BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 54
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  1. [Baird bus gate-crashes Foley presser again-driving past & honking. “Baird wouldn’t sending bus if he wasn’t worried” says @AlboMP #nswvotes]

    Albo would be right on the money for mine.

    I got polled last night it was automated and all done by pressing a number on your phone.

    Does anyone know who does that kind of polling.

  2. CTar1

    I agree with your assessment but you never really know.

    Labor is playing hard on the issue of polls and electricity being sold.

  3. Considering how thoroughly rotten NSW Labor had become it would be a miracle if they won. They deserved to be tossed 3 elections before they were. I suppose an indicator of how utterly useless the Libs must have been.

  4. CTar1

    Yes he is everywhere. Do you live in NSW?

    Cameron Murphy son of Lionel looks like he will win my seat in East Hills.

    The Lib who holds the seat now is on a margin of .06% though I have never met him he looks like he may be a one termer.

  5. Barney @763

    I am not sure where you get the idea that “In science it normal to deal with at least 3 significant figures, so a percentage less than 100% would be expressed with the first decimal place”

    My experience is that in science you deal with the minimum number of significant figures that your measurements contain.

    The point of a sample is to make an inference about the population. If our sample has a margin of error of 3, we cannot make an inference about the population with an accuracy to one decimal place.

  6. MTBW

    [Do you live in NSW?]

    ACT, but if you watch any sort of local news here you get a lot of NSW coverage due to the broadcast area.

  7. I think the Liberal internal polling must be dire. I agree Baird looks worried. Compare today to when he did that tweet reading video.

    Also picking a fight with Melbourne when you know how long the F1 contracts run has to be desperation.

  8. poroti

    [ I would love if Labor did win.]

    Foley has been everywhere and considering that he was only endorsed a few months back I think he is doing a great job.

    He strikes me as being a hard worker and not up himself.

  9. “@ABCNews24: Palmer United Leader @CliveFPalmer to speak on #abcnews24 in 15mins following the resignation of Senator Glenn Lazarus #auspol”

  10. [Friday, March 13, 2015 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

    bis @ 794

    I thought Rummel’s comment was tongue in cheek.
    ]

    Sorry Rum, reading your subsequent comments I can see your tongue.

    But my anger was mainly directed the cowards who hide their racist and xenophobic views behind such campaigns.

    Who do these campaigns hurt?

    Australian producers and manufacturers who are crying out for new export markets also denying them access to a growing local demand.

    Australia itself as a tolerant and accepting country. (Both major parties have been having a red hot go at this one over the last 15 years or so.)

    Food labelling is rightly considered important in allowing consumers to make informed choices in what they eat. It allows people with health, cultural or ethical concerns to select food in line with these concerns.

    If you choose to follow this campaign just remember, many of the foods you now eat and drink conform to this standard. Say goodbye to fresh fruit and vegetables, eggs and of course water.

  11. Baird’s ‘big event’ Task Force is a real joke bearing in mind that Victoria has an option to extend.

    What’s he going after – The Adelaide Festival, the Melbourne Cup, goat racing and dog shows?

  12. CTar1

    When CanDo was first elected and he was in slash mode he saw fit to throw a stack of money to the Barcaldine Goat Races .

    With CanDo gorrrrrn I’m sure they’d be up for it..

  13. gt

    [ is Sir Humphrey courageous given Sydney Traffic]

    Yep. And it would have to be 3 days so practice and qualifying could be done.

  14. In the car today I heard Will Hagen (Motoring expert?) chuckling over the idea that the Grand Prix could use the Sydney Harbour bridge. “It’s not even flat”, he almost said, “and the access to central Sydney is diabolical.”

    Maybe I’ve got it all upside-down?

  15. 764
    Atticus

    The Oz version of The Guardian is worth it for Greg Jericho’s stuff alone. Some seriously useful politico-economic ammo in his articles.

  16. [rummel
    Posted Friday, March 13, 2015 at 1:49 pm | PERMALINK
    As an atheist, i support 100% religious dogma free food in Australia…]

    Our little four footed friend likes the idea of free dog food!

  17. I don’t think that freedom of religion is a value worth espousing at all. On the other hand freedom from religion ……..

  18. [Diogenes
    Posted Friday, March 13, 2015 at 2:16 pm | PERMALINK
    Palmer United Party has to be the greatest misnomer since the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea]

    Not to mention the Liberal Party of Australia

  19. OK, so a jew, a muslim and a roman catholic are sitting in a rowboat…

    …and this is what he said to himself:

    ‘I once ate a kosher bagel, so now I am a jew.

    Then I ate some halal Cadbury’s chocolate so now I am a jewish muslim.

    But I do not eat meat on Fridays.

    So now I am a roman catholic jewish muslim.’

  20. sydney F1

    try again they would need at least 7days for prep time fences to erected etc.would be nightmare

    singapore start 10 to 14 days out from it GP

  21. guytaur

    Closing Habour bridge would be a fantastic idea, that & having a catch net between the Pylons to catch airborne F1 cars as they take off from the hump in middle of the bridge will look spectacular.

  22. guytaur@814

    I think the Liberal internal polling must be dire. I agree Baird looks worried. Compare today to when he did that tweet reading video.

    Also picking a fight with Melbourne when you know how long the F1 contracts run has to be desperation.

    I would have though offering to close the Harbour Bridge to make way for a silly car race would piss off more than a few voters.

    He must be nearly as nuts as Abbott.

  23. I think they should keep the bridge and the rest of the F1 track open to regular motorists while the race is on. That would be a spectacle (although the trauma centres would be kept very busy).

  24. People have been wondering –

    [ Paul Grimes sacked over lack of ‘strong, mutual confidence’ with Barnaby Joyce

    Agriculture department secretary ‘terminated’ after long-running saga involving changes to Hansard by minister

    …Grimes is the second agriculture department head to leave under the Abbott government after the Coalition sacked his predecessor, Andrew Metcalfe, upon taking office.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/13/paul-grimes-sacked-over-lack-of-strong-mutual-confidence-with-barnaby-joyce

  25. Crikey has an article that reckons the F1 Prix costs Victorian taxpayers about $60 million per year, being generous in estimating benefits.
    That’s about 3 high schools per year that could be built with that money according to Crikey.

  26. Roger Miller@836

    Can they go over the Bridge and then back around through the tunnel, chuck a uie in North Sydney?

    AS long as no one mentions the selling of poles & wires….cannot have people wondering why the buyer will pay $20 Billion and then not want to bleed NSW dry in charges out to eternity.

    Its all *Look over there*

  27. Baird’s election promises of money for this and money for that keep coming. I’ve not seen any tally which relates promised expenditure to estimated income from privatisation. Certainly the government’s biggest boosters, Murdoch’s DT and Channel 7 are not keeping one.

    Do more and bigger promises suggest a feeling of extreme nervousness in the Baird camp?

  28. Did Grimes walk with a little push or was he shoved out the door?

    [THE head of the Department of Agriculture is stepping down over a breakdown of relations with Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce.

    PAUL Grimes will quit after agreeing with a report from the prime minister’s department about a loss of “mutual confidence” between the pair.

    “A relationship of strong mutual confidence between the secretary and myself was not a realistic prospect,” Mr Joyce said in a statement.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/agri-boss-quits-over-joyce-relations/story-e6frfku9-1227261459905

  29. Fredex, it is a classic case of giving a boost to a few businesses using taxpayers money. Hotels, cafes, restaurants, the casino and probably brothels would be enjoying a boost in trade. For the rest of us it is a pain.

    Yesterday, I overheard a lady on the tram ringing various places for accommodation asking for an extra three days. Her husband was in hospital and had to stay another three days unexpectedly. The poor women must have been an out-of-towner and was getting rather desperate as there was ‘no room in the inn’.

  30. How about they run the track through Vaucluse ,Double Bay Pt. Piper ?

    The locals would love the chance to meet all their fellow Sydneysiders that they would normally never meet 🙂

  31. poroti

    [The locals would love the chance to meet all their fellow Sydneysiders that they would normally never meet]

    And on Monday they could get their gardeners in to pick up the bourbon & coke and beer cans off their front lawns.

    😀

  32. citizen@843

    Baird’s election promises of money for this and money for that keep coming. I’ve not seen any tally which relates promised expenditure to estimated income from privatisation. Certainly the government’s biggest boosters, Murdoch’s DT and Channel 7 are not keeping one.

    Do more and bigger promises suggest a feeling of extreme nervousness in the Baird camp?

    As you allude to – no published cost benefit analysis – which are only required of Labor.

    ….apparently.

  33. dave

    That news about Grimes being sacked is on ABC Rural website – but not the main site, not even under “National” or “Just In”.
    Strange, looks like the ABC reckons only the farmers should be interested in the news.

  34. rummel @784
    Reminds me of when I was 15 – I would eat ham sandwiches on Friday to insult as many dogmatists as possible!

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