Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Galaxy poll finds the Abbott government rallying in Queensland, and records next to nothing left of Palmer United support even in its home state.

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, encompassing 800 respondents and presumably conducted over the past few days. The primary vote numbers are 44% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United, compared with respective results at the 2013 election of 45.7%, 29.8%, 6.2% and 11.0%. This converts into a Coalition two-party lead of 51-49, a swing to Labor of 6% from the 2013 result.

A fair bit happening lately on the federal preselection front:

• Joanna Lindgren will fill the Queensland Senate vacancy created by Brett Mason’s appointment as ambassador to the Netherlands, after prevailing in a preselection ballot over seven rival candidates. Her win was achieved despite Tony Abbott, John Howard and Julie Bishop having backed Bill Glasson, an opthamologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd in 2013 and again at the by-election held to replace him the following February. Lindgren has been described as a “project officer”, and is apparently the great-niece of former Liberal Senator Neville Bonner, Australia’s first indigenous parliamentarian.

• The Queensland ALP wrapped up preselection in nearly every seat that matters on Wednesday. Cameron Atfield of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the candidate for Forde in Brisbane’s outer south is Des Hardman, who made way for Peter Beattie’s unsuccessful bid for the seat in 2013. Laura Fraser Hardy, a lawyer, will make her second successive run against Liberal incumbent Ross Vasta in the bayside marginal seat of Bonner. The preselection of five out of Labor’s six lower house incumbents was also confirmed, including that of Wayne Swan in Lilley. The exception is Bernie Ripoll in Oxley, who will make way for Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick.

• A Liberal National Party preselection held this morning for Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax was won by Ted O’Brien, managing director of government relations firm Barton Deakin and the unsuccessful candidate in 2013. Others in the field were Peter Duffy, a construction manager; Don Jamieson, a banking manager; Chloe Kopilovic, a solicitor; Adrian McCallum, an engineering lecturer at the University of Sunshine Coast; and Mark Somlyay, an accountant and son of former member Alex Somlyay. Labor has preselected Scott Anderson, an IT consultant.

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that NSW Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon’s bid for another term is meeting resistance from no fewer than 16 rival preselection nominees. Among them are several colleagues of Rhiannon’s in the “hard left” faction, including Jim Casey, the state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, together with “James Ryan, Amanda Findley, Jane Oakley and Ben Hammond”. Also in the field are Cate Faerhrmann, who filled Rhiannon’s state upper house vacancy when she moved to the Senate in 2010, before abandoning it for an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2013; and Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, who held a state upper house seat for the Australian Democrats from 1998 to 2007.

• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports that Labor’s preselection candidates for the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon include Justine Keay, a Devonport alderman and electorate officer to Tasmanian Opposition Leader Bryan Green, and Themba Bulle, a Burnie general practitioner. The current Liberal member, Brett Whiteley, won the seat from Labor’s Sid Sidebottom in 2013.

• Labor’s candidate to run against Adam Bandt in Melbourne is Sophie Ismail, a Victorian Education Department lawyer and member of the Socialist Left faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  2. OC

    On the Constitution, doesn’t the parliament have to authorise a referendum, if so, wouldn’t it just be easier to pass a law allowing SSM.

  4. 1524 on the previous thread

    The Commonwealth Parliament, or at least one chamber or the other and the Government (this provision was used under Whitlam to put forward referendums and the ALP during its 1913-1914 stint as the opposition with a majority in the Senate tried but failed because the GG (I presume on the advice of the PM, Cook)), is needed to put forward a constitutional referendum.

    I am sure the states, from time to time (especially under conservative governments), regret not having a mechanism for state parliaments (say a minimum of a majority) to initiate referendums.

  10. Will

    Do you think this poll is influenced by the budget or just a natural correction given QL voted in (just) a minority Labor government.

  15. Mike the QLD government has been getting a lasting in the press, well Courier-Mail specifically. There has been a fair amount of payback to the unions in the first 100 days which the C-M has been highlighting.

  17. The last Newspoll Quarterly had the QLD results as pretty much the same as this Galaxy :
    ALP 37
    COAL 42
    Grns 9
    Others [inc PUP] 12
    for a 2PP of 50:50

  19. [Do you think this poll is influenced by the budget or just a natural correction given QL voted in (just) a minority Labor government.]

    Before the budget, BludgerTrack had Labor on 51.7%, so a result of 49% from a quality pollster a fortnight later tells you something has probably happened over that period.

    [I wonder if there will be a federal 2PP to come from this, and if so why was this result cherrypicked?]

    Do you mean state?

  20. Here is an interesting question for psephologists.
    In today’s Carlow-Kilkenny by-election, which as there is only one position will be decided by obligatory preferences, the partial first count is:
    FF 22%
    Labour 21%
    FG 18%
    SF 16%
    Ruari 8%
    What is the fairest way to determine the will of the people in such a split electorate?

  21. Although that said, I have a notion that the Queensland numbers I get regularly from Essential, Morgan and ReachTEL are stronger for Labor than the ones I get infrequently from Newspoll and (even more rarely) Galaxy, so that you tend to see Labor come down in Queensland when Newspoll or Galaxy numbers are added.

  22. Who was saying Labor will have to look elsewhere for seats?

    As William observes, this is a 6% swing from the Federal Election and so if maintained would certainly result in Labor winning Qld seats. Maybe not enough on its own, but certainly a sizeable contribution to an election win.

  31. [This converts into a Coalition two-party lead of 51-49, a swing to Labor of 6% from the 2013 result.]

    How many federal seats to ALP would that represent?

  32. Well done Ireland.

    Now gays and lesbians will enjoy the same right I do to say an informed no to marriage. Instead of having no choice.

    Everyone tends to ignore that side of it, which I regard as equally important.

  34. Briefly

    [Nicholas

    Do you enjoy running interference for the LNP?]

    That’s what I was thinking. As a Green, the priority now is getting the Coalition out – Labor’s far from perfect, but they’re miles ahead of the Abbott Government.

    The time to hash out our differences with the ALP comes after the election – at least they’ll usually listen to us, unlike the Coalition.

    Any Green who preferences the Coalition in the next election is a mug.

  35. Your turn, Australia. No more timidity, no more excuses. It’s not controversial or a matter of conscience, it’s confirming what is now a cultural norm and removing an archaic legal inequality.

  37. Oakeshott Country @ 20: Most political scientists would suggest seeking to identify the “Condorcet winner”, the candidate who, according to the voters’ expressed preferences, would beat every other candidate in a straight two-candidate ballot. Trouble is, you can’t always find a Condorcet winner, because of the possibility of cyclical majorities, aka the paradox of voting. There’s an illuminating discussion at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_criterion

  38. What limits should be placed on marriage?
    Should the laws of bigamy go?
    What of the recent case in Newcastle where a 12 year old girl partook of a Valid religious marriage?

  39. trand @ 28

    No, the Courier Mail pay for Galaxy to poll QLD (only) every few months, and they include state & federal questions. They generally split the results over two days of papers, so expect to see a QLD State Galaxy Poll tonight.

  41. Interesting article Pedant. Instant run-off which will be used in Carlow-Killkenny is not seen as a compliant method. Concordecity (?) also appears dependent on a voter gradient – left to right is the common example but this is not really the situation in Ireland in which support for 3 of the major parties is at least partly based on a civil war fought 90 years ago rather than the classic left/right dichotomy.

  43. CTar1

    [I noticed that KCL made the list.]

    You would not by chance be a former attendee of KCL ? 🙂 ……. If so , well done. ‘Tis a world class institution.

  44. Fess
    Mine too but this is an extension of long standing European tradition that is not necessarily valid in all the ethnic groups that make up Australia.
    My suspicion is that bigamy is widespread in Australia but a blind eye is turned towards it.
    I hope that the case of the 12 year old is an exception but I fear it isn’t.
    The role of the state in all this is much more less clear than it once was.

  47. Fess, I normally disdain reality shows. Mrs Katich had this one on and internet was down so I couldn’t watch the daily show.

    It was actually quite interesting. And the spoiler alert….they don’t get legally married, just a wedding, vows etc. No signatures…

  48. OC:

    I can’t think of one person I know or have ever met who has a plural marriage.

    Ditto for underage marriages, esp as young as 12.

  49. SK:

    If people want to gussy up for reality TV and get married, best of luck to them. You’ll never see me doing it, but each to their own.

  50. My sister married a bigamist when she was a teenager. She didn’t know he was married and it pretty well screwed up her life.

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