BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

Another slight narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead on the poll aggregate, which also finds increasingly worrisome personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, all of them featuring leadership ratings as well as voting intention. As was widely noted, there was a big gap between the results from Newspoll and Ipsos, which has contributed to something of a two-track trend in polling, with one clump of results around 54-46 (Ipsos and ReachTEL) and another around 51-49 (two Newspolls and a bias-adjusted Roy Morgan). The middle ground plotted by BludgerTrack now has Labor’s two-party vote down to 51.9% – only a small change on last week, but enough to shift two seats on the seat projection, including one in New South Wales (which has done a lot of the heavy lifting in the recent Coalition poll recovery) and one in Victoria.

Leadership ratings are starting to look increasingly alarming for Bill Shorten, whose net approval has dropped a full 10% from the stasis it was in through most of 2014. Tony Abbott has now recovered to where he was before Australia Day, and while that’s still a bad position in absolute terms, the gap between himself and Shorten is rapidly narrowing. The same goes for preferred prime minister, on which Shorten’s double-digit lead after Australia Day has narrowed to about 3%.

Two polls warranting comment:

• I neglected to cover this on Tuesday, so let the record note that this week’s Essential Research result ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s lead at 52-48. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were monthly personal ratings, which found Tony Abbott up two on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 56%, Bill Shorten up one on both to 34% and 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 39-31 to 37-33. Other questions related to asylum seekers, with 43% nominating that most were not genuine refugees versus 32% who said otherwise. However, a separate question found 49% allowing that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay if found to be genuine refugees. The government’s approach was deemed too tough by 22%, too soft by 27% and just right by 34%. In response to Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus leaving the Palmer United Party, 41% said those in their position should leave parliament and allow a new election to be held for their seat, with 19% favouring a new member nominated by the party and 24% saying they should be allowed to remain in parliament.

• Roy Morgan has published one of its semi-regular rounds of SMS state polling, finding the newly elected Coalition ahead by 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales, and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s newly elected Queensland government up by 52.5-47.5, after last month’s result and the weekend’s Galaxy poll both had it lineball. Labor governments are credited with leads of 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in South Australia, while it’s 50-50 in Western Australia. A 56-44 lead to Labor is recorded in Tasmania, which is more than a little hard to credit.

Preselection news:

• Murray Watt is set to win preselection for Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket after securing the endorsement of the Left faction at the expense of incumbent Jan McLucas, who entered parliament in 1999. Susan McDonald of the ABC reports that Watt’s position will likely be at the top of the ticket, reflecting the Left’s new-found ascendancy within the Queensland Labor organisation.

• It’s a similar story in the lower house Brisbane seat of Oxley, where Labor’s Bernie Ripoll has announced his retirement following reports he stood to lose preselection in any case to Milton Dick, Brisbane City Council opposition leader.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section recently offered details on the Labor preselection in the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, which has been won by Tony Clarke, manager of Vision Australia and unsuccessful state election candidate for Ringwood. His main opponent was Mike Symon, who won the seat for Labor in 2007 and 2010 before being unseated by current Liberal member Michael Sukkar in 2013. Symon narrowly defeated Clarke in the local party ballot, but this was overwhelmed by support for Clarke in the 50% of the vote determined by the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee. It was reported in Crikey that the Left abstained from the POSC vote, as it wished to let “the Right factions fight out between themselves”. For more on Deakin, see today’s Seat of the Week post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,367 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  4. Zoomster,

    I have a host of arguments with a whole range of things you in particular say, but for the most part don’t bother due to your innate ability to twist other people’s words to suit an agenda you have made up inside your own head.

    Like this…

    [So I take it your argument is that Dr Karl knew exactly what he was doing, and his present retractions are hypocritical?]

    See, for all intents and purposes, near to the opposite of what was actually suggested.

    In many years of listening to this man speak and reading things he has written, I can think of no occasion where he has made a political statement, he has given no retraction and is certainly no hypocrite.

    He seems to be apologising for making a hasty decision based on the need for money and a desire to advocate causes he has long been passionate about.

    He is a scientist and a futurist.

    Not a politician.

    Likely he regrets being dupped by the nastiest, most manipulative bunch of pond scum to ever infect the polity of this place.

    Direct your aggression at them.

  6. I thought Jon Faine gave Dan Andrews plenty of good air time for him to present his case, and I am rather convinced by Andrews’ argument in today’s show.

    As usual Faine get a fair amount of criticism from callers for being too soft.

  7. Steven Grant Habey

    It won’t be Nissan Micras that people will be importing.

    The big margins between the prices of cars overseas and In Australia are at the top end of the market and in certain niches, like high performance cars.

    As BB pointed out, car dealers probably aren’t labor voters so they will not be amused by Briggs’ ideas.

    In my experience the people who whinge most about the margin Australian dealers make on imported cars tend to be people who can’t really afford one anyway.

    The really well heeled, like Briggs’ backers in Adelaide, would never be so crass as to complain about the price of their new Merc. More likely they would be proud of what they paid and the tax dodging lease deal they had contrived to get it.

  8. gutyaur

    Thanks

    Raaraa

    I dont mind Faine being tough, but he needs to allow the person being asked a question to answer it without berating

  9. [BlurbUllage

    Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 9:45 am | Permalink

    According to Wiki:

    Karl Kruszelnicki holds 2 bachelor, 1 masters, a doctorate and is currently working on a 2nd masters degree.

    None of these qualifications relate to beauty therapy or naturopathy.

    Any of the Bludger’s who have been so quick to judge the man’s supposed lack of political nous hold 5 tertiary qualifications?

    Nope?

    Didn’t think so…]

    Wow you don’t think much of Dr Karl do you. You actually believe he knew what he was doing all the time and is now lying about being making a mistake.

  17. “@danielhurstbne: Abbott says the $3bn the feds pledged to #EWLink “will remain in a locked box for the first Victorian govt that is prepared to build this””

  18. guytaur

    As I said earlier, BCassidy reckons that Abbott knows there is political mileage to make out of banging on about east west link

  19. “@ABCNews24: Abbott: We saw the Andrews Labor govt’s prejudice and compromise the long-term future of this city #eastwestlink #auspol”

  22. victoria

    B Cassidy is talking out of his backside. The election result was clear. This was an election promise. Abbott is berating another government for KEEPING an election promise.

  24. guytaur

    Interestingly Daniel Andrews said this morning that Abbott in his personal discussions with him, has been very cordial ie different to his public utterances

  25. “@sspencer_63: Was there a state election anywhere in recent times that was not more clearly a referendum than Victoria was on East West?”

  27. Roger Corbett banker and Liberal Party member saying that there maybe need for a double dissolution because the Government can’t get it’s legislation through the Senate.

    Bring it on Roger and see what happens then!

  29. Strange that Bolt hasn’t weighed in on the Dr Karl business. I wonder what he’s waiting for?

    As far as I’m concerned, Dr Karl has shown that he can learn from his mistakes and most likely won’t ever go near anything from the Federal government again (particularly if it’s a Coalition one).

    He was more than just a paid actor, selling his skills for a TV commercial, He brought along a whole heap of hard-earned and well-appreciated credibility. This is why whoever cast him, cast him and not someone from a talent agency.

    KK’s credibility has been severely damaged, but he is trying to make amends by donating his fee to a worthy cause.

    He has his own battles to fight now. I don’t see why commentators should add to his task by refusing to concede that he made a bad mistake.

    In just his commentary on the IGR, and the publicity surrounding it, KK has done a lot to trash the report itself. If they can’t even pay someone to be their friend (once he finds out the facts) then what value is their poxy report? This is the message that I think will become clearer over time.

    I was worried yesterday that they might refuse to pay Dr Karl for his work. Morally they’d be within their rights to do so, given his fairly clear denunciation of the the IGR’s Global Warming credentials. But they might not want to attract any more bad publicity and may lay off. Can we really imagine some ad agency declining to pay their talent, especially one with so much credibility like Dr Karl, because he wasn’t prepared to lie for them once the truth became known?

  30. tehe tehe tehe
    Abbott presser. He is mega-peed off that the East West Link has been dumped. Having a long whinge.

  31. BU @ 54

    [Likely he regrets being dupped by the nastiest, most manipulative bunch of pond scum to ever infect the polity of this place.

    Direct your aggression at them.]

    Yes, please

  32. I should add Daniel Andrews said that whilst Abbott refuses the 3 billion be available for metro rail, there are other projects that may be considered

  33. All the journos insist that Labor and the Coalition are equally to blame for the E-W Link ‘debacle’.

    They’re not taking into consideration the voters’ rebellion against the thing and the shonky accounting that supported it.

    Malcolm Maiden:

    [Labor lit the fuse ahead of last November’s election, by expanding its opposition to the project to include a commitment to kill it off.

    It did so without knowing what the legal and financial consequences were, and its warning that Labor would kill the project if elected raised sovereign risk –the risk that the Victorian government would be regarded as untrustworthy in its dealings with the private sector.

    The Napthine government and the East West Connect consortium led by Lend Lease also contributed to the debacle, however, by pushing ahead with a project that was set to return only 45¢ in the dollar, using Infrastructure Australia’s cost-benefit methodology.

    They pushed the project to its financial close ahead of the election, triggering the first big debt drawdown by the consortium, and they agreed on a side letter to the contract stating that compensation payments set out in the contract would flow if the tollway project was halted, or derailed by a legal challenge. East West was locked in the face of Labor’s warnings, and the side letter was written because of them.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/east-west-needs-to-be-victorias-last-project-debacle-20150415-1mlw1y.html

  34. Well look who thinks its on.

    @michellegrattan: Hilarious – Malcolm and Julie battle it out in the magazines. Tony sent out proxy Margie. Is Scott in a glossy yet? Might have missed it.

  35. The Right’s commentary on the EW Link seems to be based on the virtue of sending good money after bad.

    You make a mistake in setting up the project, and realize it, even change governments because of it… but because you’ve paid 1/30th of the wasted funds up front, you may as well pay the remaining 97% and really cock up the state’s finances.

    It’s a crazy argument, but in these modern times, “crazy” seems to be the norm.

  37. BB @ 79

    [I was worried yesterday that they might refuse to pay Dr Karl for his work. Morally they’d be within their rights to do so, given his fairly clear denunciation of the the IGR’s Global Warming credentials.]

    No right to refuse payment – not even morally. He says ‘go and look at the report and make up your own mind’.

    He has done exactly what he is advocating. He went and had a look at the report and concluded that it was absolutely politically twisted codswallop and now he has let everyone know his opinion.

    If anything, he had gone above and beyond what he was paid to do in ‘spruiking’ the report. It’s nice that he is donating the appearance fee, but I don’t think he is morally obliged to do so. In fact, if anyone is under a moral obligation it is Treasury because he has done the extra yards and demonstrated what he’s been paid to do!

  38. I wonder if Abbott might change his hard line on the E-W funding closer to the next Federal poll particularly if the LNP look like being decimated in Victoria?

  40. [BlurbUllage

    Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Kevjohnno,

    What an ignorant and manipulative thing to say.]

    BU it is the best interpretation I can make from what you wrote. You point out that he is much smarter than me and therefore question my quickness to judge his “supposed” political nous. I can only assume you do not question his political nous and therefore believe he knew what he was doing.

    By the way if Dr Karl was picked for a cricket side would the fact he has all those degrees and is I agree smarter than me mean I could not comment on his batting & bowling?

    How do multiple science degrees relate to political nous?

  41. [ANZ chief executive Mike Smith has brushed aside fears about the crash in iron ore prices and slowing in China, saying a national obsession with the mineral fails to consider the potential of other sectors.

    While the plunge in iron ore prices has eroded government revenue and national income, Mr Smith on Wednesday said it was “sort of self-inflicted” by miners, as it was caused by them ramping up supply.

    In upbeat remarks on the economy’s exposure to China, the chief of Australia’s third-largest bank also argued iron ore should not be equated with the broader economy’s health.

    Despite the commodity price slump, he said the volume of resources shipments remained strong, and other types of exports to Asia, especially services, could act as a longer-term source of growth.

    “We are obsessed with iron ore, and if that’s not working then the whole economy’s not working. That’s not true,” Mr Smith said at a Bloomberg event in Sydney.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/anz-banks-mike-smith-says-we-are-obsessed-with-iron-ore-20150415-1mllco.html

  42. victoria.

    Yes. Of course by then it will be too late. It will be the Abbott/Hockey budget and we have seen how the last one has crippled them for the lat year.

  43. i’m still scratching my head trying to work out what possible upside (political or otherwise) there is for Abbott to bang on about what Andrews has done with East-West.

    Apart from potential users of the road, there was nothing it for other Victorian road users.

    And even the potential users had to wonder whether it was going to be worth their toll money.

    And Andrews has kept a clear election promise by cancelling the road. And Abbott, of all people, is berating Andrews for keeping a promise.

    Is Abbott and co on another planet? Or is there something about Victorian voters that make them so weird that they will be less happy than otherwise? Or does Abbott think everyone shares his bizarre fetish for big roads to the extent that they will applaud decisions to waste billions on them because they are roads made of bitumen and cement?

  44. I don’t think Dr Karl is a hypocrite either.

    However, if his intelligence means he has political nous, then the only implication you can draw from that is that he knew exactly what he was doing in backing the IGR and is now lying when he said he didn’t.

    I respect the man, and thus prefer to believe he was naive, and got suckered into supporting something he shouldn’t.

  45. [The litmus test for Abbott is the budget. If his political fortunes dont improve after budget, then it may well be on]

    And all the rhetorical overkill about the current poll numbers for the Liberals and Shorten will be reduced to Poll Bludger statistical history in the right hand column.

  48. Re Dr Karl: his decision to take part in what was billed as a Commonwealth Government information campaign seems to have been a reasonable one. Of course he was paid and he could probably do with the money – couldn’t we all. The ads themselves are non-political, encouraging awareness of the report and encouraging people to look it up, very reasonable for what purports to be an official report about Australia’s future. Earlier IGRs have sunk without a trace, but I don’t recall them being particularly political, although no doubt previous Governments spun them to their needs.

    As it turns out, the report was a political document, used to beat up on the Opposition / previous Government and to push the neoliberal reform agenda of the current one. It ignored issues that the current Government has decided to ignore, like Climate Change. I have heard enough about it and haven’t bothered to look it up.

    I fundamentally distrust the Abbott Government. It is medacacious way beyond the normal standards of political spin. I assume that any statements that come out of it are lies and disinformation unless corroberated by reliable sources. But that’s me, most people don’t feel that way.

    So now Dr Karl is suffering from a bad case of fleas, having inadvertantly laid down with the Abbott Government. Of course I have no idea how he votes but he has never struck me as being particularly political. In 2007 he ran as a candidate for the Climate Change Coalition, a group promoting working with business to address climate change.

    My take is that he was used by the Abbott Government to give its report a veneer of authority that they are unable to provide except for their right wing base. It appears that Dr Karl now regrets his mistake in allowing this.

  49. Can I add my voice to those who don’t understand why Abbott is banging on about the east west link

    Viewed from afar the project doesn’t seem to have been all that popular from the start and the Victorian election result would seem to underline that.

    The Tories also seem to well and truly out of favour in Victoria.

    I suppose in a way this is typical abbott. The way to deal with an issue is to have a fight. He may walk away bloodied but will be unrepentant.

    I would welcome any alternative explanation for his tactics. Nothing he has done in the last year and a bit suggests to me he of any of his advisors are geniuses when it come to politics.

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