The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)
The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.
i think abbott gets some votes for surviving … i also think this poll is odd …. danger is oz public will descend back into great cynical sleep, that nothing can change. some will learn to tolerate the catastrophe served up …. Shorten in paper thin as well, he is UNCOMFORTABLE in front of a camera and in public. He is not fluent and speaks in sound bites not much more adept than abbot. He is a self appointed bland time waster who wins only by default. (well that’s one point of view)
dont accept our debt is a huge problem, since its far lower than other OECD countries, or
—-this is true … liberals have fed public lies about national debt to build their campaign of privatisation and austerity — rich get richer.
87
David
[Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 10:46 pm | PERMALINK
I think some on this board have read too much into this poll. If the Liberals are working behind the scenes to roll Abbott, surely they must be seeing something the public has not seen in terms of internal polling. I wouldn’t take this poll as Gospel, if the Liberals are scrambling and leaking behind the scenes then there must be internal polling that is driving this.
One poll that has been counter to what the political commentators have been saying about Abbott’s toxic brand is very suspect.]
On the day of the spill, Newspoll came in at 57/43. And Abbott’s personal ratings were atrocious. Admittedly that poll was probably rogue. The true figure was probably 55/45. Now three weeks after spill we have 51/49. It is a big turnaround in a very short time.
The poll trend over the past year was not good for Abbott and the coalition. Yet the past three weeks have seen the best improvement yet.
Making cuts is very hard. The press especially fairfax makes out that Abbott is dancing through the fields making cuts and enjoying every moment of it.
Making cuts is hard. Spending like drunken sailors on someone elses credit card is very easy. Labors only plan to ever pay back debt is for a future Lib Government to do it for them.
We all remember the $900-$1000 cheques Rudd was sending out and it lifted him into the Poll stratosphere. It was very easy, just spend taxpayer and let someone else pay it off in the future.
Yet someone making tough decisions and trying to reign in the deficit… we attack them. We make out they do it because they hate us.
As I said before perhaps the Libs should just give up on fixing Labors budget mess and just spend up big, make it someone elses problem in the future. Seems to work great for Labor and then fairfax and other media sites can say what a great hero Abbott is.
One final point from me for now. While I suspect nothing will happen this week, it is interesting to note that the 8 point shift in Newspoll plus shifts in other polls released last week seemed to have done nothing to settle the Liberal party room. My feeling though is that a combination of the better poling plus the fact that they do not appear to be able to decide how to bring about the removal of Abbott, will now lead to nothing happening this week. But, as happened with Labor 2012, once it becomes clear there is no move on Abbott, we will see the polls settle down with Labor still comfortably in front.
Definitely calling it a might now
“The press especially fairfax makes out that Abbott is dancing through the fields making cuts and enjoying every moment of it.”
He gave that job to Hockey.
TBA Abbott’s failure as PM has little to do with making the hard decisions and being punished. Abbott’s main failure is his own personal failure to make the transition from OL to PM. As OL he got away with the slogans and promises but as PM he was required to lead, explain and bring people along with the hard decisions the country must take.
Ordinary people get slammed here often but one thing they are pretty savvy with is spotting a fraud. They have and the polls reflect that.
funnily enough then, the libs are already spending every bit as much as Rudd Labor did during the stimulus. Every. Single. Year.
[ Ordinary people get slammed here often but one thing they are pretty savvy with is spotting a fraud. They have and the polls reflect that. ]
Well said david.
We have a revenue problem because of Howard’s irresponsible tax cuts – including the last tranche with Rudd (unwisely) kept – and the relative collapse of mining returns.
QLDers didnt buy the shoddy BS Newman was shovelling about debt (FFS he wasnt even including the lost income from selling government owned assets!), and they arent buying it from Hockey either.
This is what happens when you have a weak case, sell it badly, and then prosecute it it unfairly. The govt deserves all the shitty polling its got. The question is whether they can learn from all their screwups.
Yet someone making tough decisions and trying to reign in the deficit… we attack them. We make out they do it because they hate us.
I think you mean ‘rein in the debt’.
Be that as it may, even if we had a debt problem, why call on those least able to do so to pay it back? Why not cut aid to private schools, wind back the private health insurance rebate, wind back super tax concessions that cost more than giving everyone over 65 the pension, stop subsidising property speculation via negative gearing and treating capital gains like other incom for tax purposes. And why subsidise FBT rorts like novated leases?
Voters have been promised a spill on Tuesday …they’ve also been assured by just about every political commentator that Turnbull will become PM and bring some sanity back to this crazy Govt..
See the Polls turn viciously against Abbott & Co when they realize Old Media has had a premature ejaculation ..and the spill motion isn’t even put..
The thing for Labor for these polls is that is not going to be an election next week. In a world of hypotheticals, this is as hypothetical as it gets.
We can see from a number of elections lately that strange things happen to polling over the course of an election period.
At best, these polls tell all the parties how they are travelling to some extent – but not why. It is hard to interpret what these polls mean for the Liberals at the moment. We know they are not travelling well in the public perception – but more than the polls, even large numbers Liberal supporters have the greatest of doubts about Abbott’s fitness for office.
Labor has to recognise that there is very little likelihood of an election before late 2016. So as long as they are not in the toilet (at this part of the election cycle) they simply need to hold to the strategy – which I suspect is to kick off an 18 month period of policy engagement with the public beginning with the budget reply.
Ok definitely the last one from me tonight:
Just had a look back at the February 2012 poling. The night before Rudd’s challenge was to be voted on, (keep in mind Rudd had put himself forward, where as in the case of the Liberal spill motion there was no candidate) Labor got their best Newspoll result in almost a year. I think it is reasonable to suggest, given that Gillard’s personal ratings plunged in the same poll, that the bounce was due to a view in the electorate that Rudd was set to return. Well of course the vote was a resounding 71-31 victory for Gillard, and the belief at the time was that this finished Rudd. Within a month, the polls had settled and Labor were back in a similar position, with Newspoll sitting at 57-43.
So I feel we aren’t in uncharted territory here. I think there is a pretty widely held view in the electorate that Turnbull is coming. As I said this poll took the field on the very night that Seven and the ABC ran stories suggesting Turnbull now had the numbers. I fully expect that if the Liberals do not move on Abbott in the next couple of weeks, Labor’s lead in the polls will widen again as people start to fell that Abbott is not going anywhere.
On days like this, it seems almost everyone on here is a Concern troll! Virtually the whole country regards Abbott as a joke and a dead man walking; there are reports in the news of how the party is almost openly planning to get rid of him. And supposedly this one poll changes that??
The fact that PVO and Bolt are quoting Ipsos to support Abbott should illustrate just how desperate things are. News normally wouldn’t come within a mile of publicising a Fairfax poll.
Adam Carr’s stated again his obsessive hatred of using proportional representation in Australian lower houses.
Proportional representation is used today by most parliamentary democracies without too many issues. Sure, it allows small parties a voice in parliament, but unless you have a really strange kingmaker situation they remain small in influence.
Peter Piper,
It’s not just Ipsos, but also the significant narrowing of Newspoll.
I kind of know what you mean, but at the same time I have a nagging worry that there is some dynamic out there that we don’t really understand.
Recent Australian history has been extraordinary as we all know too well. Leaving partisan politics aside, the turnover of state and federal leaders is almost unprecedented in comparable Western democracies (I’m thinking Britain, New Zealand, Canada, rather than Italy etc).
Perhaps the dislike of Abbott has somehow been overwhelmed in the past week or two by a revulsion of the return to the endless leadership talk that characterised the R-G-R period? I think nobody really knows at this point.
Feeling a little depressed about the latest polls, remember,
Life is butter melon cauliflower.
warrenpeace
life is a pod of peas
or else an unending wide yellow emblazoned field
[89
TrueBlueAussie
The only bits he has has been failing at is to get Labors $300B of debt under control]
Net debt was less than $200 bill when Labor lost office, or around 12% of GDP. The debt rose $48 billion in the first year of Tory rule, or about 3% of GDP. It’s rising at an even faster rate in the current financial year. New debt will climb by at least $55 bill and may easily surpass $70 billion in 2014/15.
The fact is the LNP are losing control of public finance. Revenue is stagnating but outlays are climbing. Revenue increased by around 3.6% in 2013/14 while spending rose by more 8%. That is, when adjusted for population growth and inflation, revenues fell in relative terms but spending increased. The LNP are doing what they always do – increase spending and when they get desperate, increase the deficit. They are financially reckless and politically bankrupt.
briefly
thank you. some late night cheer
[104
TrueBlueAussie
Making cuts is hard. Spending like drunken sailors on someone elses credit card is very easy.]
The LNP are running up the national debt at a furious pace. At the current rate, net debt will double in this term of LNP rule. Labor ran very targeted budgets and, when Gillard was PM, attempted reform of some of the more egregious waste initiated by Howard and Costello. Even with slack revenue growth, Labor still managed to develop social policy.
By contrast, the LNP will spend, spend, spend and accomplish nothing.
[104
TrueBlueAussie
We all remember the $900-$1000 cheques Rudd was sending out…]
Yes, Rudd’s stimulus paid for itself. Had there been no stimulus, the collapse in fiscal revenue would have been even greater and far more prolonged than actually occurred. For every dollar they spent, they got at least the same back in revenues protected. Rudd’s stimulus was a textbook example of counter-cyclical spending that saved hundreds of thousands of jobs, tens of thousands of businesses and billions in revenues for years to follow.
briefly
the liberals are dumb narrowminded and/or ignorant to disparage Rudd’s spending and not factor in the GFC into debt – with lost revenues etc the GFC accounts for most of debt. debt is manageable but not by liberals who just want to avoid paying tax and want to own public assets
[63
Nicholas]
Yeah…’cept policy is hardly ever “news”. While political theatre may have very little substance, it can be produced as a genre of spectacle or soap. It’s easily reported, effortlessly consumed and almost immediately forgotten.
[125
geoffrey]
The Libs excel at negative politics…blame, envy, invective, accusations of failure spill from their lips every day. They are the party of pessimism, retreat and futility.
briefly good stuff – i will follow your contributions here
liberals have no philosophy of government … they resent government
Once again this shift in the polls seems to correlate well with the resurgence of Liberal Trolls on Whirlpool. Its a phenomena I’ve noticed before.
Gotta hand it to Abbott to energise the neanderthals in our community.
[128
geoffrey
briefly good stuff – i will follow your contributions here
129
geoffrey
liberals have no philosophy of government … they resent government]
They do profoundly resent it when others hold power. They think the exercise of power is their birthright. For the Liberals – especially the authoritarians among them – power is to be displayed, revered and obeyed.
The idea that upstarts from the labour movement, the academy or the underclass might aspire to power deeply offends them. It conflicts with their intuitive understandings of order, hierarchy, propriety, history, culture and even common sense.
For the authoritarians, anything or any person that might challenge or obstruct their monopoly on power should be destroyed. This underlies the malice we see in Abbott and his other “warriors”. They deeply believe destruction is their right and their duty.
I’m new here, so please don’t chew my head off. But I have to ask this:
Why would anyone try to take over the LNP leadership with the fate of the Bali 2 of 9 still in the balance?
Let Abbott be the one to respond if they do get shot (as unfortunately seems more and more likely). Any prospective LNP leaders must have realized that they’d be better off letting Abbott make a mess of it and then stepping in.
[ Gotta hand it to Abbott to energise the neanderthals in our community. ]
Nutter Truckers are upset again. All are to email their MP”s apparently to keep Tony in place since Malcolm the Nasty Gold in Sacks Man will bring back an ETS…apparently. 🙂 More power to them i reckon. They are still congratulating themselves on how t the last spill motion attempt their email campaign saved Abbotts PM ship. 🙂 Dont you love the widdle cuties??
AJ English
[Tony Abbott’s unambiguous anti-Muslim bigotry exposed]
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/02/tony-abbott-unambiguous-anti-muslim-bigotry-exposed-150224053709399.html
Truss also got a run talking about aircraft locating on AJ Live.
Daily Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1BEAK4C #auspol http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 oㄥO
#Terrorism, #abbott Flag Questions by @jonkudelka © http://bit.ly/1Dq2WGA
Otiose
[Flag Questions by @jonkudelka ]
😆
TBA @104:
Do try to get acquainted with fiscal and/or economic reality before you prate on about the subject.
You could start with an acknowledgement that Howard’s reckless vote-buying drove the Budget into structural deficit by using temporary (mining boom) revenue to “pay for” permanent spending programs and tax cuts, mostly tilted toward the rich per usual Coalition policy.
Or perhaps with a mild nod in the direction of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the worst worldwide economic dip since 1929, which Australia survived largely intact, in significant part due to Labor’s prompt stimulatory efforts and refusal to panic themselves into austerity (and in sharp contrast to other Western economies).
If you’re feeling especially magnanimous, you could always even offer a sociable little handwave at the trifling fact that Australian public spending is bang-on historical averages relative to the size of our economy – but revenue has badly slumped.
And while you’re at it, a basic acceptance that the deficit has blown out (to the tune of ~$15bn p.a.) in the 18 months since The Governemnt Of No Excuses took office would not be out of order. And that their response has been to blame Labor, blame the falling dollar, blame the terms of trade, blame the elderly, the sick, the poor…everything, except take responsibility for their own Budget!
But of course, those facts aren’t good for your IPA-sponsored narrative, so you’ll ignore them. Compared to you, Ebenezer Scrooge was an easy sell!
Peter Piper @116:
It’s not just one poll. It’s about 3-4 of them to date, indicating that far too many Australians are forgetting what Abbott’s already done, what the LNP has supported him in doing (by voting for him twice as Leader) and what they plan to do. In short, that voters collectively have the attention span of a gnat with ADHD and the memory of a brain-damaged goldfish, which plays to the preconceptions learned as a political observer.
Since I was old enough to pay attention, I’ve been told every election that this election is the one that matters, the crossroads, the Big Choice.
2016 will be the first time I believe it. The stakes have never – not even in 2007 – been higher, than to get rid of Abbott, Turnbull, Bishop and all their IPA stooges. If we do not sweep out these worms from our halls of power – comprehensively and in a way that leaves no doubt as to the reasons why! – the infamy of it will haunt not just this generation, but future ones!
Peter Piper @116
Yep,
Normally a poll like this would have some effect on the hairs on the back of my neck, but this one hasn’t at all.
This might well represent the state of play without Abbott (52-48 according to William’s bias factor), which seems about right to me.
We won’t know until the leadership crap is over.
Briefly @121, 123 and 124:
Somehow, I doubt that TBA is interested in facts or economic reality. Neither of them favour Liberal policies, you see.
Otiose @135:
Now, that’s just cruel – to the Addams Family. Say what you will, the Addamses were both a happy family and a functional one, neither of which can be said about the Abbott Government.
It is my opinion that the polls are reflecting a backlash against Bill Shorten , and a minor recovery in Abbott’s popularity, albeit from a very low base. The backlash against Shorten can be identified from the day he made ‘injustice’ comments about David Hicks, as this was picked up by some in the community as why they don’t like Shorten , but it hasn’t been considered by the media , or by anyone on this site. Also many believe that Abbott’s attack on Triggs was bad strategy but Abbott used it to reinforce his position within the conservative base of the Liberal Party, and I think it has worked by reminding people of his government’s success in ‘stopping the boats’ . The poll results will probably stave off a leadership change in the short term, but the NSW election may result in a minority Labor Government or at best for the Baird government, a return with about a 12% swing against it. Tony Abbott will see the writing on the wall and would probably stand down, putting his support behind Scott Morrison which may leave Turnbull out in the cold. Turnbull’s best bet would have been this Thursday but that now appears unlikely.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Laura Tingle explains that voters’ views on Abbott are devastating.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/voter_views_of_tony_abbott_attributes_vE0pCC2UKXjUaupp3CCceO
Peter Hartcher dismisses the latest poll as being Abbott’s saviour. He’s still dead meat he says.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/pm-tony-abbotts-positive-poll-shows-hes-a-dead-man-walking-20150301-13s2t0.html
Mark Kenny writes in the ambivalent style of Michelle Grattan on the poll.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-thrown-lifeline-in-fairfaxipsos-poll-20150301-13ryao.html
Michael Gordon says voters seem to have factored in Abbott’s removal.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/poll-to-firm-resolve-of-mps-wanting-to-give-abbott-more-time-20150301-13s0ox.html
Steve Lewis wonders whether Abbott will survive tomorrow’s party room meeting.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/03/01/party-time-abbott-leadership-spill/
Paul Sheehan sees Morrison as the smoky.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/in-this-game-of-thrones-scott-morrison-is-now-key-20150301-13rwdj.html
Michelle Grattan writes a lot here but doesn’t tell us much.
https://theconversation.com/abbott-gets-poll-help-as-bishop-complicates-leadership-question-38211
The February update of the tracking of Abbott’s wreckage. The list is now up to 422.
http://theaimn.com/tracking-abbotts-wreckagefebruary-update/
Abbott moves from “mad monk” to “loaded dog”.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/bob-ellis-requiem-for-a-loaded-dog,7428
“View from the Street” looks at the poll and the NSW election.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-is-tony-abbott-still-prime-minister-how-about-now-or-now-20150301-13rzez.html
Section 2 . . .
Abbott’s flailing search for scapegoats.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/01/tony-abbotts-failing-search-scapegoats
Amanda Vanstone – How Abbott mishandled GillianTriggs.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-abbott-mishandled-the-attack-on-triggs-20150301-13rsy9.html
The 43 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/28/the-twenty-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-209/
The availability of mental health services is very skewed.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/01/large-gap-between-rich-and-poor-areas-in-use-of-mental-health-services-revealed
This is an interesting metadata protest suggestion – cc every email to George Brandis.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/01/curious-george-brandis-wants-your-metadata-save-him-hassle-cc-him-everything
An op-ed from Ricky Muir on the job hopes of the young.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/take-it-from-me-we-cant-afford-to-crush-young-peoples-employment-hopes-20150301-13ql0d.html
Luke Foley fires up the faithful.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/luke-foley-banking-on-history-to-give-mike-baird-an-electricity-shock-20150301-13rw77.html
A harrowing article based on personal experience inside an abusive Christian marriage.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/abuse-inside-christian-marriages–a-personal-story-20150301-13rrvr.html
Mark Knight on how Putin deals with political challenges.
David Rowe – Abbott’s last days. And just have a look at Credlin!
TBA
[We all remember the $900-$1000 cheques Rudd was sending out and it lifted him into the Poll stratosphere. It was very easy, just spend taxpayer and let someone else pay it off in the future.]
Very like Howard/Costello, really. They sent out a few cheques themselves.
Can you believe anything Sharry Markson writes?
[PM aspirants in secret agent class
Sharri Markson
THE AUSTRALIAN
MARCH 02, 2015 12:00AM
THE leadership contenders for the prime ministership, Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull, are using a secret messaging service to communicate, in which their correspondence self-destructs.
Turnbull and Morrison, along with other MPs like Alex Hawke, have been using a social media app called Wickr to discuss the leadership crisis and any movement in numbers.
Wickr has private, encrypted and self-destructing data and files sent over the service are “shredded” in a cyber sense because there is no trace of them.
Wickr has been the preferred method of communication among most behind the February 9 leadership spill, and is being used to discuss strategy and Tony Abbott’s performance.
Politicians adopted the app because they were concerned all other correspondence, including texts and emails, could be traced, copied or was insecure.
The US government has been unsuccessful in trying to hack into the app. Similar to snapchat, there is a “default destruction” time of between a few seconds to six days after the message is read. If a screenshot of the communication is taken, the user is advised.
Diary downloaded Wickr and, sure enough, was able to locate Turnbull among its users. But I won’t reveal his code name ]
The SmearStralian
Thanks for the links BK.
One point (in Hartcher’s article) that should be considered is the possibility that some voters, seeing that the ALP now has a chance are horse-shy and have swung back to the Libs, no matter how bad they are.
Another possibility is that all of the leadership talk (even the HRC fiasco) has taken policy off the front page, by policy I am talking the co-payment, higher ed, dole changes.
It will be interesting to he how Hockey handles the inter-gen report.
Given the polling I wonder how insufferable Abbott is going to be to his colleagues, and annoy them even more.
My facebook feed has been full of anti muslim rhetoric from australian and us friends for the last 3 weeks. Obamas approval has slipped about four points in 3 weeks too without any obvious reason.
I suspect grassroots muslim bashing both here and in the usa has caused a 4 point swing to conservative.
Another theory i found interesting is that there was always a shift to gillard before a leadership change. Any evidence for this?
morning all
Thanks BK and others for today’s offerings.
graham white
Check out post at 115