James J in comments has the goods on Newspoll, brought to you by tomorrow’s Australian. After contracting from 57-43 to 53-47 in last fortnight’s poll, this one splits the difference at 55-45. The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one) and 12% for the Greens (steady), so I think it’s fair to say that rounding has a fair bit to do with the two-point shift on two-party preferred. There is slight improvement for Tony Abbott on personal ratings after two successive diabolical results, with his approval up three to 28% and disapproval down five to 63%. However, Bill Shorten is also back up after a series of weak results, with approval up four to 39% and disapproval down seven to 42%. His lead as preferred prime minister widens from 43-35 to 44-33. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, from a sample of 1161.
UPDATE: The Australian’s report here.
UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Another stable result for Essential’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40% and everything else unchanged – the Coalition on 40%, Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 2% and two-party preferred on 53-47. We also get Essential’s monthly personal ratings, recording the change since Tony Abbott’s post-Australia Day nadir. His approval is up two to 31% with disapproval down six to 56%, which is still solidly worse than where he was in January. Bill Shorten is up one on both approval and disapproval to 34% and 39%, and likewise rating solidly lower than two months ago. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is pared back from 39-31 to 37-33.
Further questions find 50% opposed to sending troops to Iraq, with only 36% in support. Questions on tax find respondents believing companies and individuals on high incomes pay too little of it and everyone else pays too much, and that higher tax rates for multinational corporations would be good for the economy.
Still to come this afternoon: the fortnightly face-to-face plus SMS result from Morgan.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): Contra Newspoll, Morgan shifts to the Coalition since last fortnight’s result, their primary vote up 1.5% to 39%, with Labor down 2.5% to 38% and the Greens up 1.5% to 11.5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead is 53.5-46.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively compared with 56-44 and 55-45 last time. The result is unusual for Morgan both in failing to record Labor above the overall trend, and in not having Labor higher on respondent-allocated than previous election preferences. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3182.
Briefly @892:
[I think we need to see inflation and deflation the way they saw them in the 1930s. Deflation occurs when economic agents prefer to hold currency rather than other “values”; and inflation is the converse: agents prefer to hold other “values” rather than currency, leading them to shed currency (it depreciates).]
So what you’re saying is that it’s demand-centered, not supply-centered. A valid point.
[Is a depreciation caused by a trade imbalance? Maybe, maybe not. We’ve had trade imbalances for decades and the currency has both appreciated and depreciated. Currency fluctuations have a lot more to do with portfolio-related capital flows than trade flows.]
Again, a valid point. I should have known this one at least, given how much I kvetch about the endless money-churning driving the spiraling forex volumes.
Regarding your earlier statement (@721) about business confidence, what’s a “good” number for it to be at?
@ briefly, 899
The fact that you can’t put a number on what the supply and demand for a commodity is does not mean that the price of that commodity is not dictated by supply and demand.
Arrnea @902:
[The fact that you can’t put a number on what the supply and demand for a commodity is does not mean that the price of that commodity is not dictated by supply and demand.]
It does, however, mean that trying to tightly control the supply is pointless, if you don’t know how to predict demand and if other actors (eg banks using fractional-reserve banking) can essentially create money.
Sound bites are how he has conversations.
[In his defence, Abbott asserts he is “very comfortable with my credentials when it comes to doing the right thing by the Aboriginal people of Australia”, especially after running the government from North-East Arnhem Land last year.
But this just makes the insensitivity harder to excuse, the clumsiness harder to fathom, the ignorance more destructive.
The truth of it is that, more than half way into his term, the man who claims to be the prime minister for Indigenous affairs cannot point to any clear achievement in the area.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-choice-of-words-on-indigenous-communities-clumsy-insensitive-destructive-20150311-1415s9.html
Gina’s losing profits through regulations. Gee, how sad.
[Australia’s richest woman Gina Rinehart has attacked federal and state governments for inflicting high costs on local miners, which are battling plunging iron ore prices as global supply swells.
Mrs Rinehart, who is building on her father’s iron ore legacy by developing the $10 billion Roy Hill mine in Pilbara, also endorsed expansion strategies by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. The major miners have come under fire for flooding iron ore markets and depressing iron ore prices.
“You know if Australia doesn’t export, someone else will,” Mrs Rinehart told Fairfax Media on the sidelines of the Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast conference, in Perth, on Wednesday.
Mrs Rinehart, who is estimated by BRW to have a $20 billion fortune, said it was high costs, rather than low iron ore prices that affected her Roy Hill project.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/gina-rinehart-blames-high-mining-costs-on-government-20150311-141foz.html#ixzz3U3siobEL
Malcolm appears to be upping the ante on Abbott and Hockey.
I smell an imminent challenge…
900
poroti
🙂
I know I could always use more of it!
Lizzie @905:
Gina Rinehart’s full of it. Yes, costs are high – but not so high that miners can’t make a healthy profit at more usual prices.
I smell a gambit to smash Australian workers in her remarks.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/11/labors-right-may-lose-control-of-conference-for-first-time-since-1984?CMP=soc_568
Labor’s right faction is at risk of losing control of the party’s national conference for the first time since 1984 – a development that would create a major headache for Bill Shorten.
The ALP is currently in the process of settling the final composition of the 400 delegates to its mid-year national conference, and factional chiefs report the numbers are extremely tight.
One senior party source told Guardian Australia it was possible on current indications that “no one” could control the July conference – meaning that neither the left nor the right factions could muster a clear majority – creating kingmakers out of a small handful of independent delegates without formal factional allegiances…
this could be interesting…
Matt
All she wants is – Bring Back Slavery.
Matt
It seems that the added environmental restrictions are really messing up the mining industry 😉
Seeing all the PB economists have got their juices flowing, I have question related to the new subs.
[If the new subs cost $20 billion to build in Australia, giving all the associated befits to the economy.
How much cheaper would the overseas subs need to be to contract the economic benefits of building here.]
(all answers need to show full workings and be expressed to at least 4 sig figs)
🙂 joking, but I would like to know the answer or at least the concepts involved and an approximate one.
[“Malcolm appears to be upping the ante on Abbott and Hockey.
I smell an imminent challenge…”]
We’ve been hearing this for weeks now
In 912 should be
contract = counteract
How much cheaper would the overseas subs need to be to counterract the economic benefits of building here.
It is a bit ironic that a resource rent tax would be much better for Gina where price and costs were equal. Hilariously stupid greed seems to have scored an own goal here.
[We’ve been hearing this for weeks now]
We keep overestimating the intelligence of the liberal party room!
It is fantastic!
A look at iron ore.
[Rio and BHP destroying themselves: Cliffs
Australia’s biggest iron ore producers Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are destroying themselves and contributing to $US50 billion in lost earnings by flooding the market……”You call that strategy, I call it self-destruction,” Mr Goncalves told reporters at an industry conference in Perth on Wednesday.
“You pay the consequences of that.”Let’s assume that iron ore prices that are now at $US57 go to $US30, it’s possible, you’re going to have Australia going out of business as a country.”]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26595461/rio-and-bhp-destroying-themselves-cliffs/
[“We keep overestimating the intelligence of the liberal party room!
It is fantastic!”]
Why in Gods name would the Lib Party dump it’s leader for someone else 18 months out from an election?
I know Fairfax and a couple of others are pushing for regime change and is quite butt-hurt it didn’t happen, but it really is in the realms of fantasy to think it would happen now
[TrueBlueAussie
Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 7:29 pm | Permalink
“We keep overestimating the intelligence of the liberal party room!
It is fantastic!”
Why in Gods name would the Lib Party dump it’s leader for someone else 18 months out from an election?
I know Fairfax and a couple of others are pushing for regime change and is quite butt-hurt it didn’t happen, but it really is in the realms of fantasy to think it would happen now
]
Because he’s a intellectually challenged, incompetent, psychologically dangerous liability.
@TBA/918
Did you just confirm to the public that Abbott is indeed in election mode?
Thanks for that, we know he’s spineless, but this is like pathetic looser.
Malcolm is playing it smart. Appearing to be a good soldier and waiting for the inevitable spill.
They’re putting subtitles on Noel Pearson…
[zoomster
Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 7:41 pm | Permalink
They’re putting subtitles on Noel Pearson…
]
You’re joking!
Who?
A huge regional trade agreement which would underpin Barack Obama’s “pivot” to Asia could be sealed within weeks, says Trade Minister Andrew Robb.
The catch, however, is that a fast-track approval process from the US Congress has failed to materialise, thanks to a wild-card Democratic senator, Elizabeth Warren, as she positions to woo left-leaning voters from Hillary Clinton ahead of the coming presidential race.
Go Elizabeth, then on to Presidential race !!!!
Maybe a (very) slightly more sensible proposal.
Perhaps we could do with a quaternary education sector. Perhaps human knowledge and our expectations of people entering the workforce have grown so much that standard education should extend another three or so years. So keep just undergrad as tertiary – run by professional educators as with primary and high school – and split off everything following as a 4th division that is more like the universities of half a century ago with a few thousand students.
@sceptic/924
You mean the one that know one knows anything about? Nothing about about fine print etc?
[ They’re putting subtitles on Noel Pearson… ]
Subtitles on Australia’s “best orator”????
Quel Dommage!
Sorry link to 924
http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/make-or-break-for-vital-trade-agreement-with-united-states-andrew-robb-20150311-141hby.html
zoidlord @ 1920
[Did you just confirm to the public that Abbott is indeed in election mode?]
Abbott has been in continuous election – and Opposition – mode since late 2009. The events of September 2013 merely provided more power and resources – but the behaviour, attitudes and bullshit have not changed.
Is Gina as stupid as she sounds.
On one hand we have falling Iron Ore prices due to excess supply, yet Gina thinks if BHP and RIO pull back production then someone else will step in and export.
Clearly Gina has limited understanding of protecting shareholder value, as BHP and RIO’s actions have been pretty reckless,l in effect they are giving away their shareholders assets for half the price that ti was a year or two ago due nin part to their actions.
[Why in Gods name would the Lib Party dump it’s leader for someone else 18 months out from an election?]
He is a hopeless PM who clearly doesn’t have a clue and who is incrediy unpopular polling in Gillard territory, in addition he has promised to take proposals for tax reform and IR reform to the next election.
I hope the liberal party room have your kind of ‘view’. Sadly we know there was almost 40% smarter than you at first spill – without an alternative PM.
It is hilarious!!!!!!!
True Blue
The main reason for the Liberal Party getting a new leader would primarily be due to the current leader’s inability to manage either the politics of government or the economic/social policies that are core government business.
The party of business, needs a manager, Tony is no such thing.
[Clearly Gina has limited understanding …]
Yes that is my view – heard a long piece interview of her pontificating about things about 4 years ago – she was wrong about almost everything she said.
Abbott being PM is a lifestyle choice.
@MB/930
It seems I was way short on my prediction of $70/tonne for Iron Ore prices, but I think I agreed with Briefly that it may go even lower than that.
TBA
[ Why in Gods name would the Lib Party dump it’s leader for someone else 18 months out from an election? ]
Because the electorate have their baseball bats ready … the same ones they last used on Rudd … to deal with Abbott at the next election.
I can’t wait!
Rio & BHP will take an immediate hit but will squash all the smaller operations and take over their reserves.
[Why in Gods name would the Lib Party dump it’s leader for someone else 18 months out from an election?]
Some in the LNP might want to win that election.
I think Abbott must have taken the advice of some of his critics and cut himself loose from Credlin’s guidance.
Many were speculating what would happen if that occurred – I think that now we know.
[“He is a hopeless PM who clearly doesn’t have a clue and who is incrediy unpopular polling in Gillard territory, in addition he has promised to take proposals for tax reform and IR reform to the next election.”]
Did Labor Dump Rudd 1.0 18 months before the election?
Did Labor Dump Gillard 18 months for Rudd 2.0 18 months before an election?
Why in all that is Holy would they dump Abbott 18 months before an election then?
905
lizzie
She’s wagered her inheritance. It looks like she might lose it.
If they dumped him an election would come quicker, true enough.
Some might see that as the only real chance at a 2nd term. They might be right too.
WWP
The trouble with the Gina Rhineharts of this world, and some senior politicians as well, is that nobody ever tells them they are wrong.
Imagine a meeting with Gina and her underlings. Gina declares the earth is flat. Which one of her people is going to say “don’t be an idiot”
Gina says there is too much red tape and safety problems at Roy Hill are just a leftist union conspiracy. Who is going to say “no Gina. We have some issues we need to do something before someone is killed. It might delay the project for a month”
And Gina only ever meets like minded people, anybody with half a clue about how the world really works keeps right away. And proof of that? Barnaby Joyce.
@TBA/940
Abbott has sat on his arse for 18 months.
Oh good. Dastyari on Richo re his accusations in the senate this week says investigation should go all the way back to AWB.
[
TrueBlueAussie
Posted Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 8:09 pm | Permalink
….
Why in all that is Holy would they dump Abbott 18 months before an election then?
]
I agree; the voters will be much more satified if they can kick him out. Is it worth another 18 months of pain. Some say YES some say no.
Zoidy
I find predicting prices a bit like predicting election seat results but $70 does sound like being at the higher in the current market.
@MB/930
The iron ore minors are fighting over market share, thats how capitalism is supposed to work.
Instead of creating a cartel to keep prices high, they are keeping prices low to drive out competitors and increase market share, and maybe even increase demand as projects become more viable due to more affordable steel.
Eliminating competitors and increasing automation is also reducing wage costs.
BHP/RIO are aiming at costs of $25 per tonne, if it drops to $50 they still have a good profit margin.
[ If the new subs cost $20 billion to build in Australia, giving all the associated befits to the economy. ]
I’m actually not sure how that $20 Billion is derived? It may well be a measure of project cost, rather than development / acquisition cost. If it is then a substantial amount is already spent in OZ as long as repairs and sustainment are done here and not OS.
[ How much cheaper would the overseas subs need to be to contract the economic benefits of building here. ]
Dont know, but its not a calculation i would trust Treasury under Hockey to do.
[r Dump Gillard 18 months for Rudd 2.0 18 months before an election?
Why in all that is Holy would they dump Abbott 18 months before an election then?]
Well if labor had have dumped Gillard 18 months out, particularly for a third candidate they would have had a good chance of winning, maybe even with Rudd. It was stupid to dump PMs too close to an election.
But I hope they let hockey and Abbott fail at having a budget a second time before they look for someone better.
Abbotts only chance at this point is a really strong economy into the next elections making people forget what a dreadful PM he has been in every possible sense.