Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

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  1. Best result for Labor will be that Abbott wins the spill motion.

    Fools can’t see that the matter do a disunited party is already settled.

    Andrew Nikolic, the temporary member for Bass is just giving an extended I/V on 24 in which he is saying over and over that a win for Abbott this morning will settle the matter. Deluded.

    He also just described Abbott’s 16 months as PM as “magnificent”. Extraordinarily deluded.

    BTW 24 just showed Abbott, Mrs Abbott and the excuse-for-a-Defence Minister at Holy Mass this morning, seeking Dog’s support. Ha Ha. (And I’m raised as a RC).

    Even Ulmann now saying today’s vote if Abbott wins, makes no difference to his inevitable demise.

  2. In Elder’s piece

    [Abbott kept Arthur Sinodinos’ job open for him for over a year (hell, the Liberal Party only gave Harold Holt a month). Abbott copped a lot of stick for that. To see Sinodinos turn on Abbott was pretty low – had he held his water and stood by the leader, he would have demonstrated the integrity his supporters insist is the essence of the man. I wouldn’t give him any job after this.]

  3. Power at any price.

    Ulmann saying that the Captain’s Call to satisfy Senator Edwards is a $40 billion call (bribe).

    BTW it was not Holy Mass that they have just attended. Was Canberra Baptist Church.

    And both Bishops were there too.

    Dog save us!!!

  4. psyclaw

    [Andrew Nikolic, the temporary member for Bass is just giving an extended I/V on 24]

    I doubt that anyone cares what he says.

  5. [Cory Bernardi warns that the Liberals might be entering a “moral abyss”. Lulz.]

    Do these clowns realise that their words will be used against them if not today then when Abbott is dumped in a few weeks, or maybe even as early as tomorrow?

  6. Best result would be 52 against 49 for the spill with Vasta absent for the birth of his child.

    That would generate the best free entertainment for a couple more days.

  7. shellbell, that bloke is a serial pest and i believe a former Ashfield councilor. Total nut case, used to see him waving his sandwich board outside Howards electorate office. Occasionally had a dog with him.

  8. Lizzie’s #232

    Re demographies..

    Too true! As a baby boomer generally speaking I have very little in common with the those over about 75. I see them as more in line with my parent’s generation.

  9. alias@220

    Interesting point made by Barrie Cassidy on the question of the “secret ballot”. He says the reality is they’re “packed in like sardines” in the party room and are basically looking over one another’s shoulder as they mark down their vote. So secret? Not really.

    The poor dears – wonder who tied their shoe laces for them this morning.

    Life is soooo hard!

  10. Psyclaw: What was even more interesting about the Nikolic interview was hearing the change of narrative from “the electorate got rid of Labor because of the Debt and Deficit Disaster!” to “the electorate got rid of Labor because of the leadershit”.

    He’s not the only MP (Abbott supporter) I’ve heard say that over the past few days.

    Just listening to Lambie now having a go at both Abbott and Abetz. I must say I’m really warming to her 😀

  11. LOL!!

    [David Flint @profdavidflint · 2h 2 hours ago
    Surely the Liberal politicians have learned from the Menzies & Howard eras not to bring down a great leader.]

  12. Jon Faine states the crisis in the coalition is not just a question of leadership, it is a fight for the heart and soul of fhe party and what it stands for

  13. v
    They have suggested pretty well all the possibilities. They know that the secret ballot will probably result in lots of people saying one thing in public and doing another thing in private.

    Given the wroth, the viciousness and vengefulness that Credlin is 100% certain to inflict on non-believers, it is a no-brainer that people will hide their true feelings until they get the pencil and the ballot paper.

  14. Ctar1

    Agree.

    But it shows how bereft of talent, common sense, and rationality this mob is.

    Nikolic and Cormann (who is everywhere ) are singing from the same hymn sheet …… all will be well when Tony wins today. Fools.

  15. ‘ Fess

    [ David Flint @profdavidflint · 2h 2 hours ago
    Surely the Liberal politicians have learned from the Menzies & Howard eras not to bring down a great leader. ]

    Nothing like some light(weight) humour early on a ‘hanging monday’ 🙂

  16. dave:

    All this pumping for Abbott leads to the conclusion that if he remains leader today he’ll be even more arrogant than he has in the past.

  17. BK@285

    guytaur
    Surely if it’s indecisive it’s decisive!

    Yep. And if it is indecisive, Abbott should make a real captain’s call and declare all positions open.

  18. David Flint @profdavidflint · 2h 2 hours ago
    Surely the Liberal politicians have learned from the Menzies & Howard eras not to bring down a great leader.

    They probably have learnt, but we are talking about Abbott and co. here 🙂

    Tom.

  19. dave@289

    ltep@287

    The only decisive outcome can be a spill so both sides are wrong.

    Without a spill it all just nonsense and leaves them where they are already.

    Not so.

    The very fact that there is a spill motion changes everything, no matter what the result of voting. Abbott will get rolled sooner or later once that point has been reached.

  20. ‘fess

    [David Flint @profdavidflint · 2h 2 hours ago
    Surely the Liberal politicians have learned from the Menzies & Howard eras not to bring down a great leader.}

    A great Leader … totally lost in space.

  21. Victoria re Faine and the fight for the Liberal Party’s heart and soul.

    Benardi’s now hi-profile entry into the fray confirms that, and especially his targetting Turnbull.

    Also, Turnbull’s signalling speech yesterday tha once a spill, anyone can challenge without fear or favour has told his intentions. So how does he sit if Abbott wins. Shoul he go to the back bench?

    Probably not, because as Cormann told ABC AM earlier Turnbull ” is an outstanding minister who totally supports Abbott”

  22. Gottliebsen –

    [ Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill mine is set for nasty losses

    IF THE current iron ore price decline continues into 2017 and beyond, then Gina Rinehart’s massive $10 billion Roy Hill mine project is set for very large losses when it starts production next year.

    And if the reports of safety problems in the construction phase are right, then the capital costs will blow out beyond $10bn, especially if unions start playing hard ball, as they often do when there is a safety cause.

    …Roy Hill is not a high-cost miner longer term, but in the short term it will be a very high cost mine but construction is well beyond the point of no return. Apart from their statutory requirements, many of the banks will be reluctant to put up more money. But there could be games of bluff if substantial funds are required to cover higher than expected losses and any capital blowout. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/gina-rineharts-roy-hill-mine-is-set-for-nasty-losses/story-fnp85ntp-1227212641291?nk=f881998fd6cf7c79e14812c98c2a50b8

  23. Loved Shorten’s response to the ‘we’re just like Labor’ nonsense from the Liberals. Reminds everyone that Labor changed its rules so this kind of stuff can’t happen anymore.

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