The year’s second Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers seems to confirm two things: the government’s poll recovery from the depths of the leadership spill, and the pollster’s relative lean to the Coalition. The poll records a straight four-point exchange on the primary vote, with Labor down to 36% and the Coalition up to 42%, and the Greens up one to 12%. This gives Labor a lead of just 51-49 based on 2013 election preferences. There will presumably be another respondent-allocated result to come, and if past form is any guide it will have Labor further ahead (UPDATE: It does, though only to the extent of 52-48.)
The obligatory bad news for Tony Abbott is provided by a preferred Liberal leader question, which places him third at 19%. Malcolm Turnbull tops the leader board on 39%, with Julie Bishop second on 26%. Unlike Newspoll, there is also improvement on Tony Abbott’s personal ratings: his net approval rating is up eight to a still dreadful minus 30%, and Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 50-34 to 44-39. After a somewhat quirky result in his favour last time, Shorten’s net approval rating slumps from plus 10% to zero, with both approval and disapproval on 43%. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday, with a sample of 1406.
[it seems odd to me that none of the pundits seems to consider this poll might be a rogue]
Of course it may be – but it does appear to fit in with an overall trend in the polls back towards the Government. The public don’t pay a lot of attention to the minutiae of politics so may just be going from a general impression of events from fleeting moments caught on the news.
BB thank you for your effort and analysis
you express what can be hard to put into words
the world burns and abbott struts his stuff
and what will there be left after he is gone ……..
Cheaper interest rates are bad – That’s what Hockey said when Labor was in power.
Cheaper interest rates have effect on people saving money.
Like any Liberal troll (TBA/etc), they rather abuse other posters (and I’ve seen this on other sites).
Because that is how they are taught by their masters and don’t know any better than some scum on the street bullying people.
Where did 500 page document btw? It’s certainly not from the Treasury, it’s probably from one of the major companies that do tax dodging like PwC.
[“@bevanshields85: George Brandis: “I don’t think there have been any malicious attacks on Professor Gillian Triggs” #auspol”]
Again the government doing its own theatre of the absurd.
[ one of the major companies that do tax dodging like PwC.]
Again if we are to have a sensible tax debate in this country people need to stop with the stupid lines like that, certainly doesn’t help anyone.
I have never worked for PwC but they made me a very nice offer that one time …
TBA:
Still not interested in dealing with economic or fiscal reality, I see. Instead, you’d rather also dwell in political lala-land with baseless, pointless speculation about Shorten being rolled.
Hint: It’s not going to happen while Labor’s in front, be it 50.1-49.9 or 59-41.
“@political_alert: Independent Senator @JacquiLambie will support the censure motion against Attorney-General George Brandis #auspol”
WeWantPaul @303:
If TBA’s any indication, being completely and irreconcilably divorced from reality plays well with the Lib base.
[“@political_alert: Independent Senator @JacquiLambie will support the censure motion against Attorney-General George Brandis #auspol”]
She cops so much flak and has quite a few offbeat beliefs but she is far preferable to most of the coalition in that she seems willing to think and learn.
zoidlord:
Haven’t seen you for a while. Hope you’ve been well.
WWP @ 304
[I have never worked for PwC but they made me a very nice offer that one time …]
Doesn’t make them good people. I have no view either way, but your comment does explain why lobbying firms spend a lot of money wining and dining and contributing to party funds, etc without specific promises in return.
The overall positive glow that is left behind is very powerful down the track.
Zoidlord
How have you been?
Which 54 schools is the govt going to give money to boost their security?
Hi Zoidlord
I too am glad to see you back 🙂
WWP @ 308
[she seems willing to think and learn]
I definitely have my doubts about the ‘think’ bit. That said, she is a pretty good conduit into the way a hell of a lot of people feel about politics and political issues and should be not be ignored. And I do admire the way that she is not letting herself be suborned into the political establishment.
The one to watch is Ricky Muir. I was very impressed with his attitude on Scott Morrison’s blackmail over the children in detention. While I would have held out, he made it very clear that it was humanitarian and not political considerations that drove him. If anyone is willing to think and learn it appears to be him. But he is coming off a very low base in terms of political awareness and it will take time.
@267
[He was at it again, yesterday, on his television show, discussing how terrible the story was with Spectator Australia editor Rowan Dean.]
Arghhh, Bolt & Dean together. Barf-o-rama.
[Doesn’t make them good people.]
Well like any cohort there are good and less good at PwC, as there is at EY, KPMG and the second tier firms.
But by and large it is very ill-informed and unhelpful to an intelligent and productive tax discussion to just bag them all as tax cheats. Immediately anyone who knows how it really works knows that you are a clown with no idea about tax.
[257
TrueBlueAussie
“Hockey also said he would return the budget to surplus in his first year.”]
The decline in the terms of trade from 2011 onwards prevented the budget from returning to balance while Labor was in power, but they still got a lot closer than the LNP will.
As recently as December in his MYEFO statement Hockey promised the deficit would start to fall from that very month. Of course, three months on the deficit is still rising. Hockey has lost control of the budget. Revenue is falling. Spending is growing. Government borrowing is growing twice as fast now as it did during the last year of Labor’s term.
Bill Shorten about to address the Australians re multi-national tax evasion.
Better late than never in getting out there on the front foot.
Hope it’s a strong outline of policy agenda that is vigorously sustained from now to the election.
[The decline in the terms of trade from 2011 onwards prevented the budget from returning to balance while Labor was in power, but they still got a lot closer than the LNP will.]
Because Swan was actually trying to get the budget to surplus, Hockey initially did all he could to blow the budget as far into deficit as he could, obviously assuming we wouldn’t notice what he was doing. Then he introduced the most stupid and unfair budget we’ve ever seen in Australia and proceeded to fail to get it passed what should be a comparatively easy senate for the libs.
[“I don’t think there have been any malicious attacks on Professor Gillian Triggs”]
Brandis: so perfect in his pompous self-belief that he doesn’t recognise his own behaviour for what it is.
Don’t want to start a gender war, but this is typical of some arrogant males.
Shorten on now
“@AustralianLabor: “How much tax you pay shouldn’t depend upon how much you can afford to pay your tax lawyer.” @billshortenmp #auspol http://t.co/ZaNvurPwmr”
Excellent announcement from Shorten !
WWP @ 316
[knows that you are a clown with no idea about tax]
I made it clear that I have no view one way or the other. I was more interested in how goodwill is bought, which I riffed on from your comment about being offered a job.
And yes, these guys do their jobs – but some go above and beyond and trash whatever ethics they have at the same time.
“@AustralianLabor: “New limits on the amount of debt that companies can claim tax deductions against” @billshortenmp #auspol”
“@AustralianLabor: “The measures we are talking about today raise almost $2 billion” @Bowenchris #auspol”
lizzie
[Don’t want to start a gender war, but this is typical of some arrogant males.]
Well, I remember Michaela Cash’s appallingly embarrassing performance slamming Penny Wong for not sticking with the sisterhood when she supported Rudd redux. The women can be pretty bad – and actually more savage on fellow women than men can.
“@AustralianLabor: “We’ve always been prepared to back fair measures that support Budget repair & today, we are setting the agenda…” @Bowenchris #auspol”
Simple logical policy from the ALP that’s well articulated.
It’s not hard !
“Multinationals need a tax handout like Prince Philip needs a knighthood” GOLD!!! #auspol
[Multinationals need a tax handout like Prince Philip needs a knighthood]
Linking it to the knighthood seems a bit desperate.
Yeah I’m good.
I have a girlfriend now (which means a thing called real life).
So not much time to spend on internet as I use to be able to.
Btw the Coalition Party are using the same company to do it’s costings for policies (which is PwC) the same company it is tax dodging the goverment:
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/revealed-the-true-cost-of-metadata-retention-20150302-13sdk5.html
So why should anyone believe Coalition Party on budget/policies at all? When they are using same companies that are rorting the system?
[Bill Shorten about to address the Australians re multi-national tax evasion.
Better late than never in getting out there on the front foot.
Hope it’s a strong outline of policy agenda that is vigorously sustained from now to the election.]
Lets hope it is an intelligent factual discussion and policy agenda based on it.
[I have a girlfriend now (which means a thing called real life).]
Real life? How quaint.
The national accounts for the December Quarter will be out on Wednesday this week. This report will follow data for June and September that showed decided weakness. Seasonally adjusted growth in September Quarter was a mere 0.3%. The outlook for December is also weak.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/03/gdp-partials-weak/
zoidlord
[Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 12:17 pm | PERMALINK
Yeah I’m good.
I have a girlfriend now]
So pleased that things are going well! 🙂
[And yes, these guys do their jobs – but some go above and beyond and trash whatever ethics they have at the same time.]
I’ve been one of these guys for about 20 years, and I’ve seen very few who would fit your ‘bad guy’ class. There is one in particular that springs to mind from the early 90s. By and large even the guys that come to the job without any personal ethics at all know the rules and know they have a lot more to lose than they have to gain by breaking them. It just isn’t worth it.
TPOF
🙂
Michaelia Cash belongs to a sisterhood that I want no association with.
the Tories will never be able to do much about the deficit unless they address the revenue. Cuts, cuts and more cuts will not fix it
The howard era tax cuts are leaving a nasty legacy.
But given their great leadership and economic management skills, not to mention their resurgent popularity shown in Newspoll, Abbott and Hockey should be able to stand up and with hand on heart declare some tax increases are necessary to save the nation. After all what’s another broken promise.
No doubt their cheerleaders in the media with fall into line, the voters will accept there is no gain without pain and cheerily re-elect the Tories in 2016 and before we know it will be happy days here again.
Ok, stretching it a bit there…
WWP
[She cops so much flak and has quite a few offbeat beliefs but she is far preferable to most of the coalition in that she seems willing to think and learn.]
Certain of those ‘offbeat beliefs’ seem resistant to thinking and learning. If Lambie could ditch her knee-jerk xenophobia (including her ugly fetish against burqa/niqab/hijab wearers), she might be okay.
I hope I’m wrong but it looks to me as if the decision by PUP to abstain from all voting in the Senate until the chaos stops can only benefit the government. Effectively the Senate numbers drop from 76 to 74 making the number required for a majority 38, as against 39. The number of cross benchers effectively drops from 8 to 6.
At present with PUP’s two senators voting against measures like the co-payment and the deregulation of uni fees it only needs the additional vote of Jackie Lambie to block them (and she is a virtual certainty to do so). But with PUP gone it needs Lambie plus one other from the remaining five and that is not as easy to read.
All of which makes me a bit suspicious of just what Palmer is up to.
[Certain of those ‘offbeat beliefs’ seem resistant to thinking and learning. If Lambie could ditch her knee-jerk xenophobia (including her ugly fetish against burqa/niqab/hijab wearers), she might be okay.]
I think perhaps a number of posters have missed the ‘preferable to most of the coalition’, it isn’t a very high bar and it isn’t a great recommendation.
Darn
I think Palmer is, as they say, making a statement. He has to remain relevant, after all.
markjs
Posted Monday, March 2, 2015 at 10:26 am | PERMALINK
Have got severe RSI in my scrolling fingers..
Why anyone bothers to firstly read …and then respond to TBA is beyond me.. 🙁
So true Mark wish everyone would just ignore ToBeAdvised, as my scrolling finger is also very sore :devil:
Shorten zinger at the end
Can the Government work out who is in charge and let us know
guytaur
It was a good zinger 😀
With TBA singing the praises of the Coalition that interest rate are heading toward super low levels it reminded me of something.
When Labor had interest rates falling Australia’s resident economic Joe Hockey was claiming such low levels were proof that Labor had farked the economy. Amazing the now even lower levels = proof of LNP economic prowess.
What’s this about PUP abstaining? Any links?
Nevermind, have found it myself.