Last week, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate disappointed Coalition fans by failing to respond much to the morale-boosting poll result the had received from Ipsos. Now it’s Labor supporters’ turn, with a shift to the Coalition recorded despite Labor’s strong two-party result from Newspoll. This reasons for this are that a) BludgerTrack goes off the primary vote, and the numbers provided by Newspoll were scarcely different from those that produced a two-party result of 53-47 a fortnight ago, suggesting that much of that two-point shift came down to rounding, b) numbers added this week for Essential Research and Roy Morgan were both soft for Labor, and c) the very strong results Labor was recording at the time of the leadership spill have now entirely washed out of the system. All of which adds up to a solid move to the Coalition on two-party that brings with it four seats on the seat projection, numbering one each in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.
Newspoll and Essential Research both provided numbers for leadership ratings this week, and they collectively find the Tony Abbott dead cat continuing to bounce, to the extent that he’s nearly back to where he was at his previous all-time low after the budget. A surprisingly sharp deterioration in Bill Shorten’s numbers has also moderated with the addition of the new numbers, returning him to a more familiar position just below parity. The new figures also knock some of the edge off Abbott’s recovery on preferred prime minister. Full details as always on the sidebar.
[Give me a plausible alternative version to the story I’ve provided above and I promise to tap the mat.]
You dismiss entirely the events you personally witnessed on the night of which two enduring little gems are worth mentioning:
– John Faulkner on 7.30
– not even having a challenger on that night until Gillard was bullied into it
– Paul Howse on late line outling that the AWU had formally determined to move support from Rudd to Gillard
They are the facts I remember from the night.
I wasn’t sure at the time what sort of weight the Faulkner evidence should be given (he would say that wouldn’t he) but the Howes story seems very specific and while I might normally discount his evidence I think on this occassions it is more likely than not he was telling the truth.
Now there is nothing stopping anyone dismissing these facts (of the statements) and the claims made (in the statements) and accepting second and third hand gossip shared after the first couple of ‘explanations’ failed to impress Australians where these later explanations have been generated by the people who are the ones in a bad light of they don’t come up with a good story. I just think you are a gullible idiot if you do.
As a Rudd idoliser (almost bought the t Shirt) I watched him do things which I did not understand. I was still with him when he got turfed. It was when the destabilisation started that I turned I will always judge Rudd harshly for that.
[397
Boerwar
Pretty good article, IMHO]
Considering the wackiness of Syriza’s approach, it’s admirably restrained.
TPOF
I just dropped in to catch up on the days events, enjoyed your post @281, well said.
[392
Steve777
Re Meher Baba @352: I don’t have contacts or inside knowledge but the story that you outlined makes sense to me as a member of the general public. In early 2010 Rudd seems to have gone into a kind of funk. He seemed to have lost his touch after the ETS was rejected. Whether he could have recovered we’ll never know.]
I think Pollbludger should get the credit for Rudd’s removal in 2010. I’m certainly willing to accept my share of responsibility as I was one of the first Laborites to denounce him.
On the other hand, I think the blame for electing Rudd in the first place rests mostly with the Victorians, including in particular Julia Gillard. Without her consent, Rudd would never have been more than an irritating, vainglorious loud mouth from Queensland and we’d still have a Labor Government.
fredex @ 400
[It was widely acknowledged by authoritative experts in Australia and from around the world as the best example of a response to the GFC anywhere.
Even ultra-orthodox mobs like the IMF stated such.]
The amazing thing about hindsight is that those who use it most vigorously somehow believe that the view was available at the time.
All I remember is the greatest uncertainty in my lifetime that the international financial system was about to unravel in 1929 style. All of the central Labor team at the time – Rudd, Swan, Gillard and Tanner did a fantastic job in managing Australia through the uncertainty. Leaving aside the alternative universe of what would have happened to the Australian economy and workforce if there were no cheques, no insulation and no school infrastructure, the simple fact is that there is no way anybody could predict the future in the moment when decisions had to be made.
In some ways there is a parallel with the ouster of Rudd in 2010. Everyone now looks back and says how badly it was carried out. But at the time, it was seen as utterly neat, with none of the blood and savage divisions that normally lead up to such an event. I remember Anthony Albanese explaining why he was supporting Rudd in the 2012 challenge when he say he made a mistake in persuading Rudd to not contest in 2010. If Albanese admits he was wrong in hindsight, why does everyone else go around and pretend it was all so obvious how things were going to pan out?
The GFC was certainly wild. I can recall the day in September 2009 when the forex market basically ceased to exist for a few hours. European bond markets were very close to freezing up and the New York credit market was shut to all except the most liquid and best-credentialed borrowers. Many Australian borrowers were totally excluded. We have yet to really recover from the shocks.
As for this economy, Rudd’s fiscal measures made a big difference to domestic demand, but what really lifted this economy was investment stimulus in China. This drove a huge rise in national income like nothing else could. Now that it’s unwinding, we can see what it’s actually like to run an economy in a very-low growth world that’s over-run with debts and excess capacity.
We have pushed the accelerators flat to the floor here – super low rates and an expansionary fiscal setting – and yet the economy is hardly growing at all. In real per capita terms, it’s slowly shrinking.
So is Four Corners going to do a program on the subs, or on leadership?
Final scheduled spam post for:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/poll-roundup-neither-fish-nor-fowl.html
Poll Roundup: Neither Fish Nor Fowl
2PP Aggregate 53.1 to Labor (-0.4)
As with Bludgertrack the shift in my case is caused by bad polls from a few weeks ago dropping out of the sample.
TPOF
agreed. I remember thinking ‘that’s the way to handle a leadership challenge’. Rudd was praised to the skies in Parliament the next day, and treated with respect.
Alas, in retrospect, that was probably the stuff up. The public didn’t understand why Rudd had been dumped.
And then Rudd started white anting.
Those who say ‘well, of course he did, he was upset’, forget a fundamental of Labor party (and probably every party) culture – when you lose an election, whether it be for State delegate, secretary of your local branch, a preselection, or whatever, you’re supposed to accept the decision and not only move on but do your best to support whoever beat you.
Very few people get anywhere in the party without losing some election sometime, and the way they react to this is noted. People who don’t lose graciously tend to get a lot of practice at losing.
So for someone with the wealth of experience in the party to do what Rudd did was unprecedented.
If he hadn’t, he would still be a revered figure in the party, an elder statesman, and history would be kind to him.
Unfortunately for his adorers here, history will make much the same judgements as people like meher baba and myself.
From the Fairfax in the papers today Robb and by extension the rest of the government are absolutely wedded to the TPP.
They see the 3 FTAs as a major selling point, something to say when they sense the carbon tax/boats and mining tax triumphs are getting thin.
Apparently the reason why the TPP is so important is that it is required as part of the US pivot to Asian and if not signed it might send a signal to China, who would now be unleashed.
Never mind they are hoping China will sign the TPP (though I think that is unlikely).
zoom
[If he hadn’t, he would still be a revered figure in the party, an elder statesman, and history would be kind to him.]
Particularly as he was given the Foreign Ministers job a short while later.
Zoomster @ 410
Well said, especially the bit about losing elections.
Rudd’s reaction after the spill, showed it was no longer about the Party and all about him.
p.s. I like the autocorrect version of your name
Zoroaster
Thanks Kevin Bonham
[But at the time, it was seen as utterly neat, with none of the blood and savage divisions that normally lead up to such an event. I remember Anthony Albanese explaining why he was supporting Rudd ]
I don’t know which insane group think sheep were telling you how neat it was the rest of Australia were WTF and the libs I know thought it was the best thing ever.
As an entirely outside observer I can remember discussing it with a lib and my boss at work and my view which has not changed is that it was a stupid thing to do, and even if there were good reasons to do it, it was done in the worst imaginable way.
[He had always lacked what Keating liked to call “policy ambition”, was always more focused on how he and his government looked in the 24/7 news cycle than on delivering long term, lasting reforms. ]
I’ve got a woman working in my team who is exactly like this. She can’t focus on anything long enough to see it through to fruition, is all about the glory and the recognition rather than the delivery of results, doesn’t listen to anyone else, can’t take criticism (however mild), and has pouty tantrums whenever she is shown up.
I’ve secretly started referring to her as Kevina.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-12/alzheimers-breakthrough-qld-scientists-discover-new-treatment/6307026
This is the kind of thing that Australian research can produce. And this Govt, the mob of FWARKING VANDALS, are are attacking research funding.
If this research goes anywhere in terms of a treatment the implications for public health are simply huge in so many ways.
Its really enough to make you cry. 🙁
As one of the (legion of) frequent lurkers/rare posters on PB, may I say thanks to TPOF, Jackol & MB for some of the most considered and cogent posts of my recent experience. I only hope that they are prescient. Penny Wong for President.
Both Rudd and Gillard did bad. That’s why a friggin’ imbecile like Abbott became PM.
In good news, Roxon probably looks back at this one with great pride.
[Australians are ditching cigarettes at record levels, with the latest quarterly figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showing a fall of nearly 3% in tobacco consumption.
The seasonally-adjusted figures for the December quarter show a 2.9% fall in consumption, contributing to a 12.2% yearly fall from December 2013 to December 2014.
Labor attributes the decline in smoking to its plain packaging legislation, which saw all branding removed from cigarette packs from December 2012.]
Both Kevin’s and William’s figures are pretty good, and I think that Kev’s analysis is well worth a read.
alias:
The program being brought forward could also be because Uhlmann was wrong when he initially speculated the week leading into the NSW election?
fess @ 416
Is she also a compulsive memo writer?
[Alas, in retrospect, that was probably the stuff up. The public didn’t understand why Rudd had been dumped.
And then Rudd started white anting.]
I can’t remember the exact order did the party looking for a story to explain the unexplainable by white anting the Rudd PM’ship or did the new PM start white anting herself? The leaks attributed to Rudd and probably actually done by Rudd or a huge Rudd supporter came much later (although you couldn’t rule out some idiot ALP person doing it to get sympathy for Gillard and there is no evidence just rumour and conjecture that the ‘leaks’ whoever leaked them caused damage).
http://qbi.uq.edu.au/content/alzheimer%E2%80%99s-breakthrough-uses-ultrasound-technology
A bit more detail from the QBI site.
[In some ways there is a parallel with the ouster of Rudd in 2010. Everyone now looks back and says how badly it was carried out. But at the time, it was seen as utterly neat, with none of the blood and savage divisions that normally lead up to such an event. ]
His vengeance didn’t twig for me until that first solo Qanda he did where he hinted and gave away Cabinet decisions. That was the first insight for me of his intention to whiteant the govt.
http://stm.sciencemag.org/content/7/278/278ra33
That abstract of the actual paper.
Barney:
She’s a list writer. I think she uses lists as cover for her failure to deliver. So long as she can point to her latest list as evidence of how ‘busy’ she is, she figures nobody will notice she loses interest in a project part-way through.
Out of interest could I find the PB thread from the night Rudd was done over or would William need to awaken it somehow. That night and the following day would be very interesting notwithstanding the substantial population turnover here.
imacca@#417:
Sorry, but I work in this area. Nice research work, but this is what is known in the industry as a “strategic announcement”. It has far more to do with funding than practical outcome. Good politics rarely translates from mice to humans. Mice don’t vote.
2GB after 8pm is even worse than during the day. It’s Ray Price and… Andrew Bolt.
If you’re wondering where Abbott gets his Death Cult mojo, just listen to 2GB in the car (what other excuse would you have?).
We’ve just had 30 minutes of it.
Re. the young Australian kid who’s apparently killed himself via suicide bomb today… “Good riddance, hope it was painful.”
Re. Muslims… “They’re not as civilized as Christians. They’ve killed many more people than Christians have. That’s because Mohommad was a warrior.”
The onto Andrew Laming… “scm”, “idiot” “clown”, “working for Labor”, “Dumb as a box of sinkers” etc. etc.
The deficit… “Just declare martial law and force the Senate to either pass the Budget, or go to jail for life.” (admittedly a caller, not one of the hosts).
“First, sell the ABC.”
Scary stuff.
While the world gets on with relatively civilized subjects, 2GB (and the DT) are 24/7 Muslim Trrrists coming to get us, jailing people who don’t agree with Abbott and flogging off anyone who
s not Liberal.
All said with that ecruciatingly irritating smugness which Bolt specializes in bunging on.
The stimulus.
Some expert responses.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=8
Prof. Bill Mitchell
October 2008
[PM Rudd’s announcement is all about increasing confidence. It will provide money to those who are likely to spend it quickly and within Australia. The $10 billion injection recognises that fiscal policy alone can directly stop a spending collapse.
The stimulus is well targetted.
Pensioners and low income earners do not save much. These citizens have been severely squeezed by rising interest rates and rising petrol prices. The relief will be spent immediately…..
But the stimulus is a step in the right direction.
It will help avert a rise in unemployment and help citizens who missed the neo-liberal wealth binge receive a better share of the pie. It will also stop the strutting arrogance of the free market lobby who should now hang their heads in collective shame for the damage their uninformed policies have caused.
Spread the word …]
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2009/09/if-you-throw-enough-money-at-problem.html
Peter Martin Sept 2009
[Australia is set to lead the world in pushing up interest rates after a surge in growth that has made it the envy of its peers and seen the Rudd government claim vindication for its stimulus measures and financial markets punt on a rate hike next month.
The Australian economy grew 0.6 per cent in the June quarter and 1 per cent over the first half of this year, more than reversing a one-off dip of 0.7 per cent at the end of last year to become the only major developed economy to have grown since the onset of the financial crisis.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-08-06/stimulus-served-australia-well-despite-waste/935002
August 2010
Joe Stiglitz
[You were lucky to have, probably, the best designed stimulus package of any of the countries, advanced industrial countries, both in size and in design, timing and how it was spent – and I think it served Australia well,” he said.]
[That night and the following day would be very interesting notwithstanding the substantial population turnover here.]
All it would demonstrate is that like the rest of Australia, PBers were shocked and outraged that Rudd had been removed.
What is more interesting is that despite evidence of his appalling behaviour over the intervening 4+ years, there remains a small minority of his fan base who refuse to see reality.
rhw
Is the peptide the same in H. sapiens as it is in M musculus? If so, is the same physical structure?
If so, mightn’t the ultrasound have the same physical impact on the amyloid?
(Mum died of Alzheimer’s, so I have a strong personal interest)
[The deficit… “Just declare martial law and force the Senate to either pass the Budget, or go to jail for life.” (admittedly a caller, not one of the hosts).]
OMG you mean the preceding three quotes weren’t from callers?! 😮
Kevin Bonham @ 409
Cheers.
Why don’t the pollsters publish their figures to 1 decimal place?
Surely that would help eliminate rounding fluctuations.
Liquified Natural Gas.
The worlds biggest rort ever & Labor is to blame!
Australia set to be worlds largest LNG exporter,without national energy strategy to ensure continuity for Australian consumers & industry.
& now the arse is falling out of the market due to oversupply.
Will prices drop for consumers…no!
Who was the idiot in charge under Labor?
Was it Martin Ferguson? Don’t worry about the damage Joe is doing this one really is corrupt & who does Martin work for now? BG Group
BG Group largest exporter of LNG.. bloody scandal
Martin followed as minister Gary Gray & who does he work for now Woodside Petroleum.
This is a national disgrace & Labor was too gutless to address it when it happened while they were in power. In fact they “engineered it”!
Feel like burning my party card.
WWP @ 423
[The leaks attributed to Rudd and probably actually done by Rudd or a huge Rudd supporter came much later]
I don’t know what your definition of ‘much later’ is, but the deadliest leaks of all (leaks, not strategic backgrounding to journalists) were the two bombs dropped by Laurie Oakes.
The first was when Julia Gillard gave her first National Press Club speech weeks after taking over.
The second was at a critical point in the election campaign when Abbott had totally screwed up the first week and Gillard was all over him.
In the second case, at least, the information could only have been sourced from the kitchen cabinet of Rudd, Gillard, Swan and Tanner. You can discount Gillard and Swan because nobody in their right or wrong minds could ever think these links would get her sympathy. That leaves Rudd and Tanner. I’ll never be 100% convinced that it wasn’t Tanner, but I note that Rudd has never ever sought to sue anyone for alleging he was responsible. And he has the money to do it. So I think that the only reason he does not try to defend his reputation against allegations he was a super treacherous rat is that there is enough truth to see him lose badly in court.
WWP
[I can’t remember the exact order did the party looking for a story to explain the unexplainable by white anting the Rudd PM’ship or did the new PM start white anting herself?]
Neither. There was nothing but praise for Rudd until the lead up to the next challenge, when MPs felt they were no longer bound to protect him.
Of course, the problem with that was that some people had already decided they knew what had happened, and weren’t willing to change their minds when the real chain of events was finally laid out.
I see we’re still at it.
BB @ 430
[Re. Muslims… “They’re not as civilized as Christians. They’ve killed many more people than Christians have. That’s because Mohommad was a warrior.”]
Obviously never heard of the 30 Years War. Not to mention the conquistadors. There’s plenty more vile behaviour in the ostensible name of religion than that carried out by Christians of all persuasions.
fess @ 427
I worked with a guy who would spend most of his time writing memos. When something went wrong he would produce a memo, to try and prove it wasn’t his fault.
You’d have to think Malcolm is striking now in the knowledge of the upcoming 4 Corners program.
The end is nigh for Abbott.
Barney
I worked with a deputy principal who used to write everything down in a book.
That’s all he did. It didn’t matter what got reported to him – as long as he’d jotted it down, that was all he needed to do.
When the Education Department realised (something serious had been reported and nothing had been done about it) his dreams of being a principal were over.
[I worked with a guy who would spend most of his time writing memos. When something went wrong he would produce a memo, to try and prove it wasn’t his fault.]
OH yeah…
Oh dear. People on facebook saying they won’t buy Cadbury’s for Easter because they’ve got halal certification….
445
“We won`t buy your eggs until they have the traditional beer and pork in them!”.
[ It has far more to do with funding than practical outcome. ]
Could do, research is a highly competative game at one level. But IF the approach goes anywhere close to being validated in further trials, or it leads to other pathways for treatment down the track, the research is well worthwhile.
Barney:
Memos would be too much work for this woman.
BW:
Yes, the protein is the same, and the process is highly likely to translate into humans, despite the functional differences in the blood brain barrier between species. I also applaud the intent to apply unpatentable physics to get around the commercial limitations and constraints of “patentable protein” chauvinism (declaration: some of my PhD work was on lipid inflammatory mediators, which aren’t patentable or commercially interesting, resulting in the usual underfunding for development, so I am both jaundiced and biased).
The problem in practical application of this work to human disease is scale, both in individual human brains (~500 x mass – which matters more in physical processes than in biochemical ones) and the human population at risk- how do you select and apply such treatment to the very large number of people at risk, in a time and manner that is practicably useful? Still, it is very impressive basic work which should attract funding for development locally, but will almost certainly be pissed against the wall by the current horsesarses of the Rupertoclypse.
Barney in Saigon@435
This is a good question. ReachTEL publish their primary figures (but not their 2PPs) to one decimal. Morgan publish all their figures to the nearest 0.5 rather than the nearest whole. Everyone else rounds all their figures to whole numbers.
One reason pollsters don’t publish decimal 2PPs is a perception that it “looks messy”. Another is that if a party “improves” from, say, 53.9 to 54.1, then you get all kinds of spurious commentary about the reasons for the “change” (when quite likely it’s just random fluctuation.)
A third reason is that some pollsters believe the first decimal place is not a significant figure. I disagree with this reasoning and I think that many people misunderstand the idea of significant figures and as a result throw away information. Of course the idea that a pollster can measure voting intention to one decimal place is a spurious one, but then again so is the idea that they reliably get it right to the nearest whole number. The information range implied by a sample being 53.9 +/-3 and the range implied by it being 54.1 +/- 3 are not the same range. Most likely there’s been no real change, but the implied chance that the 2PP is really 56 is higher in one case than the other.
I would like it if all pollsters released both primaries and 2PPs to one decimal. It would cause some additional nonsense but it would get rid of 0 point shifts that might really be 0.9 point shifts and 2 point shifts that might really be 1.1 or 2.9.