The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)
The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.
Totally counter intuitive is all I can say.
Every poll that has shown a better 2PP vote for the LNP has shown worse to dismal polling on Tony Abbott himself, and his attributes, in terms of honesty, competence etc.
Seems odd they would say they would vote for the party regardless.
Could it be that the over 65s are coming back, believing Tony and all the perks for the ageing home owners are here to stay?
48) Or the polls have considered it as a non Tony Abbott being replaced.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/prime_minister_tony_abbott_claws_ZvtoyQYWlEXCNzPPzuDfYK
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott claws back in Fairfax opinion poll
PUBLISHED: 0 hour 57 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 29 MINUTES AGO
Phillip Coorey AFR correspondent
The Coalition has surged back to be within striking distance of Labor and Tony Abbott’s own stocks have improved, in a new poll that should give the Prime Minister some respite from the speculation surrounding his leadership.
The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows the Coalition trailing Labor by just 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. It is the best position for the government since October and represents a 6 percentage point gain from a month ago when it lagged Labor by 54-46.
Regardless, Mr Abbott will keep his foot on the pedal this week as he seeks to re-engage voters and ward off any plans for mutiny. He will announce a deployment of more troops to Iraq, release the intergenerational report on the budget and finally dump policy measures which have been sapping both his and the government’s strength.
He will kill off lingering plans for a Medicare co-payment and senior sources said another contentious policy – possibly plans to make the young unemployed wait six months before receiving the dole – will also be scrapped. The government has also indicated it is prepared to abandon the fight to water down the Renewable Energy Target.]
Is there any chance that voters who won`t vote for the Coalition are saying they will to keep Abbott in, for a greater chance at Coalition defeat?
I work with a lot of staunch Libs and every one would be happy to see the back of Abbott. In fact I can’t think of anyone else who thinks Abbott is anything but a failure as PM.
[Tom the first and best
….Is there any chance that voters who won`t vote for the Coalition are saying they will to keep Abbott in, for a greater chance at Coalition defeat?]
Yes
Another thing about this poll is that Labor can take nothing for granted, I hope they are using this time (apart from campaigning in NSW).
from previous Thread.
Remember it is still 18 months to the next election, unless your name is John Hewson there is no need for Labor to lay out policies now.
At this stage in the cycle the government should be governing and the opposition critiquing them. It is not the ALP’s fault the Libs simply cannot govern.
They should be talking about values and principles (e.g. fairness), but they have plenty of time for that and given everything that is going on, who would listen to them.
Also they do have plenty of policies:
Carbon pricing.
NBN
Gonski
NDIS
Medicare
[50
confessions
– relief that yet another PM was not rolled, on the principle that “stability and order” are the default preferences of the electorate
I’m not sure about that one.]
I’m not sure about it either. But it’s possible the electorate have bought the message that Abbott will be given some time to improve his performance.
It’s also possible they agree with Abbott – they would prefer to do their own number on him rather than allow the “faceless” drones of the party-room to lop him down.
We should soon see. If Abbott stays and their polling recedes again, then he will inevitably be dumped. If he stays and their polling firms up, then he will be safe for a while at least.
More evidence that Australians will not dump a first-term government, certainly at federal level.
Queenslanders probably reckon they’vr sent a message to Canberra by dumping Newman. Only in SA, and probably Victoria, do voters still have the axe out for Abbott.
[53
Tom the first and best
Is there any chance that voters who won`t vote for the Coalition are saying they will to keep Abbott in, for a greater chance at Coalition defeat?]
No
I was expecting the Ipsos poll to be good for the coalition. There will be no leadership spill this week.
Swing Required@2
I have an average lean of 1.4 points after 4 polls but that is provisional until we see what else comes out this week. The first three averaged about a point.
I am now applying a 1 point correction.
I would spend less time on rumour analysis and more time on policy analysis. The chief task of political journalism is to provide context and analysis of public policy. Party turmoil deserves some coverage but the amount of coverage now is grossly disproportionate to the quality of the information.
[How come Ipsos gets it’s own thread, I thought it was the new kid on the block.]
It’s one of the biggest names in international market research, and has been for 20 years.
davidwh
Abbott ilicits ridicule whenever he is mentioned in my circles. The improvement in support for the govt since the failed spill is curious to say the least
One thing is for sure. The political fortunes of the government rest solely in the performance of Abbott and the reaction of his colleagues. Shorten doesn’t have his hands on any of the levers.
And that’s a problem.
can beating the xenophobic drum really improve results that much? I despair on one hand, but am also happy for anything that keeps abbott glued to the PMs chair. Given his only hope for survival is to NOT carry out the IPA agenda he can less damage than he’d like to, and I cannot believe he will actually win an election. The real worry is the time he buys himself will be used by the far right to get Morrison or similar into the chair and he wins the election thumping the xenophobic and anti-welfare drums (& it is clear they plan to combine the two into a tom-tom – expect a lot of murdoch stories about migrants, muslims, refugees and aboriginals on welfare). On the bright side, Turnbull has the scent of PM in his nostrils and will white-ant abbott and any leader who is not him. how a dumped abbott behaves is anybody’s guess, but I can’t imagine it’ll be calmly or rationally unless they work out a face-saving deal that keeps the hard right firmly in control (which means Morison I guess?) – I still think they’ll send Howard to tap him on the shoulder, dream up a family health scare he needs to step aside for ‘having done everything I set out to do – axe the taxes, stop the boats, and start building the roads of the 21st century’, and give him a big payout – Murdoch and Gina will have ‘jobs’ for him. they’ll convonce him that going out This will not resolve the Turnbull-Right clash, but it might stop abbott doing a rudd.
anyhow – no challenge this week? tunrbull’s camp’s white-anting and leaking to go up a notch? Morrison to decide he’s a chance and to also start jostling? Bishop to continue to try to build cred as the ‘non-Turnbull’ candidate? abbott to claim this poll shows he will win, much to the the amusement of all? all fun and games – may they enjoy a slow and gangrenous demise.
As I see it there are possibly two factors at work here.
1. A significant bias towards the Liberals. It would be interesting to know what adjustment, if any, William gives to Ipsos for Bludgertrack.
2. The news over the last few days has been dominated by claims that Turnbull now has the numbers to defeat Abbott, perhaps as early as this coming week. A lot of people may be assuming that a Turnbull led government is now a formality and have responded accordingly.
I think this is proof that about 3% of the electorate read Bolt and listen to right wing shock jocks.
They switched horses after the spill; it was no longer Abbott has failed to deliver death and destruction to; we must give him more time.
[ This is the best outcome we could have hoped for… the fibs will now hang on to the piece of dead meat for longer and completely thrash their brand … ]
Dont disagree, but more importantly we are in the lead up to the 2015 budget. The Libs see polls like this and its likely to reinforce and impression that their policy direction is correct and they just need to sell it better. 🙂 Makes it more likely they will FWARK the 2015 budget completely.
If they are really dropping the medicare co-payment, price signal, value signal..whatever..then how are they going to fill that hole on the revenue side?? Interesting times. 🙂
[It would be interesting to know what adjustment, if any, William gives to Ipsos for Bludgertrack.]
1.2% as of the previous poll – which happens to be what I apply to Morgan going the other way. Like Kevin Bonham though, I recalculate with each new result.
I know a conservative South Aussie who usually but not always votes Liberal. He’s scornful of Abbott, doesn’t like Shorten, is doubtful about Turnbull but very positive about Bishop.
Just smells wrong…
May be a bit of an over-correction but the trend’s there.
I am curious William on the justification to adjust polls. They all use random samples I assume; they are all justified by the same mathamatics I assume.
Bill needs to do something relating to policy differentiation. There us no policy leadership in the ALP and I am sick and dismayed at ALP repeating Abbott’s lines to him. Abbott is disgusting so what does that make someone whose only intellectual ability is to mimic him in opposition. If Turnbull becomes Liberal leader and does some good things then it will be hard not to give him my second preference ahead of ALP unless they start doing something.
[ Could it be that the over 65s are coming back, believing Tony and all the perks for the ageing home owners are here to stay? ]
Interesting take on it. There has been MUCH talk lately of changes to Superannuation treatment by LOTS of people. Some who think they will be negatively impacted could be believing Tony when he says “no changes to superannuation”. Did he write that one down??
Tom the first and best 54
“Is there any chance that voters who won`t vote for the Coalition are saying they will to keep Abbott in, for a greater chance at Coalition defeat?”
The answer is yes, the question is how many.
For briefly 60 to say no chance is stupid unless he/she knows all those polled personally.
I think there are many reasons for the polls to start to lean toward the Coalition but none of them good for the Libs.
WB@64, i wonder even they are happy with what they have put out so far.
During the Vic election their values for GRN where so out of whack they had to change the way the methodology (i believe), now this clanger. But i guess different societies behave differently, so maybe they just need some time to adjust to the terrain.
In theory they have random samples. In practice, they get random samples out of a non-random pool of potential respondents who are capable of being reached by the particular method they use. For this and other reasons, every pollster has a house bias. If there is very strong reason to believe that house bias is around 1.2% from one pollster and 1.2% the other way for another, it makes sense to correct for them.
Could it be that some labor voters prefer Tony as leader of the LNP?
Will be interesting to see how Labor respond to the govt this week in light of improved support for the govt and the personal ratings of Abbott
Night all
IcanCU
[ it will be hard not to give him my second preference ahead of ALP unless they start doing something. ]
ALP have no need to put out ANYTHING until after the Budget. They will wait for the Libs to show their hand and commit to a policy direction first. Plenty of time over the rest of 2015 for ALP policy to come out.
[More evidence that Australians will not dump a first-term government, certainly at federal level.]
LOL. Dead theory walking!
“The phone-based poll was taken from February 26 to 28”
Does IPSOS “phone-based” polling translate to
– landline,
– mobile,
– SMS,
– all of the above
– other ?
I tend to think SMS are more likely to favor the desperate side, as they will be more likely to respond.
Thanks William – I dare say that respondent allocated preferences will kick it even further.
I think some on this board have read too much into this poll. If the Liberals are working behind the scenes to roll Abbott, surely they must be seeing something the public has not seen in terms of internal polling. I wouldn’t take this poll as Gospel, if the Liberals are scrambling and leaking behind the scenes then there must be internal polling that is driving this.
One poll that has been counter to what the political commentators have been saying about Abbott’s toxic brand is very suspect.
“Evidence that Australians will not dump a first-term government”.
As opposed to every other week of the last year.
[“In fact I can’t think of anyone else who thinks Abbott is anything but a failure as PM.”]
How is he a failure? Explain?
You mean he’s not popular… like a pop star, or an Australian Idol contestant… or a contestant on Big Brother perhaps?
The thing is Dave, this isn’t a beauty contest… this is actually about running the country. The only bits he has has been failing at is to get Labors $300B of debt under control by getting cuts through the senate, a large portion of which Labor themselves flagged BEFORE the election.
Labors plan is to sent our budget deficits soaring and bankrupt the government… stuff the country though, it’s all about getting ahead in the polls, afterall after 400 promises to post a budget surplus they still failed so now they can’t let anyone else succeed.
Labor have made a huge mistake not expressing policy & principal while the Liberals have been talking leadership, a low profile approach is one thing no profile is another.
When & if the Libs go with MT it will be too late, head to head Turnbull will appear more rational & expressive than Bill.
If as William says he applies a house affect on Ipsos it doesn’t chage their picking up a 10% shift in Labor supporters base since previous poll.
If MT is picked the shift will only increase.
Why should the Labor party say anything, the Libs main opposition is the Liberal Party.
Meanwhile the Labor Party fine tunes their policies so that they can be an effective alternative Government.
“You mean he’s not popular… like a pop star, or an Australian Idol contestant… or a contestant on Big Brother perhaps?” – TrueBlueAussie
Bad analogy, democracy actually is a popularity contest.
[You mean he’s not popular… like a pop star, or an Australian Idol contestant… or a contestant on Big Brother perhaps?]
Or Masterchef. I like Masterchef.
David 87
Mostly agree with this. There certainly has been a move back to the Coalition, but that was to be expected as the polls were not going to stay at 57-43. I suspect this particular poll overstates it by around 2 percent, but I guess we will need to see more polls to confirm whether or not this is the case.
I think this idea that people are attempting to use polls to keep Abbott as Prime Minister is pretty near fanciful. If anyone at all is doing this, the amount would be negligible. As I have already said, I think the most likely answer is that some voters are already factoring in the dumping of Abbott and responding accordingly. The polling for this particular poll commenced on Thursday night, the exact night that Seven news reported that Turnbull now had the numbers to defeat Abbott. I think things are so volatile right now that we probably need to take these movements in the polls with a grain of salt until things settle down one way or the other.
On another note, I don’t buy the argument that Australians will not throw out a first term federal government. Yes, history says this is the case, but recent history says that the electorate reduced a first term government to a minority, so that’s pretty close! We have a more volatile electorate in this country than we historically have, with a reducing number of voters rusted on to either one of the two major parties.
might be a lot easier (and shorter at this time of night) to list his successes
TBA
The trouble with your argument is that Abbott himself has admitted his flaws and claimed that “Good government” started a few weeks ago.
….rather deflates your post don’t it?
Sceptic, i think one of the reasons Abbott is in so much trouble is that he is a fighter and now he is at the top there is nobody left to fight. As much as i hate the phrase, i think “small target” it is the perfect tactic to use against him.
If we put policies out there earlier than usual, they could be a very successful oppositionist government.
TBA
So he can’t get legislation through a Senate which was regarded (before it sat) as being Liberal friendly.
He can’t get people like Xenophon, Ricky Muir, the Liberal Democrat, and Clive’s mob – all from his side of politics – on side.
Makes Gillard’s ability to cobble together a workable Lower House and get over 400 pieces of legislation through it look pretty good. And she needed people who were NOT from her side of politics to do it.
94
also Howard lost the 2PP vote after his first term
The problem, TBA, is that many Australians:
a. dont accept our debt is a huge problem, since its far lower than other OECD countries, or
b. understand that goernments are nothing like households, since they can borrow money atmuch lower rates
c. understand that debt which is invested in infrastructure is a net boon to the economy if it returns more than the debt costs to service
d. and here’s the big one: think debt might be a problem but can completely see through the LIbs shabby strategy of making the less well-off shoulder the burden disproportinately
Add all those up and thatsw hy the budget was a massive stinker with the public. Conservative commentators are delusional if they think the public are just being ‘selfish’. They know this mob are selling them a pup.