Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar@194

    briefly

    Looks like the SYRIZANs had better start looking for Plan B. Plan A, Bad Faith Greeksmail, which they took to the elections, and which was much beloved by Greens on Bludger, took a fortnight to turn to crap. The backflips are coming thick and fast.

    As for China… yikes!

    Syriza should default on the debt and leave the failure that is the Euro.

  4. Lenore Taylor:

    [Big parts of the last budget still languish, rejected by the public and the Senate, but he’s sticking with them. Finance minister Mathias Cormann insisted on Sunday that no minister had ever suggested to him that last year’s budget was unfair. If true, that puts the cabinet about a million miles out of step with views in the electorate.]

    Does this mean MPs are too frightened of Matthias to criticise the budget? Or are they all deaf?

  5. BK 196

    We already know the answer to that from when he had to deal with the four independents in 2010. He couldn’t negotiate, only demand. He wound up losing their support.

    Bringing forward the vote illustrates Abbott’s style – he uses tricks to win a battle, but loses the war. He can only divide and fight, he cannot persuade. Once any MP sets their mind against Abbott, they will not return to the fold. In the end, he will antagonise enough MPs to overthrow him, even though in the short term he may bully a few into voting for him.

  7. Re the “voter revolt”: the Tea Party/climate denial stuff is posing an enormous long-term problem for the Libs. It is an uncompromising “support base” comprising less educated/less intelligent people of all ages plus a lot of old age pensioners (yes, ironically, a huge proportion of the “I want the Government out of my life” brigade – both here and in the US – subsist almost entirely on government payments, are massive users of public medicine, etc).

    The likes of Rupert, Gina and Maurice Newman aside, this support base is not particularly wealthy or even aspirational, and is, if anything, under represented in marginal seats. And, as the current polls suggest, it’s a long way short of being a majority of the population.

    But, in recent years,the Coalition parties have been increasingly forced to dance to its tune. And, as it is firmly and irrationally convinced that climate change is a socialist conspiracy, it won’t have the likes of Turnbull at any price.

    What the Libs need to do is to stop listening to it: in the same way that Labor now finally seems to have learnt to stop listening to the bleeding hearts re boat people and let them drift off to the Greens.

    The Libs desperately need a far right, tinfoil hat party to spring up to take the running on the issues that appeal to their far right support base, but alienate the swinging voters.

  11. My predictions of todays winners:

    1. Shorten (he cannot lose this contest)
    2. Australia
    3. Turnbull or Bishop

    Even if Abbott “wins” today, he will be gone before the NSW state election. I also predict that if there is any media interview or photo of Julia Gillard today, she will be wearing a broad smile.

    When this started a lot of us thought it might depend on the Newspoll due before it, which might be as bad as 57/43. Despite Abbott advancing the leadership vote the Newspoll is out, it is as bad as feared, and other polls suggest Abbott threatens to cost Baird dozens of seats. If the Liberal backbench do not vote him out quickly they have lost their minds. They are choosing a slow death.

    Have a good day all. Should be fun.

  12. mb

    [But, in recent years,the Coalition parties have been increasingly forced to dance to its tune. ]

    Well put and precisely why they’re stuffed.

    Even people like me who have enough super to be comfortable don’t approve of flogging pensioners and the unemployed.

  13. meher baba @207, absolutely right. As I pointed out last night, Abbott has to appease two diametrically opposed constituencies. Diabolical problem that he appears incapable of solving to the satisfaction of both.

  14. [“@bevanshields85: Barrie Cassidy predicts the partyroom could vote on the leadership AGAIN tomorrow if the spill motion doesn’t get up today #auspol #libspill”]

    I’ve wonder over the weekend if this might happen. Once the MPs wanting a spill can meet and organise (Abbott killed that by bringing the meeting forward) the hunters might send in a spear thrower and launch an attack. Go for it! I say.

  18. Rua

    All the best with the treatment. I hope you can post your thoughts on politics at some stage soon as you are such a consistently good judge of the state of play.

  20. Interesting point made by Barrie Cassidy on the question of the “secret ballot”. He says the reality is they’re “packed in like sardines” in the party room and are basically looking over one another’s shoulder as they mark down their vote. So secret? Not really. Would you risk your Cabinet job by hoping noone sees you? Not really. And what inference would be drawn if a Cabinet minister were seen to be trying to hide his/her ballot paper in the style of modern ATM practice?

  21. Bernardi stating that there is a Cabinet contingent backing the spill and that these members have been dividing up the positions.

  22. I would say given Abbott’s street fighting tendencies that the word has probably been put out that anyone seen to be voting in favour of the spill motion, Minister or otherwise, can expect a backlash in one way or another.

    My prediction: Votes in favour of spill motion: 28. Abbott limps on and is replaced by perhaps another candidate later this yawer.

  24. Thanks for all the good vibes, last month I had to spend 5 days in hospital with febrile neutropenia, taking prednisolone this time hoping to stop the fevers.

    Only one more “round” of chemo to go after this one, at least I will have something to watch on the telly. 🙂

  31. “@srpeatling: LIb MP Ross Vasta’s wife just had baby so he is absent from Parliament. That means only 51 votes are needed for the spill motion to succeed.”

  32. I’ve said it before, but I really wish the pollsters would break up the over-50s sensibly. With more people living past 65, many with marbles all intact, it is ridiculous to place an 85-year old in the same cohort as a 60-year old. One is a baby boomer and one was born between the wars.

  39. lizzie@204

    Lenore Taylor:

    Big parts of the last budget still languish, rejected by the public and the Senate, but he’s sticking with them. Finance minister Mathias Cormann insisted on Sunday that no minister had ever suggested to him that last year’s budget was unfair. If true, that puts the cabinet about a million miles out of step with views in the electorate.


    Does this mean MPs are too frightened of Matthias to criticise the budget? Or are they all deaf?

    It certainly means Lenore is one of the first, if not the first to call BS on Cormann – he gets away unchallenged in his media interviews.

    Same happened with hockey until he went too far and now he is gets occassionally challenged.

  41. Best wishes Rua, I sympathise with the procedure and it puts other things in perspective. I hope todays results will give you a laugh.

  44. dave

    I don’t think that repeating the same learned responses to every question is a sign of intelligence, yet Cormann seems to be admired by many. He also pours out such as stream of yadayadayada that it is difficult to interrupt/question him. Doesn’t mean the listener buys his spiel.

  45. Xanthippe pointed out that Abbott has a marked behavioural tick – bobble head. When he is challenged or threatened his instinct is fight, not flight. As with that interview with the channel 7 reporter, he bobbles his head from side to side in a semi nod, perhaps suppressing rage?

    The numbers men will have rung everyone on the weekend and already know the result. Abbott will know. So, if you see Abbott walking into the building with that appalling smug look, then you know he has the numbers. If you see him walking in doing the bobble-head, then you know he knows he has lost. If you see him looking catatonic, then he was on the turps last night and hasn’t a clue 🙂

  46. [224
    ruawake
    Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 7:47 am | PERMALINK
    Thanks for all the good vibes, last month I had to spend 5 days in hospital with febrile neutropenia, taking prednisolone this time hoping to stop the fevers.

    Only one more “round” of chemo to go after this one, at least I will have something to watch on the telly. 🙂 ]

    All the best, Ru.

  49. There is a bloke who looks like the old guy from karate kid holding a board with a smiley face saying Welcome Malcom Save Australia on it near turnbull’s electoral office

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