BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Tony Abbott overtakes Bill Shorten on net approval in an otherwise uninteresting week in the world of poll aggregation.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential Research, have made as little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate as one poll did last week, although Labor does at least make a gain on the seat projection in New South Wales. Things are a little more interesting on the leadership ratings, thanks to a new set of numbers from Newspoll (which has only one more poll to go in its present form, not two as I intimated in the previous post). This finds Tony Abbott overtaking Bill Shorten on net approval to add to the preferred prime minister lead he opened up a few weeks ago, and which he continues to consolidate. The improvement in Abbott’s standing since the nadir of the Prince Philip knighthood has been quite remarkable, although his net rating of minus 11.8% is by no means anything to write home about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,572 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 72
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  1. The agony of yet another failed Labor Opposition Leader. give Burkey the job now! Conroy your party demands one final service from you – finish off Bill!

  2. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/03/iron-ore-derivatives-idUSL5N0YP3UV20150603

    [VIENNA, June 3 (Reuters) – The derivatives market for iron ore is reaching a tipping point in its strong growth as steel consumers pile in, with contracts traded outside China expected to reach around a billion tonnes this year.

    Iron ore derivatives traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) have roughly doubled in volume each year since their launch in 2009, reaching around 550 million tonnes last year and forming an attractive revenue base for banks and brokers.]

  3. Morning all. Not a great poll for either leader, but worse for Shorten. Shorten should stick to his guns over SSM and other issues. He needs to voters to votes he has a backbone.

  5. Socrates

    [If we are going to have a country dominated with intelligence services, it would help if the people in them had some actual intelligence.]

    Couldn’t put it better.

  6. It sort of looks, Socrates, that the whole ramping up of the “intelligence” services is more about playing to the gallery of redneck Oz than actual intellugence gathering which tends to be most effective if it isn’t being shouted from the rooftops.

  7. Pritu

    I am shocked by your cynicism. Our “terrorists” are not just a few angry young men and mentally ill people. We face a mortal threat! Australia has not been in this much danger since hordes of Japanese approached our northern shore at the Gold Coast, sorry, New Guinea 🙂

    Jokes aside you have a point. We didn’t here all this nonsense at the height of the cold war, did we?

    This story is funny too. Who would be disloyal to our Great Leader?
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-and-julie-bishop-deny-disloyalty-as-accusations-fly-20150603-ghg13d.html

    Have a good day all.

  8. This is despicable. How does it ‘protect our borders’. Protects the Minister, more likely.

    “There is no justification for this iron curtain which has been placed around immigration detention other than that the Commonwealth doesn’t want Australians and the rest of the world to know about the abominations that are taking place under their watch.”

    “This is all about the minister wanting to cover up the government’s mistakes, which go as far as murder and sexual abuse, including child sexual abuse, {under its watch}.”
    . . .
    In a media release last month, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton said the new law would “further strengthen the government’s ability to protect Australia’s border.”

    A spokeswoman for Mr Dutton said there were “appropriate mechanisms for reporting misconduct or maladministration in place”.

    The Public Interest Disclosure Act 2013 provided protection for officials, including contractors who wanted to report maladministration, the spokeswoman said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/doctors-and-teachers-gagged-under-new-immigration-laws-20150603-ghft05.html

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The AFP are on the job looking for the $0.5m paid to the FIFA crook by Australia. And the Senate committee on foreign bribery might also call FFA in for a chat.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/fifa-fallout-australian-500000-stadium-redevelopment-payment-faces-probe-20150603-ghftck.html
    With a name like “Luke Martin” it’s hardly likely this will be called terrorism.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/former-sydney-kings-nbl-player-luke-martin-charged-over-rock-attack-on-lindt-cafe-in-martin-place-20150603-ghfne3.html
    NOTHING about the TPP would surprise me given the extraordinary secrecy surrounding it. Wikileaks releases more detail.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/wikileaks-reveals-new-trade-secrets-20150603-ghfycx.html
    And the Orwellian clamps are applied even more. Is this really Australia?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/doctors-and-teachers-gagged-under-new-immigration-laws-20150603-ghft05.html
    There is definitely something Machiavellian about these cabinet leaks.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-and-julie-bishop-deny-disloyalty-as-accusations-fly-20150603-ghg13d.html
    Only in America!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/george-w-bush-more-popular-than-barack-obama-poll-20150603-ghg9et.html
    Peter FitzSimons describes Australia’s part in the downfall of Sepp Blatter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/australias-part-in-the-downfall-of-sepp-blatter-20150603-ghg0ro.html
    Blatter is toast but his day of reckoning is yet to come.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/soccers-blatter-is-toast-but-his-day-of-judgment-still-looms-20150603-ghflu2.html
    And right on cue the pack of cards starts to tumble.
    http://www.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/fifa-whistleblower-chuck-blazer-admits-bribes-in-world-cup-choices-20150603-ghg9s8.html
    The fall of Sepp Blatter – how Qatar became a bridge too far.
    http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/jun/03/sepp-blatter-qatar-fifa

  10. Section 2 . . .

    Something really stinks here if Adrian Piccoli won’t see the providers of the NSW schools ethics classes. I hope Piccoli stands up to the forces of religion that seem to have Baird by the balls.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/education-minister-adrian-piccoli-not-in-a-position-to-meet-ethics-providers-over-controversial-change-20150603-ghfkse.html
    This SMH editorial slams Baird’s judgment on two issues. And bloody Fred Nile figures in both of them!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/mike-bairds-poor-judgment-on-power-privatisation-and-ethics-classes-20150603-ghfhpu.html
    So Monis WAS reported to the national security hotline!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/03/man-haron-monis-was-reported-to-security-hotline-by-girlfriends-family
    Choice magazine shows how Aldi has MUCH lower prices than Colesworth.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/retail/supermarket-price-wars-choice-finds-aldi-shop-50-off-20150603-ghfjyu.html
    Turnbull draws a line in the sand as Abbott pulls the terrorism lever for all it’s worth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/malcolm-turnbull-draws-line-in-the-sand-on-terrorism-fervour-20150603-ghg4u7.html
    Michelle Grattan has her say on the matter.
    https://theconversation.com/turnbull-argues-that-members-of-team-australia-can-have-different-views-on-security-issues-42764
    Michael Gordon on Abbott’s lever pulling.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/forget-the-leaks-cabinet-citizenship-divisions-are-on-the-record-20150603-ghfyfq.html
    Coalition senators give ASIO an armchair ride in Estimates. And Labor also squibbed it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senators-reveal-scant-interest-in-terrorism-20150603-ghg24p.html
    Three ethical ways to increase the rate of organ donation. Very interesting.
    https://theconversation.com/three-ethical-ways-to-increase-organ-donation-in-australia-42744
    Australia – world leader in deforestation and species extinction.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/australian-logging-and-the-end-of-species,7788

  11. Section 3 . . .

    Mark Kenny tells us the true reason why the government wants to take up time with “debate” on the small business legislation that Labor says it will support.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/small-business-brings-out-the-monkey-business-in-parliament-20150603-ghfyqr.html
    More pressure on Abbott about superannuation.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/6/4/national-affairs/abbott-govt-pressured-super
    Paul Sheehan shows us what he is a bad loser.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/mixed-message-from-samesex-marriage-debate-20150603-ghfy8w.html
    Greg Medcalf starts to talk tough-ish to the big banks says Adele Ferguson.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/big-banks-face-toughish-talk-on-bank-bill-swap-rate-20150603-ghfuzq.html
    Don’t be fooled by the rebound in growth says the Business Spectator.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/6/3/australian-news/dont-be-fooled-rebound-growth
    A lovely headline – Tobacco industry runs out of puff.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/explainer-victorias-economic-growth-strong-but-tobacco-industry-running-out-of-puff-20150603-ghfyqe.html
    And Stephen Koukoulas rubs The Australian’s nose in it!
    http://thekouk.com/blog/tobacco-consumption-down-17-5-since-plain-packaging-laws-too-effect.html
    The calibre of the bosses in the Communications Department comes under question.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/communications-department-bosses-go-missing-says-workplace-review-20150603-ghflyv.html
    “View from the Street” examines the NSW legislation that Eddy McGuire is a continual boofhead and how Abbott fell for Labor’s “bring it on” tactic. He justifiably give homeopathy a good sere too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-nsw-finally-legislates-on-eddie-mcguires-boofheadedness-20150603-ghfzbm.html
    Wong and Brandis went toe to toe at this Estimates hearing yesterday. It was good theatre.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-affairs-chief-peter-varghese-dodges-questions-over-ambassadors-paris-tarmac-snub-20150603-ghfgb9

  12. Section 4 . . .

    How the police brokered a ceasefire between two big bikie gangs.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-broker-peace-between-rebels-and-comanchero-bikies-20150603-ghfwmx.html
    Ron Tandberg on the cabinet leaks and the Jesus reference from Abbott.

    And Ron has a look at the appearance of strange Chinese islands.

    Alan Moir and IS recruitment.

    John Spooner takes into Sepp Blatter’s inner sanctum.

    David Pope and the cabinet leaks movie.

    Mark Knight with Blatter’s red card.

    And David Rowe captures Sepp leaving the stadium.

  16. George Monbiot
    [Universities should defend students against lovebombing by banks and consultancy firms – before it ruins their lives
    . . .
    Those who graduate from the leading universities have more opportunity than most to find such purpose. So why do so many end up in pointless and destructive jobs? Finance, management consultancy, advertising, public relations, lobbying: these and other useless occupations consume thousands of the brightest students. To take such jobs at graduation, as many will in the next few weeks, is to amputate life close to its base.

    I watched it happen to my peers. People who had spent the preceding years laying out exultant visions of a better world, of the grand creative projects they planned, of adventure and discovery, were suddenly sucked into the mouths of corporations dangling money like angler fish.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/city-corporates-destroy-best-minds

  17. Guess who insisted that the small business suggestion by Labor should go to a division?

    [A procedural motion by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten to put the question immediately was defeated after the government’s duty frontbencher in the House, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton, insisted on a division after the Shorten motion was first supported on the voices in a chamber almost devoid of Coalition members.]

  18. Lizzie

    Yeah, I read that silly article in the Guardian, I note that the author rightly coped some flack in the comments section

  21. Lizzie

    The article wasn’t about the GFC and its causes, it was about dishing certain jobs which the author doesn’t like.

  22. morning all

    [Meanwhile Small Business Minister Bruce Billson has reiterated Ministers who leak information from cabinet should leave the front bench.

    ‘It’s an extraordinary responsibility great honour and a rare privilege to be able to be a cabinet minister. And what comes with that is discipline, focus, a full contribution of your insights and views in Cabinet,’ he told Richo.]

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/06/04/billson–leakers-should-leave-cabinet.html#sthash.yOEN2ssF.dpuf

  23. mexican

    I don’t agree. It was questioning how the smartest graduates are ‘harvested’ by non-productive (my word) corporates.

    [Employment by the City has declined since the financial crash. Among the universities I surveyed with the excellent researcher John Sheil, the proportion of graduates taking jobs in finance and management consultancy ranges from 5% at Edinburgh to 13% at Oxford, 16% at Cambridge, 28% at the London School of Economics and 60% at the London Business School. But to judge by the number of applications and the rigour of the selection process, these businesses still harvest many of the smartest graduates.]

  25. Furthermore where else would we expect people whop studied at the London Business School to work, after all it is a business school, it would be like if we acted with shock that people who went to tafe finished up being tradies.

  27. Lizzie

    What! can’t you name any productive jobs, after all it was you that described the corporate sector as unproductive, I would argue that there are productive and unproductive people in all areas of work so I am curious which lines of work do you consider productive.

  28. That someone should be around at 3.24 am, or some such, to make a comment here surely is an oddity. Even more strange is that it always seems to be the same person making the same type of comment.

    Boy, do some need to get a life.

  29. As a civil engineer looking for work I do have to ask – is there anywhere at all in the country anticipating decent growth in construction?

  32. This is ludicrous:

    [The mother of an 11-year-old Iranian refugee on Nauru, who has had a broken arm for a month, has told the ABC her son will be flown to India rather than Australia for medical treatment.

    This morning, a spokesman for Immigration Minister Peter Dutton disputed the statement, saying there are no such plans.

    But the mother said she had received a phone call telling her plans were being made for her family to be sent to India.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-04/iranian-refugee-on-nauru-with-broken-arm-to-go-to-india/6520114

  35. Stephen Spencer
    12h12 hours ago
    Stephen Spencer ‏@sspencer_63
    Remember how we couldn’t vote on small bus cos everyone had to speak? Govt just dumped all remaining MPs and will vote 1st thing tomorrow.

  37. What a funny country we are. Headline news is mainly about a man who defrauded $1.2 billion (yep, not million), spent fours years in a low security slammer, had sudden and public lapses of memory, had a failed marriage, was supposedly bankrupt and is still estimated to be worth over $200 million.

    Is is just morbid curiosity or a sneaking admiration that he kind of got away with it?

    That, with his (other people’s money) he won a useless Auld Mug, sent companies broke and bought off politicians I suppose adds to the fascination.

    What is is about we as a nation that a bloody thief and con man is almost lifted to sainthood?

    Maybe it is the Ned Kelly/Robin Hood thing? Don’t know about Robin Hood, but Kelly was both a murderer and a thief and why he is a national hero is beyond me.

  39. Lizzie

    That is cheating! I asked you, and you didn’t or couldn’t answer it and I am curious why you would think I would not view those industries as productive.

  42. mexican

    This is what you wrote: “I would argue that there are productive and unproductive people in all areas of work.”
    That is taking it back to the personal. I was looking at whole industries. Stop doing a zoomster on me.

  43. Tricot

    did my obligatory reading of a Kelly biography recently (I do this every now and then to check to see if I SHOULD be liking the man) and came away from it more disgusted with him than ever.

    On three occasions, he held a shotgun to the head of an unarmed man and said he was going to kill them. On one occasion, the man was 17 years old.

    In two cases, their ‘crime’ in Kelly’s eyes was that they were police (the 17 year old had merely said that he might join the police one day).

    The two police came out of the whole story far better than Kelly did. Under threat of death, with a gun to their heads, they dressed Kelly down, calling him a coward, and basically told him to shoot, because they didn’t regret a thing they’d done and if they ever had the opportunity to shoot him themselves, they would, because that was their job.

    Kelly backed down – which the author interpreted as ‘having made his point’.

  44. So much for ML’s prediction that the coalition would have more seats than Labor on Bludgertrack this week. Labor actually gained one and would form a minority government on those figures.

    The “Harvey Norman” handouts don’t appear to be having the desired effect.

  45. Even more shocking. Grattan worked out some of what it meant too…

    [In theory the Turnbull line would also give the opposition room to argue – if it dared – that it doesn’t always have to be the government’s echo on national security issues.]

  46. My god, I’ve become a thing!

    I like people to clarify what they mean. Firstly, if they’ve said something offensive or unfactual, it might be that they’re unaware of this (they may have worded a post clumsily, or be speaking out of ignorance). Drawing people’s intention to possible interpretations of what they’ve said/facts they may not be aware of allows them (if they wish) to make it clear what they actually meant.

    Of course, if they did mean to be offensive, it’s good to know that, too.

    It’s a teaching tool – don’t assume the person is wrong, draw their attention to the relevant material, and let them work it out for themselves rather than abusing them.

    Generally (with a few notable exceptions) I’m very well intentioned.

  47. [ABC Radio Melbourne
    20m20 minutes ago
    ABC Radio Melbourne ‏@774melbourne
    Less money to spend: “Wages, salaries, dividends on shares.. it’s just keeping up with inflation” Saul Eslake]

  48. Lizzie

    In post 30 you wrote “Your meaning of productive is not the same as mine, that’s all. It’s not worth arguing over it.”

    In other words you think that we have different ideas as to what is a productive industry, and I am curious as to how you came to that conclusion?

    Not sure what the problem is with writing that there are good and bad performers in every line of work.

  49. Zoomster

    True and there have been many occasions when a comment has been made here that has appeared one way but was meant another (currently covering all mirrors)

  50. Mexicanbeemer @24:

    [Lizzie

    Nice way to describe a group of workers, what would you consider a productive workplace?]

    I’ll take a bash. I’d consider the following firms or workers “productive”:

    – Anyone who produces or sells goods;

    – Anyone who extracts raw materials (directly or by recycling) to use in producing goods;

    – Anyone who provides services that assist the above (eg raising capital, providing consultancy to help them better run their firms, etc.);

    – Anyone who provides services that help others’ lives (for profit/pay or otherwise); or

    – Anyone who provides goods or services that help -those- people do their jobs.

    I believe that those categories capture virtually every worker in the economy – which is good, as I believe that most workers are genuinely value-adding.

    However, monetary masturbators do not come under any of those headings. Yet they are among the highest-paid individuals, and their firms among the most profitable, in the current structure. It strikes me as rather perverse that, by exploiting 20-30 second long, 0.2% differences in the price of the same thing in two different places, they should be so idolized (and vastly paid) as they are.

    Having said that, I would consider banking to be – ideally – a productive job, as it involves moving capital to where people need it. My animus toward the profession is directed at what it is now, not at the idea of banking.

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