The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)
The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.
Bushfire:
I’m with you on Harry Potter. I’ve never read it myself, but any inclination I may have felt towards giving it a go has been snuffed out by this absurd obsession we have with it.
Hockey also said he would return the budget to surplus in his first year. What happened to that promise TBA?
TrueBlueAussie@244
That article says –
[ The day before, Mr Hockey had tried to table in parliament a 500-page document that he said outlined Mr Swan and Julia Gillard’s 500 broken promises to return the budget to surplus. ]
Something hockey said *is not proof*
So there you go – you cannot prove your statement!
vic:
No idea.
As someone wrote here a couple of hours ago, PB is certainly full of concern trolls this morning, (and of course TBA, the deadset troll dickhead as well, cuttin and pasting the speak sheets provided for him).
No-one in their right mind should believe that a 4-6% turnaround can happen in a fortnight, unless it has been an absolute humdinger of a fortnight for the Abbotteers. And it was the opposite.
Rotting carcasses just don’t suddenly stop smelling. Unless of course the smeller has a heavy cold and has a temporary olefactory deficit.
Future polls will assuredly show that Ipsos “had a heavy cold” last week.
TrueBlueAussie@246
You are the one making the claim – produce your evidence!
First this (Abbott):
“I want to make it absolutely crystal clear that no cleaner’s pay is reduced,” Mr Abbott said in question time last June.
..and this on the same day (Abetz):
“No cleaner will have their wages reduced as a result of the guidelines ceasing to apply.”
Then this today:
Contracted cleaners at the Department of Immigration and Border Protection are receiving $2 an hour less, even though Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Employment Minister Eric Abetz said this would not happen.
This is why the Abbott Govt will be thrown out next year..
[“Hockey also said he would return the budget to surplus in his first year.”]
Furphy.
His FULL unedited comment was that assuming Labors budget numbers were correct he would deliver a budget surplus in his first year.
Of course as well all now know Labors budget numbers were complete rubbish.
Victoria #249
Nonsense rarely has a rational explanation.
[“You are the one making the claim – produce your evidence!”]
What are those big bundle of papers on Hockeys desk mate?
I’m sure Hockey would be more than happy to email such an eager beaver ALP supporter as yourself a copy!
@_AdamTodd: Clive Palmer says his party will abstain from voting on all legislation “until government chaos ends” #auspol http://t.co/VqUAfnkb56
Oops.. forgot link:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/prime-minister-tony-abbotts-absolutely-crystal-clear-claim-shattered-20150301-13rwok.html
TrueBlueAussie@259
Come back when you have *400* links that can be proven.
Its that simple.
[@_AdamTodd: Clive Palmer says his party will abstain from voting on all legislation “until government chaos ends” #auspol http://t.co/VqUAfnkb56 ]
He might be waiting for a while for that. 😀
It must be tough being an Abbotteer troll.
Imagine how embarrassing it must be for TBA to read back over his inane posts. (FYI TBA, inane means something like childish, silly, foolish)
Fess – Clive deals himself back in 🙂
[Dave… call or email Joe Hockey… he has the list waiting for you!]
Wasn’t Joe promising a surplus each and every year while he was Treasurer?
Short Oz vs Tabloid columnist bit in the “Strewth” bit & pieces section of the Oz. Christian Kerr, ex Crikey writer but very right wing these days (he was a bit more centrist/small “l” Lib in the Crikey/Hillary Bray days) has a go at Bolt. Some shared ideology doesn’t stop the intra company & intra party fights though.
It was once pointed out to me by someone with very good media contacts that there is a lot of in-house rivalry between the News Corp tabloids & The Oz. Each sides leadership hates it when the other side gets a scoop they would have liked, so spats can make it to print.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/strewth/bolts-bulldust/story-e6frgdk6-1227243743770
[Bolt’s bulldust
THE AUSTRALIAN MARCH 02, 2015 12:00AM
Christian Kerr Reporter Melbourne
ANDREW Bolt has been barely able to let go of associate editor John Lyon’s exclusive of 10 days ago that Tony Abbott suggested unilateral Australian ground action in Iraq. During that time his frantic fulminating has produced more than 6000 words worth of copy in his column and blog and heaven only knows how many minutes of radio. He was at it again, yesterday, on his television show, discussing how terrible the story was with Spectator Australia editor Rowan Dean. “I was shocked,” he announced, just in case we hadn’t got his point. Dean denounced the story as a “complete fabrication designed with one end, to destabilise Tony Abbott”. Bolt’s been blunter. He’s called it “bullshit”. The racket has drowned out a few important facts. No one has ever found fault with Lyon’s famous Captain Chaos piece from 2008, the first feature to finger just how bad things were in Kevin Rudd’s office — or his insider work that first exposed the world to Bob Hawke’s ego. Sources who have discussed the matter with The Australian’s editor in chief Chris Mitchell say Bolt indicated early last week that he was aware of the dinner where the discussion took place, and went so far as to concede that the option of Australia committing troops with or without the US was likely to have been raised by the PM. As any journalist would understand, on day one, Lyons was limited in the details he could publish in order to protect his sources. As more has trickled out in estimates, the paper has responded. Alas, Bolt has never been a political reporter. Dean, remember, is a former advertising copywriter. What Bolt might fail to appreciate is that the party keeping the story alive is himself, not The Australian. Then again, he was kind enough to call us “a great newspaper” yesterday. And a glance at where he gets so much of his blog inspiration from only reinforces that. For the readers driven to our website by the countless links to Oz articles, we are, of course, grateful.]
dave:
Clive must’ve been feeling deprived of relevance with the Liberals hogging the limelight with all their drama!
dave@265
Does anyone know what the voting numbers in the senate would be if PUP didn’t vote?
“@shanebazzi: .@senatormilne: They (Abbott government) would rather go through the shock jocks and the Murdoch pamphlet rather than go through the law”
“@shanebazzi: .@senatormilne: We (Greens) do not believe he (Brandis) is fit to hold the office of Attorney-General.”
TBA is partly correct.
And partly wrong.
Swan, and the ALP, clearly thought they could return the budget to surplus. They said so frequently – exact number of times is largely irrelevant.
They were wrong.
BUT, as TBA ignores, exactly the same thing could be stated about the COALition and Joe.
He thought he could return the budget to surplus and said so frequently -exact number of times is largely irrelevant.
He/they were wrong.
In the case of the COALition and Joe their error is actually marginally greater because they had the advantages of hindsight looking back at the trend in falling revenues in the previous months that occurred under the ALP and have continued since.
But the real problem is the framing of the issue based on false premises.
A budget surplus is quite simply an unnecessary obsession by both major parties and the media who all simply iterate an ignorance of fundamental economic reality.
Just one explanation of the stupidity that bedevils the issue.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/09/repeat-after-me-the-australian-economy-is-not-like-a-household-budget
[****Repeat after me: the Australian economy is not like a household budget …****
To prosecute its economic agenda, the Abbott government has relied on the constant repetition of economic myths. I’ve previously dealt with the myths of the budget emergency, the debt crisis and the endlessly repeated lie that the carbon tax was wrecking the economy – but these are only the most obvious myths and not necessarily the most important….
There are many important conversations and debates we should be having about government finances, the role of government, productivity, consumption and leisure. We cannot have them while the government and media commentators perpetuate myths about how our economy actually functions]
The last sentence is important – vital in fact.
fredex@272
Not disputing what Swan said.
I am saying truthie has failed to prove his *400* times claim.
That is what is being tested.
In more good news for the Government, there will be without much doubt yet another Interest Rate Cut tomorrow.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-another-interest-rate-cut-is-coming-20150227-13q847.html
This will put interest rates at a record low 2% great news for people such as myself with a mortgage.
May even give the Coalition a little bit of a bounce in the polls.
don
Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 10:17 am | PERMALINK
ruawake@215
Can someone translate this into English please?
… mind there have been worse leaders and PM I suppose but country deserve a little better some intellectual qualities articulation plus charisma
It is from Geoffrey, so that’s not always easy.
Mind you, there have been worse leaders of parliamentary parties, and worse Prime Ministers, I suppose, but this country deserves a little better than him. We need someone with a higher intellect, able to articulate his thoughts clearly, and someone with charisma.
I don’t think you were serious in your request, but it was an interesting challenge!
———no need to paraphrase – this is not a journal – but thanks for seriousness
both rudd and gillard had those qualities of course
—–ruawake and don
can i humbly suggest in the limited linguistic competence you continue to credit me with that you direct your rhetorical coaching to the fearless labor leader – his lexicon is limited, his sentences simple, his logic banal and his fluency non existent – and he has a rather wider audience than PB – even if he feels constrained in front of mass media that constraint is too visible.
ps you are both very funny
[In the case of the COALition and Joe their error is actually marginally greater because they had the advantages of hindsight looking back at the trend in falling revenues in the previous months that occurred under the ALP and have continued since.
But the real problem is the framing of the issue based on false premises.
A budget surplus is quite simply an unnecessary obsession by both major parties and the media who all simply iterate an ignorance of fundamental economic reality.]
Hockey is far more culpable, he bagged treasury, dismissed international forces and claimed, knowing how hard Swan had worked, that it would be easy. He is in a lot of trouble far and away the worst treasurer we’ve had since Howard but should be in a lot more trouble, a lot of people still believe a lot of his stupid lies.
TBA
Why will there be an interest rate cut? Do you know?
i think polls mean some public want some stability but that is not what they will get
CTar1@266
It is highly unlikely hockey will evah deliver a surplus.
It is more probable he will double the debt if he is treasurer full term.
But the tripe AAA rating may be downgraded while he is treasurer.
Unemployment is already at a decade high and plenty more layoff are in the pipeline, car industry – and flow on etc.
How would 2 abstains affect senate votes? Would the required majority be reduced?
TrueBlueAreshole thrives on atention, like any troll. So why give him what he wants? It’s not as though he has the ability to dredge up any ideas that are remotely interesting or worthy of discussion.
Re Shorten. He seems to be suffering from the same disease that afflicted Gillard: stilted, unnatural delivery, seemingly lacking any real conviction or passion. Unfortunately I think that Shorten is worse. Listening to him at the NSW Labor launch, he has the annoying habit of emphasising the wrong word in a sentence, which makes him sound insincere and wooden.
Have the been advised by the same numbskull/s?
BB
I’m proud not to have read Dan Brown, 50 Shades of Grey, and various other flash in the pan sensations.
I’m very proud to have read all the Harry Potter books, and constantly re read them. My eighteen year old son (who has never previously finished a ‘real’ book) has just finished reading all the Potter books.
They are extremely good works of fiction, and will be taught as classics next century.
(‘Dr Who’ put Rowling up there with Shakespeare. I wouldn’t go that far, but she’s undeniably good, and – like Shakespeare – has introduced new words into the language).
Interestingly, both Gillard and Shorten were excellent communicators prior to their leadership role. Very strange…
victoria
[Why will there be an interest rate cut? Do you know?]
Because the economy is sick and getting sicker.
TBA might take note of Hockey’s commentary when there was an interest rate cut under the previous government.
Kakuru
Indeed, but does TBA want to admit that reality? 🙂
As this week draws to a close, Abbott will probably still be PM, Turnbull will have sunk back under the pond scum from whence he came and Australia will still be rooted.
The Budget will remain unpassed. Hockey will still be chucking tantrums and sooking at every real or imagined slight. We will still be borrowing billions per week. The NBN and Alternative Energy will remain in chaos. And the manufacturing industry – most pointedly in benighted South Australia – will be in tatters.
So what happens? TBA bursts forth, sees a single swallow in the form of Ipsos, and thinks it’s summer all over again.
It ain’t. The problems we as a nation have are still real, and getting worse. The leadership has the skill set and vision limited to that of a Students Representative Council with too much time on its hands. Disgruntlement will continue to fester in Liberal ranks, every now and again raising to fever pitch when yet another Abbott Captain’s Pick crashes and burns.
The extract I read (here, I think) last week from Abbott’s Battle Lines masterpiece was quite compelling. Unemployed, he had been parachuted into a management position at a cement works, with absolutely no experience of the job or the industry. Within a short time he started throwing his weight around, ordering truckie owner-drivers around: fix this, replace that, smarten this up… He was so obnoxious that they decided to go out on strike. Told by his boss he’d stuffed up, Abbott decided to beg forgiveness from the union shop steward. He got it. Sound familiar?
He tells this story himself, self-deprecatingly. I would have been nice if he’d learnt the lesson: just because someone installs you as chief head-kicker doesn’t mean you have to kick heads.
Wherever he went he saw order and sought to introduce his own particular brand of chaos. He was chucked out of the seminary for it. He punched walls when he lost student elections. He rabble-roused.
He never figured out that being the boss doesn’t mean you have to be always telling people what to do. It’s because he failed to appreciate the basic decency of ordinary people to do a fair day’s work for a fair day’s reward, to be adults and to be responsible.
His overweening narcissism and ego always got him into trouble. He got out of it either by kicking down or kissing up. But now there is no-one to kiss up to. All he has left is the boot and the biffo.
Abbott will see his survival this week as a justification for everything has has gone on in the past, to date. His whips will have been storming from backbencher to backbencher, throwing their weight around, telling people what they are to do, and the consequences of not doing it. All so he can survive another day, his one single aim in life… get through the day. He played the Terrorism card once again, morphing a couple of random acts of mostly imagined violence into nation-shattering importance, worthy of spending billions and taking away our rights to a modicum of privacy in our communications.
Meanwhile the real scandal of battered wives continues apace at one violent murder per week on average. Even the Australian Of The Year award couldn’t eclipse Abbott’s insanity. He just to steal the limelight and so gave the fossilized Prince Phillip a trinket to put in his bottom drawer.
The most obvious battered wife in all of this is the Australian electorate. We do keep coming back for more, don’t we?
All Abbott’s done is insincerely say he’s sorry, once more. Nothing’s changed. He’ll do what he’s always done: see the temporary capitulation of his party room as a weakness, with him standing tall over them. More trouble and wrecking is to come. He can’t help himself.
I’d be more upset, except for the fact that it seems the Press Gallery has been denied the scalp they thought they had in the bag. All the talk of “Death Zones” and of Abbott being “finished” has come to naught. Hartcher today is spewing sour grapes. He jumped off his man-crush in midstream only to find the water’s full of piranhas. The chuckling chancers from Insiders and the rest of the panel shows have egg on their faces. So at least that’s a plus.
Australia, like the battered wife it has become, has let the abuser back into the home, so he can batter, threaten, lecture, lie and abuse again. People like Abbott – at 57, set in his ways – never change and never grow up. They just move onto their next victim, or start up on the current one again.
Until the nation is prepared to say “Enough!” it’ll continue to be a co-dependent with Abbott, fueling his instinct to torment others and to self-aggrandize.
They probably deserve one another, but this can’t go on forever without a resolution, one way or the other. No system is stable under Rule-By-Thug, and when ours cracks it’s going to be highly unpleasant for all concerned. That’s a future horror I’m almost too scared to contemplate.
TBA
and Hockey claimed he would deliver a surplus even more quickly.
WeWantPaul at #276
Fair enough, right on target actually – I was attempting to be diplomatic and conciliatory. Not sure why.
For me the central issue is that until the discussion is framed in real terms and not fallacy and myth people are going to continue to be hurt by ignorant policies.
BB
The Libs are divided and some want Abbott, Hockey and Credlin gone. Those with self interest in mind ie ministirial portfolios, dont want any changes. Even battered wives evntually leave their abusers
zoomster@282
Try JKR’s new – ‘Cormoran Strike’ Series written under the name of Robert Galbraith.
They are corkers!
The Silkworm and Cuckoo Calling with many more in the series planned.
JKR is also a staunch supporter of British Labour – having donated about a million pounds to them.
[For me the central issue is that until the discussion is framed in real terms and not fallacy and myth people are going to continue to be hurt by ignorant policies.]
Yes and to my mind Labor should do it before the next election.
May not make the normal news, but a whole lot of GDP partials were jsut released by the ABS. Long story short, Wednesday is GDP day and itmight be ugly for the economy, and by extension, the Govrnment.
Rough and dirty a second consecuritve quarerly print of 0.3% or thereabouts is on the cards.
adrian
I have my concerns about Shorten also. His delivery and the baggage of overthrowing two leaders does not sit well with me.
There are some very talented people in the Labor Party like Dreyfus and Husic who when they speak people listen.
adrian
Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 11:25 am | PERMALINK
TrueBlueAreshole thrives on atention, like any troll. So why give him what he wants? It’s not as though he has the ability to dredge up any ideas that are remotely interesting or worthy of discussion.
Re Shorten. He seems to be suffering from the same disease that afflicted Gillard: stilted, unnatural delivery, seemingly lacking any real conviction or passion. Unfortunately I think that Shorten is worse. Listening to him at the NSW Labor launch, he has the annoying habit of emphasising the wrong word in a sentence, which makes him sound insincere and wooden.
Have the been advised by the same numbskull/s?
—- maybe don and ruawake advise their leader? they like chiding lesser souls here but they should save their linguistic analysis to Shorten who would not score C for an undergrad presentation (I mean that)
and yes your micro point on word emphasis is true and only past of rhetorical issue
RA
Thanks for the heads up.
[The Libs are divided and some want Abbott, Hockey and Credlin gone. Those with self interest in mind ie ministirial portfolios, dont want any changes. ]
To be fair, there’d probably be an equal number of people acting out of self interest on the other side as well.
it seems odd to me that none of the pundits seems to consider this poll might be a rogue – no body seems to point to anything abbott did last week that would explain the result – all did the reporting on likely corruption in trying to get Triggs to resign play in his favour? I am worried about australians if his xenophobic tub thumping and screaming at the person who pointed out we are abusing children in detention centres has worked politically for him. The only credible reasons for the vote shift can be:
1. People think abbott will be dumped and so are willing to say they’ll vote LNP
2. Labor voters lied to try to prop up abbott (unlikely I think)
3. the pollsters hit a right-leaning sample ( a 4% primary vote swing from labor to LNP doesn’t seem credible).
4. another explanation may be that queenslanders have vented their anger and NSW voters are going to vote baird back in a landslide because NSW labor are still a bit shithouse and baird looks reasonable. I’d be interested to see state by state polling.
what astounds me is the immediate cultural amnesia in the media re: how bad last week was for the government in parliament. just to remind them – the attorney-general got caught trying to bribe an independent commissioner and is the subject of a federal police investigation. The notes from the meeting where the bribe was offered have been ‘lost’ after the messenger sent to offer the bribe dropped himself in it at the senate hearing. the chair if the senate hearing did not read the report the hearing is about. the other LNP senator made a remark that showed himself to be a sexist tool implying the women were getting a bit uppity be talking too much.
& abbott has been caught doing captains calls promising the japanese submarine supply contracts, and then lying to SAs about this. repeatedly.
this provided a 4% positive swing?
I would have expected at least one pundit to express bewilderment and skepticism, but all reporting treats this poll as though it is gospel. when it corrects back to 53:47/54:46 I wonder how they’ll react?
and finally – Shorten is behaving too much like Beazley – he needs to step up and present policy and really sell a credible alternative to the LNP. The LNP are obviously going to play dead on their hard right policies in the hope of winning the election so they can pursue their hard right policies next term. labor should everyday hammering home this message and the message that LNP cannot be trusted and does not listen. they also need a smart position on the ETS or they will get thumped by a fear campaign.
“@bevanshields85: George Brandis: “I don’t think there have been any malicious attacks on Professor Gillian Triggs” #auspol”
[I have my concerns about Shorten also. His delivery and the baggage of overthrowing two leaders does not sit well with me.
There are some very talented people in the Labor Party like Dreyfus and Husic who when they speak people listen.]
The more important lesson for Labor is learning how serious it is to select a leader at state or national level. That they should stick with that leader is more important than the never ending discussions of who might be better, and never ending counting of numbers. They should learn to have hard discussions about ‘who is best for a given role’ in the national and party interest (in that order) and they should do it from preselection through all decisions they make.
Yes they are going to get some wrong and there will need to be difficult discussions when they do, but at the moment counting votes and toppling leaders, or counting votes and fixing preselections without regard to the national interest or indeed to the greater party interest is the natural easy game to play.
We are almost as bad as the liberals.