The third poll of our current cycle is better for the Coalition than the other two, recording Labor’s lead narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 14% for the Greens. There are also remarkably poor personal ratings for Bill Shorten, who is on 28% approval (down four on the last poll and seven on the one before) and 54% disapproval (up four on the last poll eight on the one before). Tony Abbott has also gone backwards, down four on approval to 34% and up three on disapproval to 56%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Abbott’s 41-38 lead comparing with 41-37 last time. Hat tip: James J. This will be final Newspoll for The Australian before the brand name transfers to the new management of Galaxy.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly reading from Essential Research is once again steady at 52-48, although the Coalition is up a point on the primary vote at Labor’s expense, respectively putting them at 42% and 39%, with the Greens are up one to 10%. The poll also features the semi-regular result on trust in various institutions, with across-the-board improvement of between 2% and 8% since January, the biggest movers being state parliaments, the High Court, the Reserve Bank, environmental groups and local government. Police forces, the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank continue to rate highest, and political parties lowest. Doctors rate as the most trusted profession, at 81% for a lot of or some trust, and real estate agents and politicians lowest, at 12% and 11%.
The poll also includes questions on housing affordability, as did the the weekend’s Ipsos poll. The latter was of perhaps more interest in that it provided a separate result for Sydney, where 80% of respondents rated it unaffordable for first home buyers compared with 57% nationally. The Essential poll had the latter figure at 60%, and found 75% saying it had become less affordable over the past few years compared with only 11% for more affordable.
Trouble is now the issue is not about giving people smugglers money but about under what circumstances it is ok to do so. I doubt most people care to consider deeply the differences providing the boats don’t come.
Abbott seems to have played the issue politically smart. He does that every now and then on issues he is comfortable with.
[240
theodric
I wonder how much suffering is sufficient to wake the peeps out of their stupor. Arguably the UK has suffered more from the global economic downturn than Australia but they have just voted for another five years of Austerity (well 30-odd percent of them anyway),…]
A serious warning lesson, to be sure. But winning with 30% of the primary is far harder under our voting system, and our upper house is more powerful and effective than the UK’s.
An addendum to my post to DWH.
To get an idea how the right side of politics treats poll results look no further than their use of old polling to pretend there is more opposition against SSM than their actuall is.
DWH
Abbott keeps saying within the law. These payments are not within the law. Thats the point on which Labor wins.
Not the legality or not because that is where Abbott wants the debate. Labor wins by the point Tony Jones made last night. Abbott has moved the sugar from the table to the boats
“The Libs play the average voter much better than Labor.”
A line from Brenda Loots’ disturbingly apposite piece above, to be read in conjunction with Bob’s Uncle’s contribution below it.
They’re just better at taking a cynical advantage of the zeitgeist, & of course having their media create that zeitgeist is a big help.
Who knows, a future liberal leader may actively advance the building of a FTTP NBN, another may declare Big Mining to be rorters & so it will go. But in accordance with what Bob’s Uncle said.
Still not convinced Labor will pursue the boat payments much longer. Media has set their stall – Labor paid boats too, now they’re just being soft and hypocritical about it. Relying on the electorate to see through the spin is a huge, huge gamble.
Trouble is Guytaur if ASIS paid money to people it probably isn’t outside the law and ASIS would likely any payments were for purposes other than returning UA’s to Indonesia. If ASIS made the payments then even SHY will struggle to get to the truth.
The issue will die pretty quickly I think.
the Libs will be happy this morning with the media conflation of intelligence operations IN Indonesia under the previous Govt, and handing out cash at sea. 🙁
Taps straight into the “they are all the same” theme that makes for such easy stories, panders to the ignorant and protects their Tony’s successor?
Operations to stop people getting on boats in the first place makes sense.
Operations that have people who were under the control of Australian authorities sent back to Indonesia, without the express consent of the Indonesians are bad enough.
Paying the People Smugglers to conduct those operations on our behalf is utterly ridiculous. Its not just a difference in degree.
What, are the Coalition now happy to contract out Australian Security and Intelligence operations to random dudes with boats met in our Northern approaches??
[ probably isn’t outside the law and ASIS would likely argue any payments were for purposes other than returning UA’s to Indonesia]
word added to correct sorry.
Good = Coal
Bad if Labor does it.
Typical bullshit PB, typical bullshit media.
Brenda Loots + Bob’s Uncle
2 very sobering posts, as Jimmy Doyle points out at least we have this place to come to & air our frustrations.
DWH
A couple of things. Whatever it takes is not the rule of law.
Indonesia is crystal clear on its reaction and they are calling it bribery in public.
2nd The Greens who have never been in government have not directed ASIS in any way to pay any people smugglers so they can and will pursue the issue im ways Labor just cannot with the muddy waters getting in the way.
3rd
Its part of a pattern. Trashing our democracy for political gain on the road to fascism and this is something Labor can and will use by pointing out the breaches of standards that make Australia a democracy without using the word fascist.
So no the issue will not go away. I have seen manhy LNP leaning people say this as if its an argument to stop holding the government to account.
davidwh
[ Trouble is now the issue is not about giving people smugglers money but about under what circumstances it is ok to do so. I doubt most people care to consider deeply the differences providing the boats don’t come.
Abbott seems to have played the issue politically smart. He does that every now and then on issues he is comfortable with. ]
My point was that such thinking typifies the people that the ALP won’t ever win over anyway – so they should not worry about people like you, and instead concentrate on winning over those people that still hold the law in some esteem.
[ The issue will die pretty quickly I think. ]
Possible. Once it moves on to a powerful but somewhat nuanced argument people tend to disengage. And the Libs really need people to be disengaged at the moment.
Will be interesting to see how the distinctions get made (if they do) between payouts at sea and operations in Indonesia.
I dont think that actual ASIS people will ever be held to account given the immunities they have, but certainly, Ministers should be held to account over this.
This all has the feel of run up to an election –
– Royal visit – check. I wonder if abbott invited Harry ?
– Khaki memes abound – check
– abbott demanding his cancellation of citizenship bill be passed before Parliament rises for the long Winter break.
If Labor refuse as he wants – be has so called ‘pretext’.
But would he call a winter election ? Or ramp up the propaganda on Labor until August resumption of Parliament – then call an early election ?
david – broadly agree with that. Even if people care about the distinction between running an intelligence operation overseas and running an intelligence operation off a boat – which is how it would be spun, regardless of what those payments were actually for – getting them to realise that’s the distinction being made is near impossible, I would think.
The vague wave of ASIS operations shuts this down as an issue. The fact Labor “was at it too” – they weren’t, of course, but that’s no longer relevant – just makes it something for Labor to avoid even more strongly. Hopefully the Greens and perhaps Wilkie won’t let it die entirely, but I don’t see it making it through the next few media cycles.
TD
A good way for Labor to make the difference clear to people.
Quote Indonesian officials. No Labor government has ever been accused of bribery by another government in this way.
[A couple of things. Whatever it takes is not the rule of law.]
Agree.
[Indonesia is crystal clear on its reaction and they are calling it bribery in public.]
What you would expect Indonesia to do but don’t see how that is relevant to Australian law.
[2nd The Greens who have never been in government have not directed ASIS in any way to pay any people smugglers so they can and will pursue the issue im ways Labor just cannot with the muddy waters getting in the way.]
Agree the Greens can pursue it but if ASIS is involved it won’t get very far.
dwh
Australian law applies to ASIS on Australian soil.
If its outside Australia and involves Indonesian nationals on international waters what Indonesia says is very important.
guytaur – after the Bali 9 executions, is the word of Indonesian officials really going to trump Abbott draping himself in the protecting Australia flag? I doubt it.
“Indonesian officials” aren’t exactly most Australians’ go to source for trusted information about the alleged wrongdoing of Australian spies, I would assume.
LGreens presser now
A reminder how the public is likely to see it as cartoonists usually call it
@moir_alan: The Sharks are Circling Again #auspol #smh #abbott http://t.co/mUpD41TKaU
[so they should not worry about people like you]
A really silly statement because on many issues, and specifically on this issue, I actually hold very strong beliefs against both this government and the previous government’s actions and attitudes towards UA’s. No one here has ever seen me post anything supporting the current border protection policies because simply I don’t.
“@shanebazzi: .@RichardDiNatale: @sarahinthesen8 spied on, @GillianTriggs attacked, kids pushed to self-harm, told all that matters is we stop the boats”
[Stopping the boats has improved Australia’s relations with Indonesia, Prime Minister Tony Abbott claimed on Tuesday]
The Clown Circus CEO, Captain Chaos, also declared that the sun rose in the west and set in the east and that coal is renewable energy because trees that are grown today will be available as coal in 500 million years.
“@shanebazzi: .@RichardDiNatale: we are now engaging in the people trafficking business. Enough is enough.”
guytaur @ 272
As the Troll reminded us earlier, the killing season is upon us once more.
But the stupid ass missed the salient fact that the prey are all in the Liberal Party.
“@shanebazzi: .@RichardDiNatale: good people on both sides need to stand up and say ‘no more’ #asylum”
“@shanebazzi: .@RichardDiNatale: we have a PM who says that black is white and white is black. It’s not good enough.”
@jrajca: Indonesia isn’t happy at Julie Bishop (via AAP) #auspol https://t.co/0qRbWdYC2u
Whether the story ‘dies’ or not is not up to our government, our media or even the Opposition.
It didn’t originate with any of them. It came from Indonesia – and now the UN is involved.
Indonesia has no particular reason to like this government. It has several good reasons to cause it as much embarrassment as possible.
The UN doesn’t have any particular reason to treat this government with even grudging respect.
Internally, too, the issue has the potential to cause the Liberals damage. I don’t think Mesma – for example – would be overly impressed if Morrison or Dutton were aware of what was going on and she wasn’t. (I even suspect that even if she was aware of what was going on, she wouldn’t have approved).
If Indonesia or the UN decide to press the issue further, then it has legs, regardless.
davidwh
[ No one here has ever seen me post anything supporting the current border protection policies because simply I don’t. ]
As I keep saying – you aren’t the type of person the ALP could ever convince, or on whom they should waste effort trying.
So just carry on with the tired old “both sides are the same, so why bother?” arguments.
This is horrible! I must act to stop this terrible situation!
*opens Twitter
*composes series of ranty tweets to Greens Senator
Man, I’m such a great activist.
“@KnottMatthew: Shorten told caucus what Bishop & Dutton are doing re paying boats either ‘incompetent or dishonest’”
Guytaur #269
Agree. A reminder about ASIS and the law from the High Court in A v Hayden http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/cases/cth/HCA/1984/67.html
I dont know whether Aust anti terrorism law covers handing money over on the high seas – anyone ? – but preparations to do so within Australia would definitely be covered
zoomster – Abbott would probably welcome a chance to “stand up for Australia’s security” against the Indonesians and those meddlers at the UN.
[Look, I think TBA is probably a fair representation of the average Australian. ]
No he’s not.
While I agree this place is an echo chamber and many people here are putting their heads in the sand by seeking reassurance from each other, TBA is a partisan hack. As I keep saying, just because you’re in the minority here and get abused by some Labor rusted-on, it doesn’t necessarily make your viewpoint any more correct.
TBA parrots catchphrases almost verbatim and often spews almost perfectly scripted rhetoric. While he can be more in step with the general view of the population at times, at other times he is completely out of step – just as the die-hards here can be. That is what happens when you are a hardline partisan/ideologue.
A quick scanning of the comments section of that Fairfax article indicates it’s achieving its presumably desired effect. Overwhelmingly “they’re as bad as each other” with a leavening of pro Abbott triumphalism.
Triumphal about what, I’m not sure.
Actually on border protection both sides weren’t the same until July 2013. In June 2010 Rudd warned Labor about following the LNP down the slippery-slide on the issue but they ignored his warning. Then in July 2013 Rudd himself climbed the ladder and followed all before him.
That’s political pragmatism unfortunately.
MM – even if you can get a “preparation to commit a crime” argument up for something that will end up not actually being illegal, the A-G is never going to authorise a prosecution and the media aren’t going to pursue a distinction that fine.
Nobody is going to run a “ASIS PUT MONEY IN ENVELOPES – MAJOR CRIME” headline with the story “but actually giving the money to people smugglers wasn’t illegal”.
teh_drewski
[ zoomster – Abbott would probably welcome a chance to “stand up for Australia’s security” against the Indonesians and those meddlers at the UN. ]
Let’s not forget that one of Tony’s mentors – Maurice Newman -thinks the UN is behind a conspiracy to “end democracy”.
How ironic!
“@lanesainty: Can’t believe Barnaby Joyce has once again publicly advocated for the killing of all dogs”
“@lanesainty: Is publicly threatening to kill dogs now a political tactic?”
“@lanesainty: tough on terror, tough on terriers”
David 289
One positive side to Labor being in opposition is that I don’t have to witness many here fall over themselves to justify cruel, disgusting asylum seeker policies. Well, there’s still an element to that but it’s a lot weaker than it was when it was Labor in power.
Someone make a “Abbott on ISIS or Barnaby on Wild Dogs” quiz and stick it on Buzzfeed, pageviews for days.
There’s a worrying sense of defeatism among many Labor supporters which mirrors the ALPs lack of tactical acumen.
FFS if Labor can’t skewer the govt on this one they don’t deserve to be in the game. And how come all the best lines seem to come from the Greens?
“@sspencer_63: Joyce redefining Cabinet solidarity. Arguing as a Nat he has the right to announce his own foreign ownership views. #grownupgovt”
[ guytaur
Posted Tuesday, June 16, 2015 at 11:50 am | Permalink
“@lanesainty: Can’t believe Barnaby Joyce has once again publicly advocated for the killing of all dogs”
]
….but if he succeeds, then who will the LNP have to whistle to ?????
Cats?
Carey 293 🙂
@swearyanthony: Indonesia: we’re really pissed off.
Abbott: no you’re not.