BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  2. “Feel like burning my party card.” – Sceptic@445

    You mean melting it…

    I dont think anyone really has much control over prices, there is more urgency in getting money from fossil fuel reserves before renewal’s drops and make them less viable.

  3. Puff TMD @ 402. They are my views as well.

    Shorten is doing a fine job. To my mind Labors best leader since Keating.

    I had intended voting for Albo. Shorten won me over in the first debate.

    I think Turnbull will move before the budget.

  4. [ I also applaud the intent to apply unpatentable physics to get around the commercial limitations and constraints of “patentable protein” chauvinism ]

    That’s an interesting aspect to this. 🙂 IF there is anything to it there is lot of potential for other interested research groups pretty much anywhere to try it, and variations. That could produce a lot more information about its validity or not in a shorter timescale.

    [ horsesarses of the Rupertoclypse. ]

    Ok, that one needs to go into the dictionary. 🙂

  5. [Neither. There was nothing but praise for Rudd until the lead up to the next challenge, when MPs felt they were no longer bound to protect him.]

    You have got to be on mind altering drugs that is absurd even by the absurd standards you set in this topic.

  7. BB @ 430

    I remember my fortunately only experience with Sydney shock jocks.

    I was there with a few other interstate colleagues setting up a new division.

    We had just jumped in a taxi to head out to dinner, when we caught the opening tirade of some shock jocks show.

    It was probably only 5 minutes but felt like an hour in which he invoked every minority group and easy target you could imagine in his fury.

    Coming from sweet little sheltered Adelaide, I sat there dumbfounded by what I was hearing.

    In my disbelief, shock and outrage I think all I could manage was a, ‘What a f###ing idiot.’

    Still to this day I can’t comprehend how people are taken in by this crap.

  8. WWP

    You’re welcome to use actual evidence to disprove what I’ve said. If white anting of Rudd went on prior to his first challenge, you should be able to find heaps of articles to support your claim.

  10. 451

    The certification is just to show that there is no pig products, blood, alcohol non-halal or other product that is not halal. without it it might be possible that there was some additive in the chocolate that was derived from pigs or blood or other such product.

  11. [I dont think anyone really has much control over prices, there is more urgency in getting money from fossil fuel reserves before renewal’s drops and make them less viable.]

    With current prices they’d have to be either already accessed or very accessible reserves or they are not going to be touched until prices get back to $100. If prices never get back to $100 it will show those with the ‘stranded assets’ stuff over the last couple of years were largely correct.

  12. [With the NSW election only a couple of short weeks away and pre-poll voting kicking off on Monday it has become clear that the selling off of the NSW electricity network is the hot issue.

    Privatisation was a hot issue in the recent QLD election which saw a Coalition government booted out of office after just one term, despite the huge swing towards the Coalition in the previous election.

    In NSW, Mike Baird wants to sell off one asset that is used the virtually everyone living in NSW, our power network.]

    http://wixxyleaks.com/the-power-and-the-passion-mike-bairds-plan-to-privatise-the-nsw-power-network/

  13. Further to #449 …or perhaps that should be “current horsesarses of the IPApocalypse”.
    I hate it when the apposite thought strikes just after I hit the post comment – given that Crikey doesn’t have an edit function.

  15. [You’re welcome to use actual evidence to disprove what I’ve said. If white anting of Rudd went on prior to his first challenge, you should be able to find heaps of articles to support your claim.]

    Yeah and you still wouldn’t believe them. I give up it would make more sense to find Frank and argue with him.

  16. Shorten won me over with the NDIS. That was a pretty impressive policy achievement from a junior portfolio that traditionally went nowhere.

    That took a lot of smarts and political nous. He’s a quiet achiever with a view on the long game. Not the most personable or charismatic leader, but then I prefer substance over style in a politician.

  17. [roger bottomley

    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:18 pm | Permalink

    I think Turnbull will move before the budget.
    ]

    It will need to be quick then or it could be a case of,

    [‘What budget!’]

  21. WWP

    [Yeah and you still wouldn’t believe them..]

    Cop out. You can’t find them because they don’t exist, and you’re too scared that you’re wrong to even look.

    Thanks for playing.

  22. Barney in Saigon: Alan Jones, Ray Hadley et al seem to have a big following among Sydney taxi drivers. Also in small shops.

  23. [John Reidy

    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    I reckon the Chasers should start a rumor that VB has just become Halal certified.
    ]

    It would be apart from the alcohol bit.

  25. Re Halal

    Basically it is for the benefit of exporting to certain Muslim markets that seek the assurance of certification. It doesn’t matter if the particular foodstuff would not normally use ingredients that need to be produced according to halal practices – the halal certification provides assurance that either the food uses halal certified ingredients or has no ingredients that would require halal certification.

    It’s a simple export-driven process that has been twisted into an ignorant hate exercise.

  26. [Steve777

    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Barney in Saigon: Alan Jones, Ray Hadley et al seem to have a big following among Sydney taxi drivers. Also in small shops.
    ]

    I knew there was a reason for my taxi phobia, here I was thinking that I was just a cheap bastard.
    🙂

  30. I am totally gobsmacked that 47% of the nation think these buffoons are worth voting for, even if this is a first-term govt.

  32. R H Wombat @474: Nah, even 2GB listeners would pick that. Try Halal toilet paper.

    I wouldn’t be so sure. If a rumour took hold that VB had or was seeking Halal certification, I reckon Sydney commercial radio’s airwaves and Daily Telecrap letters and comments would be buzzing with calls to boycott VB.

  33. tpof – Most leaks in Canberra don’t come from politicians at the top, they come from underlings who hear the gossip. Politicians leave a big meeting, first thing they do is tell their staff what happened. After that, the leak could come from anywhere.

  34. [confessions

    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Try Halal toilet paper.

    Jesus. Almost snorted a gulp of wine!
    ]

    Nah, it doesn’t exist. They have a more eco-friendly version.

    It’s called, ‘your left hand.’

  40. 468

    That makes sense. A significant proportion of gelatin is pig gelatin and it is the sort of thing confectioners use is some products.

  41. Vic @488:
    Kabinettsminister unterstützen weg von Supergedankenluftblase des Hockey.
    Buffoonery always sounds more appropriate in German.

  42. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 34m 34 minutes ago
    On a positive note…Wayne Errington (Howard bio coauthor) & my biography on Tony Abbott is coming along nicely. Should be out in 2016.]

    Hopefully in time for the next election.

  44. @ 468, 490

    Yes, gelatin is one of the primary concerns when it comes to halal certification, because it’s one of the things that people who don’t have a habit of reading ingredient lists tend to overlook that can also potentially include ingredients that are considered haraam by Muslims.

  45. These characters talking about boycotting halal certified products might like to get stuck into McDonalds.

    Looking at the McDonalds Australian website here and searching on “halal” produces

    [We have a number of Halal certified restaurants. Only those items listed on the
    certificate in the front counter area and drive thru booth at our restaurants serving]

    So McDonalds along with Cadbury etc etc is part of the Muslim jihadist conspiracy.

  47. [rhwombat
    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 10:14 pm | PERMALINK
    ‘fess@492:
    That should inform the post mortem, but I doubt that PvO will have a seller.]

    Yes, they really should be writing faster so the book will be released before TA becomes a postscript in Australian political history.

  49. [That should inform the post mortem, but I doubt that PvO will have a seller.]

    Agree. And the way things are going, it’s just going to be another pile on onto the burning embers of Abbott’s leadership.

  50. When there is a margin of error of about 3% in a poll, it makes no sense to quote a value to one decimal place. It is claiming a degree of precision that just doesn’t exist.

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