The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania has support for Labor at its highest level in a very long time, with a three point gain since the November poll to 34%. However, the gain has come at the expense of the Greens, who are down four to 15%, while the Liberals are steady on 42%. The results at the election were 51.2% for the Liberals, 27.3% for Labor and 13.8% for the Greens. Will Hodgman’s lead over Bryan Green as preferred premier has narrowed from 50-22 to 48-26. Full results here.
Looks like the Abbott factor is resurrecting Labor’s fortunes in Tassie too.
Hmmm…..another first-term Liberal Government wearing poorly.
Seems to be a trend of late – but don’t worry, it’s all Labor’s fault. And the media’s. And the lefties’. And so on and so forth.
It’s a pity that EMRS did not take the opportunity to conduct the poll with 200 respondents in each of the 5 Hare-Clark electorates, to give a sense of the numbers on the floor of the House of Assembly if an election were held now.
Taking into account what is known about the house effects of EMRS polling, I think it’s quite possible the Liberals would hang on to 13 seats on these numbers. All the same their polling is quite lacklustre.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/emrs-it-looks-like-hung-parliament-poll.html
EMRS: It Looks Like A Hung Parliament Poll, But …
Andrew, West Essendon@3
They used to release electorate by electorate detail. The problem is that the samples are so tiny that the electorate by electorate results always generated a lot of nonsense commentary. All the same it would be useful to me to have the data. As it is we’ll have to wait for the next ReachTEL, whenever that is.
If this poll is taken straight with no assumed house effects then assuming geographically uniform swing the most likely result is 12-9-4. But adjusting for house effects I get 13-10-2 as most likely closely followed by 12-10-3.
What would happen if there was another minority parliament? I don’t imagine Labor are too keen on another coalition with the Greens, so that could be chaotic.
Bird of paradox@6
It could well be a repeat of the 1996-8 parliament. The Liberals had lost their majority but Labor refused to govern in minority so the Liberals were left stuck with it with extremely minimal and fragile Greens support on confidence and supply. Extremely messy parliament.
Hasn’t Labor said it would accept government relying on Green support in case of a minority parliament next time around? The only thing that has changed is it has ruled out offering ministerships to the Greens. This apparently isn’t a problem for the Greens.
Coast@8
That is what they took to the 2014 election. I haven’t heard of them formally changing it. They did decide they would never again have Greens in cabinet but they could always reverse that decision in the future.
If we’re going into the election with polling similar to the present, it will be just so easy for the Liberals to say that only they can win a majority and that a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens. So there will be a lot of pressure on Labor to say they won’t govern with the Greens.
Kevin Bonham@7
Is there a mechanism to allow another election if say either of the major parties refuse to form government? Or is it the usual test on the floor with the confidence vote?
Raaraa@10
The incumbent government continues until its commission is terminated. So if a government “refuses” to govern, but there is no stable alternative available, then the incumbent government is sent back to the House for the House to determine its fate. It continues until it loses confidence of the House.
If a situation was reached in which the previous government had been dislodged by a no-confidence motion and it was clear that no alternative could gain the confidence of the House, then a fresh election could be called.
In 2010 the late Governor Underwood stated he would have sent Bartlett back into the House as Premier whether Bartlett had a deal with the Greens or not, because there was no evidence of a stable alternative.
Raaraa, I think it would be electorally awkward, to say the least, for both majors to go back to the people saying “Wrong answer, try again”.
Doubly so since the Greens are polling relatively low, sitting on their barest core support as they did in the 2014 election – I think it would be far more likely for the majors to shed support to the Greens than the other way around, resulting in an even more convincingly hung parliament.
But that’s all just speculation. If Labor and the Liberals are so keen to keep the Greens out, maybe they’re almost ready to form a bipartisan Grand Coalition government.. but that would put the Greens on the Opposition benches, something they’ve craved in Tasmania for years.
Interesting times.
PhoenixGreen@12
It would be interesting to see someone take the German answer to the question and just form a grand coalition.
Minister for Encryption: metadata avoidance app Wickr shoots to top of charts after Malcolm Turnbull revealed as a fan
Turnbull is a hypocrite on metadata.
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/consumer-security/minister-for-encryption-metadata-avoidance-app-wickr-shoots-to-top-of-charts-after-malcolm-turnbull-revealed-as-a-fan-20150303-13tgxy.html
Whoops wrong thread.
I don’t think the grand coalition thing will happen for any length of time (it has happened informally, very briefly, for strategic reasons near the end of a couple of parliaments). Looking at the German example the senior party prospers and the junior party becomes superfluous and withers.
Actually by the time of the next election the federal Liberals could well be toast in which case Hodgman will have it much easier.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/underwhelming-result-in-wilderness-poll.html
Underwhelming Result In Wilderness Poll
Just me letting off steam about some dodgy stuff from the Bob Brown Foundation. 🙂