Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

Ipsos delivers the government its best poll result since early November – and unlike Newspoll, it has Tony Abbott’s personal ratings up as well.

The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)

The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,075 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 22
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  1. There has to be serious questions about Bill Shortens leadership tonight after this stunning polling turn around.

    Bowen? Plebersek? Albanese? Who is up next.

  4. victoria@196

    Latika Bourke on twitter

    Ray Hadley decides to call a ‘spade a spade.’ @TurnbullMalcolm has been white-anteing he tells @ScottMorrisonMP – he’s cultivating you.

    Terrific. Damaging the tories best prospect.

    🙂

  6. I wonder how rusted on Pyne is in supporting Abbott? I ask because all those articles Amanda Vanstone has been writing attacking Abbott. Their friendship is well known.

  7. [ TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Labor….. after 400 promises to post a budget surplus they still failed ]

    Produce your proof this was said *400* times

  8. [There has to be serious questions about Bill Shortens leadership tonight after this stunning polling turn around]

    I guess you didn’t read the poll results. Shorten is preferred ALP leader you dimwit.

  9. i agree TBA

    however on other side we are truly in national mire if SM is taken seriously at all as a leader? that party is bereft

  10. [204
    victoria

    Labor must think its xmas. Abbott still leader, whilst the trashing of Turnbull is in full swing.]

    lol

  12. TBA you will never win with unions folk on PB against one of their own however blind freddie sees warning signals from labor … mind there have been worse leaders and PM I suppose but country deserve a little better some intellectual qualities articulation plus charisma

  16. Can someone translate this into English please?

    [… mind there have been worse leaders and PM I suppose but country deserve a little better some intellectual qualities articulation plus charisma]

  17. [Labor must think its xmas. Abbott still leader, whilst the trashing of Turnbull is in full swing.]

    And best of all Abbott reveres people like Bolt and Hadley so we know they have his ear.

  18. “@SenatorWong: Penny moving a motion in the Senate censuring Senator Brandis for failing to defend AHRC and seeking the resignation of Prof Triggs – TW”

  19. Australian Senate ‏@AuSenate 5m5 minutes ago
    A motion to censure the Attorney-General is now being moved by Senator Wong

  21. In the meantime, the Commonwealth will borrow another $1.9 billion this week. Revenue is falling in real per capita terms while spending is rising much more quickly than the economy is growing. The LNP is losing control of public finance at the same time as growth in the economy fades.

  23. Victoria

    The last Vic Labor government wanted to create suburban hubs around railway stations similar to Box Hill, but failed because of nimby pressure. The Coalition planning was less than hopeless.

  25. ruawake@215

    Can someone translate this into English please?

    … mind there have been worse leaders and PM I suppose but country deserve a little better some intellectual qualities articulation plus charisma

    It is from Geoffrey, so that’s not always easy.

    [Mind you, there have been worse leaders of parliamentary parties, and worse Prime Ministers, I suppose, but this country deserves a little better than him. We need someone with a higher intellect, able to articulate his thoughts clearly, and someone with charisma. ]

    I don’t think you were serious in your request, but it was an interesting challenge!

    😀

  26. [“Produce your proof this was said *400* times”]

    Over 200 Times by Wayne Swan alone, the other ALP members filled in the rest.

    Heres a couple of highlights:

    The Prime Minister in 2010:

    GILLARD:

    The Budget will be back in the black, back in surplus, in 2012-13…

    OAKES:

    Guaranteed?

    GILLARD:

    Yes, the Budget is coming back to surplus Laurie in 2012-13 as promised.

    (Source: Julia Gillard, Today Show, 7 November 2010)

    The Treasurer three days before the last election in August 2010:

    TREASURER:

    Well we’re getting back into surplus in three years, Kochie.

    KOCH:
    Ok. Come hell or high water?

    TREASURER:
    Come hell or high water.

    (Source: Wayne Swan, Debate with Joe Hockey, Sunrise Program, 18 August 2010)

    An ALP Pamphlet advising everyone the ALP had achieved it’s budget surplus on time as promised!

    JOURNALIST: If you don’t make a, get the Budget back in to surplus in 2012-2013, this is a question to both of you, the cameras are on – will you resign?

    PM: (laughs) The Budget is coming back to surplus, no ifs no buts it will happen.

    ——

    You’ve really opened up a can of worms here Dave, I could do this all day. Best stick to safe ground on this one.

  28. victoria..

    I don’t bother much with PvO ..he likes to play mind games on Twitter ..and I don’t reckon him as a serious political commentator. Certainly he’s not in the same league as Tingle, Taylor, or Seccombe..

  29. don

    I don’t think higher intellects are appreciated by the average voter. I may be wrong, of course, but I’m thinking of … never mind, they’re all Labor!!

  35. “@jmodoh: .@SenatorWong invokes Harry Potter calling Senator Macdonald and Senator O’Sullivan “Crabbe and Goyle” re attack on Triggs”

  36. The major media stories, as I recall, for the period that the COALition and Abbott have gained points and the ALP lost, have been:
    -Abbott draping himself in flags and pressing the buttons of the xenophobes
    -Abbott and his misogynists mates attacking the HRC for noting that we are abusing children
    -probable executions in a foreign country
    -leadershit galore.

    What does it say about roughly 3% of our Oz voters that during this period they have switched their support to Abbott and the COALition?

  37. Have got severe RSI in my scrolling fingers..

    Why anyone bothers to firstly read …and then respond to TBA is beyond me.. 🙁

  38. ruawake
    Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 10:07 am | PERMALINK
    Can someone translate this into English please?

    … mind there have been worse leaders and PM I suppose but country deserve a little better some intellectual qualities articulation plus charisma

    —not meant for you it’s in code … love how linguistic pendantry is used as rebuttal on something sensitive

  40. TrueBlueTossie

    [There has to be serious questions about Bill Shortens leadership tonight after this stunning polling turn around.]

    Ahh, the irony. You’re too funny for words. 😀

  41. don
    Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 10:17 am | PERMALINK
    ruawake@215
    Can someone translate this into English please?

    … mind there have been worse leaders and PM I suppose but country deserve a little better some intellectual qualities articulation plus charisma

    It is from Geoffrey, so that’s not always easy.

    Mind you, there have been worse leaders of parliamentary parties, and worse Prime Ministers, I suppose, but this country deserves a little better than him. We need someone with a higher intellect, able to articulate his thoughts clearly, and someone with charisma.

    I don’t think you were serious in your request, but it was an interesting challenge!

    ———no need to paraphrase – this is not a journal – but thanks for seriousness

    both rudd and gillard had those qualities of course

  42. Perhaps the female voters have come back to the coalition cos the PPL was dumped and have announced more funds for childcare

  43. kakuru@239

    TrueBlueTossie

    There has to be serious questions about Bill Shortens leadership tonight after this stunning polling turn around.


    Ahh, the irony. You’re too funny for words.

    This is the bit truthie hates –

    [ Mr Abbott now even trails Julia Gillard on questions of competence, economic policy, trustworthiness, and strong leadership – all issues on which he relentlessly challenged her credentials – must be particularly galling and show just how much trouble he is in. ]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/voter_views_of_tony_abbott_attributes_vE0pCC2UKXjUaupp3CCceO

  44. [TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 10:19 am | Permalink

    [“Produce your proof this was said *400* times”]

    Heres a couple of highlights:]

    So where is your proof of *400* times with the links?

    Not interested in ‘a couple of highlights’

  46. [ “@jmodoh: .@SenatorWong invokes Harry Potter calling Senator Macdonald and Senator O’Sullivan “Crabbe and Goyle” re attack on Triggs” ]

    What is it with Harry Potter and, for that matter, Lord Of The Rings that excites such eloquence in both our Parlliament and on verious Lefty blogs?

    I have proudly read neither, and consider myself satisfactorily well-adjusted despite their absence from my literary life.

    Also I never watch game shows or Reality TV – especially anything to do with kitchens or renovations.

    I will admit to enjoying QI, but if that is my only character failing (a big call, I know) then I am content.

  48. @John Reidy (151) The left needs better strategies to combat this.
    People are claiming that islam is unlike other religions where in other religions you might do some horrible thing if you take a verse out of context whereas the purest reading of the quran would cause you to do such atrocities even taking context into account.
    It is a logically possible claim so I don’t think calling people racist helps.
    I’ve personally undertaken reading the quran to try and understand its position on violence. A friend of mine has been doing that too. It appears it condones violence only against people that are violently oppressing you or persecuting you (my friend came to the same conclusion) though its not always obvious the context unless you read the whole thing (or at least entire surahs) which might be why the myth is easy to propagate.
    Trying to tell people about this has been difficult. The closest I have had to success is someone grudgingly accepting they should read the quran.
    Another conversation in a public place became unworkable because athiests hijacked the conversation trolling all religion. Another time some athiests were more moderate and said “all religion have crazy things in it. Doesn’t mean its followers follow it”. But I don’t think this is helpful either (because if someone knows a lot about a particular religion and knows the context of these crazy things they may think they don’t understand the claim).

    A Christian gentlemen who was very charitable and kind to some of societies worst criminals was surprisingly inconsistent on this barking “I can’t believe you would defend them”.

    The thing is I’ve mostly targeted people I think are the most reasonable and avoided the most rabid anti muslim friends whose facebook walls have been 24/7 anti muslim propaganda. I have little interest in islam per se but feel concern for my muslim colleagues and friends what this climate must be like for them and could become!

    My Christian friends preach God’s love and unconditional kindness for all. My atheist friends preach racial and religious tolerance. Yet their facebook walls and words look the same on this!

    I think developing strategies to counter predjudice will be difficult and take a lot of thought. It could be politically costly in the meantime

  49. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 45m 45 minutes ago
    Interesting watching today’s poll be spun: An Abbott recovery or is expectation re Turnbull driving improvement? Either way bad for Shorten.]

    But what happens once people realise there’s no move to switch to Turnbull?

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