Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.
Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.
Tom 244,
All that marching in unison must get pretty tiring. If the LNP ever change their environmental policies it will be hilarious watching the “about turn”! They have already gone back and forth a few times on that one 🙂
meher
[If Shorten fell under a bus, then I think the next best option – if she’ll do it – is Plibersek, who comes from the NSW Soft Left of Faulkner, Watkins et al, which is sufficiently moderate and untainted (ie, by connections to Ian Macdonald) to be an acceptable source of a leader. Behind her would be someone like Mark Butler, from the equally acceptable SA Left. Even better, from the same faction, would be Penny Wong if she could come down from the Senate. I reckon it’s still a possibility one of these days.
Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, Jason Clare are all NSW Right men, and I think that faction should be left in the wilderness for a long while to come.]
Absolutely agree with that assessment.
Do you know where Ed Husic and Dreyfuss sit in the faction system?
markjs@229
Oh, so you are self identifying? I can’t help that.
It is a convenient word that would take several other words to replace. Perhaps this is a deficiency in my vocabulary and you can suggest an alternative that will meet my purpose?
MTBW@252: I’m pretty sure Husic is NSW Right: I think he’s closer to the Chris Bowen side of things than the Terrigals. I’m not exactly sure where Dreyfuss sits, but would assume Vic Right.
PS..
I don’t “venerate” anyone ..however, I do admire Julia Gillard very much. in MY opinion she was one of the great Prime Ministers of this country, and I consider her faults were vastly outweighed by her her skilful negotiation of one of the cruelest, personally abusive, and totally amoral oppositions in this country’s history..
As if that wasn’t enough, she had to deal with the Independents and/or Greens to get almost every piece of legislation through the HoReps AND the Senate..
As if that wasn’t enough, she also had to deal with a relentless negative propaganda campaign led by Murdoch’s sh*t sheets ..and ably backed up by their ABC..
As if that wasn’t enough, she had the treacherous Rudd & his equally treacherous “cardinals” leaking ..undermining ..ridiculing her at every opportunity..
Julia Gillard a “saint”? ..no, just the most wonderful politician I’ve ever come across..
If my considered view of Julia Gillard offends you, bemused ..GOOD!!
Question @251
But if there is a change of leader they will all want to be seen to support the new leader even if there are big shifts in policy as part of that change.
Labor supporters here are still fighting the Rudd/Gillard wars even when both have left parliament. Who’s here is fighting the Howard/Fraser wars? Or the Abbott/Turnbull wars? Certainly not the conservative voters who post here.
meher
I find both of them very impressive.
bemused
well, you could always leave off using the term and actually mount an argument instead.
btw, avoiding my question? You are so brave.
Oh dear… here is the harmless exchange that started all the Rudd/Gillard stuff.
bemused@182
So any retort such as mine provokes all of the cult to pile in and attack whoever made such a mild comment. OK, I get it.
Re my 254: I might add that all these factional things are pretty complex. For example, my understanding is that Plibersek comes from a NSW Soft Left group which was once led by Senator Bruce Childs which was once separate to Faulkner’s group, and was more inclined to oppose Faulkner and side with the Hard Left once led by Gietzelt and more recently by Albo. But it would seem that the Gillard-Rudd stuff has driven Plibersek away from Albo’s group and closer to some of the softer elements of the Right faction.
Also, when we talk of the Victorian Right, there are at least two major elements: the Shorten group aligned with the AWU and other moderate unions, and the Shoppies. Likewise, the NSW Right had the Terrigals, the Sussex St mob and the remnants of a sort of southern-southwest Sydney group that featured the likes of Brereton, McLelland Snr and Jnr and Latham. I think this last group is just about kaput.
But it’s hard to keep up with all of this. It seems to me that the Rudd-Gillard battle really mucked around the factional system, setting “mate against mate” as it were.
[223
MTBW
Rex
The ALP’s lead is basically all down to how bad the Abbott Govt is.
My view as well!]
Labor’s underlying brand meaning/s are also operating.
meher baba@254
I think you got that right.
I agreed with your assessment too although it would be good if Bowen, Clare and Burke could dissociate themselves from the NSW Right, They are all talented.
bemused
Aren’t you aware yet that if zoomster asks you a question you must answer it?
[ Labor supporters here are still fighting the Rudd/Gillard wars even when both have left parliament. Who’s here is fighting the Howard/Fraser wars? Or the Abbott/Turnbull wars? Certainly not the conservative voters who post here. ]
There is only one poster here still fighting that war, and I have always had my doubts whether he’s really an ALP supporter.
He reminds me of that Japanese WWII soldier who was found living on a pacific island somewhere, not realizing the war was over decades ago.
[if Bowen, Clare and Burke could dissociate themselves from the NSW Right]
Clare certainly is but Bowen I have my doubts on. Burke good sometimes.
CTar1
Yep bemused must be Abbott”s slogan coach. Everytime Abbott says death cult. Bemused says cultist. 😀
[250
Nicholas
lol…..in the same way that you’re an expert on neo-stalinist monetary and fiscal systems…
Anyone who claims that non-convertible fiat currencies are synonymous with Stalinism clearly needs to apply their dilettantish propensities to a field other than economics. Hot air balloons would be more your bag.]
There are very few economies run with non-convertible currencies these days. North Korea comes to mind.
markjs@255
It doesn’t offend me in the least. I just happen to see things differently in a number of respects.
So I take it you like to offend people? I don’t.
What a happy little place this is to enjoy today!
zoomster@258
What was your question?
Maybe I couldn’t discern it from the rhetorical bluster.
Tom @251,
I agree with your point, my point is that “marching in unison” is a bit tedious.
If you don’t argue it out then you end up with all the self-contradictory policy the LNP are trying to cobble together (that ex leaders like Fraser and Hewson think is crap).
MTBW: I like Husic as well, he’s got a lot of potential: erudite, clever, moderate.
Dreyfuss is ok, but probably not a potential leader (he got the kiss of death endorsement from Mark Latham a while back!)
Perhaps, now that we have had the once unthinkable prospect of having Catholics leading both major parties (all three if Barnaby replaces Truss any time soon), it would be exciting to follow that up with two Jewish leaders – Dreyfuss and Frydenberg – and then round it all off with Husic lining up against a Liberal Muslim (if they can ever recruit one).
I have no fear of a new Liberal leader.
Shorten is doing well and I think will handle them.
This will be faster the more Abbott policy positions the new leader clings to.
bemused
[all of the cult…]
Ah. Me and markjs.
When I’ve just criticised Gillard, something you say no cult member does.
So apparently ‘all of the cult’ is markjs.
meher
My grandfather who was Catholic and the Member for Kingsford Smith used to be abused from the pulpit by the priest for not joining the DLP.
The parish priest told the congregation not to vote for him.
Them were the days!
zoomster@274
I am struggling to find your question in that.
meher
Ed Husic has a lovely manner about him and he understates not overstates his efforts.
He is very sincere and easy to listen to.
Unemploymetn has dropped slightly thanks to – a declining participation rate! In other words, the unemployed have started givign up looking for work. Great work, Joe Hockey!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/abs-unemployment-jobs-data-february/6306754
This reminds me of that “jobs pledge” of Tony Abbott. Remember the million new jobs? To avoid being criticised for mis-quoting, here is the direct quote from the Liberal Party website:
[The next Coalition government will create a strong and prosperous economy and a safe and secure Australia.
Our policies will deliver more jobs, higher wages and better services for Australian families. We will achieve this through lower taxes, more efficient government and more productive businesses.
Today, I am committing a future Coalition government to creating one million new jobs within five years and two million new jobs over the next decade]
http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2012/11/28/tony-abbott-press-release-coalitions-jobs-pledge
Think about that – a million new jobs over five years equals 200,000 per year or 17,000 per month. This month the economy generated 15,600 new jobs, short of the rate needed to meet the Liberal’s target. (Including part time too). At this rate Abbot would need another year to achieve his promise.
But even achieving the promise is not good enough. There are currently 750,000 unemployed and another 900,000 under-employed who would like more work but cannot get it. At 15,000 jobs a month (full and part time) it will take 100 months – eight years – for them all to get the work they hope for. That assumes that nobody else enters the job market in the mean time. In fact about 250,000 new job seekers enter the labour force every year. So we actually need a million new jobs every FOUR years, not five, just to not let unemployment get worse.
So Abbott set the bar low, and still failed to clear it.
@BK
thanks as ever for you wonderful work in sharing links this morning. I do quibble though with the description of Latham’s article as insightful. In my opinion it is simply a resurrection of his nasty ‘real Aussies don’t claim to be depressed’ shtick and, like everything he writes on social issues, unworthy of serious consideration.
MTBW@277
All that and more is why I think the ALP should arrange for him to spend some time with Jacqi Lambie to dispel her ideas about moslems.
A few points on this discussion about Labor.
First, choosing Albo would not have been ridiculous. He has great ability both politically and administratively. But I think the decision to go with Shorten has turned out to be a very good one. It is not possible to know how it would have gone with Albo because that has not been tested. Personally, I have more affection for Albo than Shorten (even down to what I call them), but affection is not a reason to favour someone in a leadership ballot.
Secondly, I may be imposing my own sense of what Labor’s strategy should be on what is actually happening, but I think Shorten’s strategy is right. Forty years of watching Labor in power and opposition has shown that most of the time their opponents are happy to lie and distort representations of their policies and the media uncritically reports these misrepresentations as fact. The only exception was in the mid-period of the Hawke years. And no time was worse than the last Parliament.
So the idea of being on the front foot and presenting policies this far out is ludicrous. Not only would such policies not be properly developed because there had not been broad consultation (see current Coalition Government to how that works), but circumstances can change in the meantime and make those policies seem wrong, irrelevant or dumb. Which would just be the ticket for a flakey Government to attack and distract attention from its own incompetence.
Which brings us to the third point. If the Liberal shills are jumping up and down demanding policies from Shorten and Labor and labouring over every possible pre-teen variation on two word put-downs including the name Bill, doesn’t that tell the Labor supporters that it is not a good idea to push out policies. Shorten is not just getting reasonably good polling support because of Abbott’s blunders, but also because he is assiduously presenting himself as an anti-Abbott. Whatever Abbott is – shrill, hysterical, sloganeering, divisive, abusive – Shorten is working damn hard to show he is not. This means that he is offering a positive alternative to Abbott, not just being Anyone But Abbott.
So all this crap that Shorten should be making a lot more noise is just music to the ears of Liberal shills who are desperately hoping for any small ‘gaffe’ by someone in Labor that they can use to divert attention. The good thing is that the Parliamentary Labor Party is a hell of a lot smarter than some of its supporters in ensuring that there is total unity of purpose and strategy.
Which brings me to the last point about recycling the internal crap from the last government. While it does not matter one whit on this blog because the squabbles don’t go outside the blog, it is incredibly annoying for those of us who get a little sick of the self-indulgence of some.
By that I mean the self-indulgence of those who persist in using phrases that are not only incorrect but also offensive (such as ‘cult’) to do nothing more than troll fellow board members. Once you know how people react to the language, persisting in it is just abusive. It is no different to Abbott using the phrase ‘die of shame’ in Parliamentary debate after Jones had made the appalling comment about Julia Gillard’s father dying of shame – and then pleading innocence.
In the same vein, describing those who believe that Julia Gillard was a good, excellent or great Prime Minister as conferring sainthood on her is also ridiculous trolling. For my part I think she was an excellent PM. She had outstanding achievements in a hung parliament and withstood a level of personal venom within the Parliament from both foes and fifth columnists that has never been seen in an Australian political party. And she also kept a very good Cabinet together with a common sense of purpose until it became clear that there was absolutely no chance of avoiding a catastrophic electoral defeat.
But she was a bloody awful formal communicator in public and did not have the ability to enthuse the public for her policies in the way that a good PM must. Hawke and, especially, Keating did have those skills.
As for Rudd, whatever his strengths and weaknesses, his betrayal of his political party during the 2010 election with leaks of utterly damaging claims about Gillard at critical points was the greatest act of political bastardry since Hughes split the Labor party. It was unforgivable. While it has never been shown that Rudd did it, I give it the same the degree of likelihood as climate change actually occurring. I’m not even sure that Abbott would stoop that low (although the current PM has enormous capacity to surprise on the downside).
So call me a cultist if you like. Say that I am sanctifying Gillard and make Rudd the most evil person ever. I won’t take offence any more because I know it is just an attempt to troll, like TBA. In fact, that sort of conduct would get a gold star from Tony Abbott and the Liberal spinmeisters as a lesson well-learnt.
The smart ones don’t stay in unison 🙂
[Dr Hewson predicted the lack of political vision would persist.
“It’s not just, in my mind, simply a question of changing the jockey – the horse is crook,” he said.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/02/17/14/18/abbott-not-govt-s-main-problem-hewson#Q0LaaErBq4IdwvO9.99%5D
Is Abbott the full quid? Strange behaviour from the PM.
[VICTORIA’S premier has relayed details of an awkward phone call with Prime Minister Tony Abbott.
DANIEL Andrews said Mr Abbott went silent on the phone when their conversation turned to the controversial East West Link.
Mr Andrews said the unrelated phone call was derailed, and ended abruptly, when he suggested a meeting to discuss the dumped road project.
“At the end of the phone was silence. I thought he’d actually hung up at one point. But it was absolute silence,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Thursday.
]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/abbott-silent-on-east-west-link-andrews/story-e6frfku9-1227259743460
bemused@262: there is nothing wrong with the NSW Right in the broad. It is more in tune with the political views of the average Australian than any other grouping in Australian politics. It has produced some outstanding politicians: Whitlam, Wran, Keating, Carr, etc. After the split, it kept Labor in the political game in NSW while the more left-leaning and Protestant Victorian branch took Labor into the political wilderness at both the state and Federal level: until Whitlam’s magnificent intervention to clean it up, after which Labor has governed at the Federal level for 22 out of the last 42 and a bit years, as opposed to managing around 10 out of the preceding 42 years.
There are two specific problems with the NSW Right that have come to the fore in recent years. 1) From Joe Meissner to Obeid and Tripodi, a tendency to give succor to people whom it would have been better to avoid (not exclusively a problem for the NSW Right, but they are rather celebrated for it); and 2) through the influence of people like Bruce Hawker, an obsession with tailoring policy and leadership choices to the findings of market research/focus groups/etc.
But the NSW Right is generally more a force for good than not, and I think it is unfairly maligned in many places (including on PB).
[There is an expectation (among all parties) that fair or not, if you are dumped, you should take it on the chin.]
It is at best a pretty stupid expectation and one applied very inconsistently at least in Labor circles.
At its heart it is a restriction on the weak to point out an abuse of power by the strong. ‘You don’t have the numbers we do if you don’t want to be crushed respect our authority’.
Where decisions are made in the best interests of the party and state and nation it makes some sense to end dissent. Only the decisions aren’t made and the votes aren’t cast in the interests of the parties or the state or nation. They should be challenged and criticized.
Marty @ 279
I agree re Latham. The fact that he constantly conflated depression and anxiety – and treated anxiety as nothing more than a bit overly worried, rather than the serious separate clinical illness that it is, told me that he was writing through his bum.
Clinical depression is not the same as being down, and clinical anxiety is not the same as being apprehensive and while someone can suffer from both they are quite different.
citizen@283
Answer to your question. NO!!!
Must have been another shuddering brain lock. Pity it wasn’t on camera. 👿
I would have thought Labor’s recent reincarnation in Queensland makes all discussion about the quality of the LOTO irrelevant.
Given said Queensland Labor leader was considered as irrelevant – including any clue on how to pronounce her name for most – shows it is the pathetic nature of a government which voters react against most.
For those bagging Shorten – and I am not overjoyed with him either – how much further ahead than 55-45 or even 53-47 would the likes of Albo or anyone else be if in charge of Labor?
The likes of Hawke only come along once every generation when you know as LOTO he was bound for PM.
I understand that a Drover’s Dog could have lead Labor to government back then.
Player one @ 264
[He reminds me of that Japanese WWII soldier who was found living on a pacific island somewhere, not realizing the war was over decades ago.]
😀
Of course, if he shot at you, you had to shoot back even if the war is over.
[ VICTORIA’S premier has relayed details of an awkward phone call with Prime Minister Tony Abbott.
DANIEL Andrews said Mr Abbott went silent on the phone when their conversation turned to the controversial East West Link.
Mr Andrews said the unrelated phone call was derailed, and ended abruptly, when he suggested a meeting to discuss the dumped road project.
“At the end of the phone was silence. I thought he’d actually hung up at one point. But it was absolute silence,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Thursday. ]
Sounds like Abbott slipped into his catatonic noddy-head state. You know, the Mark Riley interview
MTBW@275: That said, the DLP was never that strong a force in NSW. Cardinal Gilroy, to his eternal credit, was anything but a fan.
WWP,
In quoting me you missed the bit where I had moved-on to Abbott.
I think the expectation has come about because we have a party system rather than a presidential system. “Gift of the party room” and all that…
meher baba@284
Good post as usual meher.
I was around in the Vic ALP before Federal Intervention and I never perceived it as being ‘Protestant’.
The faith that animated elements of the ‘left’ leadership was authoritarianism bordering on Stalinism.
Rudd fits nicely into the qualities of Sainthood.
His miracle of ‘removing of Howard Government from power’, like existing saints on reflection was no miracle at all.
Also he fails in demonstrating in his behaviour the saintly qualities, a quality also common in his predecessors.
The above demonstrate clearly his suitability, but I think that would be selling him short.
Surely his brief resurrection and then disappearance into the wilderness raises him above the petty realm of sainthood and into the more lofty realm of messiah.
🙂
citizen
I’d say the answer is that Abbott didn’t write the letter himself, possibly Peta did as part of the ‘war’ against Labor, so he was struck dumb when asked for a face-to-face.
Now let’s see, what has he been doing other than running the country this week? Oh yes, photo opportunities and supporting WA. He’s been a bit stretched 🙂
TPOF..
Excellent post.. 🙂
TPOF & Marty,
I agree on the anxiety issue. There may well be ways to reduce the costs of these disorders, but they are real, and they are debilitating.
Soc
[So Abbott set the bar low, and still failed to clear it.]
And not only on job creation.
citizen @ 283
Andrews must have accused Abbott of saying ‘shit happens’.
Clare I have a fair bit of time for – his one serious error that I can recall was being part of that press conference on sports doping, but we all make mistakes.
Bowen, on the other hand, has made many serious errors of judgment during the R/G/R period in my opinion, and while he made a good fist of his temporary leadership of the party he hasn’t been doing a great job in the shadow treasurer role. Big question marks over whether he can grow into it and live down his past transgressions in my mind. Others in the ALP are probably in a better position to be applying for the Treasurer’s job – Andrew Leigh being the most obvious. Maybe Bowen can do a fine job in some role and be a leadership contender down the track, but he has certainly not proven himself to be ready now, if ever.
Burke is someone I took something of an instant dislike to, but despite myself he keeps winning me over. I guess it’s mainly his style, but he seems like a genuinely nice guy, and I think he was quite decent in carrying out his various ministerial roles. If he has the drive and can augment his easy-going appeal with a bit more of a ruthless political streak I think he could be a decent future leader.
Husic has never impressed me. I can’t recall any appearance of his that I have seen where I thought “he is really making a good case here”. I’m sure he’s very personable, but he doesn’t inspire me.
Plibersek has many talents, and I have a lot of respect for her, but I think her soft delivery is a real problem. A leader needs to be able to gee up the troops and take the fight up to the enemy when necessary, and I don’t think she can effectively do either of these things (admittedly I have had similar concerns about Shorten – he has been able to acquit himself adequately if not brilliantly in these aspects so far).
Wong is better at bringing the fire. I would like to see her make the move to the lower house and be in contention. I’m not sure she has the desire to put herself in the firing line though.
Albo, of course, has the fire in spades, but as I’ve said before I don’t think he was or is the leader the ALP needs, and I have never seen any evidence that Albo has ever particularly wanted to be leader. He stepped up when the ALP needed him to make a proper contest of the new leadership process, but I don’t think he was at all disappointed about not getting the nod.
Dreyfuss has his strengths, but I can’t see him as leader. It may be a shallow reaction, but to my mind he simply can’t do the “everyman” thing – he’ll always come across as a somewhat pompous barrister-type who the average man/woman on the street wouldn’t be particularly keen to have a beer with.