Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

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  6. Tony will hang on. The hard right know that they can’t win with him, but they need to wait to install their preferred candidate (S Morrison), until closer to the election, so he can campaign in a honeymoon period.

    The hatred for Turnbull within the party is too deep.

  7. don@293

    [ Not so.

    The very fact that there is a spill motion changes everything, no matter what the result of voting. Abbott will get rolled sooner or later once that point has been reached. ]

    Yes abbott will get rolled sooner or later – not having that tested in a spill leaves them with their three main problems intact –

    – A Party Room divided.

    – Dead Skunk Policies.

    – Electorate after their blood in the Polls.

    Without a spill it all just nonsense and leaves them where they are already and the job still ahead of them.

    Still that works to Labors benefit

  16. “@latikambourke: Great question. RT @JoannaEHeath: Where’s Joe Hockey? Not with the PM in the front rows of that group…..”

  20. Journo to Cormann: Do you feel sorry for the women of Australia, who stand to lose the PM and the Minister for Women in one day?

    LOLZ.

  22. Both Cassidy and Uhlmann have said a yes vote in the mid to high 30s gives Abbott immediate problems, sufficient enough for him to consider whether he should resign.

  23. [Both Cassidy and Uhlmann have said a yes vote in the mid to high 30s gives Abbott immediate problems, sufficient enough for him to consider whether he should resign.]

    He will never consider resigning. It just isn’t within his character.

  24. BK

    [A red and black tie just walked past! Oops – it’s Kelvin Thompson.]

    Fried-in-berg also not having a blue tie this morning.

  26. If the Spill motion succeeds, I assume there’s an open position of leader

    Does Abbott bother standing if he loses spill motion?

  30. [If the Spill motion succeeds, I assume there’s an open position of leader

    Does Abbott bother standing if he loses spill motion?]

    I don’t know. Depends how close it is I guess. If it’s very close there’s a possibility some won’t be able to countenance Turnbull as leader. Alternatively, it frees up the ministry to vote as they choose.

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