BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 54
1 … 12 13 14 … 54

  2. Tom hits on a good point, so called jail rehabilitation programs are highly ineffective hence many homeless people often with mental or drug related issues are unable to cope so yes they do commit petty crime in order to be returned to jail.

    Worst still many when released are given a short term period of time at certain homeless shelters then are shifted out, in many cases they are either back in jail in weeks or worst still often die from an overdose or suicide, the terrible truth is once people get onto the cycle, its extremely difficult to change their circumstances.

    I’m clearly no fan of the NGO sector but on this issue they have been left to pick up where government has vacated.

  5. @ Jolyon Wagg, 593

    At the risk of damning with faint praise…you appear slightly less lacking in clues than swamprat.

    Aside from the issue of criminal justice, I think you’ll find I’m more or less a garden variety social democrat.

    Interesting to hear that Lazarus has made a move. Somehow I doubt my own state’s contribution to the PUP camp, Zhenya Wang, will follow suit (he seems to me to be a fairly silent puppet for Palmer).

  6. [604
    William Bowe

    Pretty high, you’d think. Not that I claim any particular expertise in knowing what makes the likes of Clive Palmer tick.]

    Is Fairfax winnable for Labor?

  9. @ briefly, 606

    The margin in 2010 was 6.95% (LNP vs ALP) – and that election was far from a good result for Labor in QLD. I’d certainly think it’s eminently winnable for Labor.

  11. @ Barney, 610

    Perhaps he’s picking up on the implication that the reason the Liberals are so keen on shifting the Aboriginals out of their remote towns is because Gina wants the land for her mining operations?

  13. [Arrnea Stormbringer

    Posted Friday, March 13, 2015 at 2:55 am | Permalink

    @ Barney, 610

    Perhaps he’s picking up on the implication that the reason the Liberals are so keen on shifting the Aboriginals out of their remote towns is because Gina wants the land for her mining operations?
    ]

    She’ll have to blow a lot harder if that’s her desire.

  16. Morning all. RIP Terry Pratchett. Meanwhile we still have Tony Abbott. Not a good start to the day. Maybe he will not say anything mean or stupid today? No, silly me. At least tomorrow is Saturday. Have a good day all.

  17. Morning bludgers

    Off to a breakfast this morning, but as reported by William, Glen Lazarus has quit PUP. First bit of news off the ranks this morning on the radio.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Another difficulty for the government to cope with in the Senate as Lazarus quits PUP.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/glenn-lazarus-quits-palmer-united-party-20150312-142se9.html
    Maybe Andrew Robb has done some good with the China FTA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-scores-most-favoured-nation-provisions-in-fta-with-china-20150312-141w3o.html
    Fairfax covers Hockey vs Fairfax.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/joe-hockey-defamation-trial-treasurer-watches-dissection-of-his-own-crucifixion-20150312-142lr8.html
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/joe-hockey-defamation-trial-crucify-suggestion-ridiculous-says-herald-editorinchief-darren-goodsir-20150312-141zyj.html
    Cabinet ministers are scurrying away from Hockey’s thought bubble n super.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cabinet-ministers-back-away-from-joe-hockeys-super-thought-bubble-20150312-1428ut.html
    And Greg Jericho explains with typical thoroughness why it is such a harebrained proposition.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/mar/12/allowing-first-home-buyers-to-access-their-superannuation-is-another-harebrained-hockey-idea
    Peter Wicks looks at Baird’s proposal to sell the poles and wires.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/the-power-and-the-passion-mike-bairds-plan-to-privatise-the-nsw-power-network/
    Grattan on Friday looks at another week laden with gaffes.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-abbott-government-suffers-self-inflicted-pain-in-an-untidy-week-38719
    The 26 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/12/the-twenty-eight-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-217/
    Stephen Koukoulas – tobacco consumption in Australia continues to plummet after the introduction of plain packaging.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/tobacco-consumption-in-australia-continues-to-plummet-in-the-wake-of-the-plain-packaging-laws.html

  20. Section 2 . . .

    There are still problems within PM&C over wage negotiations.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/prime-ministers-department-moves-to-avoid-industrial-action-20150312-1425aj.html
    James Massola asks exactly when “good government” starts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/good-government-starts-when-exactly-20150312-141pzt.html
    How to raise a bully.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/eight-ways-you-may-be-raising-your-child-to-be-a-bully-20150311-141qa3.html
    We should take the UN report seriously.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/united-nations-report-is-a-human-rights-performance-review-that-we-should-take-seriously-20150312-141rxw.html
    Did Abbott hang up on Andrews or did he have another Mark Riley moment?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/premier-daniel-andrews-says-request-for-meeting-with-tony-abbott-met-with-silence-20150312-142bsj.html
    “View from the Street” looks at the stupid things politicians say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-government-ministers-say-the-darndest-things-20150312-142ifp.html

  21. Section 3 . . .

    Alan Moir shows us Abbott’s own lifestyle choices. His depiction years ago of Abbott as the pugnacious Popeye has proved to be prescient.

    Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s position on aborigines.

    Dark work from Mark Knight.

    Abbott’s tumbleweed nation by David Pope.

    Middle East stuff from David Rowe. I can’t get this one.

  22. BK

    [Middle East stuff from David Rowe. I can’t get this one]
    A bit obscure alright.

    Wondering what the balloons were about I looked up the ISIS flag and the balloons feature the central round bit of their flag. So I assume it is some reference to them carrying off our young.

  23. Is Lazarus likely to vote differently to PUP or is he opposed to the key sticking points like uni fees and out of pocket health expenses?

  25. The Rowe is dark. I suggest is also about the emptiness of the West.

    The central term is ‘jew’.

    I can’t get that.

  29. Poroti

    I think the Rowe cartoon relates to the Israeli minister or former minister who wants to expel all Arab/Muslims (those born and raised in Israel and whos families have lived there 4000 years) who support right of return to their homeland from Israel.

    I assume the balloons are their only travel method. The raised hands in the ghetto I assume are Palestinians.

  30. Boerwar +DTT

    Check out the Isis flag. It is Rowe’s balloon. The central bit in Arabic does look like “jew” in english.

  32. Perth seems to be on track to get some heavy rain from the cyclone.

    I take it heavy rain is unusual this time year.

    I hope it arrives in the nicest possible way.

  33. I wonder if the current Senate holds the record for the greatest number of independents (or parties with only one Senator)?

  34. Apparently Abbott is currently in Melbourne but is too busy to meet the Victorian Premier in person to discuss the E-W road tunnel. However he has enough time to attend a Liberal Party fund raiser.

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott will be guest of honour at a Liberal Party fundraising event to be held at the legendary East Melbourne penthouse often touted as the city’s most valuable apartment.

    Salta Properties founder Sam Tarascio has offered his lavish Clarendon Street penthouse to the Liberal Party Melbourne’s benefit arm, Enterprise 500 Victoria, which is selling tickets to the function for $5000 a head.

    As well as the ministerial meet, guests can explore what is considered one of the country’s most luxurious apartments.]

    http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/the-prime-minister-the-dj-and-melbournes-playboy-mansion-this-week-in-private-property-20150312-141szr.html

  35. #633

    Last time we had 8 non-majors at all was 1971–1974. (which did include 5 DLP)

    So 8 groups of 1 is a record.

  36. citizen

    He’ll have to do something ‘political’ to justify claiming trav exp. I wondered what excuse he would find.

  40. Greeks still demanding gifts –

    [ Germans Furious After Varoufakis/Tsipras Admit “Greece Will Never Repay Its Debts”

    …Bloomberg reported……that the Greek ambassador in Berlin made an official protest late Tuesday to the German Foreign Ministry over comments made by Schaeuble.

    …And then, as Reuters reports, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has described his country as the most bankrupt in the world and said European leaders knew all along that Athens would never repay its debts, in blunt comments that sparked a backlash in the German media on Tuesday.

    …*TSIPRAS: IT’S VITAL FOR GREECE’S PUBLIC DEBT TO BE RESTRUCTURED

    … Bild daily …..editorial comment urging European leaders to stop providing Greece with ever more financial support.

    “The Greek government is behaving as if everyone must dance to its tune. But there must be an end to this madness. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/germans-furious-after-varoufakistsipras-admit-greece-will-never-repay-its-debts

  42. [ Lazarus exit tied to wife’s firing

    Palmer United Party Glen Lazarus’ exit from the party stemmed from a decision by PUP to terminate his wife’s employment.

    In a statement, Palmer United Party national director Peter Burke confirmed he had forwarded a letter to Tess Lazarus earlier this week, terminating her employment.

    “This was done primarily because she failed to comply with the terms of her employment,” Mr Burke said.

    “Senator Lazarus’ resignation followed soon after, the reason being self-evident.”

    Mr Lazarus, a former rugby league international, announced his decision on his Facebook page overnight. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/3/13/politics/lazarus-exit-tied-wifes-firing

  43. So much for hockey’s brain fart –

    [ Hockey’s super plan risks $31bn budget hit

    …The Australian Financial Review reports that the internal PwC study found between $500 million and $1.1bn would be lost every year in the near-term and potentially $2.1bn annually come 2049 given the government taxes earnings on super balances at 15 per cent.

    “It’s obviously a relatively significant number and in policy terms, is not a small number to take out of the budget annually,” PwC partner Paul Abbey told the AFR.

    The analysis assumed any such scheme would be limited to people below the age of 35, with as many as half of the eligible pool opting to withdraw $25,000 over a 10-year period.

    The super debate was ignited by the treasurer over the weekend and while Prime Minister Tony Abbott has welcomed an open debate, the government has said it has no intention to make any changes at this stage. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/3/13/tax/hockeys-super-plan-risks-31bn-budget-hit

  44. dave

    Sounds like we have three different voices here: the Treasurer, the Pm and ?Frydenberg.

    [The super debate was ignited by the treasurer over the weekend and while Prime Minister Tony Abbott has welcomed an open debate, the government has said it has no intention to make any changes at this stage. ]

  45. “This was done primarily because she failed to comply with the terms of her employment,” Mr Burke said.

    “Senator Lazarus’ resignation followed soon after, the reason being self-evident.”

    Riiiiiight. I believe that explanation, really.

    You can’t resign because you’re fired, well ok your wife is fired!

  48. lizzie@644

    dave

    Sounds like we have three different voices here: the Treasurer, the Pm and ?Frydenberg.

    They are doing that quite a bit Lizzie – such would have seen Labor torn apart.

  50. lizzie

    Just caught the last 5 minutes of the Shorten interview with Faine. Agree that Shorten did well under the constant barrage from Faine. In some respects Faine did Shorten a favour, by putting pressure on him

Comments Page 13 of 54
1 … 12 13 14 … 54

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *