BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

A flurry of post-budget opinion polls adds up to a solid increase in the Coalition’s standing, with Tony Abbott’s personal standing now rivalling his least-bad results since his short-lived post-election honeymoon.

Every pollster under the sun took the field this week, and the collective verdict from the six pollsters as aggregated in BludgerTrack is that the Coalition two-party vote has lifted 0.7% in the wake of the budget. The result on the seat projection is even more striking, with Labor now reduced to minority government territory, although the presence of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie on the hypothesised cross-bench suggests that 74 seats would still be enough for them to form government. The Coalition has had considerable bang for its post-budget buck on the seat projection, because state breakdowns (including published ones from Ipsos and Morgan, and unpublished ones from ReachTEL and Essential Research) suggest the biggest gain has been in marginal seat-rich Queensland, whereas Labor’s vote has held firm in the less strategically important state of Victoria. All told, the Coalition is credited with two gains in Queensland, and one each in New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. New results on personal ratings were provided by Newspoll and Ipsos, and they offer no sign that Tony Abbott’s remarkable recovery from the depths of February is abating, his net approval rating now being no worse than it was before last year’s budget. However, they also suggest that Bill Shorten’s recent downward slide has levelled off.

Apropos of not very much, here’s a display of Newspoll’s post-budget polling results going back to the late 1980s. The scatterplot shows the strong relationship that exists between the results for personal financial impact and overall economic impact, with this year’s result indicated by the pink dot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,547 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  2. [Dee

    Posted Saturday, May 23, 2015 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    What can we do?]

    1. Stop ignoring the fact that the Shia militias on our side are murdering Sunnis as they retake Sunni territory. Essentially, we have chosen sides in a sectarian war.

    2. Stop pretending that training the Iraqi Army, which has already cost billions, is making the slightest difference.

    3. Start acknowledging that when Bush, Blair and Howard invaded Iraq they almost certainly laid the foundations for the destruction of the state of Iraq.

    4. Address the $64 question: either the West gets into a real world war two type mass mobilisation against ISIL or it accepts that stuffing around it not working. We are losing.

    5. In the interim, recognise that Australian troops to the east of Ramadi are now in a very significant degree of danger and order them to retreat closer to Bagdhad.

    Realistically: Just bugger off.

  3. Asking as somebody who knows absolutely nothing about Irish Government and Politics, is there a constitutional reason this question was put to referendum, rather than legislation, other than a “The people should decide on this” sentimentality?

  6. From the Irish Times

    Journalists risk becoming increasingly irrelevant and losing readers’ trust by failing to maintain standards of fairness and accuracy, the Press Ombudsman has said.
    Peter Feeney said citizens had access to far greater information than ever before, and journalists should see this not as a threat but as an incentive to “up their game”.
    They should “strive to get it right”, to present their readers with all the relevant information and to do so in a fair and clear manner, he said

  7. [ Think on how unpopular Abbott will become if he officially becomes the PM who ended Australia’s 23 years without recessions. ]

    No problem. JoHo will just say that you are wrong and there is no recession. End of discussion, move on, next topic. Oh doG but recession is just so 23 years ago cant you lefties just let go, get out there and have a go and spend…..

  8. Gee I hope the gay lobby wins it will mean another up you to Abbott if they win .

    Be another embarrassment to the Catholic Abbott.

  12. The great lie that you’ve been told and so willingly repeat is that boat arrivals are doing something wrong. That there are good and bad refugees. The good refugees wait in camps while the bad refugees jump the queue. Except, there is no queue and refugee camps are not holding pens for rich nations to come a chose people like pets in a pet shop.

    If only Labor ninnies could grasp this self-evident point. It would make a refreshing change from their pig-headed immorality and cowardice on the issue of asylum seekers.

  14. lizzie

    You are spot on but let us hear his response to the election he could of course say “nope nope nope” again.

  16. Re Matt @1414:

    [Think on how unpopular Abbott will become if he officially becomes the PM who ended Australia’s 23 years without recessions.]

    He won’t accept any responsibility. With the support of his cheer squad he’ll blame the Senate, Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, the Carbon Tax, the States, the Unions – anyone and anything except himself and his Government.

  17. 1459

    Hollie/Holy family National Sch makes more sense than the Itallie/Italy family National Sch I read it as.

  18. N
    If there really is a complete anarchy out there we have every right to chose our bit of the anarchy and refuse to allow the anarchists to choose their preferred bit of the anarchy on our behalf.

  20. Ireland has an Equality Minister…

    [“I think it’s won. I’ve seen bellwether boxes open, middle-of-the road areas who wouldn’t necessarily be liberal and they are resoundingly voting yes,” Equality Minister Aodhan O’Riordain told Reuters at the main count center in Dublin.

    Final results are not expected until Saturday afternoon in the poll, which could make Ireland the first country to adopt same-sex marriage via a popular vote.]

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/23/us-ireland-gaymarriage-idUSKBN0O717R20150523?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter

  22. Says it all I think:

    Troy Simpson ‏@TroyPSimpson 3m3 minutes ago
    “This has been an extraordinary people’s referendum … This will be the first time lesbian and gays will feel they fully belong.” #MarRef

  24. Apparently there is a reality TV show either starting or just started where couples who have never met before marry each other and live like a married couple. All for fluffy, dumbed down ratings TV.

    Meanwhile same sex couples who have been together for decades are locked out of legal marriage. Way to debase the institution of marriage.

  25. Boerwar

    I like this.
    [Last year, when New Zealand put up its hand for a seat on the UN security council, Australian diplomats advised them not to run, as Australia had only recently completed a two-year term and another South Pacific country would be most unlikely to be voted in. And what happened?

    Of course! New Zealand ignored the advice, went ahead and won the ballot and took the vacancy. And in winning, New Zealand gained seven more votes than did Australia when it had won after spending an absolute poultice duchessing UN members’ support. NZ began its two-year term on the Security Council from January 1 this year. And why did they win and poll more strongly than had done Australia two years earlier?

    Because, say the Kiwis, they’re seen as more independent and less subservient to Washington.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-faulkner-papers-a-rich-treasure-trove-for-the-national-archives-20150522-gh6wdf

  29. “@Rob_Stott: The Australian Christian Lobby has always argued that marriage equality is forced on people by courts and parliaments. Not anymore.”

  32. Bushfire Bill,

    [Some great white attacks aren’t fatal]

    For best then, if the farqwit survives being ripped limb, from limb.

    Irish marraige equality referendum,

    Good bloody deal Irish people.

    Re: Lizzie and refugees,

    That Acehnese fisherman, for his humaity, should be elected President of the future republic of Australia.

  33. [1474
    confessions..

    …Way to debase the institution of marriage.]

    Talk about marrying for convenience…takes matchmaking to a whole new level of practicality…

  34. “@AGFchairman: If conservative, Catholic Ireland can vote YES 2:1 it lays bare the long term bullshit argument that SSM is a vote killer.”

  44. Looks like all 26 counties could vote “yes” #marref

    25 years you couldn’t have the pill prescribed for contraception or buy a prophylactic device in Ireland.

    First vote for marriage equality in the world.

  45. [1490
    lizzie

    briefly

    I hate the Haka. It frightens me. But it might add a little ‘colour’ to proceedings.]

    lol

    that is the general idea…

  46. guytaur – Ireland’s politicians today are less Catholic and less conservative than most of the MPs in federal parliament.

  47. [1489
    confessions

    briefly:

    It makes a mockery of the claim by religious fundies that marriage is sacrosanct.]

    Yes, matrimony has become a spectator sport…sheesh…better be more fun watching than playing… 🙂

  50. AR

    More impressinre to me is the yes vote outside Dublin.

    Speaks volumes. If Australians had the same vote it would be a similar vote according to polls.

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