The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.
The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.
lizzie @ 189 – it doesn’t matter whether we respond or not, TBA spouts the same ignorance and lies. When he gets a question he doesn’t like, he moves on to another right-wing talking point. When someone proves him wrong or calls him out for hypocrisy or untruths, he ignores it. We can only control our own responses. I will not be responding to TBA in the future.
And it does seem there is a muted response to the latest Newspoll.
One ABC news this morning, locally, did not mention it at all while another made a passing reference with most emphasis that Bill Shorten was on a downer but that Abbott was in an even worse position.
I guess if government friendly media alternate between the rating of the leaders and the 2PP and both are off for your side, then it is best to say little or nothing.
Even the Murdoch mouthpiece on Delroy last night in “What the Papers Say” did not say much at all about the poll but did say there was no cheer for Abbott in it. When your media friends do not want to talk about a poll you know things can’t be all that good.
#141
So let me get this straight.
Mex Beamer says Hilary Clinton should not follow Ms Gillard’s advice to call out sexist attacks on her from the getgo.
The Morlocks are working overtime. Headlines leading the front page of the online Der Stürmer .
[Shorten slumps to record low
.
CFMEU boss ‘lies’ repeatedly
.
‘Ice-cold Gillard reneged on deal’
.
Shorten role in rival’s EBA deal
.
Labor paid cash to beat smugglers
.
ALP mired at election-loss level
.
Shorten has questions to answer ]
poroti @ 194 – Agreed, but that’s very unkind to rocks.
[“The message to those not paying attention “Liberals will do anything to stop the boats and so did labor”. Pretty much destoys the Liberal wedge I would have thought.”]
The message is Clear.
The Coalition Paid People Smugglers to Stop the Boats.
Labor? Well they just Paid People Smugglers 🙂
Yes, rocks used to make wonderful pets.
I’m really surprised that Abbott didn’t suggest that the awful gas explosion in Qld was a terrorist plot.
daretotread @ 200 – you’ve raised some excellent, logical and reasonable points (I’ll be storing your comment for future reference), which is why they’re totally wasted on TBA.
I doubt if he’s capable of comprehending that much information.
lizzie
Abbott didnt suggest it cos it was most likely caused by an anglo person. 🙁
Abbott getting just the headlines he was looking for over his not saying “No” re payment to smugglers. Will go down a treat with his target demographic.
[Payment scandal PM will do ‘whatever it takes’ on boats]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/tony-abbott-says-government-will-do-whatever-it-takes-to-stop-boat-arrivals/story-fnhnv0wb-1227399834451
victoria
Ah – of course. Although he can twist almost anything.
[it doesn’t matter whether we respond or not, TBA spouts the same ignorance and lies]
Which is why it is a gold-plated troll. And why I slide over both its posts and the replies to them.
[I suggest that people completely and utterly ignore TrueBlueAussie. He has shown no ability or interest in listening to the views of others. He is merely interested in parading his ignorance and spouting his lies and right-wing propaganda.]
I am only a sporadic poster but avid reader of this blog and appreciate much of the commentary provided here. So apologies in advance for what needs to be another ‘drive-by’ post as I simply do not have the time in my day to engage in discussion much.
Look, I think TBA is probably a fair representation of the average Australian. I am always amazed at the belief of many here that somehow, out there, most Australians are as disgusted about this government as those inside this echo chamber. Or care about what is being done to this nation in their name.
Look at the polls.
There’s hardly anything in it that can’t be overcome with some deft political tactics, something the Libs are much better at than Labor.
The Libs play the average voter much better than Labor. They know that all the average Australian really cares about is their hip pocket, and keeping the riff-raff out (of their suburb, their city, their country). Let’s face that simple fact, so frequently confirmed in the public debate.
Few hold those noble notions often aired here with enough conviction that they would let them come between themselves and a few monetary morsels thrown their way by the evil guvn’ment. That attitude gave us Howard, then Abbott. In between, Labor managed to self-destruct.
Australia deserves Abbott and his ilk. The average Australian doesn’t do ‘facts’. Or much thinking. For them, no matter what argument is put forth, the debate, if one ensues, always ends in ‘One’s as bad as the other’.
They don’t do nuanced argument. That there is a difference in how Labor paid people smugglers as opposed to what is alleged the Libs have done is way too subtle to register.
They’re too busy.
They want to be left alone while times are good, and come screaming for help when they are not that good. We had over 20 years without recession. This may well change in the not too distant future.
I would like to see the Libs in power then, and having to battle it out, when that time comes. They can show their mettle then. It will be a revelation. Just not in the way TBA might think.
Nations need to go through periods of collective suffering of some kind or other every now and then to realise the people that make up a nation are dependent on each other. Right now, too many think they can go it alone, and bugger the next guy: he/she must be a ‘leaner’.
Hold on to your seats. It’s going to get rough(er). Let’s hope we come out the other end more together than we are at the moment.
It occasionally helps to remember that everything the Coalition does has to be seen through the prism of politics. Nothing is for the “good of the country”.
When Labor were in power, it was in their political interest for the economy to fail, unemployment to rise and the population to suffer. As a result, we saw constant talking down of the economy, criticism of economic stimulus and deliberate sabotage of long-term government policies.
When Labor were in power, it was in their interests for asylum seekers to flood across the ocean, regardless of physical risks. As a result, they loudly proclaimed how “soft” our laws were (despite mandatory, indefinite offshore detention) and how easy it was for these “illegals” to gain access to all sorts of welfare and comforts. They actively voted and railed against policies such as the Malaysia asylum seeker swap despite it being precisely the type of policy they have since adopted with Cambodia.
There is no point trying to examine or judge their actions on any merits other than their expected political effectiveness.
[TrueBlueAussie
Posted Tuesday, June 16, 2015 at 8:40 am | PERMALINK
OH F#CKING SNAP!]
OH, FUCK OFF.
Apparently some movement in Essential, but B Keane won’t say which way.
Brenda Loots – you may very well be right, but I think that those of us, like you and I and the vast majority of people on PB who are fans of well-thought out arguments and intellectual back-and-forth, are entitled to this tiny island of sanity in a vast ocean of greed, selfishness and malignancy not to mention unbridled contempt for reason, facts and truth.
There is no equivalence between what this Govt has done & what all other Australian & indonesian Govts have done in trying to disrupt/stop people trafficking..
This Govt has apprehended people smugglers in the commission of a criminal act. A crime in both Indonesia & Australia. Previously people smugglers caught in the act, have been prosecuted and jailed.
This Govt has failed to prosecute any people smugglers. Instead they have given them the means to continue plying their trade ..with new boats & equipment ..and now with cash.
This was NEVER done by the previous Labor Govt.
All activity up until the Coalition introduced their turn-back policy had been aimed at PREVENTING the commission of the criminal act of people trafficking. The Coalition are now in the business of supplying equipment and cash to the people smugglers so that they can CONTINUE to ply their illegal and dangerous people trafficking activity. In other words, this Govt is now an active player in the people trafficking racket.
Blind Freddy can see that this illegal and immoral activity by our Govt cannot continue indefinitely.
Our Media are not only blind to this fact ..but are also deaf, dumb and incredibly irresponsible..
Brenda Loots
Your observations for the most part are on the money.
That is the most depressing part. 🙁
Talk later bludgers
psyclaw
Yes, I think at this stage Clinton should focus on building movement whilst the Republicans go though the process of belting one another up.
Its the kind of weapon that could if combined with what ever comes out of the Republican primaries could act as a very effective campaign tool.
America has a more macho culture so tactically its the kind of weapon which on its own wont be as effective, of course in saying that, if the Republicans start it then she should unleash all hell upon them.
I noted our host has responded to TBA but fat lot of difference it makes.
As soon as I see To Be Announced, I hop, skim and jump. TBA is to this poll as is a tick is to the back of a sheep.
Glad the sheep has the tick.
movement = momentum
Good morning all,
I do not know how labor intends to respond to the development this morning re payments to people smugglers but it seems to my limited intellect pretty straight forward.
On one hand you have Australian authorities working with Indonesia and therefore with the approval of the Indonesian government to break illegal syndicates at point of origin by paying for information which could result in convictions against smugglers and their operations broken.
On the other hand you have Australian Navy and or customs vessels intercepting boats on the high seas and paying crew members to turn around and go back to Indonesia. All done without the knowledge and cooperation of Indonesia with the only result being opportunity for the criminals to come back again and put their heads in the trough and endanger AS in unsafe boats over and over again.
No real contest I would think and as the old saying goes ‘in for a penny, in for a pound ‘ so I would hope labor continues the specific attack on paying money on the high seas to smugglers.
We shall see.
Cheers.
Brenda Loots
All sad but true.
[Apparently some movement in Essential, but B Keane won’t say which way.]
My guess would be ALP 53-47.
Just speculation of course but I think with the movement in the last bludgertrack we can surmise that last week’s part of the essential sample was a bit better for Labor (I think I remember William saying he wanted to get the weekly breakdown from them before finalising the numbers), so it wouldn’t surprise me if Essential has ticked over the 52.5 to Labor.
I predicted Newspoll’s move towards the Libs simply on their record of being so bouncy for the last few months. Looks like they’ve caught a bad sample for Labor (conversely good for the Greens) which would explain the low Labor primary and Shorten approval.
So my 2c is on an Essential 53-47 to confirm that the ‘recovery’ for the government has run it’s course and if anything maybe a bit of a tick back to the Opposition around the 52.5+ mark when William runs the bludgertrack again.
Put next week in your Calendar, it’s the Killing Season.
No not show… that’s on tonight… the calendar event.
Last week of sitting parliament for the Winter break in which Labor leaders get very nervous.
Totally understand why Ley would avoid answering questions on this issue, but surely Cathy McGowan should be raising some, rather than ‘politely declining’ to comment —
http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/3149129/ministers-quiet-on-people-smuggling/?cs=11
Wasn’t it funny last night to see creepy, highly politicised, senior statutory officer, Bishop, lecturing Trigg on the politicisation of statutary officers?
Calling our parliamentary system “Ausminster” is not an excuse for Bishop’s behaviour.
There’s only two party leaders in the Federal Parliament who aren’t guaranteed to lead their parties to the next election. They are currently the PM and DPM.
Bonnie becomes so entranced when Libs (Abbott especially) are ranting their non-answers that she doesn’t even see Labor stand at the dispatch box. Of course, it might just be age, deafness and lack of peripheral vision 😉
Having said that I would not respond to the Troll, this comes up to tempt me too much:
[Put next week in your Calendar, it’s the Killing Season.
No not show… that’s on tonight… the calendar event.
Last week of sitting parliament for the Winter break in which Labor leaders get very nervous.]
The thing about the ‘killing season’ is that it is not limited to the Labor side of politics. Indeed, it is reflective of the heightened anxiety that comes at the end of every Parliamentary sittings when your side – and especially your leader – is doing particularly badly.
At this stage, there is only one bunch with a particularly hunted – and haunted – look as the killing season approaches. Won’t say who, but Captain Chaos is looking particularly chaotic and uncontrolled at the moment.
BB,
The audience seemed to have a good grip on the matter.
TPOF,
Joe is looking very shaky.
BTW,
For those feeling a tad down this morning the Lowy Institute has released its yearly survey on sentiment in Australia.
As part of that it asked Australians to rate the performance of the government on AS. All they got was 4.9 out of 10. Not exactly a ringing endorsement in what was overall a negative feeling this year across the board.
So I suppose we may have a tendency to overplay the public response to individual issues. In most polling I have seen asking respondents to rate their major issues of concern AS is consistently not a top issue with jobs economy ranking up the top.
The Lowy survey does give one pause for thought and plenty to ponder.
Cheers.
I left out an r in Bronnnie. No, she’s not a bonnie lass.
[Looks like I spoke way too soon at 146 when I suggested that Fairfax had done some investigative journalism. ]
Commentariat journalists who do not belong to “That Media Over There” are now sitting in their offices waiting for the phone calls with inside story leaks on how to figure an angle that puts Labor in a bad light.
They read each other’s stories and comment on them in the meantime.
Group Think rules require all the pundits to take up each other’s yarns and add spin, then publish as all their own work.
There is no requirement for any “investigative journalism” or even the slightest curiosity about what actually happened. All they need to do is craft “he said/he said” hype that inevitably ends up as “both sides do it”, therefore nothing to see here.
It has all the depth and insight of a story on the relative bum-size of various Kardashians in New Weekly.
They dress it up as momentous commentary, but really all it is is the same, very small kernel of half-known facts, repolished and honed to perfection with supposition and political spinnery.
They are totally useless without The Drip.
[Nations need to go through periods of collective suffering of some kind or other every now and then to realise the people that make up a nation are dependent on each other. Right now, too many think they can go it alone, and bugger the next guy: he/she must be a ‘leaner’.]
I wonder how much suffering is sufficient to wake the peeps out of their stupor. Arguably the UK has suffered more from the global economic downturn than Australia but they have just voted for another five years of Austerity (well 30-odd percent of them anyway), another half decade of government by corporate shills and warmongers. I would hope that Shorten isn’t as tainted by the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd imbroglio as Milliband was by the Blair/Brown disaster, but I’m sure the Murdoch/ABC consortium will be able to assist there.
To read the commentariat, you’d think that Shorten was the only person involved in either of the leader changes.
mexican
In my experience, ‘macho’ men actually respond with respect when a woman stands up to them.
Whenever I’ve chaired a meeting, some man (usually about ten years older than me) will challenge one of my rulings (in a way they wouldn’t if the chair was male).
If I let it slide, they do it again.
If I assert myself, not only do they stop, but they are far more positive towards me.
Strangely, males don’t get this. I’ve been taken aside by men and told “Oh, you were too harsh on him. You should have handled that differently.” (Only to admit later that it worked).
Of course Clinton should call out sexism when she sees it. She should also call out racism, ageism, religious prejudice or any other kind of discrimination she observes, whether it’s directed at her or others.
As should we all.
Labor will never win a “boats” issue against Abbott. Trouble is Abbott has popular support regardless of the lack of ethics.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-confirms-labor-will-oppose-scott-morrisons-proposed-budget-pension-changes-20150616-ghovpw
More detail in the article.
Good Morning.
I see MarkJS has beat me to it about the meme from the media and LNP.
Basically the two wrongs make a right argument. Which even if it had been factual would still be wrong.
I am hoping Labor will continue to prosecute the case. I actually think Labor will I just have a niggling doubt until I see it.
The LNP are desperate because this is destroying their oh so lovely wedge. In the vernacular their backs are to the wall and will be ferocious in their last defence.
[Stopping the boats has improved Australia’s relations with Indonesia, Prime Minister Tony Abbott claimed on Tuesday.
This is despite an escalation of diplomatic tensions between the two countries over claims Australian officials paid people smuggling crews to turn back boats carrying asylum seekers and return to Indonesia.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/stopping-the-boats-has-improved-australias-relationship-with-indonesia-tony-abbott-20150616-ghotw3.html
Depressingly @243 this is probably so…but I do remember a Crikey article some months/years ago in which the question of morality and stop the boats – as opposing choices for the Oz electorate – was not a forgone conclusion that ‘what it takes’ will always win out.
The writer – forget now – harked to many occasions when the pendulum – feeling of guilt I guess – swings to the sensible/compassionate.
It must be remembered that it was Labor which got detention stuff going as it was that Labor adopted the “nobody settles here who comes in boats” so neither party has much to crow about.
Fear and loathing are powerful emotions but I do not trust the conservatives to handle this mixture well.
Zoomster I agree with you, my point was more to do with the idea that she should jump the gun, this I feel will give away a potential weapon.
dwh
Labor will win a battle on boats. They did with children overboard. It took 9/11 to get support for Howard.
The myth has been created that it was AS and Tampa that changed the polls to a winning position so it has become accepted folklore. Its not the reality.
davidwh
[ Labor will never win a “boats” issue against Abbott. Trouble is Abbott has popular support regardless of the lack of ethics. ]
While there are some who would condone breaking the law to stop asylum seekers, by and large these are the same nut-jobs that wouldn’t hesitate to sink the boats with all hands.
But the ALP should not pander to such people and should continue to point out that bribery is illegal and corrupt, and must be investigated and dealt with according to law.