Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46

New federal polls from Newspoll and Ipsos land a fair distance apart – the former giving Bill Shorten his worst personal ratings to date, the latter giving Labor a strong result in what has hitherto been a Coalition-leaning series.

Two big new polls:

• In The Australian, Newspoll repeats its surprisingly strong result from the Coalition at its previous poll three weeks ago, with Labor’s two-party lead steady at 51-49. Primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (steady), 36% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott’s personal ratings continue to rise from their low base, with approval up four to 33% and disapproval down two to 59%, while Bill Shorten gets his worst figures to date with approval down three to 33% and disapproval up four to 54%. Abbott all but closes the gap on prime minister, now at 41-40 compared with 41-36 last time. The poll was as always conducted from Friday to Sunday, the sample being 1172.

• By stark contrast, the latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers belies the pollster’s previous form as a leaner to the Coalition in giving Labor two-party leads of 54-46 on previous election preferences and 55-45 on respondent-allocated preferences. This represents a three-point shift to Labor from the previous Ipsos poll in late February on both measures. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 38%, the Coalition is down three to 39% and the Greens are up one to 13%. Reflecting the trend elsewhere, Tony Abbott’s approval rating is up two to 34% with disapproval down two to 60%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 42% and up one to 44%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened slightly from 44-39 to 46-38. The poll also finds 37% support for an increase in the goods and services tax with 59% opposed – a relatively favourable result. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

992 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Fairfax-Ipsos: 54-46”

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  3. Nicholas said: There are many Dr Karl / IGR posters at Brisbane bus stops. It is a highly visible campaign.

    = expensive. I suspect the pieces of silver were piled higher than KK’s metre high collection of science journals.

  4. I haven’t seen any posters. Are they trying to sell the message that in 40 years the doom will be upon us, so we’d better tighten our belts and listen to Joe-baby?

  5. RM

    [The fact that Dr Karl assumed that the government was genuine and has proved not to be should not be used to condemn Dr Karl, it should be used to condemn the government.]

    Thank you for that. I’m astonished at the level of hate being shown Dr K because he strayed on the opposite side of the fence that most of us are on. As I recall, even Chris Bowen was going on, prior to release, about how the IGR had not been released within the time required by statute, as though it contained material that would actually inform the public debate rather than be a set of data twisted and tortured into a justification for the current mob.

    I also note that past IGRs, even if creatures of Peter Costello, have not had the current political baggage dumped so heavily and so obviously on its raw data.

    Personally, I think this country has to move beyond a mass orgy dumping, One Nation style, on someone who makes an error of judgement in good faith. There is so much bad faith bad judgement and bad conduct coming out of the shonks now in power, dumping on others is assisting the bad guys by providing a distraction (although one that has now backfired).

    As for Dr K, I am not a big follower, but there are far too few people out there explaining to the vast majority what science is about and why it matters. Beating one of them up to within and inch of their public life only advances the anti-science dumb down the nation agenda of the cons.

  6. 903

    [I suspect the pieces of silver were piled higher than KK’s metre high collection of science journals.]

    I hope this does not mean what it says. Pretty sleazy comment if it is suggesting that Dr K received a lot of money for knowingly betray something.

    The pay ain’t that great and, unless you are Steven Hawking or you’ve sold your soul to big pharma, scientists usually don’t get what their study deserves. In any case, the implication is that somehow the number of bus shelters with posters equates to the pay received by the person in the picture. That, of course, is absolute nonsense.

  7. lizzie

    [I haven’t seen any posters.]

    They’re everywhere in my neck of the woods. I’m sick of seeing them.

    [Are they trying to sell the message that in 40 years the doom will be upon us, so we’d better tighten our belts and listen to Joe-baby?]

    Yes.

  8. TPOF @ 905

    I can’t help but imagine how many in the L&NP and science deniers would be laughing a the current situation.

    Probably the most well known and respected voice for science in this country is being discredited after being caught up in L&NP shit.

    If I was a conspiracy theorist I might think they planned this.

  10. Sydney Airport refusing to place Labor tax avoidance billboard:

    [http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sydney-airport-refuses-labor-billboard-attacking-corporate-tax-dodgers-20150415-1mll9j.html]

    Figures, when you live in a corporatocracy.

  11. adrian
    [
    Sydney Airport refusing to place Labor tax avoidance billboard:]
    This would explain it.

    [Sydney Airport has paid no tax in the 10 years since it was privatised by the government.

    While other international gateways such as Melbourne and Auckland are also held in private hands and regularly pay corporate tax, the last time Sydney Airport paid tax was before its sale to Macquarie Bank in 2002.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/airports-pot-of-gold-20130822-2segw.html

  13. I think in a robust democracy there should be appropriate and measured commentary about the actions and activities of people in public life i.e. Dr Karl.

    OK so perhaps some comments have been a little OTT but sorry he is a public and popular figure in the community who appeals to a broad section of the population.

    In some ways he is no different to any other media personality who has shilled for a particular product, service or initiative.

    In other ways this is no different to the ‘cash for comment’ saga that embroiled two certain media personalities in Sydney several years ago and resulted in a relatively weak enquiry.

    Those in public life whether they like it or not have certain responsibilities to ensure that their ‘brand’ is protected.

    As has been previously been posted here and no doubt elsewhere Dr Karl has learnt a salient lesson.

  16. Raaraa

    [and either have leave to enter or remain in the UK or not require such leave.]

    That’s where I fit in but still I’d leave it to them to elect.

  18. Some here should chill out a bit.

    I haven’t seen one post suggesting DrKarl should be hung drawn n quartered. Nor have I seen any OTT comment criticising him.

    The main theme has been that he was very gullible, especially for a scientist and given the role of scepticism in science.

    By his own admission and regret, he endorsed a shonky product of a shonky mob. That’s the end of it. Any consequential detriment to him is the result of his own actions and I’m sure he is well aware of this.

    Are the faux defenders of KK really so antagonistic to those here using their public commentary opportunity to chew the fat about a very public stuff up. This is afterall a forum for public discussion about things political.

  22. Here’s a nice new first time pollie showing his support for the IPA. Seems anybody can be ‘an economist’.

    [A federal government MP has called for his side to abandon “simplistic” hopes of expanding the GST and is advocating giving back to states the power to raise income taxes in return for lower federal taxes.

    Peter Hendy, the Liberal MP for the swing seat of Eden-Monaro, has made the call in a 3000 word essay on federalism and tax reform to be published by the free market think-tank, The Institute of Public Affairs.

    Liberal MPs including Victorian backbencher Dan Tehan have publicly backed enlarging the GST but Dr Hendy, an economist, says the goods and services tax is “completed reform”.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/forget-the-gst-give-states-the-power-to-raise-income-taxes-says-liberal-mp-20150415-1mlow5.html

  25. CTar1

    I shan’t read his paper, of course, but I wonder what rationale can be behind retuning taxing, and therefore responsibility, for large programs, to the States.

  26. [Some here should chill out a bit.]

    Perhaps the chilling out should start with the author of this comment:

    [Are the faux defenders of KK really so antagonistic to those here using their public commentary opportunity to chew the fat about a very public stuff up. This is afterall a forum for public discussion about things political.]

    Pretty much every comment attacking KK has been strongly personal – none more so than the one talking about taking pieces of silver.

  28. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, it just puzzles me that he was so quick to embrace the IGR.
    I had no understanding of politics until after I had finished uni and commenced my career, but learned very quickly that the coalition are not on the side of science, which means everything they say should be taken with an ocean of salt.

  29. I have followed TA’s comments on the East-West Link because I live in Victoria, so I thought I knew what his intentions were, but they seem to change with the wind.

    Senator Sue Boyce, on the Drum, had obviously absorbed all the latest Abbott-thinking, some of it rather irrational. A rather loud-mouthed lady, hard to shut up.

  30. [925
    lizzie

    CTar1

    I shan’t read his paper, of course, but I wonder what rationale can be behind retuning taxing, and therefore responsibility, for large programs, to the States.]

    They want to undo the WW2-era constitutional reforms in relation to Uniform Taxation and Social Security. The Tories would prefer it if the 2020s resembled the 1920s.

  31. TPOF

    “Pretty much every comment attacking KK has been strongly personal – none more so than the one talking about taking pieces of silver.”

    Really.

    I thought I’d read all of today’s comments but apparently I missed some.

    Perhaps you could give a few examples of those “strongly personal attacks”.

    BTW from here http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/thirty+pieces+of+silver comes “‘Thirty pieces of silver’ is also used proverbially….”. It is a literary device, not a personal attack of extreme gravitas as you suggest.

  32. briefly

    I’m trying to imagine the unfairness if every State had different rules and standards for – well – almost everything.

  34. Re Bonza @928: which means everything they say should be taken with an ocean of salt.

    Not just what they say about science but about anything.

  35. Senator Sue Boyce, on the Drum, had obviously absorbed all the latest Abbott-thinking, some of it rather irrational.

    She’s come a long way since Britain’s Got Talent.

  36. lizzie
    [ I wonder what rationale can be behind retuning taxing, and therefore responsibility, for large programs, to the States.]
    Just why was writ large during an interview I saw earlier with some Fed government junior minister type over the closure of Aboriginal communities in WA etc.

    It was all “we gave the States responsibility” so now it’s ” nothing to do with us, it’s the Sates wot are doing it” .

    Part of the attraction of privatisation. A utility shits on a customer(s) and the government no longer has to wear the responsibility.

  37. Evening all. I just wanted to say well done Daniel Andrews on getting out of the EW Link contract for the $339 million reported rather than the $1.2 billion demanded. Using the surplus finance to fund the Melbourne metro is sensible too. The $339 million would include work done to date and is only 5% of the $6.5 billion price tag of the full project. More if you include the final cost of tolls and shadow payments over thirty years. So this has saved Victorian taxpayers at least $6 billion.

    Yet this as-good-as-could be expected outcome should not hide the need for a full inquiry. Normal process went by the wayside in EW Link. Many people on very large salaries may not have fulfilled their statutory obligations in the signing of this contract. That a former minister may have leant on them does not get them off the hook. Their job was to protect the public, and they failed badly. As a professional engineer who works in infrastructure planning, I remain appalled. It just cost Victoria $339 million to get out of a contract that should never have been signed. Good evening all.

  39. poroti

    That’s the part that gives me the irrits. Just like the Feds taking $80 billion from the States and then washing their hands of the effect.

  40. Socrates

    To hear and read the media reports today, you’d think that Victoria has been dudded by Labor, instead of the reverse.

    Crikey is playing up. Swallowed 2 posts.

  41. I thought the reference which someone made to “thirty pieces of silver” was an anodyne observation that the pay, not the content of the report, was uppermost on Dr Karl’s mind when he accepted the job. He certainly did not do a thorough job of evaluating the report before participating in the advertising campaign.

  43. steve777 @783:

    [$339 million compensation for the non-building of the East West Link still sounds over the top. As I understand it no concrete has been mixed, no holes dug. All of the work done to date would be planning and some design, done in offices with brainpower and software tools.

    Suppose the equivalant of 100 staff worked on the project full time for an average of two years at a generous average of $200 per hour, 8 hours per day 230 days per year. There’s $37 million. Double that to allow for accomodation, travel, computers and net work gets us to about $75 million.

    Quite a nice little earner. Certainly no sovereign risk.]

    I believe that the contractors would also have bespoke labour, equipment, etc. etc. to be ready when the job came, and with the project being cancelled, they have to pay cancellation penalties for much of that.

    I still think it’s probably excessive, but not by 3/4.

  44. lizzie @ 922: Dr Hendy is my local member, and I was only reflecting the other day how little an impact he has made since his election, notwithstanding what should, by conservative lights, be an impressive CV. His name never seems to be mentioned when Cabinet reshuffles are discussed.

    He’s a few years younger than me, perhaps too young to remember that the Fraser government had the idea of restoring income taxing powers to the states. That enabled Neville Wran to campaign against “double taxation”, and helped him to win the 1976 election in New South Wales. Nothing more was heard of the idea after that.

  45. [932
    lizzie

    briefly

    I’m trying to imagine the unfairness if every State had different rules and standards for – well – almost everything.]

    It would be the same shambles that it used to be. Back in the day, the State Parliaments also had very conservatively-weighted upper houses, which made social reforms difficult to enact. For this reason Labor set out to re-make the Constitution and eventually succeeded. If the Commonwealth were to cede its powers in these areas, the Tories would immediately set out to find ways to divide-and-rule, as they always have. It’s too late for them by now, however. Nearly every significant State power is mediated by the Commonwealth.

    Labor needs to remind voters of the importance of national action – of the vital role of strong public finance and of the central role the Commonwealth has in capital formation, income and job creation and economic adaptation. This is Labor’s historic mission. It’s time they started to re-state it.

  46. Re Briefly @945: if taxing powers were returned to the states we would see a race to the bottom with regards to tax rates. Ditto for regulation and environmental controls if these were devolved. This is what the LNP-IPA-Murdoch coalition want.

  47. I don’t know who is telling me the truth , and we have Essendon as an example of a club surviving when it shouldn’t, but as a glory member if the FFA has it right and the glory is as bad as the show cause of the month notice train the FFA has issued would suggest then glory should not be in the competition at all next year. If they disbanded the current organisation entirely and gave football west a license I guess the new club could be called the glory.

    On the other hand if either FFA is wrong and glory is right then there should be a complete spill of the FFA and all senior staff.

    If glory has been in technical breach but not substantive breach then the FFA should still spill.

    This is almost as bad as the AFL and Essendon!

  48. Matt @ 944

    It appears from the Andrews statement that the $339 million was the money already paid to the consortium before Labor assumed government. On the basis that possession (even of money) is 9/10 of the law, this is a pretty good outcome as the Government will neither have to legislate or litigate to actually return money to the Treasury.

  50. @DoctorKarl
    I have decided to donate any moneys received from the IGR campaign to needy Government schools. More to follow tomorrow. Dr Karl.

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