BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Despite Labor’s strong headline figure in this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a move in favour of the Coalition, while also correcting a recent downturn in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,662 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 54
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  2. [lizzie
    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 1:44 pm | PERMALINK
    citizen

    I’d say the answer is that Abbott didn’t write the letter himself, possibly Peta did as part of the ‘war’ against Labor, so he was struck dumb when asked for a face-to-face.
    ]

    I think also he wasn’t expecting that robust reply from Andrews. He knows how to punch and be a bully but is totally at sea when confronted by someone who calls his bluff.

  3. [While it has never been shown that Rudd did it, I give it the same the degree of likelihood as climate change actually occurring. I’m not even sure that Abbott would stoop that low (although the current PM has enormous capacity to surprise on the downsi]

    Pretty convenient and after quite a preachy post to suppress unnecessary and unhelpful history wars you undermine yourself with the absurdity of comparing a two time Labor PM unfavourably to Abbott.

    There are two main problems I have with this kind of attack on Rudd. Firstly if the reasons for the Rudd removal are even 30% correctly stated and only 70% political spin and exaggeration (I’d put the number closer to 10:90) then it was predictable and indeed obvious that Rudd would not take it lying down. That it was done in a way that made it look like the revolt was lead by Union leaders outside caucus (I know some claim this wasn’t really the case and it all you have to do is ignore known facts and trust insider gossip to believe) gave Rudd even extra legitimacy and a right almost a need to fight to reform the party. It is my personal view that his steps to reform the party are really what got him necked (that he was a sod probably made it easier).

    Second problem is that even if you accept he was a sod removed for the right reasons and then an utterly low down scum traitor afterwards (and I don’t but many do) why did the party make him leader and PM a second time? It is a difficult thing for clowns who go on about how low scum lower than Abbott to explain.

    But then Rudd has come out and made the very sensible call for the party to become a real party and not just the play thing of union warlords. And we get all the little factional sheep coming out and trying to knife the twice ALP Prime Minister and last ALP Prime Minister because the Union factional warlords don’t want a great ALP with a fair and sensible party structure, policies and preselections made in the best interests of the party, state and nation. They want a meek plaything where seats can be entirely within the gift of the powerful.

    And the weak can’t complain or they will be crushed.

  4. BTW, on the subject of Rudd cultists and Gillard cultists.

    I personally was not a huge fan of either of them. Rudd was a brilliant campaigner, but a very poor manager of the machinery of government and of his own party. He was more focused on winning every argument than on achieving outcomes. He will go down in history for making a rousing speech on Aborigines which didn’t really lead to any concrete results and for the response to the GFC in which I’m not sure the extent to which he played a personal role. He was intensely disloyal to Gillard for reasons (more or less “I wuz robbed”) that only a minority of Labor supporters appear to accept as valid.

    Gillard as PM is vastly overrated by many IMO. She was a poor communicator, her admission that the emissions trading scheme was a carbon tax is the second biggest stuff-up in modern Australian political history (just behind making Prince Philip a knight), and her communications skills were patchy at best. Her major reforms are mostly flops: the emissions trading scheme got killed off by Abbott, Gonski was not really a reform scheme but just an exercise in shoveling money out the door and it will eventually be killed off too.

    NDIS is a great reform, but unaffordable at this time unless someone wants to bit the bullet and raise taxes. In order to pay for it and Gonski, Gillard and Swan made lots of really nasty budget cuts in the 2011-13 period which the Abbott Government has been to some extent unfairly blamed for: 20 per cent cut to uni funding, huge cuts to public service funding, etc, etc.

    The one enormous positive aspect of Gillard’s rule was her incredible grace and determination under extreme pressure. She would have been a terrific wartime leader. Indeed, she is probably our most underrated PM ever in terms of her achievements on the world stage, where she went really well: far, far better than Rudd could ever hope to have done (if you don’t believe me, find anyone who works in the diplomatic world and ask them about how she went).

    In terms of their achievements as PM, in my relatively neutral assessment, Hawke, Keating, Howard, Gorton and even Whitlam (despite all of his government’s incredible stuff-ups) all rate well ahead of both Gillard and Rudd, who in turn probably scrape in a bit ahead of Fraser, with McMahon way behind and Abbott further back still. I’m too young to remember Holt or Menzies. (BTW, I’m told that the all-powerful permanent heads who ruled the Canberra public service before Hawke and Wilenski cut their successors down to size would, almost to a man – there were no women – agree that Ben Chifley was the most impressive and easily the most intelligent PM in Australian history. It does seem from the history books that he was extremely good, until he got it all wrong in trying to nationalise the banks.)

  6. [Albo would have been good too. Just different. Compared to the LNP Labor has an embarrassment of riches in talent.]

    Albo should be treasurer rather than Mumbles Bowen

  7. [Burke is someone I took something of an instant dislike to, but despite myself he keeps winning me over. I guess it’s mainly his style, but he seems like a genuinely nice guy, and I think he was quite decent in carrying out his various ministerial roles. If he has the drive and can augment his easy-going appeal with a bit more of a ruthless political streak I think he could be a decent future leader.]

    He makes me think of an intelligent Andrew Gaze.

  8. Meher baba @233:

    [Re Albo: great faction leader, terrible choice as party leader.

    Here are some of the key arguments against him.]

    I’ll read them.

    [1) He aided and abetted Rudd’s campaign of disloyalty. He claimed (tearily) in public that he was doing this out of some sort of high principles. But, in the end, he got the Deputy PMship for the brief period before the good ship Rudd sank into the sunset.]

    An interesting interpretation – not sure how valid it is. I agree that Albo needs to be asked some tough questions regarding the R-G-R turnstile.

    But then, so does Shorten – who backed Rudd in knifing Beazley, then Gillard in knifing Rudd, then Rudd in knifing Gillard, and got rewarded each time for his “loyalty”.

    Shorten’s hands are not clean in this regard, any more than Albo’s.

    [2) He is too far to the left to be electable at the Federal level: the best demonstration of this is his views about the urgent need to retain million dollar public housing with harbour views. The Libs would have a field day with this.]

    Hah! The bulk of both parties are far to the right – policy-wise – of where the bulk of the Australian public is. For evidence, see Possum’s What Australians Believe post for a laundry list of what Australians want, but neither major party is prepared to deliver.

    Large majorities advocate center-left policies long abandoned by the ALP in favour of “electability”. Net result? The ALP’s support is a mile wide…but an inch deep.

    [3) In general, his past connections and questionable judgement would make him a big target for the Libs and the Murdoch Press: beers with Craig Thomson,]

    So – as a MHR – he had beers with another MHR (Thomson hadn’t yet retired), and when the Government needs his support to stay in power, yet! Stop the presses!

    [personally intervening to save Ian Macdonald’s career so that he could go on to issue those mining licences, etc.]

    Albo intervened in 2006. ICAC’s findings of corruption go back as far as 2009. Granted, Macdonald was probably not squeaky-clean beforehand, but even ICAC hasn’t found anything prosecutable in his conduct prior to 2009.

    Albo intervened because of realpolitik – major unions supported Macdonald. You know, much the same reason the ALP dumped incumbent Sen. Louise Pratt (WA) to make room for union heavyweight Joe Bullock – to secure wholehearted support from the WA unions for the election campaign.

    [4) His parliamentary behaviour as an attack dog: as Paul Keating found, this sort of behaviour makes you a pinup boy for the party faithful, but it’s a big turnoff for swinging voters, especially women.]

    Tell that to John Hewson, who lose the “unloseable” election to Keating in 1993. Done right, an attack-dog performance fires up more than the base.

    [I don’t think Shorten is all that wonderful.]

    Nor do I, although I think he’s OK. Certainly, he hasn’t made any major stuff-ups, which sets a beautiful contrast to the rabble to the Speaker’s right.

    [But he’s from the Victorian Labor Right, which makes him both a moderate in terms of the overall Australian political spectrum]

    Why? Is Victorian Right “centrist” or something? I know they’re not as far Right as the NSW right, but I’m not sure I’d call them “centrist” or “moderate”.

    And Australia’s had enough years of right-wing government already, don’t you agree?

    [(unlike either Abbott or Albo)]

    Equating Albo with Abbott is disingenuous at best; he’s not nearly as far to the Left as Abbott is to the Right.

    [and free of the taint attaching to the Labor Right.]

    Why? Sure, Obeid’s not involved with the Vic Right, but that doesn’t make the Vic Right clear of taint.

    [If Shorten fell under a bus, then I think the next best option – if she’ll do it – is Plibersek, who comes from the NSW Soft Left of Faulkner, Watkins et al, which is sufficiently moderate and untainted (ie, by connections to Ian Macdonald) to be an acceptable source of a leader. Behind her would be someone like Mark Butler, from the equally acceptable SA Left. Even better, from the same faction, would be Penny Wong if she could come down from the Senate. I reckon it’s still a possibility one of these days.]

    All excellent choices for excellent reasons. I particularly admire Wong, although I’m not sure if the muckrakers at Murdochland wouldn’t rake her personal life over the coals.

    [Chris Bowen, Tony Burke, Jason Clare are all NSW Right men, and I think that faction should be left in the wilderness for a long while to come.]

    Like “forever, until they completely reform”?

    The corruption gripping the NSW Right has no place in Canberra. Not now, not in “a long while to come” – never.

  10. And it would seem today that Martin Ferguson’s support of privatisation would be more damaging than Rudd’s valiant but doomed call for party reform.

  11. I was preparing to head out a couple of hours ago just as the Shorten- Albo thing was firing up and I thought to myself I know where this will end up.

    I can see after a quick scroll that two hours of mowing and gardening for my mother was a much more productive use of my time tha dropping in on PB.

  12. WeWantPaul

    [And it would seem today that Martin Ferguson’s support of privatisation would be more damaging than Rudd’s valiant but doomed call for party reform.]

    I agree Martin’s choice to go over to the enemy in the business world really shocked me.

  13. [It’s a declaration by Greece that “Even if we lose, you will lose more and that means you have to let us win. Since losing is winning you might as well just let us win.”]

    Lesson number 1 of the Global Financial Crisis I would have thought.

    If you lend money to a country that is poorly governed, and they don’t pay you back, and you tie yourself to a system that relies on countries who are poorly governed, and they threaten to fall or leave, then “It’s all SYRIZA’s fault” just doesn’t cut it.

  15. WWP @ 303

    I’m not getting into a discussion with you on the RGR backbiting other than to make two comments.

    First, in my opinion nothing can excuse or justify a member of a parliamentary party leaking incredibly salacious material during an election campaign with the possibility of causing that party to crash to defeat. Nothing. It’s like being in a besieged town and sneaking down to open the door to the enemy. If you disagree, that’s your call. There are some in the parliamentary party who agree with you.

    Secondly, the comment re Abbott only relates to that degree of treachery in similar circumstances. I would not be surprised to be wrong.

  16. It was reasonably obvious the Mar’n Ferguson was working for interests of those outside his party and those of his constituents when he was a minister, so outing himself as belonging to the darkside is of no surprise.

  20. [It was reasonably obvious the Mar’n Ferguson was working for interests of those outside his party and those of his constituents when he was a minister, so outing himself as belonging to the darkside is of no surprise.]

    He was my local member. I wasn’t impressed with him. What I now know about his dealings with individuals who could assist his career after politics is no less ‘unworthy’ than s whole host of Lib pollies in NSW who accepted donations through the back door. In fact, his actions are IMO far, far worse morally than most of what’s come out of ICAC.

  21. Markus @ 158

    Nicely argued your decision to support Shorten.

    For me I sit firmly and amazingly comfortably on the fence.

    Both strongly hold important Labor principles of equality, opportunity and helping those in need.

    Shorten’s approach is more intellectual and as you point out, this offers a nice contrast to Abbott. He has demonstrated his qualities with some ripper speeches since being chosen, though at times his attempts at humour come across as a bit forced.

    Albo’s is more passionate, his use of humour is more natural and his uncultured exterior can often catch people by surprise when his intellect comes on display.

    What the Liberal Party would give to have two quality, viable candidates for leader and that’s without looking deeper into Labor’s ranks as others have done.

    Wong for one is wasted in the Senate against the deadwood that the L&NP allow to reside there. A move to the Reps would be a bonus for the Party with her obvious abilities and intellect.

  22. MTBW

    [I agree Martin’s choice to go over to the enemy]

    His only concern was job creation at the expense of anything else.

    No surprise to me.

  23. TPOF @ 281

    Very nice summation of the past and surely provides a nice point now to focus on the now and the future.

  24. CTar1

    After the Chermans perhaps the Greeks could go after the west for their efforts post war to make sure Greece was anything but red.

  30. Due to Indonesian Prosecutor stuff up with paperwork the Bali9 duo have another week as case adjourned to resume next week.

  36. guytaur

    [Due to Indonesian Prosecutor stuff up with paperwork]

    Could we possibly go along with a Prosecutor who messed up with paperwork.

    Hope springs eternal!

  37. Guytaur @335:

    No surprise there. Krugman’s made his (well-reasoned) opinion of the TPP quite clear…and the policymakers completely ignore him.

    After all, he doesn’t have a multimullion-dollar political slush fund to use to help pollies who agree with him.

  38. [markjs

    Posted Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 3:06 pm | Permalink

    Barney..

    “Markus” ..”markjs” ..either OK ..my lovely wife calls me “Markus” so I’m quite happy with it 🙂
    ]

    I have no desire to associated as or with your wife.
    🙂

  39. German debt post -war
    __________
    Soon after WW2 as the Cold War started between thye Soviet and the US….,US govts persuaded euro nations to abandon all claims against West Germany ,now a US ally ,regarding WW2 reperations

    In addition the vast debt structure that Nazi Germany banks had acquired was wiped out and the Germanly paid off bank debts from taxes on profits by certain industries…and with inflation this was soon gone
    A very nice deal indeed for the Germans

    Greece like many other nations was in ruins , with no reperations when post-war Germany whic h prospered and boomed

    interesting that German prosperity was based on debt forgivness

  41. meher baba

    [It has produced some outstanding politicians: Whitlam, Wran, Keating, Carr, etc. ]
    I hope that the Carr you referred to there is not Bob Carr.

    He was the instigator of everything that went wrong with Labor in NSW, and wasn’t much chop as Foreign Minister either, a job even Julie Bishop has shined in.

  42. [Greece like many other nations was in ruins , with no reperations when post-war Germany whic h prospered and boomed]

    Incorrect.

    The greeks got $3-4 hundred million as part of the German debt/Marshall Plan trade off.

    Greece subsequently got over a hundred million marks in reparations from (West) Germany. (Your pals in the East provided nowt. The USSR provided nowt as well.)

    Most of the $120 billion write off pursuant to the present bailout was funded by german taxpayers

    Aid from Germany to Greece by way of the EU membership is many times the greek GDP.

  44. WWP

    [ It is my personal view that his steps to reform the party are really what got him necked (that he was a sod probably made it easier).]

    OK, easy one then – list one reform Rudd was pushing for prior to his removal.

  45. [OK, easy one then – list one reform Rudd was pushing for prior to his removal.]

    What a hilarious question – are you assuming they hadn’t noticed he wasn’t following their orders as PM when that is what they have been quite open about as a gripe? Didn’t he pick his ministry instead of them? Wasn’t he not sufficiently consultative with his betters in the union movement? Is that not radical reform from obedient puppets?

  46. fredex

    Thank you for the link. It seems that Malcolm has now picked up Joe’s theme that we need to be better educated to accept the austerity, not that austerity is bad for the economy at present. :sigh:

  48. [Prime Minister Tony Abbott will be guest of honour at a Liberal Party fundraising event to be held at the legendary East Melbourne penthouse often touted as the city’s most valuable apartment.

    Salta Properties founder Sam Tarascio has offered his lavish Clarendon Street penthouse to the Liberal Party Melbourne’s benefit arm, Enterprise 500 Victoria, which is selling tickets to the function for $5000 a head.

    As well as the ministerial meet, guests can explore what is considered one of the country’s most luxurious apartments.

    …
    Seen only by only a select few (as Tarascio designed it for himself and it has never been offered for public sale), the flat occupies the upper levels of the complex, which is home to some of Melbourne’s highest-profile business and entertainment identities.

    Salta replaced the former Mercy Hospital with oversized apartments, most which over of which have postcard city skyline views over the Fitzroy Gardens.]

    http://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/the-prime-minister-the-dj-and-melbournes-playboy-mansion-this-week-in-private-property-20150312-141szr.html

  50. [zoom
    Nobody said it was positive or widespread reform 😛 .]

    I think an ALP PM being entitled to select it’s own cabinet is a very positive reform. It obviously will fail where either the PM loses the confidence of the caucus or the caucus is directed by external forces such that the PM can lose the numbers in caucus without having actually lost the confidence. years ago I was ringing around and visiting MP’s for a particular vote and being pretty naive about factional politics was actually surprised at how often I got a ‘why are you talking to me I’m just going to do what im told’ response. Members of Parliament, who didn’t even think for themselves and when pressed to would not even entertain the possibility.

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