This week’s reading of BludgerTrack comes in 0.4% higher for Labor on two-party preferred than last weeks, but 0.3% of that shift is down to an overdue recalibration of pollster bias adjustments based on observation of recent state election results, which I’ll hopefully find time to discuss in more detail next week. The column on the sidebar showing change on last week reflects the result of the model as recalibrated, and not what was actually published. As such, it provides an accurate reflection of the impact of the one poll to be published in this week’s pre-budget lull, namely a result from Essential Research that was very slightly better for Labor than it looked. The seat projection has Labor two higher than the published result from last week, accounting for one seat in Queensland and one in South Australia. The recalibration has no bearing on the leadership results, for which Essential Research this week provided some extra data. This confirmed Tony Abbott’s very narrow lead as preferred prime minister, while perhaps suggesting a levelling off in the recent decline in Bill Shorten’s net approval rating.
Waleed aly looks in his crystal ball
[Abbott is apparently ruling out everything that’s called a tax.That can only mean one thing, assuming the government still cares about the budget at all: more cuts. Lots of them. Serious cuts. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-budget-is-boobytrapped-20150514-gh17td
ratsak@208
Simple, highly relevant, and deadly accurate.
🙂
guytaur@20
I approve this message. 🙂
Take note Aussie pollies. 🙁
where are twiggy gina and co standing on their flatbed trucks in their fluro railing against abbotts great big new tax on their workers.
why are they so silent????
TPOF
Greg Jennet is painfully slow. Julie Doyle is the other one who does Capital Hill now that Wonderwoman is gone. Funny how bad we think one person is, until they’re replaced by someone worse.
[I hope next election, Labor pit Abbott against Abbott (ads?) and ask the audience which Abbott they believe, rather than what they did last election, ]
Much what Ive been thinking after these two schizoid budgets: one a carefree, stimulus spendfest, the other a nasty contractionary effort.
They dont have a clue what they’re doing – or even who they are.
lefty
But if they say they have a PLAN and its all going to PLAN and the budgets are different but thats all part of the PLAN, they might get away with it. Well get away with it in the MSM and Limited News.
Boris @304
A famous picture which I have kept.
A friend of mine put in a caption something alone the lines of “Your place or mine?” as a response to the particular pose at the time.
Of course, JB will have some thoughts about how to spend an aid budget which represents about 3 cents per every 100 people in Oz while Twiggy is bemoaning the workings of the capitalist system such that bigger fish than him are quite happy to eat him or see him a business death.
Oh, how things have changed.
[But if they say they have a PLAN and its all going to PLAN and the budgets are different but thats all part of the PLAN, they might get away with it.]
I bet it’s a cunning plan…
Simon K 275
[I wonder if he knows what the word even means? I suppose it is juts one more lie among a lifetime of others.
For me, thats what the Left have to work on and practice – not just reminding people of the history of the deceit but not letting the public get used to it or tired of hearing it…..by linking it to trust and the potential for future deceit and encouraging consideration of the motives that underlie it.]
I agree. People knew that “Honest John” Howard was a name given in sarcasm. Labor needs to point out to voters that “Truthfull Tone” is just as well deserved a nickname for our current PM, who was taught how to lie by a pro.
Abbott should be known as the face that launched a thousand promises, the man who said he lies off the cuff, the Infrastructure PM who delivered no new infrastructure, the polly who promised no cuts, then flayed social security, indeed the man who’s promises are all “non-core”. There is ample ammunition to use, Labor just has to fire it and keep firing it till it hits the target.
From previous thread:
[Steve777@1152
Re Just Me @1150: as they say in the classics, WTF? Fascist thinking is just below the surface in many right-wingers, even those as presentable as David Cameron.
In Australia, the penchant for authoritarianism on the part of our Prime Minister and his Government, including attacking and intimidating opponents, secrecy and a ‘flexible’ attitude towards the truth, is a big worry.]
Cameron’s urbane socially progressive act never fooled me. He has the same mad authoritarian fascistic divinely anointed gleam in his eye as Abbott.
I have strong connections into the UK disability sector, and I can tell you there is a real reign of terror unfolding over there, now that Cameron and his violent goons have been unleashed from the constraints of minority coalition government.
The last 5 years were pretty savage, with suicides all over the place, but now it is going to be full on hell.
And these malignant arseholes think they are the pinnacle of society, the best of the human race.
🙁
270
Film and television releases are months late partly because of the different pattern of seasons and school holidays. I do not know if this is what happens with video games. It probably does have an effect but to a lesser extent.
One thing that Labor could do is simply remind people that the 2014 Budget ‘reforms’ show what the Abbott Government wants to do given the chance. The worst ones are still stalled in the Senate and counted in forward estimates. They’ll all be back in the budget that follows a Coalition federal victory.
LU@309: …another cunning stunt from Minister Spooner.
TPOF@185
Just worth repeating.
“Honest John” was originally an ironic/sarcastic nickname for John Howard by his opponents on the left. After 1995, the right and the MSM then turned it back on Labor to claim a literal meaning – i.e. “John Howard has a reputation for honesty” – and the masses bought it. Calling Abbott “truthful” could backfire. Most people don’t get irony.
Just me
Check out this chart from Keane showing % of GDP raked in by the government, 1990-2018. Absolute no doubt who are the Great Big Tax Party.
BBS
I think that in this particular case, there will NOT be much of a backlash against the “forced” departure of Carmody. In this case the VERY, VERY, VERY big end of town want him gone as much as the “lefties.” In the legal profession he has become a bit of a joke, with barristers making jokes at his expense. He is regarded as a fool and some of his judgements bizarre and lacking in understanding of the subject matter. We are talking commercial decisions here ie contract matters and the legal profession is worried they may get some VERY odd judgements.
To put it clearly it is as if the “its the vibe” solicitor from “The Castle” was appointed Chief Justice.
[lefty e
Posted Thursday, May 14, 2015 at 3:52 pm | PERMALINK
I hope next election, Labor pit Abbott against Abbott (ads?) and ask the audience which Abbott they believe, rather than what they did last election,
Much what Ive been thinking after these two schizoid budgets: one a carefree, stimulus spendfest, the other a nasty contractionary effort.
They dont have a clue what they’re doing – or even who they are.]
Actually that’s not quite right lefty. They know exactly what they are doing to try and win the next election. It’s the budget and the economy they don’t have a bloody clue about. Lying, incompetent bastards.
[By keeping quiet in the first half of the electoral cycle…]
Quiet but not silent.
Rather they have been very judicious and selective in what they have said, when, and how. Just enough to keep their basic position and policies within easy reach of the voters’ mind, when it turns to such matters, and allow them to do an easy compare and contrast to the current government.
If it works it will be a stunning effort, in no small part because they figured out it was best just to let Abbott do most of their work for them.
And he seems to have been most obliging thus far.
Which has to sting. 😀
Julie Bishop reportedly told him that he was his own worst enemy.
Got that right. Just a mad punt.
[Quiet but not silent.
Rather they…]
they = Labor
318
Denis Denuto as chief justice. What an idea.
Ta, poroti. Straight into the bookmarks and debunk folders. 🙂
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/spill-plotters-praise-tony-abbotts-second-budget-and-say-another-spill-motion-unlikely-20150514-gh1ix6.html
[Four Liberal MPs who publicly backed the February spill motion to replace Tony Abbott have hailed the Coalition’s second budget, while dismissing the prospect of another challenge to the Prime Minister.
And Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, who holds the most marginal seat in Victoria, says the second Abbott budget’s small business package will be a big vote winner in the electorate.]
[Tuesday’s budget included a new concessional loans scheme of up to $5 billion for infrastructure projects to encourage the private sector to invest in northern Australia.
Green groups immediately called upon the government to rule out any financing for a massive expansion of coal mines in the Galilee Basin in Queensland.
. . .
Kelly O’Shanassy, chief executive of the Australian Conservation Foundation, said “we are very concerned this could become a dirty energy finance corporation” for coal projects that were struggling to find finance from the banking sector.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-budget-boost-could-help-controversial-galilee-coal-projects-20150514-gh1fsk.html
[ Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, who holds the most marginal seat in Victoria, says the second Abbott budget’s small business package will be a big vote winner in the electorate.]
Apparently he doesn’t know how much they are on the nose in Victoria. They’ll struggle to hold ANY marginal seat down here.
Hang on, the Tories know what they’re talking about on double-dipping, cos they do it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-14/budget-2-15-josh-frydenberg-ppl-wife-double-dipped/6469578
LOL. Here’s Hockey:
[On Sunday, Mr Hockey agreed with Channel Nine journalist Laurie Oakes that getting money from both schemes was “basically fraud”.
The next day, Mr Morrison told Sky News being able to benefit from both schemes was “in many cases… a rort”.]
But who would do such an evil thing? TRY BOTH THE FINANCE MINISTER AND THE ASSISTANT TREASURER
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-14/budget-2-15-josh-frydenberg-ppl-wife-double-dipped/6469578
[Victoria is a progressive state where Mr Abbott’s blunt “winners and losers” approach does not resonate. Unfortunately, Victoria is a political scapegoat – used as lifter while other states, with more marginal seats, lean.]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/the-federal-budget-is-unfair-to-victoria-20150513-gh0wq4.html
[Victoria needs a champion. Where were you, Josh Frydenberg, when the federal budget was being drawn up to dud Victoria? Where were you, Kevin Andrews, Andrew Robb, Kelly O’Dwyer, Mitch Fifield and Michael Ronaldson, when Prime Minister Tony Abbott suggested he might double dip on East West funding – counting it as a saving and a budget risk?
Victoria desperately needs someone in its corner. How far we have come from the days of Malcolm Fraser, Andrew Peacock and Peter Costello, when this state had someone in the federal Coalition ministry with clout who could stand up to Sydney-centric leaders.
Victoria was short-changed in this week’s federal budget. This state will get 19 per cent of Commonwealth national partnership payments – and this will drop to just 12 per cent over the next four years, less than half of Victoria’s population share.]
Lefty e
Should we be bloody surprised. What a bunch of shysters and frauds
I have a question for the hundreds of thousands of small businesses that are, according to Hockey, going to “have a go”.
“Having justified a new purchase that wasn’t otherwise going to have been made, where is the money going to come from and how much will it cost you?”
Ha, Frydenberg in that Lateline interview
“an entitlement we want to end” and
“verballing our ministers to say that they used fraud because none of them used that word” (Joke only agreed with Oakes using that word).
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2015/s4235330.htm
JOSH FRYDENBERG: Well I would just say this is an entitlement we want to end and we think it’s fairer for the taxpayer if people who are accessing the paid parental leave scheme just access the better scheme, whether it’s the more highly-paid employer scheme or whether it’s the government scheme.
TONY JONES: OK. But you’ve seen the reaction from so many women about the notion that they’ve been accused effectively of fraud. I mean, are you uncomfortable with the way in which the language was handled around this issue because one of those messaging things and Tony Abbott can hardly afford to lose women voters?
JOSH FRYDENBERG: Well it’s actually verballing our ministers to say that they used fraud because none of them used that word.
I notice Shorten used “have a go” during QT, sarcastically.
Labor should do this ad nauseam for a week or two. I suspect the phrase would lose some of its power.
And the Abbotteers do not like sarcasm, humour or irony shunted at them, especially Sloppy.
psyclaw
Maybe Labor could try “Australians are already having a go, what we want is to enable them to reach their best”? Though that’s kind of a mouthful.
lizzie@324
Reminds me of that couple everyone knows that have hit on hard times but are putting on an act in public that everything’s hunky dory.
Nah here it is:
“Australians want to have a go, but they also want a fair go – for new mums, for health and education”
BK @ 331
There are 3 things a Small Business needs to “justify” a new purchase:
1. Sufficient funds to buy the item (or borrow when banks are still charging 12% plus).
2. Sufficient profit to write it off.
3. Sufficient income to stay trading and repay the loan if the bank is willing.
The Newsagency, which I am now an “inactive owner” of, cannot fulfill any of these. Worse still poor local discretionary spending has led to a drop of 10% in turnover since Abbott’s first Budget. The expenses have not gone down – just the bottom line.
Zero profit, on a once valued $500,000 business, after paying all expenses including 10 staff (full & part-time) with a wages bill of $150,000 p.a.
If it closes down unemployment goes even higher.
This Budget has done nothing for Small Businesses like mine !
From Peter Martin in the SMH
[One day on, the budget forecasts are looking frayed.
The Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that wage growth had slipped to a new long-term low of 2.3 per cent.
The rate is the lowest this century and well below the budget forecast of 2.5 per cent in this and the next financial years, climbing to 2.75 per cent in 2016-17.
Unless the growth rate lifts, estimates of tax revenue will have to be revised down.
The budget papers say weaker than expected wage growth in the past six months “significantly downgraded expected tax receipts”.]
The problem for the COALition is that they expect to raise revenue from ‘bracket creep”, as incomes rise people move into higher marginal rates tax brackets and so government revenue increases.
But, according to Martin and several other prominent commentators – see links in Martin’s article – that revenue will be less than expected.
Which raises an issue.
This budget is regressive.
That is, it hits lower incomes relatively harder than it hits higher incomes.
Persons being paid $180,000 plus will not suffer from higher marginal rates thanks to bracket creep because there is no higher bracket.
Only persons below that top bracket are eligible for paying extra tax at higher rates as their incomes increase, albeit slower than Joe and Marius and Josh and Tony expect.
Its a subtle attack on the lower incomes.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/federal-budget-2015-glacial-wage-growth-puts-budget-forecasts-in-doubt-20150513-gh0s5l.html
I’d laugh if Shorten starts his speech with:
“Lets have a go Madame Speaker…..at all keeping a straight face while discussing the truly black comedy that is the Abbott Govts latest flailing, unfair and inept attempt to craft a Budget………. “
[ “Australians want to have a go, but they also want a fair go – for new mums, for health and education” ]
“Australians have always wanted to have a go, but they have also always wanted a fair go.”
[ Victoria is a progressive state where Mr Abbott’s blunt “winners and losers” approach does not resonate. Unfortunately, Victoria is a political scapegoat – used as lifter while other states, with more marginal seats, lean.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/the-federal-budget-is-unfair-to-victoria-20150513-gh0wq4.html ]
Yet Fairfax editorials urge re-election of tory governments time after time….even campbell and the Victoran *side deals* tories.
[Bernard Keane
Having a good week eh @ScottMorrisonMP? First you compare Joe Hockey to Greg Bird, now you’ve labelled Cormann and Frydenberg rorters…]
All Shorten has to do is complete the “Have a go …” saying.
The full saying is most often given as “Have a go, ya mug!”, and it is what you typically shout at someone at a sporting event who you don’t think is giving their best.
So this is what Abbott and Hockey really think of us – that we’re all mugs who are not pulling our weight.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-ministers-admit-their-families-benefited-from-two-parental-leave-schemes-20150514-gh1q7a.html
Have you seen this it is only day two of the budget and already they have stuffed it up.
This lot couldn’t run a chook raffle in a pub.
ausdavo
Precisely!
If there was a need to invest for productivity purposes it would already have been justified. The tax treatment will not provide the money for the purchase.
I hope credulous business owners don’t go out and make unnecessary purchases.
So, let me get this straight: according to Hockey and Morrison, th wives of Cormann and Frydenberg are FRAUDULENT RORTERS.
[ Zero profit, on a once valued $500,000 business ]
Must be heart breaking – and stomach turning…..
“Australians have always wanted to have a go, but they have also always wanted it to be a fair go.”
Apparently WA debt to climb to $$36 billion and the Libs did it all by themselves without any help for the past 5 years here.
WA households, on top of the $100 a year approximate cost per vehicle for no fault insurance (with country people already screaming blue murder ‘cos they have to pay for the 4-5 old utes around the place) are expected to have additional household costs of between $200 and $400 a year.
Ben Wyatt, Shadow Treasurer, estimates it will take up to two election cycles to fix it all up – regardless of who is in power.
Not so long ago WA a rooster now feather duster.
Honest to goodness, if the LNP survive after this hammering there is no logic in it at all.
I will be highly surprised if Barnett makes it as far as the next election but whoever wins in 2017 it will be a tough gig.
I had to smile as while ABC local was interviewing Wyatt the interviewer ask the predictable question of “Well, what would Labor do?”
Funny how this type of question was never much put to the conservatives at the time of the last election.
Now whose smartarse idea was it to go hard on Labor’s PPL scheme by using terms like ‘double dipping’ – which is actually in Budget Paper No2 – ‘rorters’ for women who were following the rules as stated.
Now it has the Mamamia crowd rightfully up in arms, who is to blame? Has to be an ERC member as otherwise it wouldn’t have made the Budget Paper.
Cormann? Don’t think so as his family has personally benefitted.
Frydenburg? Ditto
Truss? Asleep at the wheel
Hockey? Maybe, but he looked desultory saying ‘rorters’ on Sunday
Abbott? Certainly in character
Morrison? Now surely Mr Rehabilitating Golden Boy would not be so inept? Surely.