BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 54
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  1. Why do you think the Greeks are doing this? Now and not at the start?

    Note this is not Syriza but a court saying the government can do so.

    If the government goes ahead it’s telling the Germans here is a cost of default.

    Why are you consulting Boerwar on the Eurozone crisis? Boerwar is an expert on macroeconomics in the same way that the albino monk in The Da Vinci Code is an expert on Catholicism.

  2. victoria
    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 12:05 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    Yep Rudd should be anointed a saint.——– attack the person always not policies

    as for Mutt – and including Jessica!!! it is relatively easy to say same re Gillard

    onwards comardes – i just hope we are prepared as best possible for battle and future ahead

  3. afternoon all

    Zoomster: if you’re here. Did you catch my post yesterday recommending an (unsympathetic) book on Ned Kelly? If not, I can provide the info again.

  4. zoomster@200

    bemused

    the fact that the only response you have on this matter is to abuse those who disagree with you suggests your position is very weak.

    Can you explain how I abused anyone?

  5. G

    [BW

    I note the court decision you ignored.

    It all the fault of Greece and zero of the EU with you]

    1. Greece and Germany have formal government-to-government agreements in place that settled all outstanding issues from WW2.

    2. If Greece subsequently sets up a legal system and a court system that is in breach of those agreements, then it is, once again, a sign of Greek bad faith.

    3. SYRIZA is in negotiations with the Eurogroup to enter a revised Bailout Agreement.

    4. SYRIZA has already breached the existing Bailout Agreement with the EU, the IMF and the WB.

    5. Now the SYRIZAN Government is also seeking to breach the existing german/greek government-to-government agreements.

    In summary: The SYRIZANs have breached the existing Bailout Agreement. They have announced that they intend to breach the existing government-to-government agreements.

    But the SYRIZANs are also saying, ‘You can trust us with a new agreement.’

    Spot the disjunct?

  6. muttley

    My point is Julia Gillard was deputy Prime Minister because she backed Mr Rudd a judgement call.

    I respect her judgement. I think that judgement was based on ideas and philosophy that was let down by practical experience.

    Thus listen to the ideas just don’t get too close

  7. meher

    yes, thank you – but after ploughing through this book, it’ll be a while before I do my obligatory “read something about Ned Kelly just in case I’ve been unfairly prejudiced against the man’ thing again!

    bemused

    Oh, so ‘cultist’ is a term of affection and regard? Who knew?

  8. [209
    guytaur]

    Labor elected Rudd as leader knowing how despicable he could be. It was a very serious error that was obvious to many inside the caucus at the time. Labor’s been paying for it ever since.

  9. guytaur

    she explains her backing of Rudd at the start of her book. Basically she recognised his faults but thought that they would be mitigated once he had the power he wanted.

    My biggest criticism of Gillard has always been her judgement of people – she was generally too willing to believe the best of them.

  10. Made me smile..

    John Pollock @JohnPollock6
    smh.com.au/federal-politi… via @smh

    Best thing about Jones interviewing Abbott is that you can miss them both at the same time. 🙂

  11. bemused

    well, obviously some people see it as a term of abuse.

    Knowing that, you should avoid the term – if you really don’t want to give people that impression.

  12. [201
    Nicholas

    Why are you consulting Boerwar on the Eurozone crisis? Boerwar is an expert on macroeconomics in the same way that the albino monk in The Da Vinci Code is an expert on Catholicism.]

    lol…..in the same way that you’re an expert on neo-stalinist monetary and fiscal systems….

  13. bemused

    Just for interest’s sake

    [It is a term that best describes the uncritical adulation of certain people.]

    Why did you use it in this instance? I can’t see any uncritical adulation of Gillard going on.

  14. bw

    Well the EU are battling a Sovereign Democratically Elected Government.

    Such Governments can review any treaty they like.

    I will put this whole thing in a local context for you.

    Daniel Andrews not building the EW link.

    New Government not honouring old Government commitments.

  15. Re the opening post by William, my view is Bill Shorten just does doesn’t cut through.

    The ALP’s lead is basically all down to how bad the Abbott Govt is.
    When Abbott gets replaced, I think the ALP is toast. I’m sure the Labor caucus are contemplating this.

  16. bemused@211

    zoomster@210


    bemused

    Oh, so ‘cultist’ is a term of affection and regard? Who knew?

    It is a term that best describes the uncritical adulation of certain people.

    Actually, it is a fairly neutral term.
    [Cult – a group or sect bound together by veneration of the same thing, person, ideal, etc.]

  17. zoomster

    I still respect her judgement. In the case of Rudd this means not dismissing his ideas out of hand because he is a rat.

    There was a good basis for Gillard to back Rudd. I see that even as experience proved her wrong in character judgement.

    On ideas and philosophy she was right. Rudd did apologise to the Aboriginal people’s stolen generation. Gillard continued this in office.

    One example

  18. MTBW

    Check out this pic of our (‘Betz) in WA . Only WA get the privilege of two Abetz’s in their lives he’s in state parly.

  19. A few weeks ago I politely asked bemused to desist from labelling myself and others as “cultists” ..it was a request made in good faith.

    His response has been to use the term at every opportunity ..much as Abbott wears his blue tie & winks at every opportunity. It is a device used by my grand-children to annoy others by deliberately repeating a stupid habit/saying they pick up & are asked to stop…

    My grand children eventually stop ..and grow up a little bit more..

  20. zoomster@217

    bemused

    Just for interest’s sake

    It is a term that best describes the uncritical adulation of certain people.


    Why did you use it in this instance? I can’t see any uncritical adulation of Gillard going on.

    The uncritical adulation is well established in the case of certain identifiable cultists.

    If people find it offensive then they must harbour doubts about the object of their veneration.

  21. [218
    Boerwar

    briefly

    Syriza are gambling with Greece’s reputation…unbelievable

    Without even a pair of twos in their hand.

    Bizarro.]

    Not even a pair of twos….it’s a new thing: the naked bluff. Everyone at the table can see you hold nothing but still you raise the stakes.

    The Finance Minister is described as an expert in game theory. The game seems to be to threaten not to play any more; to go and start a new game with some other kids.

    It’s a declaration by Greece that “Even if we lose, you will lose more and that means you have to let us win. Since losing is winning you might as well just let us win.”

    It makes sense after a few ouzos.

  22. Re Albo: great faction leader, terrible choice as party leader.

    Here are some of the key arguments against him.

    1) He aided and abetted Rudd’s campaign of disloyalty. He claimed (tearily) in public that he was doing this out of some sort of high principles. But, in the end, he got the Deputy PMship for the brief period before the good ship Rudd sank into the sunset.

    2) He is too far to the left to be electable at the Federal level: the best demonstration of this is his views about the urgent need to retain million dollar public housing with harbour views. The Libs would have a field day with this.

    3) In general, his past connections and questionable judgement would make him a big target for the Libs and the Murdoch Press: beers with Craig Thomson, personally intervening to save Ian Macdonald’s career so that he could go on to issue those mining licences, etc.

    4) His parliamentary behaviour as an attack dog: as Paul Keating found, this sort of behaviour makes you a pinup boy for the party faithful, but it’s a big turnoff for swinging voters, especially women.

    I don’t think Shorten is all that wonderful. But he’s from the Victorian Labor Right, which makes him both a moderate in terms of the overall Australian political spectrum (unlike either Abbott or Albo) and free of the taint attaching to the Labor Right.

    If Shorten fell under a bus, then I think the next best option – if she’ll do it – is Plibersek, who comes from the NSW Soft Left of Faulkner, Watkins et al, which is sufficiently moderate and untainted (ie, by connections to Ian Macdonald) to be an acceptable source of a leader. Behind her would be someone like Mark Butler, from the equally acceptable SA Left. Even better, from the same faction, would be Penny Wong if she could come down from the Senate. I reckon it’s still a possibility one of these days.

    Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, Jason Clare are all NSW Right men, and I think that faction should be left in the wilderness for a long while to come.

  23. Rex Douglas@221

    Re the opening post by William, my view is Bill Shorten just does doesn’t cut through.

    The ALP’s lead is basically all down to how bad the Abbott Govt is.
    When Abbott gets replaced, I think the ALP is toast. I’m sure the Labor caucus are contemplating this.

    Thanks Rex, I needed my daily dose of pessimism.

    First term Govts generally get the benefit of the doubt. Labor is in a quite remarkable position.

    Cheer up Rex.

  24. bemused

    I don’t see any cultism going on here, other than your knee jerk reaction that any criticism of Rudd must mean praise of Gillard.

    That knee jerk reaction is very much that of, if not a cultist, someone who feels they’re on very shaky ground.

    People who are confident in their beliefs don’t get unnecessarily defensive. They can discuss them without feeling the need to denigrate their opponents.

  25. [The ALP’s lead is basically all down to how bad the Abbott Govt is.]

    So it’s all in the selling, and can fixed with a bit of spin?

    I think it goes deeper than that. Australians don’t like LNP policy. For a new leader fixing policy will create all sorts of internal combustion’s.

  26. poroti

    I sensibly have no opinion. 😀

    On Tanya, she’s intelligent and attractive, but her soft, hesitant delivery is a disadvantage, IMHO.

  27. meher baba

    I don’t agree Albo ‘aided and abetted’ Rudds treason.

    I think he simply supported a leader that that defeated John Howard and took Labor to Govt.

    Albo is the least bit treasonous, unlike the incompetent pathetic Rudd.

  28. [220
    guytaur

    bw

    Well the EU are battling a Sovereign Democratically Elected Government.

    Such Governments can review any treaty they like.

    I will put this whole thing in a local context for you.

    Daniel Andrews not building the EW link.

    New Government not honouring old Government commitments.]

    This is just absurd.

    Quite obviously, a contract to build a road is a different thing from a deal to rescue national finance.

    It’s also completely clear that Greece can repudiate its debts any time it wants. It also seems to think it can confiscate the property of non-Greek citizens. If it does so, Greece will be the loser. Syriza seems to think it can transfer Greek losses to others. This is a grievous error, but one they are prepared to risk. It is utterly deluded thinking.

  29. Just an observation…

    It still surprises me how so many Labor supporters spend much of their time here denigrating past and current Labor MPs and PMs when the conservative supporters as a rule don’t engage in such talk about their own side. David and Truthie might be pretty different it their respective thoughts concerning Abbott and Turnbull or Fraser and Howard but there’s no slanging match ever that I’ve seen. They probably deeply disagree on policies and personalities but they do stick together in urging their side to win at almost any cost.

  30. Reality check. An oppositions standing in the opinion polls are always determined by how the government is performing. A well performing government has nothing to fear from any opposition, whether that opposition is performing well or not.

  31. Reality check. An oppositions standing in the opinion polls are always determined by how the government is performing. A well performing government has nothing to fear from any opposition, whether that opposition is performing well or not.

  32. lol…..in the same way that you’re an expert on neo-stalinist monetary and fiscal systems…

    Anyone who claims that non-convertible fiat currencies are synonymous with Stalinism clearly needs to apply their dilettantish propensities to a field other than economics. Hot air balloons would be more your bag.

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