restored/

  24. guytaur – would love Tony to “win” spill motion about 60-40.

    Chaos. Everyone would point out that Gillard got 71 v Rudd 31 and look where that ended up. Love it that it is also exacty the same numbers as Labor was = 102 voters – though apparently there may be one absent.

  25. Section 2 . . .

    Tearing down the Abbott fairytales one by one.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/02/08/tearing-abbott-fairytales-one-one/
    Amanda Vanstone – Why Abbott is in peril.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-tony-abbotts-leadership-is-in-peril-20150208-138wz3.html
    The Liberal leadership tensions give neglected backbenchers a voice.
    https://theconversation.com/liberal-leadership-tensions-give-neglected-backbenchers-a-voice-37328
    Mark Kenny on the mechanics of leadership change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/leadership-vote-common-features-emerge-as-it-all-happens-again-20150208-13956l.html
    Peter Hartcher says the hopeless Abbott should stop dragging out the “we’re not Labor” slogan.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/hopeless-tony-abbott-is-laboring-his-leadership-pitch-point-20150208-1396qs.html
    Cross benchers say it’s the policies that are the problem. They have a point.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crossbenchers-say-its-the-policies-not-the-leader-20150208-139242.html
    Ebola takes over leukaemia as preferred Prime Minister.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/02/08/ebola-overtakes-leukemia-most-preferred-prime-minister
    Katharine Murphy – How the real Tony Abbott disappeared in 2013.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/08/how-liberal-party-machine-swallowed-tony-abbott
    Windbag Tony Wright spoofs an exchange between Abbott and Credlin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/whats-this-spill-thing-somebody-think-i-came-off-my-bike-or-something-20150208-138ztb.html
    This Liberal leadership crisis has all the hallmarks of a bank run. an interesting alanlogy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-the-liberal-leadership-crisis-is-like-a-bank-run-20150208-138wi4.html

  26. Section 3 . . .

    The AMA says there is a sea of angry doctors out there.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/08/extremely-angry-doctors-demand-pm-dump-planned-medicare-rebate-changes
    You’ll have to scroll through these Fairfax cartoons.
    http://theage.com.au/victoria/cartoons-for-monday-february-9-20150208-1396ju.html
    David Pope continues his awesome work.

    Pat Campbell has Treasurer Joe doing the counting.

    A cracker from Mark Knight!

    Bill Leak and the blame game.

    David Rowe gives us King Canute and he Sea of Discontent.

  27. briefly

    Looks like the SYRIZANs had better start looking for Plan B. Plan A, Bad Faith Greeksmail, which they took to the elections, and which was much beloved by Greens on Bludger, took a fortnight to turn to crap. The backflips are coming thick and fast.

    As for China… yikes!

  28. Rather than quote Shakespeare, this seems a more appropriate verse to sum up Abbott:

    Tony Abbott sat on the wall.
    Tony’s numbers had a big fall.
    All Gina’s money and all Rupert’s men
    Couldn’t put Tony together again.

  29. BK
    Thank you.
    Rowe is a cracker: the 2014 budget swine floating upside down, the hunnish helmet worn by Brandis, JBishop doing ‘Oh Meow’, the roman eagles slightly modified to a ‘T’, Turnbull with his sands-of-time machine, Johnstone under water, Sinodinos – as happy as – and so on and so forth.

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