The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)
The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.
[The poll has Labor’s lead at just 51-49, with primary votes yet to be provided.]
I thought I saw an earlier tweet with primary votes?
Time to factor in a large bias to LNP for Ipsos, I think.
The last Galaxy & ReachTEL Fed Polls in early February had different Lib leader TPPs. ReachTEL a wild Turnbull 54-46 to the L/NP, Galaxy a more believable 49-51 for the L/NP. This poll matches that last Galaxy. Its possible this IPSOS poll is a Turnbull influened one, but its too early to say.
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-5february2015
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/45-february-2015/
If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred with Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal party leader
Coalition 42% (same as this new IPSOS poll)
Labor Party 38%
The Greens 10%
Palmer United Party 3%
Other 7%
Coalition 49%
Labor Party 51%
As I said earlier, I think the absolute nub of this latest poll, in political terms, will be Abbott’s personal ratings. That will make everything far clearer.
If he’s also had a big surge in his PPM rating, satisfied/dissatisfied, then something weird is up.
The graphic is labelled “TWO PARTY PREFERRED By overall preference flow in 2013” so I think that answers the question as to whether it is respondent-allocated or previous-election
Actually that was Reachtel. Sorry.
There you go: Abbotts personal ratings still bad, but up some.
My guess is this is an actual correction from the frankly unbelievable punishment the LNP has been getting from the electorate (with 57s and other unrealistic numbers) as the pressure of the spill motion came to a head.
Some Tories are now accepting theyve got Abbott – and moving on from the sick feeling that creates – other Tories are coming back onboard as they expect Abbott to go.
Other swing voters may be looking at the ALP in the wake of their massive Abbott-hating binge since the budget and wondering if theyre ready for the government they look increasingly likely to get, if nothing changes.
Id say all the above – and it highlights the need for some strategic ALP policy releases. Nothing major, but Abbott-hatred isnt going to be enough folks.
I reckon the NBN is a great one to get back out in the public mind. The Tories have an absolute dog of a policy there and everyone knows it too. Remind punters where the ALP stands on the key issue in 21c infrastructure.
Aside from that, steady as she goes, be more mature, less wingnutty than Abbott. None of thats hard at all.
No stress – things will swing back soon enough if Abbott isnt given the boot. It wont be 57s anymore, but up around 53 for sure.
Not on the Fairfax site yet, but Ghost has the primary votes.
https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/571932711478161408
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (+4) ALP 36 (-4) GRN 12 (+1) PUP 2 (-1) #auspol
6:19 PM – 1 Mar 2015]
Opposes put spring in Tony’s NZ appearances this weekend..
From Leroy..
“its possible this IPSOS poll is a Turnbull influened one, but its way too early to say.”
Is it possible that when respondents are polled & asked which party they would vote for if election held today would vote Lib because they think MT is PM.. silly idea!
More likely they don’t know who / what alternative is
Is there any rational explanation to this other than ALP voter saying LNP to keep tones there…
Pollsters are going to start using lie detectors the way this is going.
Opposes = Ipsos need to read before hitting (spellcheck) return
bug1 – In my opinion, almost no one who doesn’t already post comments on this blog could be f***ed with trying to game an opinion poll by claiming they would vote for the party they hate.
[There was often a shift to Labor when Gillard was approaching the brink. I’m not sure why it happens but it seems to happen more often than by pure chance.
My guess is that it’s a regression to the mean phenomenon where a a few really crappy outlier polls get leadership speculation but statistically it’s unlikely that they are repeated.]
I think things like this helped gillard survive 9 – 12 months longer than she should have for ‘the good of labor’. Lets hope a similar thing is happening with Tony.
Am I correct , the shift of voting intent from Ipsos means a full 10% of previous Labor ( 2pp) voters have changed their mind since last poll?
Another op-ed on the poll out early
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pm-tony-abbotts-positive-poll-shows-hes-a-dead-man-walking-20150301-13s2t0.html
[PM Tony Abbott’s ‘positive’ poll shows he’s a dead man walking
March 1, 2015 – 7:14PM
Peter Hartcher
Tony Abbott’s supporters will claim today’s poll as proof that there is life in his prime ministership yet.
Only a superficial reading can support this conclusion. In truth, it shows that it is already dead.
The surface reading of the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll is that the key trends are all moving in Abbott’s favour.
The Coalition’s vote is up and Labor’s is down. Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up and Bill Shorten’s is down.
Therefore, the Abbott advocates will argue, the voters are giving Abbott another chance and so should the Liberal Party caucus.
The reason, they’ll say, is that Australians like a fighter, and Abbott has proved to be a tough one.
But look a little further. Seventy-two per cent of voters say that Abbott does not have the confidence of his own party.
In other words, the people believe that Abbott lacks the basic qualification to remain leader.
“They have read the writing on the wall for Mr Abbott,” says the Fairfax pollster, Ipsos’ Jess Elgood.]
Leroy,
People seem to have already adjusted to life after Abbott and this current poll shows the real state of play between Labor and Liberal without the “Abbott filter of perpetual darkenss”.
Leroy Lynch, fair enough. but its its hard any political explanation to justify it dropping from 57 (by the big three) to 51 in a few weeks.
Too much navel gazing and counting devils on the head of a pin methinks.
GG: it only shows part of that “real state of play”.
Once Abbott is replaced, we will see the real “real state of play” post Abbott.
You might not like it!
:devil:
LL
And even then I seriously doubt they could actually go through with it.
Peter may have gone off Tony, but Andrew hasn’t
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/ipsos_poll_stunning_abbott_recovery_to_just_49_to_51_against/
[IPSOS poll – stunning Abbott recovery to just 49 to 51 against
Andrew Bolt
March 01 2015 (7:13pm)
Wow. Despite everything they’ve tried to throw at Abbott – false claims about “unilateral invasions”, heckling at media conferences, wall-to-wall ABC and Fairfax attacks, open campaigning for Malcolm Turnbull and constant peddling of false claims of an imminent challenge, the media has not destroyed Tony Abbott.
In fact, they have failed to stop an astonishing recovery, if the latest IPSOS poll can be believed. The Sydney Morning Herald grudgingly admits:
…………. quote from Kenny, then..
Incredible. How far would the Liberals be ahead if Malcolm Turnbull were loyal?
The reporter here is Mark Kenny, the man so biased that on the weekend he claimed that one single anti-Abbott businessman represented the entire business sector of Australia.
So imagine how hard Kenny tried to find negatives in a poll that, on the face of it, is a stunning tribute to Tony Abbott’s resilience and an even more stunning rebuke to the media pack trying to destroy him:
……………….. quote from Kenny, then..
The public could be onto the media jihad against Abbott and may now be siding against the media loud mouths and bullies, just as they did when the media tried to ram a republic down their throats.
Can you imagine how much in front Abboitt would be had some of his MPs fought for him rather than against? Liberal supporters should let them know that they will remember who tried most to destroy Abbott, and who fought hardest for the Government.
I still think Abbott has a huge struggle against him. I suspect the poll exaggerates his undoubted recovery. But those conservatives who claim he cannot change should at least acknowledge that he has, and give him time to see if this recovery can be maintained.
And do not put up with the media witchhunt. Voters choose this country’s prime ministers, not journalists.
UPDATE
Sky News, increasingly losing its precious even-handedness, also beat up every negative in the poll in its news reports, missing the big picture of a huge recovery against all the massive odds.
To repeat, had the media been remotely fair and the Liberal traitors less feral, can you imagine how well Abbott would be doing now? And what pressure Bill Shorten would be under?
Demand the media call off the jihad. Call them, write, agitate. Fight back against the media putsch. ]
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 10m 10 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Preferred LIB Leader (L/NP Voters): Abbott 38 (-3) Turnbull 30 (+6) Bishop 21 (+2) #auspol]
A majority of Lib voters want Turnbull or Bishop then (51%)
If the question was “Abbott or someone else” it would have been an even larger majority (11% still unaccounted for).
When the majority of your own supporters want someone else, and the majority of your caucus want someone else, its likely someone else is going to take over…….just saying.
It is reasonable to expect a bit of bounce back to LNP from there nationalistic direction since the leadership drama.
– Foreign property buyers
– Crackdowns on foreign food
– Statements to support Bali 2
– Send more troops to the middle east to fight for… something.
But i think other comments might explain it better as a sympathy vote.
Hysteria@19
You may get a short lived spike.
Enjoy it while it lasts. 👿
Leroy Lynch@15
So they are saying in this poll, this is how we would vote with abbott gone ?
Abbott has moved from liability to irrelevance.
I must admit that a 49/51 outcome seems against the run of play. The conservatives have had a dreadful couple of weeks and, in simple terms, it makes no sense they would have improved by this amount.
I wonder if there is a push polling effect. If the voters were asked a whole bunch of question of their preferences between Abbott and Turnball and then finally asked how they would vote – then I suspect that would heavily influence the outcome.
I would presume that a good practice would be to ask the voting question up front and then follow with the qualifying questions.
Even with a well structured set of poll questions, the general commentary in the media might frame responses.
Don’t really know. But I feel that 49/51 is being very kind to Abbott.
[How far would the Liberals be ahead if Malcolm Turnbull were loyal?]
Huh? Bolt is dreaming if he thinks Turnbull has been anything but a loyal team member.
He hasn’t engineered questions in QT from the opposition that encourage public ridicule of Abbott based on some private in joke. He hasn’t been actively backgrounding select journalists by trash talking his leader and winding them up with leadershit nonsense. He doesn’t divulge Cabinet discussions in order to frame himself in a positive light and Abbott in a negative one.
Honestly. Whinge much!
Mod Lib,
I have said previously that the real state of play between Labor/Liberal will only be revealed once Abbott is removed.
Shorten, to his credit, is not kidding himself that the polls of 2014 reflect the impending result for 2016. He’s already stated clearly that Labor needs to convince close to million people to change their vote from the last election and this is no small task.
The real question atm is whether the Libs can overcome their guilt complex and remove a serving PM.
So your asinine jibes really only demonstrate you are not actually reading what others write and you have nothing of substance to offer the debate apart from your well established childishness.
It would be ironic if Abbott was saved by polls that reflected the assumption that he was gone.
I think this poll will do more damage to the Libs than if it had of been Lab 58 Lib 42.
Abbott will believe his own bull dust and become more rabid.
[When the majority of your own supporters want someone else, and the majority of your caucus want someone else, its likely someone else is going to take over…….just saying.]
Yes, Abbott’s leadership is terminal, but even though I still believe it’s only a matter of time before the partyroom takes action to resolve this issue, even I’m having difficulty seeing the Liberals actually grabbing the bull by the horns and dealing with it.
Maybe once the NSW election is done and dusted.
As a NSW type person, YES!!!!! 4 more weeks, that’s all we want of Abbott.
Perhaps part of Abbott’s reset this week is to (sadly) have Credlin walk the plank. This will take off the Murdoch goons for a while.
[Leroy Lynch
Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 8:32 pm | Permalink
Peter may have gone off Tony, but Andrew hasn’t
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/ipsos_poll_stunning_abbott_recovery_to_just_49_to_51_against/
IPSOS poll – stunning Abbott recovery to just 49 to 51 against
Andrew Bolt
March 01 2015 (7:13pm)
Wow. Despite everything they’ve tried to throw at Abbott – false claims about “unilateral invasions”, heckling at media conferences, wall-to-wall ABC and Fairfax attacks, open campaigning for Malcolm Turnbull and constant peddling of false claims of an imminent challenge, the media has not destroyed Tony Abbott.
]
No one is trying to destroy Tony Abbott, but Tony Abbott.
This is the one of the few areas of consistency and competence he has demonstrated throughout his PMship.
Perhaps a new alternative is emerging.
https://twitter.com/melaugh71/status/571965210992328704/photo/1
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 1h 1 hour ago
Welcome news for the PM for sure. Will be interesting to see if they now give him some breathing space. Should but probably won’t.]
Classic whiteant behaviour: when your opponent starts getting clear air, amp up with the undermining.
It does smell very much like a Turnbull Liberal v Shorten Labor result (at least in part). Abbott has degenerated into a laughing stock so the idea that these swings are people saying we want Tone is a bit hard to swallow.
Could they please postpone any poll bounce until Abbott is replaced 🙁
davidwh
It does offer a tantalizing prospect that Turnbull gets the job but no real bounce because it had already been factored in. How long then til the right start playing up because the miracle they were promised didn’t arrive.
davidwh 39
“Could they please postpone any poll bounce until Abbott is replaced. ”
I agree with the Libs themselves not knowing who will lead them:
Next week
Next Month or what ever.
How can the people judge what’s going on.
This is the best outcome we could have hoped for… the fibs will now hang on to the piece of dead meat for longer and completely thrash their brand …
I should point out that my prediction last night that this poll would come in at 51-49 was based on what appears to be around a 2% 2pp leaning of this particular polster to the Coalition.
As others have mentioned, I strongly suspect the move back to the Liberals is down to two things; 1-that results like 57-43 were never going to hold anyway, and 2-that the feeling in the electorate is that whether it be this week or very soon is that Abbott will be gone, and therefore they are already thinking of life after Abbott. I recall that in February 2012, when there was a chance of Rudd returning to the Labor leadership, there was a sharp move back to Labor. This happened on other occasions when the leadership issue came up, until eventually I think people gave up believing it would happen. If the Liberals keep Abbott for an extended period, I think we will see once again a deteriation in the polls, but unlike now, they will not turn around until Abbott is actually gone.
How come Ipsos gets it’s own thread, I thought it was the new kid on the block.
Mike, because William doesn’t like Morgan
About the latest polls.
Give them enough rope.
outside left
Touche!
This poll is confirmation of the movement evident in the other recent polls. It’s possible this movement reflects any number of influences, but for mine I am guessing they are
– a recoil from the initial stunned response to the Australia Day knighthood folly
– relief that yet another PM was not rolled, on the principle that “stability and order” are the default preferences of the electorate
– a reflection of unexpected improvements in household finances following the steep decline in fuel prices and the cut in interest rates
– a possible affirmation in the electorate of Abbott’s pitch to Indonesia, in which he linked clemency for the Bali 2 with our historical support for Indonesia in their times of trouble
– confirmation the electorate really hardly notices the political theatre known as Senate Estimates.
No paywall
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/malcolm_turnbull_increases_trust_ZjZhS0qM4x5AbKhY9517aK
[Malcolm Turnbull increases the gap on Tony Abbott as preferred PM, leads on competency, trust
PUBLISHED: 0 hour 29 MINUTE AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 0 MINUTE AGO
Phillip Coorey
Malcolm Turnbull has increased his lead over Tony Abbott as the preferred Liberal leader and he outstrips the Prime Minister in every key attribute ranging from competency and trust to economic policy.
The latest Fairfax/Ipsos monthly poll also shows Mr Turnbull has closed the gap on Mr Abbott as the preferred leader among Coalition voters but Mr Abbott still holds a clear lead, his greatest internal argument against any push to depose him.]
http://www.afr.com/data/polling.aspx?type=twopp&dimensions=wide
[Interactive | Explore the Fairfax Ipsos poll]
http://www.afr.com/data/politics.aspx#swing/labor-9.5/states/?parliament=44
[Simulator | Electorate swing calculator]
[- relief that yet another PM was not rolled, on the principle that “stability and order” are the default preferences of the electorate]
I’m not sure about that one. Abbott is now an open object of ridicule, and I suspect there’d be a huge sigh of relief if he were replaced, stability and order and default preferences be damned.