The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
A house divided –
[ Senator Bernardi told Fairfax Media –
“Those that are involved in this plot against the PM need to gather up what’s left of their integrity and determine whether they should sit around the cabinet table. It’s not just Turnbull.” ]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-leadership-crisis-coalition-faces-worst-polling-result-for-six-years-20150208-1399pr.html
Reith saying on SKY that the 39 result will have already shifted some Cabinet members away from Abbott – he’s saying it’s already likely to be 45/50 for another spill (but giving it a couple of months).
Puff
[When are we going to teach Civics in our schools?]
We do. Perhaps we didn’t thirty years ago.
I have had a gutful of Abbott Hockey and Co and would agree that it would be better for the nation and the economy, if they were dumped today.
Get Annabel Crabb off my screen now ABC. Totally useless.
Peter Reith reckons a very bad day for Abbott and it is only a matter of time
vic
Yes, as much as I like what it does for Labor, I want Abbott and Hockey gone. They are hopeless.
zoomster
I thought it never made the National Curriculum thingy because they could not decide what to teach, or was that History?
It’s worth revisiting today’s Rowe.
😀
The March of the Blue Ties. Says it all really.
Well Look A, Look A…
This outcome won’t help NSW state tories.
They will still win – but hopefully without control of the upper house.
Matt Foley get in and tie baird to abbott as much as possible.
Oh joy!
Cartoonists across Australia rejoice in the stay of execution.
Yes Sir Mad Cyril – part of me happy but really want Abbott and especially Pyne GONE
Sir Mad Cyril
I have been conflicted. On one hand, longer Abbott stays, better chance for a change of govt at next election. But keeping him and his team in place is wrecking the joint and I want this chapter of the Abbott book closed.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/liberal-spill-and-poll-roundup-trouble.html
Liberal Spill and Poll Roundup: The Trouble With Political Jokes
Brief update on outcome added. 39 is much too high for Abbott.
Expect Hockey to jump ship early in a last ditch attempt to save his job.
Crikey how bad are the Fibs… someone obviously forgot to wake old Kero Head up after the Spill Vote.
She was just seen wandering disorientated down the hallway by herself.
I hope she can find her way to some supervised help
Its not going to happen – but wouldn’t it be a sight if many of *the 39* voted against a government bill in a division? 🙂
dave
[This outcome won’t help NSW state tories.]
Baird will make it but it will be close.
No doubt he’ll call into Kirribille to thank Tones for his help.
Speers, Gilbert, CKenny, PVO and Peter Reith seem really deflated on Sky
Ah, the Libs can’t even get their spill done right. And an informal?
Maybe they should have asked 3 questions for the spill motion:
A) Are we voting for a new leader?
B) Are we voting for a new deputy leader?
C) Are we voting for a new chief of staff?
Someone was absent on Pat-ternity leave according to Ruddock.
“@BernardKeane: Issue is, what concession does Abbott make at his press conference? He needs to throw some red meat to the disaffected 39. Has to be big.”
[Stephen Mayne @MayneReport · 23m 23 minutes ago
Luke Foley over-joyed. Just watch Labor roll out Abbott throughout the NSW campaign.]
Henry:
Ross Vasta.
It makes no difference to Australia who leads the Liberal Party.
Its still the Liberal Party with Liberal Party dogma, values and ‘policies’.
It might make a difference to the media spin and smokescreen in the short term but that’s all -the IPA/Rupert/BCA et al are still there undiminished.
Its best that this fiasco drags on and does as much damage as possible to the *cough* ‘brand’ and the closeness of this result guarantees the issue is not over.
I’d rather the boys run around counting their own numbers in the next few weeks/months rather be free to inflict more damage on this country.
Good result.
New Treasurer?
Sabra Lane points out that 39 votes in a spill motion effectively means they want ANYONE except for the incumbent! 🙂
The moment the anti-Abbott faction manage to unite behind an alternative to Turnbull, he’s gone.
I hang around more then a few Libs voters in Eden-Monaro and its very hard to find an Abbott/Government supporter anymore. In fact more then a few are stating already that they will vote Labor next election.
Eden-Monaro will be a Labor win next election. To many pissed off public servants to start with for any hope of a revival.
Quick hint. Put Steve Whan up to run and its a shoe in
Cormann will no doubt come out and say that “this is a huge vote of confidence in the prime minister”. Cue the laugh track.
Uhlman and Cassidy speculating cancellation of presser indicates a resignation could be happening
Puffy
all I know is that Civics is part of the Victorian curriculum and has been for yonks. (Year 7, compulsory).
Rabbot not having an open Press Conference.
One camera and a statement.
Those boneheads on the ABC think Abbott may resign.
Are they stupid. The PM role is his precious.
Poor Kroeger
Speers saying Abbott visibly shocked when the result was announced.
[Uhlman and Cassidy speculating cancellation of presser indicates a resignation could be happening]
Surely they mean a minister tendering his resignation.
Hockey?
If so was he pushed or has he moved to Turnbull?
Can Turnbull remain a minister?
They are backing down on that now. Meanwhile Parliament is due to start the bells are ringing who is running this great nation. Coalition are reaping what the sow, oppose and wreck but no building. I want NDIS and Gonski etc discussed not this crap
Tom,
Does he want to?
He’s made a big play of not doing anything so far.
He can resign, say that after the leadership vote he no longer thinks Abbott should lead, and that he doesn’t feel it is appropriate for him to remain in Cabinet with such feelings.
This result reminds me of that quote attributed to Henry Kissenger about the Middle East –
“Its a pity they both sides can’t lose”
Today thats what happened to the abbott and anti abbott camps.
Labor – don’t interrupt them while they are at each others throats 🙂
[The PM role is his precious.]
Yes indeed. And Abbott makes a terrific Gollum.
ruawake@224
Best wishes ru!
You are having a tough time and displaying great courage.
I have quoted this before and it applies to you.
“Life is mostly froth and bubble;
two things stand like stone –
kindness in another’s trouble,
courage in our own.”
Adam Lindsay Gordon
leader of opposition!
Uhlman singing Gillard praises
Abbott has asked a Channel 9 camera to go to his office and he is recording a statement.
What a gutless bahstard.
Abbott not fronting the media – gutless and weak as usual
exactly Puff – makes me damn cross