Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.
Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.
Good Morning
@danielhurstbne: Lazarus story update: PUP director Peter Burke says upheaval followed party decision to terminate Lazarus’s wife Tess http://t.co/YtxzNRz3wf
There goes the 2nd Budget. Also Mr Pyne is in big trouble with his education “reforms”.
Its a double whammy for the budget. More oxygen taken from the selling of the need for all the cuts as Abbott and Hockey see it as a new soap opera opens up.
dave
I was trying to remember the phrase Abbott always used against Labor. Dysfunctional? Shambles? I know illegitimate came into it somewhere.
“@latikambourke: Senator @SenatorLazarus on @2GB873 “I woke up with a lot of text msgs, and a lot of missed calls.’ Says Senate colleagues supportive.”
“@redneckninja: Clive Palmer to speak with @PatrickCondren on 4BC after 8:30am Brisbane time on resignation of Glenn Lazarus from PUP”
Oh dear the callback on ABC is all negative for Labor and Bill Shorten
Middle East stuff from David Rowe. I can’t get this one
I think that it’s about young people from the West being seduced and carried off by Daesh.
The symbol on the balloon is from the Daesh flag, with the Arabic writing being part of the Muslim profession of faith (appropriated and misused by Daesh). The hands raised are despairing parents / uncomprehending citizens of the West. The horizon / background shows Western cities, including the arch of the Sydney Harbour bridge.
[ Greece Passes Law To Plunder Pension Funds
…Bloomberg reports,
Cash reserves of pension funds and other public entities kept in Bank of Greece deposit accounts can be fully invested in Greek sovereign notes, according to amendment to be submitted in parliament, country’s finance ministry says in e-mailed statement.
Cash reserves can be used for repos, reverse repos, buy and sell-back, sell and buy-back transactions
Pension funds, public entities will be able to claim damages from Greek state in case of overdue repayment, partial repayment
Pension funds are not obliged to transfer their reserves to the Bank of Greece, according to finance ministry statement ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-12/greece-passes-law-plunder-pension-funds
victoria
I agree it’s good for Shorten to defend himself well against such attacks, but I thought Faine went overboard with (as Shorten said) three questions in one.
I was thinking, as I listened, that if I had to face that sort of brainstrain every day, I’d get out of the game.
The Coalition ministers, like Barnaby or Cormann, seem to cope by talking through the interviewer adn only answering with mantras.
victoria
When the trolls knew that Shorten was on, they probably lined up.
@joshgnosis: iiNet and TPG combined will have 1.7 million customers, hurling them past Optus to be the second-largest ISP. http://t.co/5jUMbHELfC
This could be interesting. Hopefully we will see the price of internet plans come down as a result.
lizzie
Faine reckons he has pages of texts all negative for Shorten
@abcnewsSydney: #GrandPrix chairman says @mikebairdMP’s #F1 plan is ill-advised http://t.co/y517UYJTKS #nswpol #nswvotes
Abbott on screen now
I thought Jon Faine went quite easy on Shorten, allowing him a lot of airtime but did ask the right questions. Good to know him picking Shorten’s mind.
The first lady to call in sound like a Lib plant or just someone who parrot the same thing our resident troll says.
I think my views are consistent that third caller guy by the name of “Jules”.
“What hope do Aboriginal people have if even the the Prime Minister doesn’t get it.”
Fred Chaney
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/lifestyle-choices-speech-presages-return-to-brutal-past-20150312-141q3l.html
“@joshgnosis: So it sounds like the PM is taking credit for the Vodafone call centre which was announced by Gillard.”
Raaraa
Could you imagine Shorten suggesting that Labor would end negative gearing?
@political_alert: Statement from PUP Leader Clive Palmer #auspol http://t.co/8txQPvVGTp
Raaraa
[I thought Jon Faine went quite easy on Shorten, allowing him a lot of airtime but did ask the right questions]
When an interviewer asks 3 questions in one statement and then interrupts before the pollie has answered any, with another on a different subject, I regard that as aggressive.
victoria@667
It’s something I’m agreeable to, but I think there are a significant number of Labor backers who don’t want to see that happen.
Personally, I think it can be compromised with a cap on negative gearing.
lizzie
Agreed. If faine asks the questions, he should at least allow Shorten the courtesy of answering them.
Admittedly Faine went hard yesterday when he interviewed Liberal senator Birmingham
Raaraa
No side of politics would dare to end negative gearing in fhe current climate
lizzie@652
Yeah, they would be great to fire back at him.
Some good ones from his 2013 Budget reply Speech – all now in tatters –
[ Let me be clear, there is now a budget emergency.
With the coalition, you could trust government to save.
Should the coalition win the election, there will be no nasty surprises and there will be no lame excuses.
No surprises and no excuses.
The coalition’s plan has two objectives: first, to take the budget pressure off Australian households; and second, to strengthen our economy so that, over time, there is more to go around for everyone.
By cutting tax and regulation we will boost productivity.
Within three years, the coalition’s NBN will deliver broadband speeds at least five times faster than the current average for $60 billion less than Labor’s version.
It will be part of a foreign policy that is focused on Jakarta, not Geneva.
All these commitments are affordable and deliverable.
We will deliver them in our first term of government, if we win, and we will provide all the funding details after the pre-election fiscal statement is released.
You want a grown-up government like the ones that John Howard and—yes—Bob Hawke too used to run.
As soon as people know there is a government in this country with an economic strategy to build the country rather than just a political strategy to save its own skin, confidence will start to return to our economy.
We want taxes that are lower, simpler and fairer and will take proposals for further tax reform to the following election.
It is no way to run the country and it is no way for adult leaders to behave.
Again, a coalition government will seek a mandate at the subsequent election for any proposed changes.
One of the best ways to ensure that governments do not make mistakes is to have a proper cabinet process.
That is how Bob Hawke and John Howard ran their governments but that is not how government is run now.
My ministers will not need to learn how to be a good government because they have been one before.
I am offering what should be normal: careful, collegial, consultative, straightforward government that says what it means and does what it says. ]
Re Lizzie @652:
The term ‘illegitimate’ was often used gainst the Gillard Government, starting early (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-lets-it-rip-but-the-spray-is-too-ferocious-20100910-154v1.html):
[…Joe Hockey, had his turn: “This is an illegitimate government. It is the first time, certainly since World War II, that a party – either Liberal or Labor – with the fewer seats forms government…]
They tried to push this meme, conveniently overlooking the centuries-old principle that Government is formed by the party or coalition that commands a majority of seats in the lower House.
I checked the meaning of ‘illegitimate’ in the LNP dictionary:
[Illegitimate
adjective:
(of Government) any Government other than a Liberal – National Coalition Government.]
@GuardianAus: While Tony Abbott was busy romancing the Liberal party base, voters moved on http://t.co/Q8eHiMhlI6
One of the problems Labor always faces is that there is no left wing equivalent of the right wing shock jocks.
The left think that they have to prove they’re ‘objective’ by going in just as hard (or harder) on Labor interviewees as they do on Liberal ones.
The right don’t think they have to even pretend to be objective.
So Labor doesn’t get the foot rub interviews the Liberals do.
Steve 777 @ 656
I think you’re right. I was misled by the ‘jews’ reference but I was slowly working towards the conclusion you reached.
[guytaur
Posted Friday, March 13, 2015 at 9:24 am | PERMALINK
@political_alert: Statement from PUP Leader Clive Palmer #auspol http://t.co/8txQPvVGTp ]
Clive has an interesting take on parliament – it’s not the number of seats you hold but whether you win the battle of ideas. Clive certainly has plenty of ideas but now even fewer bums on seats.
VALE SIR TERRY PRATCHETT. I AM TERRY/VIMES/DEATH. AND SO IS MY WIFE.
“@EricNapper: Tonight #NSWVotes Leaders Debate. Hosted by @CUhlmann. Live on #ABCNews24 from 7.30 pm.”
dave @ 673
Pure Gold!!!!
Until people like Fred Chaney stop saying in articles that Abbott’s committment to indigenous people is obvious and “he engages well with indigenous people” and admit that they and the indigenous people were fooled by a devious con artist, we’re not getting anywhere.
They can say all the critical stuff they like later in the article but a bit of “mea culpa” would be nice for the rest of us who have seen through Abbott from the beginning and been derided for questioning his bona fides.
This applies especially for the professional media, and might be one of the few things they could do which might (ever so slightly) re-establish their credibility.
I think Shorten should have told Faine that he would start saving money by not paying opinionated loudmouths $300,000 for a few hours work at the ABC.
Senator Lazarus has made strong statements in regard to supporting the RET.
Does this mean the RET is safe now?
Sohar
the Friday wrap about to start on ABC with John Roskam…..
guytaur @ 675
Thanks for posting.
That is one of the more perceptive pieces written by Katharine Murphy – she has shot a few blanks in recent times. It was also interesting about the challenges facing Bill Shorten. It will certainly involve all his skill in managing the conference outcomes. It’s a good thing that Labor will get its conference sorted this year and can fine-tune its positions thereafter.
ajm
[Until people like Fred Chaney stop saying in articles that Abbott’s committment to indigenous people is obvious and “he engages well with indigenous people” and admit that they and the indigenous people were fooled by a devious con artist, we’re not getting anywhere.]
Exactly my thoughts. They all do a little bow of homage before they start telling the truth. I’d say TA appears to ‘engage well’ because he sits and nods and says little.
Dan Gulberry@614
A devastating loss.
Am I selfish that the second thought on this is on all the books that might never get released? I’m in the middle of the Long Earth series.
Glad he died peacefully though. He was a big advocate for euthanasia.
Victoria@685,
Thank you for that exciting information, but I’ll stick with KB on SEN.
Barry Cassidy:
[Tony Abbott doesn’t have a way with words. Words have their way with him.
In his own self-deprecating way, he has often conceded the point, most spectacularly when he told 7.30 to trust only “the considered, prepared, scripted remark”.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-13/cassidy-my-word-abbott-needs-to-get-his-rhetoric-right/6309444
i’ve been looking for posts contradicting the claim yesterday that Rudd wasn’t attacked at all until the Funerary 2012 challenge, but work calls and in the meantime I enjoyed this little gem:
[MTBW
Posted Monday, December 12, 2011 at 2:15 pm | PERMALINK
confessions
Why is Shorten giving a press conference?
Because he is a media tart and full of his own importance.]
Sohar
Lol!
lizzie@669
Shorten was aware of this. He said WTTE to allow him to answer his barrage of 3 questions. Faine did allow him to address each point eventually.
Confessions@690,
So is Cassidy saying that Tony isn’t really lying, he simply doesn’t have control over the words that come out of his mouth.
“@political_alert: Education Minister Christopher Pyne will hold a doorstop interview in Adelaide at 11.15am (CST) to discuss higher ed/Glenn Lazarus #auspol”
It appears Fraudband now has a price for fibre to the premise, we’ll sort of
[For those who still wish to get the full fibre connection, NBN Co has been developing a fibre-on-demand product launched on Friday as Technology Choice.
ZDNet first reported last week that the product was due this month.
NBN Co’s chief customer officer John Simon told ZDNet that there will be two products: An Area Switch, and an Individual Switch.
“It enables an individual or a consortium of individuals … even councils to make that choice, and they would contribute to the incremental upgrade,” he said.
The costs will need to be determined on a case-by-case basis, but Simon flagged that the average cost for the fibre-to-the-premises rollout had been determined to be over AU$4,300 per premises.]
http://zd.net/18fPtsD
I enjoyed this part of Murphy’s piece.
[You might think a conservative candidate like Abbott, who led his party to an almost-victory in 2010 and an actual one in 2013, might be “their man”. He’s actually not. Abbott’s something of an outrider. One of his main problems in my view (apart from not being very competent) is the contortions he’s performed to try and seek approval from the powerbrokers and the backroom backers. This not entirely convincing transaction feeds his authenticity and trust problem.
I wrote at length about this recently, so I won’t seek to repeat that analysis here. But let’s just note now that Abbott’s in full-scale base romancing. The excessive takedown of the Human Rights Commission president is one example. The ramping up of the national security narrative, another. His throwaway line this week about “lifestyle choices” for people in remote communities is another.
The problem with a closed conversation with the Liberal party base (or a powerful element of it, in any case), is it tends to drag you way off the political centre, particularly if you are … how can I put this politely … a bit of a blunt instrument.]
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/13/tony-abbott-romancing-liberal-party-base-voters-moved-on?CMP=soc_568
victoria@671
Faine goes hard on everybody and as a result, each side thinks he’s biased for the other side.
victoria@672
That’s the truth.
[A 500 Club function for a reported 300 guests at the Premier’s office for $100 a head lost money, Premier Colin Barnett has claimed.
The 500 Club, a longstanding group that raises money for the Liberal Party, held its Christmas cocktail party last year at the Premier’s taxpayer-funded office and Cabinet rooms at old Hale House.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/26635012/liberal-fund-raisers-used-hale-house/